MISSED HIM BY THAT MUCH: It’s unclear if Russia was tracking the movements of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky when a Russian missile landed too close for comfort as his convoy, which was also carrying Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, made its way through the port city of Odesa on the Black Sea on Wednesday.
“We were ending this presentation and, I mean, boarding the cars in the motorcade when we saw the strike actually,” Igor Zhovkva, an adviser to Zelensky, told CNN. “It really was less than 500 meters from us. What was that? You cannot exclude anything with these insane people who are striking every day, every night, every corner of my country. So you cannot exclude it was directed at the delegation of my president or at the delegation of the foreign guests.”
The Russian Defense Ministry claimed the missile was aimed at a legitimate military target, a hangar where it claimed Ukrainian forces were preparing naval drones for attacks on Russian ships, like the one that sank the Sergey Kotov overnight on Tuesday. Ukrainian officials said five people were killed in the strike on “port infrastructure,” with the missile landing a mere 500 meters or so from Zelensky’s motorcade.
“We saw the strike today. You can see who we are dealing with. They don’t care where they strike,” Zelensky said afterward. “I know that there are dead and wounded. We need to defend ourselves, first and foremost. The best way to do that is with an air defense system.”
RUSSIAN MISSILE STRIKE ALMOST KILLS ZELENSKY AND NATO ALLY
RUSSIA CONTINUES TO GAIN GROUND SLOWLY: “Russian forces have continued attacks intended to expand control around the town of Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine which Russia seized in May 2023,” the British Defense Ministry said in its latest intelligence update. “Its forces have advanced to occupy eastern parts of the village of Ivanivske, and are attacking Ukrainian positions Bohdanivka.”
“Russia’s immediate operational objective is almost certainly to seize Chasiv Yar, located approximately 5 kilometers from the front line,” the assessment said, concluding it’s “highly unlikely” that Russian forces will be able to attempt a full-scale assault on the town.”
Meanwhile, a separate assessment from the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War said Ukrainian Ground Forces Commander Lt. Gen. Oleksandr Pavliuk is planning for “unspecified counteroffensive actions” in an attempt to “stabilize the front line while degrading Russian forces.”
Pavliuk conceded the Russian forces are trying to maintain a relatively high tempo of offensive operations in the direction of Chasiv Yar, but he said they are suffering significant losses and predicts that Ukraine will be able to stabilize the front line in the near future, according to the ISW.
UKRAINE STILL WAITING FOR AMMO: While the European Union and other Ukrainian allies are scrambling to find and ship artillery shells to Ukraine that were promised a year ago, the stalled $60 billion in U.S. aid bill continues to force Ukrainian commanders to ration their dwindling supplies of ammunition.
“Continued delays in Western security assistance will likely postpone Ukrainian efforts to regain the theater-wide initiative,” the ISW concluded. “Shortages are forcing Ukrainian forces to husband materiel and uncertainty about future assistance is likely constraining Ukrainian operational planning.”
“Delays in crucial assistance will force Ukraine to make difficult decisions about how to allocate resources between future operationally significant counteroffensive operations and ongoing Ukrainian defensive operations against Russian attackers who currently hold the initiative.”
UKRAINE AID ON SHAKY GROUND AS HOUSE LAWMAKERS WRESTLE ON PATH FORWARD
Good Thursday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Stacey Dec. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow me on Threads and/or on X @jamiejmcintyre
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HAPPENING TODAY: President Joe Biden delivers the State of the Union address to a joint session of Congress in the House chamber at 9 p.m., followed shortly afterward by a Republican response by Sen. Katie Britt (R-AL).
“The president … will speak about the historic achievements he has delivered for the American people and his vision for the future,” the White House said.
“You hired me to get the job done, build an economy that works for working people, and make life better for families,” Biden said on social media. “Tomorrow, I’ll update you on our progress and lay out the path ahead.”
“My administration has accomplished more over three years than most presidents have in eight — from investing in infrastructure and lowering healthcare costs to abolishing junk fees, making the wealthy pay their fair share, and fighting for women’s reproductive healthcare,” Biden said in a preview of his remarks. “That includes lowering prescription drug prices for every American, getting student debt relief to hardworking borrowers, restoring a woman’s right to choose, and banning assault weapons and high-capacity magazines.”
STATE OF THE UNION 2024: BIDEN PLAYS UP ‘SHRINKFLATION’ — WHAT TO KNOW
TRUMP SAYS HE’LL FACT-CHECK BIDEN IN REAL TIME: On his Truth Social media site, former President Donald Trump announced he plans to counterprogram Biden’s speech with a streaming feed in which he will dispute Biden’s claims of success.
