BIDEN RELENTS, SORT OF: Three weeks after Russian forces launched a cross-border assault into the northeastern Kharkiv region of Ukraine, President Joe Biden has authorized a narrow exception to the ban on the use of U.S.-supplied weapons against targets on Russian soil.
In response to pleas from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and growing pressure from NATO allies, Biden has agreed that Ukraine can use some U.S. weapons to defend Ukraine’s second-largest city, which is under threat from the Russian offensive that began May 10.
“The president recently directed his team to ensure that Ukraine is able to use U.S.-supplied weapons for counterfire purposes in the Kharkiv region so Ukraine can hit back against Russian forces that are attacking them or preparing to attack them,” a State Department official told the Washington Examiner yesterday. “Our policy with respect to prohibiting the use of ATACMS or long-range strikes inside of Russia has not changed.”
The reference to ATACMS, the long-range missile system recently provided to Ukraine, left unclear whether ATACMS could not be used at all for cross-border strikes or were only prohibited for deeper strikes elsewhere in Russia. It seemed to indicate that Ukraine might be limited to using the HIMARS launchers that fire shorter-range GMLRS rockets.
The policy statement also made no mention of Ukraine’s use of Patriot missile air defenses to shoot down Russian planes in Russian airspace.
BIDEN GREENLIGHTS UKRAINE TO USE US WEAPONS TO HIT TARGETS IN RUSSIA
ISW: RUSSIA STILL HAS ‘PARTIAL SANCTUARY’: “It is unclear how far into Belgorod Oblast the U.S. is permitting Ukrainian forces to strike with US-provided weapons, or if Ukraine would be allowed to strike Russian force and equipment concentrations in Kursk and Bryansk oblasts,” the Institute for the Study of War said in its latest analysis. “Russia still enjoys some sanctuary in which the Russian military can shield military forces before they get close enough to Kharkiv, or enter other parts of Ukraine.”
The Washington-based think tank continues to advocate a policy that would allow Ukraine to strike any legitimate military targets anywhere in Russia with any weapons it has. “Russia will continue to benefit from any partial sanctuary so long as Western states continue to impose restrictions on Ukraine’s ability to defend itself,” the ISW said.
POLICY SHIFT WEEKS IN THE MAKING: Zelensky asked for permission from the Biden administration a few days after Russia launched its offensive and just before Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrived for a visit in Kyiv.
National security adviser Jake Sullivan, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, and Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr. agreed to recommend a policy shift to Biden, according to the Washington Post.
“Sullivan took the recommendation to the president two days later, as Blinken was departing Kyiv, and Biden agreed to it that same day, May 15,” according to the report, which cited an unnamed administration official. “Blinken, meeting Biden later that week after his Ukraine trip, agreed that the shift made sense, the official said, adding that Biden asked for top officials to work through the details and the risks before a final approval.”
Biden reportedly signed off on the new policy a few days ago, and it went into effect yesterday. In recent days, Blinken and other administration officials hinted the change was coming. “As the conditions have changed, as the battlefield has changed, as what Russia does has changed in terms of how it’s pursuing its aggression, escalation, we’ve adapted and adjusted, too,” Blinken said earlier this week in Moldova. “We’re always listening, we’re always learning, and we’re always making determinations about what’s necessary to make sure that Ukraine can effectively continue to defend itself.”
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HAPPENING TODAY: Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin is in Singapore attending the Shangri-La Dialogue and is scheduled to deliver a major speech on U.S. Indo-Pacific policy at 8:35 p.m. Eastern time, which is 8:35 a.m. tomorrow in Singapore. The speech will be livestreamed on the Pentagon’s website.
Austin met yesterday with his Chinese counterpart, Adm. Dong Jun, on the sidelines of the conference, and according to a Pentagon readout, he “expressed concern about recent provocative PLA activity around the Taiwan Strait” and “made clear that the United States will continue to fly, sail, and operate — safely and responsibly — wherever international law allows.”
Austin “reiterated that the PRC should not use Taiwan’s political transition — part of a normal, routine democratic process — as a pretext for coercive measures” and “underscored the importance of respect for high seas freedom of navigation guaranteed under international law, especially in the South China Sea.”
China’s Defense Ministry gave no readout of the discussion, releasing a terse one-sentence statement noting the meeting took place.
IN ‘PUNISHMENT DRILLS,’ CHINA STAGES DRESS REHEARSAL OF MILITARY ASSAULT ON TAIWAN
DIA: N. KOREA MISSILES ‘ENABLING’ RUSSIA IN UKRAINE: In an unclassified report titled North Korea: Enabling missile strikes against Ukraine, the Pentagon’s Defense Intelligence Agency documented how Kim Jong Un’s regime has been providing ballistic missiles to Russia since November of last year and provided photographic evidence of Russia’s use of the missiles in Ukraine.
“Through careful analysis of open-source imagery DIA analysts confirms the debris found in Kharkiv on Jan. 2, 2024 is missile debris from a DPRK [Democratic People’s Republic of Korea] short-range missile,” the DIA said in a release accompanying the report.
The report highlighted Pyongyang’s growing relationship with Moscow and North Korea’s rapidly expanding missile capabilities. “The Kim regime remains willing to provide ballistic missiles to countries for use in furthering conflicts, exemplified by its shipment of dozens of ballistic missiles to Russia to sustain Moscow’s ongoing conflict against Ukraine,” the report said. “Since the beginning of the DPRK’s missile program, Pyongyang has sold ballistic missile technology, including full systems and components.” In the past, it has sold ballistic missiles or missile technology to at least Burma, Iran, Libya, Syria, and Yemen.
