ANATOMY OF A FALL: Ukrainian soldiers defending Avdiivka, an eastern town at a strategic crossroads just 10 miles from Russian-occupied Donetsk, knew last week they would have to give up the fight once they had to ration ammunition and were outnumbered 15-to-1.
Russian warplanes and artillery were relentlessly pounding their positions, and endless waves of “meat grinder” attacks, in which wave after wave of advancing Russian troops would be destroyed only to be replaced by more conscripts, were overwhelming their defense.
Ukrainian commanders ordered a withdrawal before their outnumbered and outgunned soldiers could be surrounded by Russian forces and massacred. By most accounts, the withdrawal was messy, with elite Ukrainian special forces dispatched to extract trapped soldiers under fire, while others fell into Russian hands. Images said to be from the battlefield suggest some Ukrainian soldiers may have been executed with hands tied behind their backs.
“Ukraine’s military was forced to withdraw from Avdiivka after Ukrainian soldiers had to ration ammunition due to dwindling supplies as a result of congressional inaction, resulting in Russia’s first notable gains in months,” President Joe Biden said in a readout of his call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Saturday.
“Keeping Ukraine in artificial deficits of weapons, particularly in deficits of artillery and long-range capabilities, allows Putin to adapt to the current intensity of the war. This self-weakening of democracy over time undermines our joint results,” Zelensky said at the Munich Security Conference later that day. “Russia has only one specific military advantage at this time, namely the complete devaluation of human life. Constant Russian ‘meat assaults’ prove this.”
‘A VERY DANGEROUS TIME’: As Russian troops raised a flag atop a bombed-out building in Avdiivka, videos of the aftermath show virtually nothing left of the city that once was home to 30,000 Ukrainians, while Ukraine has reported repelling Russian advances along several points in the front lines, including Zaporizhzhia in the south and Kharkiv in the North.
“The situation is extremely difficult in several parts of the front line, where Russian troops have amassed maximum reserves. They are taking advantage of the delays in aid to Ukraine,” Zelensky said after a visit to the 14th Mechanized Brigade in the Kharkiv region on Monday. “There is a need for front-line air defense and for a longer range of our weapons.”
“Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Donetsk City and in western Zaporizhia Oblast,” the Institute for the Study of War said in its latest battlefield assessment, while the British Defense Ministry said in its latest intelligence report, that Russian forces likely “lack the combat effectiveness to immediately exploit the capture of Adviivka” and will require a period of “rest and refit.”
“If the Russians had the strength, they would blow through and try to go all the way to the Dnipro River if they could at this point. Apparently, that’s not happening,” retired Gen. Wes Clark, former NATO commander, said on CNN. “Avdiivka was protecting a series of road junctions that held an eastern front together for the Ukrainians. And so, when it falls and there’s no easily defensible ground to the west of Avdiivka, it opens a hole in the Ukrainian defenses.”
“They’re using their airpower much more effectively in the Avdiivka battle than they have in the past. They could initiate a war of movement east of Dnipro River. They could move many, many miles and seriously dislocate defenses that are protecting Kharkiv and even Kyiv itself,” Clark said. “So, it’s a very dangerous time in the war.”
US WARNS UKRAINE LOSS IN AVDIIVKA COULD BE MORE OF WHAT’S TO COME
UNDAUNTED BY HORRIFIC LOSSES: The small Russian victories are coming at a huge cost in men and materiel. Ukraine’s elite 3rd Assault Brigade claimed to have wiped out two entire Russian brigades consisting of 4,200 troops as it evacuated fellow soldiers.
On its Facebook page, the Ukrainian General Staff claimed that in the four months it took to capture Adviivka, Russia lost 47,186 troops, 364 tanks, 248 artillery systems, 748 armored vehicles, and five planes.
On Friday, a senior defense official told reporters at the Pentagon that so far Russia has spent up to $211 billion on its war in Ukraine, not counting $10 billion or more in canceled or postponed arms sales. “We estimate at least 315,000 Russian forces have been either killed or wounded in the fight,” the official said. “Since February of 2022, Ukrainian forces have sunk, destroyed, or damaged at least 20 medium to large Russian Federation navy vessels and one Russian-flagged tanker in the Black Sea.”
Overall, he said, “The war has cost Russia an expected $1.3 trillion in previously anticipated economic growth through 2026.”
