UK MOD: RUSSIA SUFFERS RECORD CASUALTIES: Over the weekend, the British Defense Ministry released an intelligence assessment that concluded during offensive operations in February the Russian military suffered a staggering casualty rate of nearly 1,000 troops a day, reflecting Russian President Vladimir Putin’s disregard for the lives of his soldiers.
“The average number of Russian casualties killed and wounded in Ukraine throughout February 2024 was the highest rate it has been since the start of the war, at 983 per day,” according to the assessment posted on X on Sunday. “The increase in the daily average almost certainly reflects Russia’s commitment to mass and attritional warfare.”
The assessment also estimated that since the war began two years ago, Russia’s losses equal or exceed its initial invasion force of 130 battalion tactical groups of roughly 100,000 troops and 1,300 tanks. “In two years of conflict, Russian losses match, and in many cases surpass, those that comprised its original force,” the British Defense Ministry said in a separate post that put Russia’s losses to date at 2,700 tanks, 5,000 armored vehicles, and more than 355,000 killed and wounded.
“Although costly in terms of human life the resulting effect has increased the pressure on Ukraine’s positions across the front line,” the assessment concluded.
ZELENSKY: ‘WE ARE WAITING FOR VITAL SUPPLIES’: In his nightly video address on Sunday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said his outgunned and outmanned forces are under great strain as Russia continues its unrelenting aerial attacks with drone and missiles hitting largely civilian targets.
“In total, since the beginning of this week alone, Russian terrorists have already used nearly 400 guided aerial bombs, more than 50 Shahed drones, and more than 40 missiles,” Zelensky said. In Odesa, “bodies of children were taken out of the rubble. As of now, 12 people have been reported dead, including five children.”
“Despite the significant shortage of artillery, our heroic warriors are holding out against the onslaughts and defending their positions. It is extremely difficult. These are losses. This is pain. We are waiting for vital supplies, waiting specifically for an American decision. The support is crucially needed,” Zelensky said. “We can shoot down more Russian military aircraft and destroy even more Russian logistics in our occupied territory. The only question is the appropriate weapons that our partners have and can provide to Ukraine.”
RUSSIA’S LOSING THE AIR WAR: With Ukraine’s downing of a Russian A-50U airborne early warning and control aircraft, the counterpart to a U.S. Air Force AWACS plane, Russian pilots have been forced to fly closer to Ukrainian air defense systems, and the result has been a dramatic uptick in Russian planes being shot out of the sky.
“The loss of this capability providing daily command and control to Russian air operations highly likely significantly degrades the situational awareness provided to air crews,” the British Defense Ministry said Saturday. “This is a capability gap Russia can ill afford over the contested airspace of eastern and southern Ukraine.”
“This week alone, we managed to shoot down seven Russian military aircraft,” Zelensky said last night. “Since the beginning of February, Russia has lost 15 military aircraft. … And the more capabilities we have to shoot down Russian aircraft, the farther we destroy Russian logistics in our occupied territory, the more Ukrainian lives will be saved.”
Despite the losses and some unconfirmed reports that some Russian pilots are resisting flying into the teeth of Ukrainian defenses, the aerial onslaught shows no sign of letting up.
“Russian forces are likely attempting to reestablish this limited and localized air superiority in order to support tactical Russian advances in the Avdiivka direction and have decided that continued offensive operations with air support outweigh the risk of losing more aircraft,” said the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War in a weekend assessment, which estimated Russia still has at least 300 more fighter-bomber aircraft. “Russian forces appear to be willing to risk continued aviation losses in pursuit of tactical gains in eastern Ukraine, likely along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.”
BACKROOM, BACKDOOR NEGOTIATIONS: Meanwhile, some House Republicans are wiring furiously behind the scenes to try to find a way to get a Ukraine aid bill to the House floor later this month or early next month, including House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Michael McCaul (R-TX) and Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-PA).
Pretty much any Ukraine aid measure would sail through the House with the help of many Democratic votes, but House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) would face a backlash and possible removal vote from his hard-right flank.
“We have to support Ukraine. The speaker does support Ukraine,” Rep. Mike Turner (R-OH), chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, said on CBS yesterday, indicating Democrats would move to protect Johnson’s speakership if it came to that.
