TRUMP’S POWER PLAY: House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) emerged from yesterday’s White House meeting with President Joe Biden resolute that there would be no new aid for Ukraine unless his caucus members are appeased with a tough new border security policy that mirrors a bill that passed the House last year, one which Democrats have rejected as extreme.
“We understand that there’s concern about the safety, security, and sovereignty of Ukraine, but the American people have those same concerns about our own domestic sovereignty and our safety and our security,” Johnson said after the meeting between the president and congressional leaders. “But we must insist that the border be the top priority.”
But last night, Johnson admitted there is another force at play. The man who may very well be the president-elect this time next year is pressuring him to reject the carefully negotiated bipartisan deal crafted by the Senate. In an appearance on Fox News last night, Johnson was questioned by host Laura Ingraham, who said she had just gotten off the phone with former President Donald Trump. “He said he has spoken to you about this deal and that he is against it, and he urged you to be against this deal. He was extremely — President Trump was extremely adamant about that.”
“President Trump is not wrong. He and I have been talking about this pretty frequently. I talked to him the night before last about the same subject,” Johnson said, indicating the Senate compromise is unlikely to be acceptable. “We don’t have the text of whatever the Senate has cooked up yet. And so we have to reserve judgment, I think, to see what comes out of it. It doesn’t sound good at the outset.”
Some Republicans don’t want to make a deal because they believe Trump needs the issue to fire up his base for the coming election. “There are some that are saying, ‘Hey, we don’t want Biden to actually get credit for doing anything on the border because obviously, he’s made a huge mess,’” Sen. James Lankford (R-OK) said, according to the Washington Post.
BORDER GOP’S ONLY BARGAINING CHIP: Johnson is in a tight spot; his ever-shrinking majority in the House effectively means he can’t pass any legislation without Democratic votes — including the deal on another stopgap continuing resolution needed to avert a government shutdown tomorrow. And Johnson is unwilling to risk the wrath of his right flank and possible future president to delink Ukraine aid from the border issue because it’s the House GOP’s only bargaining chip with Democrats, who hold the Senate and the White House.
On CNN last night, Johnson argued aid for Ukraine can’t continue under the current Biden administration’s policy of supporting Kyiv “as long as it takes.”
“What’s happening in Ukraine right now, that status quo cannot be maintained. That’s unacceptable. We cannot spend billions of dollars without a clear strategy articulated,” Johnson said. “And I told the president, in the meeting today, again, as I’ve been saying, repeatedly, sir, you have to articulate what the strategy is. What is the endgame? What is the outcome of that we’re trying to achieve? And how will we have accountability for the dollars, the precious taxpayer dollars of the American people?
Democrats say those questions have been answered and that the objectives are clear. “There’s a large amount of agreement around the table that we must do Ukraine, and we must do the border,” said Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) after the White House meeting. “There was tremendous focus on Ukraine and an understanding that, if we don’t come to Ukraine’s aid, the consequences for America around the globe would be nothing short of devastating.
JOHNSON PRESSES SENATE TO PRIORITIZE HOUSE-LED BORDER BILL OVER ‘COMPREHENSIVE’ REFORM
THE PROOF IS ON THE BATTLEFIELD: Democrats are frustrated that the fate of Ukraine is hanging on a highly divisive domestic issue, while House members refuse to compromise, and while Ukraine has been slowly but surely upping its game on the battlefield.
“Over the past year, it took back more than 50% of the territory that had been taken from it in February of 2022,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken said at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. “The last part of the last year has been challenging, but even then, something that got little notice, what Ukraine managed to do in the Black Sea, opening it up, pushing the Russian navy back, and starting to get grain out to the world. It’s been the breadbasket of the world. It’s gone back to that as a result of actions it’s taken.”
The impact of American arms has been underscored by a viral video released by the Ukrainian Defense Ministry showing a U.S.-supplied Bradley Fighting Vehicle destroying one of Russia’s top-of-the-line T-90 main battle tanks.