US WILL HELP UKRAINE FOR ‘AS LONG AS IT TAKES’: HARRIS
Good Tuesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Stacey Dec. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow me on Threads and/or on X @jamiejmcintyre
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NOT HAPPENING TODAY: While Ukrainian troops are reportedly scrolling through their phones desperate for news that the U.S. Congress may act on their much-needed aid, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) posted a photo of a meeting in Florida with former President Donald Trump, who has claimed credit for killing bipartisan legislation to fund Ukraine and address the crisis at the U.S.-Mexico border. “Just had a great meeting with President,” Johnson said. “Together, we will grow the majority and save America!”
Last week, Johnson sent the House on a two-week recess, meaning that when lawmakers return, they will only have less than 48 hours to act to avert a partial government shutdown on March 1.
“It’s about time they step up, don’t you think? Instead of going on a two-week vacation?” President Joe Biden said Friday. “Two weeks, they’re walking away, two weeks. What are they thinking? My God. This is bizarre, and it’s just reinforcing all the concern and almost, I won’t say panic, but real concern about the United States being a reliable ally. This is outrageous.”
“Please, everyone remember that dictators do not go on vacation,” Zelensky said in Munich. “Hatred knows no pause. Enemy artillery does not fall silent due to procedural issues. Warriors standing against the aggressor need sufficient strength.”
BIDEN RENDERED NEARLY SPEECHLESS AT WHITE HOUSE REACTING TO TRUMP’S NATO COMMENTS
HOUTHIS RETAIN ABILITY TO ATTACK SHIPS: Over the past few days, Iranian-backed Houthi forces have continued to disrupt shipping in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, even as the U.S. launched another round of punishing airstrikes.
On Saturday, the U.S. conducted five what it called “self-defense strikes” against “three mobile anti-ship cruise missiles, one unmanned underwater vessel, and one unmanned surface vessel” in Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen. The underwater drone or “UUV” was the first encountered by the U.S. since the beginning of the battle with Houthi forces, according to the U.S. Central Command.
On Sunday, an attack by Houthi forces disabled a Belize-flagged bulk carrier Rubymar when two anti-ship ballistic missiles were launched, with one hitting the vessel, forcing the crew to abandon ship. “The ship issued a distress call and a coalition warship along with another merchant vessel responded to the call to assist the crew of the MV Rubymar. The crew was transported to a nearby port by the merchant vessel,” CENTCOM said on social media.
And earlier today, Houthis released video and images of what they claimed was a surface-to-air missile shooting down a U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drone off the coast of Yemen. CENTCOM has not commented on the claim.
CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER
THE RUNDOWN:
Washington Examiner: US warns Ukraine loss in Avdiivka could be more of what’s to come
Washington Examiner: Kamala Harris defends muscular foreign policy following Putin critic’s death
Washington Examiner: US will help Ukraine for ‘as long as it takes’: Harris
Washington Examiner: Hillary Clinton claims Trump would pull US out of NATO
Washington Examiner: Mike Turner’s worry about ‘sleepwalking’ into crisis caused alarm over Russian national security threat
Washington Examiner: US: Russia ties raise risk North Korea will use nuclear weapons
Washington Examiner: Alexei Navalny dead: Russian opposition leader and fierce Putin critic dies in Arctic prison at 47
Washington Examiner: Alexei Navalny’s death renews fears for other dissidents
Washington Examiner: Navalny’s wife demands punishment for ‘Putin and all his staff’ following reports of husband’s death
Washington Examiner: US warns Israel over its war conduct as Biden-Netanyahu rift emerges
Washington Examiner: Following Biden remarks, US proposes UN resolution calling for temporary ceasefire
Washington Examiner: Biden rendered nearly speechless at White House reacting to Trump’s NATO comments
Washington Examiner: Israeli economy contracts since outbreak of war
Washington Examiner: Greg Abbott to build military base in Eagle Pass
Washington Examiner: Biden unapologetic for withdrawal from Afghanistan in new book
Washington Examiner: Opinion: Putin shows his evil timidity in Navalny’s death
Washington Examiner: Opinion: Sorry, Trump is not Navalny
Washington Examiner: Opinion: Did Biden just accidentally ban arms sales to Turkey?