“I am pleased to inform you that tomorrow night we will be doing a LIVE, Play by Play, of Crooked Joe Biden’s State of the Union Address,” Trump posted yesterday afternoon. “I will correct, in rapid response, any and all inaccurate Statements, especially pertaining to the Border and his Weaponization of the DOJ, FBI, A.G.s, and District Attorneys, to go after his Political Opponent, ME (something never done before in this Country!).”
“We did this once before to tremendous success — Beating All Records. It is important for the Country to get the TRUTH!” Trump boasted in his trademark style of random capitalization and inventive punctuation.
STATE OF THE UNION 2024: TRUMP WILL ‘CORRECT’ BIDEN’S ADDRESS IN LIVE ‘PLAY-BY-PLAY’
ALSO TODAY: US-HOUTHI WAR SCRUTINIZED: The Senate Armed Services Committee this morning is holding what is usually a routine hearing on the budget needs of the U.S. Central and Africa commands for the next budget year.
But with the four-star commanders of both commands appearing before the committee, you can expect the inability of the U.S. and its coalition partners to stop Houthi attacks on international shipping in the Red Sea to be among the senators’ top concerns.
While the U.S. continues to conduct “self-defense” strikes against the drone and missile launchers of the Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen, the Houthi attacks on ships in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden have been undeterred and yesterday turned deadly for the first time, when a Houthi anti-ship ballistic missile “hit a Barbados-flagged, Liberian-owned bulk carrier. “
“The missile struck the vessel, and the multinational crew reports three fatalities, at least four injuries, of which three are in critical condition, and significant damage to the ship,” the U.S. Central Command said in a news release. “The crew abandoned the ship and coalition warships responded and are assessing the situation.”
“This is the fifth [anti-ship ballistic missile] fired by Houthis in the last two days,” CENTCOM noted. “Two of these ASBMs impacted two shipping vessels — M/V MSC Sky II and M/V True Confidence — and one ASBM was shot down by USS Carney.”
Army Gen. Michael Kurilla, commander of the CENTCOM, and Marine Corps Gen. Michael Langley, commander of the U.S. Africa Command, testify at 10 a.m. The hearing will be livestreamed on the Pentagon website as well as the committee’s webpage.
HOUTHI ATTACK RESULTS IN FIRST KNOWN FATALITIES
THE MINIBUS HAS LEFT THE STATION: After vowing never again to bundle appropriations bills into one giant “omnibus” legislation, House GOP members had to bow to the realities of passing legislation in a divided Congress and yesterday approved six budget bills that had been combined into one $450 billion “minibus” in order to avert a partial government shutdown tomorrow.
The minibus, which will fund the departments of Veterans Affairs, Agriculture, Interior, Transportation, Housing and Urban Development, Justice, Commerce, and Energy, passed 339-85, with the help of 207 Democrats, showing once again Republicans cannot pass legislation in the House with Republican votes alone.
The bill now goes to the Senate, where Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) has promised to get it to the president’s desk in time for Biden to sign it and avert a shutdown. The deadline for the next six bills, which includes money for the Pentagon, is March 22.
AN HONOR DEVOUTLY TO BE WISHED: I have to admit I’m a bit envious of my Washington Examiner colleague Tom Rogan, who has had bestowed on him an honor that ranks right up there with the Nobel Prize or the Presidential Medal of Freedom.
Rogan, both online editor and foreign policy writer for the Washington Examiner, earned the distinction for writing about Russian President Vladimir Putin’s murder-assassination efforts, his war in Ukraine, his disdain for innocent life, and in particular certain bridges that Russia needs to supply its war effort. For this, Rogan has been placed on a terrorist list, and a warrant has been issued for his arrest by the Russian Defense Ministry.
“I presume the intent of this arrest warrant, which follows my listing on Russia’s terrorist database two weeks ago, is twofold. First, to intimidate me,” Rogan writes in an essay published today. “The second intent of this arrest warrant is to intimidate other Western journalists into avoiding coverage that upsets the Kremlin.”
“But it won’t work with most,” Rogan writes. “As many far better journalists than I, Ivan Golunov, Anna Politkovskaya, Bellingcat, and Clarissa Ward have shown investigative journalism is critical and well read.”
You can read Rogan’s essay at the link below, and I should mention that his boss and mine, Washington Examiner editor-in-chief Hugo Gurdon, is also listed as a terrorist by Russia.
‘Tis an honor devoutly to be wished.