“The DPRK is further expanding its missile program, increasing the sophistication and reliability of its weapons, while demonstrating a willingness to provide ballistic missiles for use in war,” the report noted. “DPRK leader Kim Jong Un announced an ambitious military modernization plan, prominently featuring missile development goals as a regime priority. Since then, the DPRK has repeatedly highlighted its missile production, and it probably has the capability to produce hundreds of missiles of all major system classes in the coming years.”
US CONFIRMS RUSSIA USED NORTH KOREAN BALLISTIC MISSILES IN UKRAINE
US: N. KOREA MISSILE LAUNCHES ‘UNDERMINE STABILITY AND SECURITY’: The U.S. continues to condemn North Korea’s missile launches in violation of multiple United Nations Security Council resolutions, and Pyongyang continues to ignore those protests.
The latest protest from the State Department comes after launches on May 27 and May 29, including a failed effort to put a spy satellite in orbit. “These launches continue the DPRK’s reckless behavior, which poses a grave threat to the Korean Peninsula, the region, and international peace and security and undermine the global non-proliferation regime,” State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said in a statement.
“We will continue to work closely with the international community to disrupt the DPRK’s illicit revenue generation, which supports its UNSCR-prohibited weapons programs through the exploitation of overseas workers and malicious cyber activities,” he added.
NEW MUNITIONS FACTORY CHURNING OUT ARTILLERY SHELLS: The Pentagon is touting a new state-of-the-art munitions factory in Mesquite, Texas, that it said will dramatically increase the production of 155 mm artillery shells, which are being consumed at a prodigious rate in Ukraine.
“We are building new production lines across the country, and we are expanding our contracts with existing production facilities to increase their production speed and capacity,” Army Secretary Christine Wormuth said at an opening ceremony for the Universal Artillery Projectile Lines facility.
“This facility, which will be operated by General Dynamics Ordnance and Tactical Systems, will help the Army meet its modernization goals by incorporating high levels of automation, modern manufacturing practices, and digital data capturability,” Sabrina Singh, deputy Pentagon press secretary, said at yesterday’s briefing. “These efforts will significantly strengthen U.S. munition production capabilities and will serve as a credible deterrent to adversaries. This new facility underscores the Army and industry’s commitment to bolstering the defense industrial base and maintaining the readiness of our armed forces.”
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THE RUNDOWN:
Washington Examiner: Biden greenlights Ukraine to use US weapons to hit targets in Russia
Washington Examiner: US confirms Russia used North Korean ballistic missiles in Ukraine
Washington Examiner: Israel seizes Philadelphi Corridor: What is it and why is it significant?
Washington Examiner: In ‘punishment drills,’ China stages dress rehearsal of military assault on Taiwan
Washington Examiner: Mexican mayoral candidate assassinated while greeting supporters at rally
Military.com: Unprotected: Troops Spent Decades Elbow-Deep in Dangerous Chemicals to Keep Nuclear Missiles Working
Washington Post: As Ukraine Stumbles In War, Kyiv And Western Powers Struggle To Coordinate
Reuters: Hamas Says It Is Ready For A ‘Complete Agreement’ If Israel Stops War
New York Times: Egypt Faces Hard Choices After Israeli Seizure Of Gaza’s Southern Border
AP: U.S. And Britain Strike Houthi Rebel Targets In Yemen After Surge In Shipping Attacks
AP: Ship Attacked By Yemen’s Houthi Rebels Was Full Of Grain Bound For Iran, The Group’s Main Benefactor
Bloomberg: U.S.-China Defense Chiefs Praise Talks Despite Continuing Tensions
Reuters: China’s Defense Ministry Condemns U.S. Missile Deployment In Philippines
Wall Street Journal: How America Inadvertently Created an ‘Axis of Evasion’ Led by China
Defense News: Behind the Scenes of the Pentagon’s Race to Aid in Taiwan’s Defense
AP: US Military Defends Africa Strategy in Light of Coups and a Drift Toward Russia
Breaking Defense: U.S. Marines Buy 200 Tactical Robots From Israel’s Roboteam Amid All-Time High Demand: CEO
Air & Space Forces Magazine: VP at USAFA Graduation: ‘Our Adversaries Fear America’s Dominance in the Air’
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Is a Cyber Force Next? Lawmakers Want Independent Study
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Even After F-35’s TR-3 Software is Approved, Frequent Patches May Be Needed
The War Zone: Enclosures to Defend F-15Es From Drone Attacks Eyed at Seymour Johnson AFB
Defense One: Pentagon Bets $480m on AI-Fueled Intel Platform
Inside Defense: Sentinel SLP-A Finds FY25 New-Start Backing in Draft Legislation
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Air Force Investigating After KC-135 Landing Gear Retracts While Parked
SpaceNews: AI Startup Wallaroo Tapped to Help Space Force Operationalize Machine Learning
THE CALENDAR:
FRIDAY | MAY 31
10 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW — Wilson Center Global Europe Program discussion: “How to Defeat an Autocracy? Lessons from Ukraine’s Defense Against Russia’s Invasion,” with former Ukrainian Minister of Defense Oleksii Reznikov and Mariana Budjeryn, senior research associate at Harvard University’s Project on Managing the Atom https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/how-defeat-autocracy