Washington Examiner: Opinion: Mike Waltz: Trump is right about NATO burden-sharing
AP: Kremlin Foe Alexei Navalny’s Team Confirms His Death and Says His Mother Is Searching for His Body
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Air Task Forces, Combat Wings, and You: The Future of Deployments Starts Now
Air & Space Forces Magazine: US Planning to Train 12 Ukrainian F-16 Pilots This Fiscal Year, as ANG Provides New Details
Politico: ‘There’s Only Plan A’: Defense Leaders Fear Failure in Ukraine
New York Times: Houthis Say They Shot Down a US Drone Off Yemen
Wall Street Journal: How War in Europe Boosts the US Economy
Washington Post: Trump didn’t quit NATO, but a potential second term alarms allies
Bloomberg: Pentagon Seeks $300 Million for First of Its Replicator Drones
Defense One: Air Force weighs future of Osprey as months-long grounding continues
Breaking Defense: As US Funding Remains in Limbo, Northrop Chases Exports for F-16 EW Suite
Air & Space Forces Magazine: What Does the Future Look Like for Battle Managers?
Space News: Space Force to Study Cape Canaveral Launch Sites for Starship
Military.com: The US Military Already Has a Decades-Old Countermeasure for Russian Space Nukes
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Space Force’s Long-Awaited Commercial Strategy May Finally Be Coming
Aviation Week: Don’t Do Business with China in Space, US Space Force Warns
Air & Space Forces Magazine:
San Antonio Express-News: Pain, Punishment, Push-Ups: Air Force Basic Training Is Still a Bear, But There’s Less Screaming
Defense.info: Who will lead the way to diplomatic recognition of the Taliban?
Foreign Affairs: The Taiwan Catastrophe
The Cipher Brief: After Two Years and 300,000 Casualties in Ukraine, How is Russia Staying in the Fight?
The Cipher Brief: Opinion: Putin has Declared War on the West. It’s Time to Take the Fight to Russia.
THE CALENDAR:
TUESDAY | FEBRUARY 20
10 a.m. — Middle East Institute virtual discussion: “Can Ukraine Still Win?” with Dalibor Rohac, American Enterprise Institute resident scholar; Maria Tomak, head of the Crimea Platform at the Mission of the President of Ukraine in Crimea; Iulia Joja, director of the MEI Black Sea Program; and Stephen Flanagan, member of the MEI Black Sea Program Advisory Council https://www.mei.edu/events/can-ukraine-still-win
10 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW — Center for Strategic and International Studies discussion: “The Future of Pakistan and U.S.-Pakistan Relations,” with Pakistani Ambassador to the U.S. Masood Khan https://www.csis.org/events/future-pakistan-and-us-pakistan-relations
11 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “Reflections on the Ukraine War,” with former NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe retired Army Gen. Wesley Clark and Eliot Cohen, CSIS chairman in strategy https://www.csis.org/events/reflections-on-ukraine-war
12 p.m. — Washington Post Live virtual discussion: “New French Security Agreement with Ukraine, NATO and World Order,” with French Ambassador to the U.S. Laurent Bili https://www.washingtonpost.com/washington-post-live
12 p.m. — Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft virtual book discussion on Towards the Abyss: Ukraine from Maidan to War, with author Volodymyr Ishchenko, research associate at Freie Universitaet’s Institute for East European Studies in Berlin, and Anatol Lieven, director of the Quincy Institute’s Eurasia Program https://quincyinst.org/events/book-talk-towards-the-abyss-in-ukraine/
2 p.m. 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace discussion: “Pivotal States: The Iranian Challenge,” with Suzanne Maloney, director of the Brookings Institution’s Foreign Policy Program; Karim Sadjadpour, CEIP senior fellow; and Christopher Chivvis, director of the CEIP American Statecraft Program https://carnegieendowment.org/2024/02/20/pivotal-states-iranian-challenge
3:30 p.m. 1957 E St. NW — George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs discussion: “Tensions in the Middle East: The War in Gaza, Iran, and the Houthis,” with Jonathan Lord, director of the Center for a New American Security’s Middle East Security Program; Sina Azodi, doctoral candidate at the University of South Florida; Negar Mortazavi, Center for International Policy senior fellow; and Barbara Slavin, Stimson Center fellow https://calendar.gwu.edu/event/tensions
3:30 p.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “U.S. Diplomacy in the Pacific Islands,” with U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield https://www.csis.org/events/conversation-us-ambassador