OPINION: I GUESS THE HERMITAGE MUSEUM TRIP IS OFF
THE RUNDOWN:
Washington Examiner: Russian missile strike almost kills Zelensky and NATO ally
Washington Examiner: Houthi attack results in first known fatalities
Washington Examiner: House passes first appropriations bills ahead of shutdown deadline
Washington Examiner: Ukraine aid on shaky ground as House lawmakers wrestle on path forward
Washington Examiner: Gallagher says bipartisan TikTok bill is not a ban
Washington Examiner: Former Google engineer charged with stealing AI secrets for Chinese companies
Washington Examiner: Gaza Ceasefire negotiations continue, but breakthroughs appear elusive
Washington Examiner: Opinion: I guess the Hermitage Museum trip is off
Washington Examiner: State of the Union 2024: Trump will ‘correct’ Biden’s address in live ‘play-by-play’
Washington Examiner: State of the Union 2024: Biden plays up ‘shrinkflation’ — what to know
Washington Examiner: Russia contemplates ‘assistance’ to proxy separatists in Moldova
Bloomberg: Biden to Seek 1% Increase in 2025 Defense Budget Under Cap
Washington Times: China building new generation of mobile ICBMs
AP: US diplomat criticizes China for using coercion and intimidation as it presses maritime claims
Reuters: China Steps Up Grey-Zone Warfare To Exhaust Taiwan, Defence Report Says
Defense News: India Plans to Spend $3 Billion on Space. Can It Catch up to China?
Politico: Iran Proxy Attacks on US Troops in Iraq, Syria Drop Off as Red Sea Heats Up
AP: Pressure grows on Israel to open more aid routes into Gaza by land and sea as hunger worsens
Breaking Defense: Why Sending A U.S. Navy Hospital Ship To Gaza Would Be Very Difficult But ‘Not Impossible’
Wall Street Journal: Gaza Negotiations At Perilous Point
Washington Post: Israel’s war zone awash in U.S. arms
Wall Street Journal: Ukraine Enters New Phase Of War With Russia: Dig, Dig, Dig
Navy Times: The Sea Drone That’s Lifting Ukraine Morale As It Hunts Russian Ships
AP: Few Americans want US more involved in current wars in Ukraine and Gaza, AP-NORC poll finds
Air Force Times: Space Force Reimagines Training, Operations as Conflicts Intensify
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Acquisition Reformers: Pentagon Can Achieve ‘Quick Wins’ in Multiyear Overhaul
Inside Defense: FY-25 Rollout Sidelines Missile Defense Agency, ‘De-Emphasizing’ Budget Day
SpaceNews: Planet Labs Gets US Navy Contract for Maritime Surveillance in the Pacific
The War Zone: Pulsejet Drone Flies, Could Have Big Impact on Cost of Future Weapons
Breaking Defense: Lawmakers Press Army Aviation Leadership on FARA Cancelation
Defense One: The Military Is Funding New Chip Designs for the AI Era
Washington Post: State Department urges Haiti’s prime minister to resign
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Air Force Looking Outside the Box to Keep Its Bases Powered Up
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Link 16, Laser Comms, ‘At Least One’ More Launch: 2024 Heats Up for SDA
DefenseScoop: Pentagon IG Office Shares New Details about Its Unfolding Evaluation of CDAO’s Effectiveness
Air & Space Forces Magazine: B-52 and B-1 Bombers Fly with Gripens over Stockholm
19fortyfive.com: Military Aid To Ukraine: A Necessity Beyond Negotiated Settlements
19fortyfive.com: How Western Troops Could Be Sent To Ukraine And Not Start World War III
The Cipher Brief: America’s Food Supply Has a Cyber Problem
The Cipher Brief: The Cat-and-Mouse Game of Preventing Drone Nightmares
THE CALENDAR:
THURSDAY | MARCH 7
7:30 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW — McAleese and Associates 15th annual Defense Programs Conference, with (in order of appearance) Rep. Adam Smith (D-WA), House Armed Services Committee ranking member; Gabe Camarillo, undersecretary of the Army; Andrew Hunter, assistant Air Force secretary for acquisition, technology, and logistics; Army chief of staff Gen. Randy George; William LaPlante, undersecretary of defenses for acquisition and sustainment; Air Force chief of staff Gen. David Allvin; Nickolas Guertin, assistant Navy secretary for research, development, and acquisition; Rep. Robert Wittman (R-VA); Navy Secretary Carlos Del Toro; Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Lisa Franchetti; Lt. Gen. Heath Collins, director, Missile Defense Agency; Vice Chief of Space Operations Gen. Michael Guetlein; Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA); and Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall https://mcaleese.com/
9 a.m. HVC-210, U.S. Capitol — House Select Committee on Strategic Competition Between the United States and the Chinese Communist Party hearing: “Growing Stakes: The Bioeconomy and American National Security” https://selectcommitteeontheccp.house.gov