“Ukraine has succeeded in ways that nobody could have imagined over the last two years. They’ve done everything the world could have asked them to do. Their battle is not just a battle for Ukraine; it’s a battle for democracy,” Sen. Michael Bennet (D-CO) said on CNN. “CNN has an incredible report today that I saw about the importance of the Bradley Fighting Vehicle in this fight.”
“This is not one of those moments when we can fail, blame the other party, and go home and say it’s going to be OK,” Bennet said. “Democracy’s on the line. The Western world, I would say, is on the line, and we’ve got to get this done.”
MTG THREATENS NEW ROUND OF SPEAKER CHAOS IF JOHNSON CUTS DEAL WITH DEMOCRATS ON UKRAINE
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YEMEN STRIKES, ROUND FOUR: At midnight local time in the Red Sea, U.S. warships and a submarine fired a volley of Tomahawk cruise missiles and took out 14 missiles that were “loaded to be fired” in Houthi-controlled areas in Yemen, the U.S. Central Command said last night.
“These missiles on launch rails presented an imminent threat to merchant vessels and U.S. Navy ships in the region and could have been fired at any time, prompting U.S. forces to exercise their inherent right and obligation to defend themselves,” Gen. Michael “Erik” Kurilla, the head of Central Command, said in a statement. “These strikes, along with other actions we have taken, will degrade the Houthi’s capabilities to continue their reckless attacks on international and commercial shipping in the Red Sea, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and the Gulf of Aden.”
“Ultimately, at the end of the day, the Houthis need to ask themselves how much of their capability do they want degraded and disrupted in light of these illegal, reckless, and dangerous attacks?” Pentagon press secretary Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder said yesterday, hours before the latest strikes. “This is not about the United States; this is about the ability of the nations of the world to sail an international waterway through the Red Sea, through which 10 to 15% of economic trade transits, and do so safely and securely.”
US LAUNCHES FOURTH ROUND OF STRIKES AGAINST HOUTHIS AFTER MISSILE ATTACK ON COMMERCIAL VESSEL
PAKISTAN STRIKES BACK AT IRAN: Pakistan, a nuclear state, hit Iran with what it called “a series of highly coordinated and specifically targeted precision military strikes against terrorist hideouts,” in apparent retaliation for an Iranian strike on Pakistani territory Tuesday that killed two children.
Iranian state media reported that at least nine people, including three women and four children, were killed in the strikes, while Pakistan said only a “number of terrorists had been killed.”
In a statement, Pakistan’s foreign ministry said the operation, codenamed “Marg Bar Sarmachar,” or “Death to Sarmachar,” was based on “credible intelligence of impending large-scale terrorist activities” by Pakistani terrorists who call themselves “Sarmachars” and operate from ungoverned spaces inside Iran.
“Iran is a brotherly country and the people of Pakistan have great respect and affection for the Iranian people. We have always emphasized dialogue and cooperation in confronting common challenges including the menace of terrorism and will continue to endeavor to find joint solutions,” Pakistan’s foreign ministry said in a statement.
The exchange of cross-border strikes came as Iran has been flexing its military muscle in the region, where a day before, Iran launched missiles at a target in Iraq’s semiautonomous Kurdistan region that it claimed was an “espionage headquarters” of Israel’s Mossad intelligence agency. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard also claimed responsibility for a missile strike in Syria aimed at an ISIS leader said to have been behind the deadly bombing in the Iranian city of Kerman that killed at least 95 people.
IRAN SHOWCASES INCREASED ABILITY AND DESIRE TO ATTACK ACROSS THE MIDDLE EAST
IN PRAISE OF PATRIOTS: In what could be an ad for Raytheon’s Patriot missile defense system, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky couldn’t heap enough praise on the anti-aircraft, anti-missile system that has proven to provide an almost impenetrable shield against missiles, drone, and planes wherever it is deployed.
Speaking in Davos, Switzerland, Zelensky did not say if Patriot missiles took down the Russian A-50 radar and early warning plane over the Sea of Azov a few days ago, but he said the Patriot system was performing way above expectations.
