How does a president most Americans don’t believe is fit to serve run for reelection?
Byron York
HOW DOES A PRESIDENT MOST AMERICANS DON’T BELIEVE IS FIT TO SERVE RUN FOR REELECTION? A few days ago, this newsletter looked at the dramatic finding of a new ABC News-Washington Post poll that 63% of registered voters do not believe 80-year-old President Joe Biden is mentally or physically up to the job of president of the United States.
In response to two questions — “Do you think Biden has the mental sharpness it takes to serve effectively as president, or not?” and “Do you think Biden is in good enough physical health to serve as president, or not?” — 63% said Biden does not have the mental sharpness to serve, and 62% said he is not in good enough physical health to serve.
Those answers lead to another question: When voters believe that, how does a president run for reelection? The fundamental voter concern is that, at 80, Biden is already too old to be president. He will be 82 in 2024 and, if reelected, will serve until he is 86. On what basis would voters vote to keep him in office?
Plus, there’s another factor to consider. Who will Biden run against? If he runs against Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL), who is 36 years younger than Biden, there is nothing Biden can do to neutralize the age matter. If he runs against former Gov. Nikki Haley (R-SC), who is 29 years younger than Biden, there is nothing he can do. If he runs against Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC), who is 23 years younger, there is nothing he can do. Even if he runs against former Vice President Mike Pence, after former President Donald Trump the most senior Republican in the race but 17 years younger than Biden, there is nothing he can do.
You get the idea. Of course, all those Republicans are currently far, far behind Trump in the race for the GOP nomination. Since Trump will be 78 years old in 2024 and, if elected, would serve until he is 82, there are serious age concerns about him, too.
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But there is bad news for Biden on the age matter, even when compared to Trump. The short version is that voters see Trump as more vigorous than Biden. When asked if Trump has the mental sharpness to serve, 54% said yes, and when asked if Trump is in good enough physical health to serve, 64% said yes. So even though Trump as president would be as old as Biden is now — and it is a gamble for voters to bet Trump will remain in good enough health to serve — more voters think he is fundamentally capable of being president than Biden.
And besides, how could Biden use age against Trump in a campaign? Of course, he can’t.
There is another complicating factor in a Biden vs. Trump race. On what will likely be the most important topic in voters’ minds, the economy, voters give Trump the edge over Biden. The ABC-Washington Post pollsters asked, “Who do you think did a better job handling the economy, Donald Trump when he was president or Joe Biden during his presidency so far?” Fifty-four percent said Trump, while 36% said Biden. That’s a clear advantage for Trump.
Given all that, what does Biden do? In a race against any non-Trump Republican, he suffers terribly from the age difference. That alone might defeat him. In a race against Trump, he still suffers, although less so, from the age problem, plus he is on the losing end of what is likely to be the race’s most important matter. It’s a bleak picture. What to do?
Biden has already revealed the answer: Cast Trump as a MAGA threat to the future, the very existence, of the U.S. and democracy itself. Or, should Trump not be his opponent, portray any other Republican as a Trump-like MAGA threat to the future, the very existence, of the U.S. and democracy itself.
Democrats gave the strategy a test run in 2022, with significant success. Yes, the Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v. Wade was an important factor working against Republicans in some races. And yes, individual candidate qualities in hundreds of House and Senate races played a role. But the anti-MAGA argument — the accusation that Republicans posed a MAGA threat to the future, the very existence, of the U.S. and democracy itself — was a winner for Democrats.
During the midterm elections, one Democratic strategist, Simon Rosenberg, was a lonely voice arguing that there would not be a red wave, that, in fact, the “anti-MAGA majority” would turn out to save the day for Democrats. As it happened, Democrats did lose the House, although by a smaller margin than predicted, but they actually picked up a seat in the Senate on the strength of that “anti-MAGA majority.”
In 2024, the presence of an “anti-MAGA majority,” should one exist, could be Biden’s last chance. How else could an 82-year-old man, visibly slow in his mental and physical abilities, win reelection when a majority of people don’t think he’s up to the job? With that always in mind, Biden and his party will run against MAGA, no matter who their GOP adversary is.
One last thing. An anti-MAGA campaign will be a very, very ugly campaign. There will be daily slanders, daily outrages, and daily combat. Republicans and conservatives who rankle at being called Nazis and fascists and traitors and insurrectionists and authoritarians and much, much more should be prepared. It will be hard to take. But if Biden is on the ballot in November 2024, it will be his best, and perhaps only, hope.
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