9 a.m. 1800 Presidents St., Reston, Virginia — GovCIO Media & Research CyberScape Summit 2024, with Jane Rathbun, chief information officer of the Department of the Navy; Robert Costello, chief information officer of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency; Randy Resnick, director of the Defense Department’s Zero Trust Portfolio Management Office; Andy Stewart, national security and government senior strategist for cybersecurity at Cisco; Frank Indiviglio, chief technology officer of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration; Scott St. Pierre, principal cyber adviser for the Department of the Navy; Phil Stupak, assistant national cyber director in the Office of the National Cyber Director; Vincent Sritapan, section chief of Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency’s Cybersecurity Shared Service Office; Cynthia Kaiser, deputy assistant director with the FBI Cyber Division; Scott Braus, director of cybersecurity operations at the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau; and Tom Schankweiler, director of cybersecurity operations at the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services https://govciomedia.com/cyberscape-summit
9 a.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. NW — Hudson Institute discussion: “Growing Expectations for the U.S.-Japan Alliance,” with former Japanese national security adviser Shigeru Kitamura; Marine Corps Brig. Gen. James Wellons, assistant deputy commandant for programs and headquarters; Sugio Takahashi, director of policy studies at the Japan National Institute for Defense Studies; and Kenneth Weinstein, Japan chairman at the Hudson Institute https://www.hudson.org/events/growing-expectations-us-japan-alliance
9:30 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “What’s Going on in South Korea?” with Scott Snyder, director of the Council on Foreign Relations Program on U.S.-Korea Policy; Sue Mi Terry, senior adviser at Macro Advisory Partners; and Mark Lippert, CSIS Korea chairman https://www.csis.org/events/whats-going-south-korea-capital-cable-89
10 a.m. 216 Hart — Senate Armed Services Committee hearing: “The posture of U.S. Central Command and U.S. Africa Command in review of the Defense Authorization Request for FY2025 and the Future Years Defense Program,” with testimony from Marine Corps Gen. Michael Langley, commander, U.S. Africa Commandm and Army Gen. Michael Kurilla, commander, U.S. Central Command http://www.armed-services.senate.gov
12:30 p.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: “Special operations forces in an era of strategic competition,” with Christopher Maier, assistant secretary of defense for special operations and low intensity conflict https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/special-operations-forces
2 p.m. 2141 Rayburn — House Judiciary Immigration Integrity, Security, and Enforcement Subcommittee hearing: “Presidential Power to Secure the Border” https://judiciary.house.gov/committee-activity/hearings
2:30 p.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Military Personnel Subcommittee hearing: “Department of Defense Monitoring of COVID-19,” with testimony from Lester Martinez Lopez, assistant secretary of defense for health affairs, and Shauna Stahlman, senior epidemiologist in the Epidemiology and Analysis Branch in the Defense Health Agency’s Armed Forces Health Surveillance Division http://www.armedservices.house.gov
4 p.m. 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace discussion: “Evaluating the West’s Ukraine Strategy in 2024,” with Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Olha Stefanishyna https://carnegieendowment.org/2024/03/07/evaluating-west-s-ukraine-strategy
4:30 p.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. NW — Hudson Institute discussion: “Aiding America’s Frontline Allies: The View from Israel and Ukraine,” with former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, Hudson fellow, and Michael Doran, director of the Hudson Center for Peace and Security in the Middle East https://www.hudson.org/events/aiding-america-frontline-allies-view-israel-ukraine
9 p.m. House Chamber, U.S. Capitol — President Joe Biden delivers the State of the Union address to a joint session of Congress
9:30 p.m. — Sen. Katie Britt (R-AL) gives the Republican address to the nation following the president’s State of the Union address
FRIDAY | MARCH 8
TUESDAY | MARCH 13
7:15 a.m. 2425 Wilson Blvd., Arlington, Virginia — Association of the U.S. Army “Coffee Series,” with Gen. Charles Hamilton, commanding general of U.S. Army Materiel Command https://www.ausa.org/events/coffee-serie/gen-hamilton
MONDAY | MARCH 18
7:15 a.m. — Association of the U.S. Army “Coffee Series,” with Army budget leaders Kirsten Taylor, deputy assistant Army secretary for plans, programs, and resources; Maj. Gen. Mark Bennett, director of the Army budget; and Maj. Gen. Joseph Hilbert, director of force development in the office of the deputy Army chief of staff for resources and plans https://www.ausa.org/events/coffee-series/mg-bennett
TUESDAY | MARCH 20
10 a.m. — Counter Extremism Project webinar: “Cruel And Unusual Punishment — How The Houthis Target Women, Journalists And Religious Minorities,” with Edmund Fitton-Brown, CEP senior adviser; Nura al Jarwi, president, Association for the Protection of Violated Women and Survivors of Houthi Prisons; and Hans-Jakob Schindler, senior director, CEP Counter Extremism Project https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register