“To be frank, tests of Patriot, which has various modifications, PAC-2, PAC 3, different levels, but still, modern Patriots, their tests on the training grounds are nothing compared to what happened in Ukraine during the war,” Zelensky said.
“When we talk about air defense systems, look, I must bow deeply to the producers who created Patriot. There’s no system like that in the world that can combat any missile, be it regular or ballistic, any Russian weapon,” he said. “It is genuinely the most powerful system in the world today. Russians are shocked, and frankly, our partners are shocked too, by how effective this system is.”
A Russian Il-22 command and control aircraft was also brought down, but Russia claimed it managed to land after being hit. The Russian Defense Ministry also claimed that its own air defenses accidentally shot down the planes in a case of “friendly fire.”
CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER
THE RUNDOWN:
Washington Examiner: US launches fourth round of strikes against Houthis after missile attack on commercial vessel
Washington Examiner: Iran showcases increased ability and desire to attack across the Middle East
Washington Examiner: MTG threatens new round of speaker chaos if Johnson cuts deal with Democrats on Ukraine
Washington Examiner: Johnson signals path for Ukraine aid following White House congressional meeting
Washington Examiner: House condemns Biden administration over ‘open-border’ policies
Washington Examiner: Senate leaders express optimism on Ukraine-border deal: ‘Closer than we have ever been’
Washington Examiner: Johnson presses Senate to prioritize House-led border bill over ‘comprehensive’ reform
Washington Examiner: Democrat files resolution to censure Elise Stefanik over Jan. 6 ‘hostages’ comment
Washington Examiner: Nearly 50,000 veterans used new, free suicide prevention treatment in 2023
Washington Examiner: Virginia Marine veteran enters House race in bid to make history and flip seat red
Washington Examiner: Blinken grounded after Boeing aircraft experiences an oxygen leak
Washington Examiner: Opinion: Taiwan’s election puts the US and China on a collision course
Reuters: Taiwan Reports First Major Chinese Military Activity After Election
AP: Hundreds protest and clash with police in a Russian region after an activist is sentenced to prison
AP: Top NATO Military Officer Urges Allies And Leaders To Plan For The Unexpected In Ukraine
New York Times: After Striking 3 Neighbors, Iran Boasts Of Missile Power
CBS News: USS Ford Aircraft Carrier Returns Home After Eight-Month Deployment
Seapower Magazine: Delay to CVN 82 Buy Could Endanger Industrial Base, New Industry Report Says
Defense News: U.S. Marines Rush To Field Two Air Defense Systems Amid Global Threats
Military.com: Drone Flying Over Guam Marine Corps Base ‘Disabled’ As Service Touts New Tools To Take Down Unmanned Aircraft
Defense One: Senate Inches Toward Another Two-Tiered Stopgap Spending Bill
Defense News: Pentagon Restarts Meetings to Implement New Industrial Strategy
Navy Times: Navy Revamps Policy For Assigning Pregnant Sailors To Shore Duty
Task & Purpose: Families of US vets killed in Ukraine urge Congress to continue the fight
Radio Free Europe/ Radio Liberty: Toilet Wars: Kremlin Steps Up Claims Of Defending ‘Traditional Values’ Amid Rising Social Tensions
The War Zone: B-21 Raider Flight Testing Now Underway
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Pentagon Official: Space ‘Essential to Any Mission’ as US Confronts Houthis
Air & Space Forces Magazine: New Report: Space Force Needs to Plus-Up for Cislunar Competition
Space News: Astroscale Reveals Concept of Operations for Its In-Orbit Refueling Vehicle
Breaking Defense: DOD ‘Completely Rewrites’ Classification Policy for Secret Space Programs
Aviation Week: Top US Air Force Test Wing Looks for New Ways to Meet Demand
Defense One: The Secret History of the Air Force One Shadow Fleet
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Allvin’s New Reading List Is All About Change
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Robert D. Gaylor, Fifth Chief Master Sergeant of the Air Force, Dies
National Interest: Opinion: Mike Pompeo: Joe Biden Can’t Show Weakness on Guyana (Mike Pompeo)
National Interest: Is North Korea Really Getting Ready for a War Against America?