5 p.m. 16th St. NW — Institute of World Politics lecture: “Is America Teachable? Lessons Never Learned in our Dealings with Russia,” with Victor Rud, former chairman of the Ukrainian American Bar Association https://www.iwp.edu/is-america-teachable-lessons-never-learned
WEDNESDAY | FEBRUARY 21
7:45 a.m. 2425 Wilson Blvd, Arlington, Virginia — Association of the U.S. Army’s “Coffee Series” discussion: with Army Sgt. Maj. Michael Weimer https://www.ausa.org/events/coffee-series/sma-weimer
2 p.m. — Washington Post Live virtual discussion: “The Middle East, Russia’s war in Ukraine two years on and the state of American foreign policy,” with, former defense secretary and CIA director Robert Gates https://www.washingtonpost.com/washington-post-live/
5 p.m. 1521 16th St. NW — Institute of World Politics discussion: “Current Counterintelligence Environment and The China Threat,” with Jorge Velez, private sector coordinator for the FBI Washington Field Office. RSVP to [email protected]
5 p.m. 201 Waterfront St., National Harbor, Maryland — Conservative Political Action Conference Foundation annual conference runs through Feb. 24. https://www.digital.cpac.org/us/events-dc2024
THURSDAY | FEBRUARY 22
8 a.m. — 201 Waterfront St., National Harbor, Maryland — Conservative Political Action Conference Foundation annual conference runs through Feb. 24. https://www.digital.cpac.org/us/events-dc2024
9:30 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “Is North Korea Going to War?” with Bruce Klingner, senior research fellow for Northeast Asia at the Heritage Foundation; Sue Mi Terry, senior adviser at Macro Advisory Partners; Victor Cha, CSIS Korea chairman; and Mark Lippert, CSIS Korea chairman https://www.csis.org/events/north-korea-going-war
11 a.m. — Washington Institute for Near East Policy virtual forum: “From War to Peace? Trip Report from a Middle East Study Tour,” with former Colorado Sen. Cory Gardner, a Republican; former California Rep. Howard Berman, a Democrat; Robert Satloff, WINEP chairman in U.S. Middle East Policy; Michael Singh, WINEP managing director; Dana Stroul, WINEP research director; and Ghaith al Omari, WINEP senior fellow https://washingtoninstitute-org.zoom.us/webinar/register
1 p.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies International Security Program for a virtual discussion: “Ukraine in the Balance: A Battlefield Update on the War in Ukraine,” with Michael Vickers, former undersecretary of defense for intelligence and CIA operations officer; Emily Harding, director of the CSIS Intelligence, National Security and Technology Program and deputy director of the CSIS International Security program; Eliot Cohen, CSIS chairman in strategy; and Seth Jones, senior vice president, chairman, and director of the CSIS International Security Program https://www.csis.org/events/ukraine-balance-battlefield-update-war-ukraine
2:30 p.m. — Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress virtual discussion: “The War in Ukraine After Two Years,” with retired Lt. Gen. David Barno, professor of practice and senior fellow, Merrill Center of the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies; Nora Bensahel, visiting professor of strategic studies, Merrill Center of the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies; Michael Kofman, senior fellow in the Russia and Eurasia Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace; and Joshua Huminski, director, Mike Rogers Center for Intelligence and Global Affairs https://www.addevent.com/event
FRIDAY | FEBRUARY 23
8 a.m. — 201 Waterfront St., National Harbor, Maryland — Conservative Political Action Conference Foundation annual conference runs through Feb. 24. https://www.digital.cpac.org/us/events-dc2024
10 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW — Center for Strategic and International Studies discussion: “Delivering for the Warfighter: The Importance of Executing Space Acquisition Programs,” with Frank Calvelli, assistant Air Force secretary for space acquisition and integration, and Kari Bingen, director of the CSIS Aerospace Security Project https://www.csis.org/events/delivering-warfighter-importance
10 a.m. — Brookings Institution virtual discussion: “Does the West’s Ukraine Policy Need a Reality Check?” with Asli Aydintasbas, Brookings visiting fellow; Michael O’Hanlon, Brookings chairman in defense and strategy; Steven Pifer, Brookings nonresident senior fellow; and Angela Stent, Brookings nonresident senior fellow https://www.brookings.edu/events/does-the-wests-ukraine-policy-need-a-reality-check
11:30 a.m. 7801 Leesburg Pike, Falls Church, Virginia — Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association Northern Virginia Chapter discussion, with Scott Kiser, director of the Air Force Office of Small Business Programs. https://afceanova.swoogo.com/afceanovaluncheonFeb2024