“Probably the most important development that occurred last week was the minority leader, Hakeem Jeffries, came forward and said that the Democrats will not join with the small number of Republicans I frequently refer to as the ‘chaos caucus,’ who say … we will remove the speaker if he moves forward on Ukraine, moves forward on spending bills,” he said.
“I believe, as a result of that step, that Speaker Johnson now has the leeway and the flexibility to work through Congress and the Appropriations Committee,” Turner said. “This is critical. We have to support them now or they will lose. And I think, you know, the speaker sees that emergency. Hakeem Jeffries sees that emergency. And I think we’re going to see bills hit the floor.”
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HAPPENING TODAY: All eyes with be on the Supreme Court this morning with speculation that today may be the day the high court releases its decision in the Colorado case about whether states can remove a presidential candidate from the state ballot under the 14th Amendment, which bars certain officials from holding any federal or state offices if they have engaged in “insurrection or rebellion.”
The speculation was fueled yesterday when the Supreme Court posted on its home page a brief statement that said, “The Court may announce opinions on the homepage beginning at 10 a.m.”
The tenor of arguments before the court last month strongly indicated the justices were leaning toward a ruling that would favor former President Donald Trump and would overturn a Colorado Supreme Court decision that disqualified him and ruled him ineligible for tomorrow’s Colorado primary, one of 16 Super Tuesday primaries.
SUPREME COURT’S TRUMP BALLOT RULING COULD COME MONDAY
BUDGET BILLS UNVEILED: Both sides are claiming to have scored victories in a set of appropriations bills that will fund about 40% of the government and are expected to be voted on this week.
The six bills total about $460 billion and would fund military construction as well as the departments of Transportation, Veterans Affairs, Energy, Agriculture, Interior, and Housing and Urban Development.
Passing the bills will require House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) to suspend the usual rules, a procedure that will require a two-thirds majority for passage, which should be no problem since Democrats are widely expected to support the funding measure.
“House Republicans secured key conservative policy victories, rejected left-wing proposals, and imposed sharp cuts to agencies and programs critical to President Biden’s agenda,” Johnson said in a statement on X. “This legislation forbids the Department of Justice from targeting parents exercising their right to free speech before school boards, while it blocks the Biden Administration from stripping Second Amendment rights from veterans. It imposes deep cuts to the EPA, ATF, and FBI, which under the Biden Administration have threatened our freedoms and our economy.”
“We are proud to be keeping the government open without cuts or poison pill riders,” said Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) in a statement that touted the Democrats’ priorities. “Democrats fought hard to protect against cuts to housing and nutrition programs, and keep out harmful provisions that would further restrict access to women’s health, or roll back the progress we’ve made to fight climate change.”
The six bills must pass before Friday to avert a partial shutdown.
CONGRESS UNVEILS FIRST APPROPRIATIONS PACKAGE AHEAD OF LOOMING SHUTDOWN DEADLINE
GAZA AIRDROPS TO CONTINUE: The U.S. military said its airdrop of more than 38,000 meals into Gaza on Saturday is just the first of what will be a continuing effort to deliver food to the famished Palestinian civilians in Gaza.
“U.S. Central Command and the Royal Jordanian Air Force conducted a combined humanitarian assistance airdrop into Gaza on March 2, 2024, between 3:00 and 5:00 p.m. (Gaza time) to provide essential relief to civilians affected by the ongoing conflict,” the U.S. Central Command said in a statement. “We are conducting planning for potential follow-on airborne aid delivery missions.”
Three U.S. Air Force C-130 dropped the pallets of food on a beach along the Mediterranean coast in southwestern Gaza. Video posted on social media showed people scrambling at the parachutes holding the ready-to-eat halal meals as they landed in the water and on the beach.
“The amount of aid flowing to Gaza is not nearly enough and we will continue to pull out every stop we can to get more aid in,” President Joe Biden said in a social media post. “It is imperative that we expand the flow of aid into Gaza to alleviate the dire humanitarian situation. People urgently need more food, water, and other assistance,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken added in a separate post.
The humanitarian airdrops come after more than 115 Palestinians rushing to get food and aid from trucks last week were killed under circumstances that remain under dispute. Palestinians accused Israeli troops of shooting into the crowd, while Israeli military officials insisted only warning shots were fired in the air said and that many of the fatalities were a result of people being trampled or run over by trucks.
BIDEN’S AIRDROPS INTO GAZA SEES MIXED REACTION IN CONGRESS
GERMANY’S EMBARRASSING LEAK: German officials are scrambling to figure out how Russia was about to listen and record a sensitive private conference call in which Germany’s air force chief and three other officers discussed the ramifications of supplying long-range Taurus missiles to Ukraine.
An audio recording of the February discussion was posted on Telegram by the editor-in-chief of Russian state-controlled broadcaster RT, and there is some reporting in Germany suggesting the security breach was the result of one of the German officers joining the call on an unsecured Webex connection.
“It’s a hybrid disinformation attack — it’s about division, it’s about undermining our unity,” German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said yesterday. “We must not fall for Putin’s tricks.”
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has been resisting pressure from Britain and France, as well as from some German politicians, to send the Taurus missiles to Ukraine, which in theory would give Ukraine the capability to destroy the 12-mile Kerch Bridge that allows Russia to ship supplies directly into occupied Crimea by rail and roads.
CAN UKRAINE REGAIN THE MOMENTUM IN ITS THIRD YEAR OF WAR WITH RUSSIA?
THE RUNDOWN:
Washington Examiner: Congress unveils first appropriations package ahead of looming shutdown deadline
Washington Examiner: Harris calls for ‘immediate ceasefire’ in Gaza to end ‘humanitarian catastrophe’
Washington Examiner: Biden’s airdrops into Gaza sees mixed reaction in Congress
Washington Examiner: Kirby: Gaza aid airdrops part of ‘sustained effort’ to boost humanitarian assistance
Washington Examiner: Supreme Court’s Trump ballot ruling could come Monday
Washington Examiner: McCaul calls for more significant action on Iran for nuclear program
Washington Examiner: World leaders call for investigation into deaths of Palestinians who swarmed Gaza aid convoy
Washington Examiner: Martyred Alexei Navalny ‘was not afraid to ascend to Golgotha’
Washington Examiner: Are voters buying Trump’s or Biden’s border blame game?
Washington Examiner: Majority of voters blame both Congress and Biden for border crisis: Poll
Washington Examiner: Greg Abbott ‘couldn’t be more wrong’ about border crisis: Mayorkas
Washington Examiner: Mark Green looks ahead after reversing retirement from Congress: ‘Big, big things’
Washington Examiner: Rubio says GOP should withhold Ukraine aid ‘in the same way’ Democrats do for Israel
Washington Examiner: Opinion: US military aid drop into Gaza is necessary
AP: Harris is to meet with Israeli Cabinet official who is in Washington despite Netanyahu’s rebuke
AP: Pentagon to lift ban on V-22 Osprey flights, 3 months after fatal crash in Japan
Washington Post: Zelensky in bind over how to draft more troops as Russian forces advance
Bloomberg: Ukraine to Get 155mm Artillery Shells Found in Czech-Led Effort
Reuters: Yemen’s Houthis Say They Will Continue Sinking British Ships
Washington Post: Fears Of Environmental Disaster Rise As Ship Sinks After Houthi Attack
Wall Street Journal: The Pentagon’s Plan for More Ambitious, Affordable Jet Fighters: AI Pilots
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Wilsbach Takes Command of ACC, Vowing to ‘Create Dilemmas’ for China
AP: China in a surprise announcement says it is eliminating an annual news conference by the premier
Washington Post: China’s biggest political confab is about to begin. What are the Two Sessions?
Air & Space Forces Magazine: USAF Logs First Flight of General Atomics’ Autonomous XQ-67 Drone
The War Zone: B-52 Armed with Hypersonic Missile Makes Appearance in Guam
Defense News: Thailand’s Air Force Unveils New Wish List, Eyeing New Jets and Drones
Reuters: Singapore’s Air Force to Add More Stealth Fighters as It Phases Out Older Jets
SpaceNews: Boeing Gets $439 Million Contract for US Military Communications Satellite
DefenseScoop: CDAO Identifies Combatant Command ‘Embed’—But Stays Tight-Lipped on Unfolding Initiative
Air & Space Forces Magazine: German Navy Mistakenly Fires Missiles at USAF MQ-9 Over Red Sea
Air & Space Forces Magazine: New Air Force Grooming Standards Charts: What’s OK, What’s Not
The Cipher Brief: Republicans Offer Kyiv Reassurance on Aid Package. Do they Know Something We Don’t?
The Cipher Brief: Opinion: Ground Truth: The Disconnect, Context and Challenges of Israel’s War against Hamas
THE CALENDAR:
MONDAY | MARCH 4
10 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW — Center for Strategic and International Studies discussion: “Two Years After the Return of War on European Soil: Charting the Path for EU Defense,” with Charles Fries, deputy secretary general for peace, security, and defense at the European External Action Service https://www.csis.org/events/two-years-after-return-war-european-soil
12:30 p.m. — Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies virtual discussion: “Trump-Proofing Europe? An Autonomous European Security and Defense Capability at Last?,” with Paul Taylor, senior fellow at Friends of Europe https://sais.jhu.edu/campus-events
1 p.m. — Washington Post Live virtual discussion: “The Russian presidential election and Alexei Navalny’s legacy, with Michael McFaul, former U.S. ambassador to Moscow https://www.washingtonpost.com/washington-post-live
3 p.m. — Institute of World Politics virtual discussion: “Addressing the Evolving Security Challenges in Korea,” with Bruce Bennett, senior international defense researcher at the Rand Corporation https://events.teams.microsoft.com/event
6 p.m. — 2425-35 Virginia Ave. NW — Palestine Center discussion: “Total War Between River and Sea: The Dynamics of the Gaza War in the West Bank and Within the Green Line,” with Soheir Asaad, head of advocacy at Rawa https://docs.google.com/forms
7 p.m. 5015 Connecticut Ave. NW — Politics and Prose Bookstore book discussion: The Achilles Trap: Saddam Hussein, the CIA, and the Origins of America’s Invasion of Iraq, with author Steve Coll, journalist and dean emeritus of the Columbia Journalism School https://www.politics-prose.com/steve-coll
TUESDAY | MARCH 5
8 a.m. 7920 Jones Branch Drive, McLean, Virginia — Potomac Officers Club 2024 Space Summit with Gen. Stephen Whiting, commander, U.S. Space Command, and Derek Tournear, director of the Air Force Space Development Agency https://potomacofficersclub.com/events/poc-2024-space-summit/
10 a.m. — Hudson Institute virtual discussion: “When Deterrence Fails: The Iranian Proxy Threat in the Middle East,” with Rep. Rich McCormick (R-GA) https://www.hudson.org/events/when-deterrence-fails
10 a.m. — Wilson Center’s Hyundai Motor-Korea Foundation Center for Korean History and Public Policy virtual book discussion: North Korea and the Geopolitics of Development with author Kevin Gray, professor in international relations at the University of Sussex; Jenny Town, senior fellow at the Stimson Center; Andrew Yeo, chairman in Korea studies at the Brookings Institution’s Center for East Asia Policy Studies; and Kayla Orta, senior associate at the Wilson Center’s Hyundai Motor-Korea Foundation Center for Korean History and Public Policy https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/north-korea
1 p.m. — Air and Space Forces Association virtual discussion with Col. Raj Agrawal, commander of space delta 2-space domain awareness and space battle management at the Peterson Space Force Base’s Space Operations Command https://www.afa.org/events/air-space-warfighters-in-action-col-raj-agrawal/
2 p.m. — Rand Corporation discussion: “U.S. Armed Forces in the Arctic Understanding Operating Capabilities in a Challenging Region,” with Coast Guard Deputy Commandant for Operations Vice Adm. Peter Gautier; Abbie Tingstad, visiting Arctic research professor at the U.S. Coast Guard Academy; Stephanie Pezard, director of the Rand Associate Research Department; Yuliya Shokh, Rand technical analyst; Scott Stephenson, professor of policy analysis at the Pardee Rand Graduate School; and Scott Savitz, professor of policy analyst at the Pardee Rand Graduate School http://tinyurl.com/mr3sjdjb
2 p.m. 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace discussion: “Making Sense of U.S. Policy Amid North Korea’s Strategic Shift,” with Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Jung Pak; Evan Feigenbaum, CEIP vice president of studies; and Darcie Draudt-Vejares, fellow at the CEIP Asia Program https://carnegieendowment.org/2024/03/05/making-sense-of-u.s.-policy
3:30 p.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Tactical Air and Land Forces Subcommittee hearing: “Army Aviation Rebalancing and the Path Ahead,” with testimony from Douglas Bush, assistant secretary of the Army for acquisition, logistics, and technology; Gen. James Rainey, commanding general of the Army Futures Command; Maj. Gen. Michael McCurry, commanding general of the Army Aviation Center of Excellence and Fort Novosel; and Brig. Gen. David Phillips, program executive officer in the Army’s Program Executive Office Aviation https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings/tal-hearing-army-aviation
4:30 p.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies Defense-Industrial Initiatives Group, CSIS Australia Chair, CSIS International Security Program and Australian Defence Department virtual discussion: “Strengthening Australia-U.S. Defence Industrial Cooperation,” with Hugh Jeffrey, deputy secretary of strategy, policy, and industry, Australian Defense Department; Cynthia Cook, director, CSIS Defense-Industrial Initiatives Group and senior fellow for the CSIS International Security Program; and Charles Edel, CSIS senior adviser and CSIS Australia chairman https://www.csis.org/events/strengthening-australia-us-defence
WEDNESDAY | MARCH 6
9 a.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. NW — Hudson Institute in-person and virtual discussion: “Growing Expectations for the U.S.-Japan Alliance,” with former Japanese National Security Adviser Shigeru Kitamura; Marine Corps Brig. Gen. James Wellons, assistant deputy commandant for programs and headquarters; Sugio Takahashi, director of policy studies at the Japan National Institute for Defense Studies; and Kenneth Weinstein, Japan chairman at the Hudson Institute https://www.hudson.org/events/growing-expectations-us-japan-alliance
10 a.m. 1000 Massachusetts Ave. NW — Cato Institute book discussion: The Internationalists: The Fight to Restore American Foreign Policy After Trump, with former acting Defense Secretary Chris Miller; author Alex Ward, national security reporter at Politico; Emma Ashford, senior fellow at the Stimson Center; and Justin Logan, director of defense and foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute https://www.cato.org/events/internationalists
10 a.m. 1501 Langston Blvd, Arlington, Virginia — Air and Space Forces Association discussion: “How the Department of the Air Force is reoptimizing for great power competition, and the role operational readiness will play in that effort,” with Ravi Chaudhary, assistant secretary of the Air Force for energy, installations, and environment, and retired Air Force Maj. Gen. Doug Raaberg, AFA executive vice president https://www.afa.org/events/air-space-warfighters-in-action
12 p.m. — Association of the U.S. Army “Noon Report” webinar: “Rebuilding the Army Reserve: Ready Now, Shaping Tomorrow,” with Command Sgt. Maj. Andrew Lombardo, the U.S. Army Reserve’s senior enlisted leader https://www.ausa.org/events/noon-report/csm-lombardo
3:30 p.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Tactical Air and Land Forces Subcommittee hearing: “Army Aviation Rebalancing and the Path Ahead,” with testimony from Douglas Bush, assistant secretary of the Army for acquisition, logistics, and technology; Gen. James Rainey, commanding general of the Army Futures Command; Maj. Gen. Michael McCurry, commanding general of the Army Aviation Center of Excellence and Fort Novosel; and Brig. Gen. David Phillips, program executive officer in the Army’s Program Executive Office Aviation https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings/tal-hearing-army-aviation
4 p.m. 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace discussion: “Evaluating the West’s Ukraine Strategy in 2024,” with Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Olha Stefanishyna https://carnegieendowment.org/2024/03/07/evaluating-west-s-ukraine-strategy
THURSDAY | MARCH 7
9 a.m. HVC-210, U.S. Capitol — House Select Committee on Strategic Competition Between the United States and the Chinese Communist Party hearing: “Growing Stakes: The Bioeconomy and American National Security” https://selectcommitteeontheccp.house.gov
12:30 p.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: “Special operations forces in an era of strategic competition,” with Christopher Maier, assistant secretary of defense for special operations and low intensity conflict https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/special-operations-forces
2 p.m. 2141 Rayburn — House Judiciary Immigration Integrity, Security, and Enforcement Subcommittee hearing: “Presidential Power to Secure the Border” https://judiciary.house.gov/committee-activity/hearings
9:30 p.m. — Sen. Katie Britt (R-AL) the Republican address to the nation following the president’s State of the Union address.