THE CALENDAR:
THURSDAY | JANUARY 18
9 a.m. — U.S. Institute of Peace virtual discussion: “Religious Actors and Peacebuilding in Ukraine,” with Denys Brylov, co-founder and director of the European Center for Strategic Analytics; Tetiana Kalenychenko, co-founder and director of the European Center for Strategic Analytics; Andrii Kryshtal, project manager of Conciliation Resources; Catherine Wanner, professor of anthropology and religious studies at Pennsylvania State University; and Nicholas Danysenko, chair in theology at Valparaiso University https://www.usip.org/events/religious-actors-and-peacebuilding-ukraine
9 a.m. — U.S. Institute of Peace virtual discussion: “Religious Actors and Peacebuilding in Ukraine,” with Denys Brylov, co-founder and director of the European Center for Strategic Analytics; Tetiana Kalenychenko, co-founder and director of the European Center for Strategic Analytics; Andrii Kryshtal, project manager of Conciliation Resources; Catherine Wanner, professor of anthropology and religious studies at Pennsylvania State University; and Nicholas Danysenko, chair in theology at Valparaiso University https://www.usip.org/events/religious-actors-and-peacebuilding-ukraine
10 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW — Center for Strategic and International Studies discussion: “The administration’s arms control agenda, including updates on U.S.-Russia and U.S-China engagement,” with Pranay Vaddi, National Security Council senior director for arms control, disarmament, and nonproliferation https://www.csis.org/events/armchair-discussion-pranay-vaddi
10 a.m. — Arab Center virtual discussion: “Gaza and the Crime of Genocide: Legal and Political Dimensions of Accountability,” with Michael Barnett, professor at George Washington University; Noura Erakat, associate professor at Rutgers University; Maria LaHood, deputy legal director of the Center for Constitutional Rights; Raz Segal, associate professor at Stockton University; and Yousef Munayyer, Arab Center senior fellow https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register
11:15 a.m. — Brookings Institution virtual discussion: “A new maritime partnership for the Atlantic,” with Jessye Lapenn, senior coordinator for Atlantic cooperation at the State Department’s Bureau of Oceans and International Environment and Scientific Affairs; Daniel Hamilton, nonresident senior fellow in foreign policy at the Brookings Institution’s Center on the U.S. and Europe; Ali Kamal-Dean, executive director of the Centre for Maritime Law and Security Africa, senior lecturer at the University of Professional Studies, Accra and adjunct professor at Nelson Mandela University; Bruce Jones, senior fellow in foreign policy at the Brookings Institution’s Strobe Talbott Center for Security, Strategy, and Technology and the Brookings Institution’s Center for East Asia Policy Studies; and Melanie Sisson, fellow of foreign policy at the Brookings Institution’s Strobe Talbott Center for Security, Strategy, and Technology https://connect.brookings.edu/register-to-watch-maritime-partnership-atlantic
1 p.m. — Washington Post Live virtual discussion: “The record surge of migrants, border security and a possible government shutdown,” with Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-TX) https://www.washingtonpost.com/washington-post-live
4 p.m. — RAND Corporation virtual discussion: “What Americans Think About Veterans — And Why it Matters,” with retired Brig. Gen. Michael Meese, president of the American Armed Forces Mutual Aid Association; Melissa Bryant, former adviser for strategic engagement to the secretary of Veterans Affairs; Meredith Kleykamp, RAND senior sociologist; and Kayla Williams, RAND senior policy researcher https://www.rand.org/events/2024/01/what-americans-think-about-veterans
5 p.m. 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace book discussion: The Dissident: Alexey Navalny, Profile of a Political Prisoner, with author David Herszenhorn, Russia, Ukraine, and East Europe editor at the Washington Post https://carnegieendowment.org/2024/01/18/dissident-book-talk
8 p.m. 1212 Cathedral St., Baltimore, Maryland — Stevenson University “Baltimore Speaker Series,” with former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Marie Yovanovitch https://baltimorespeakers.org/
FRIDAY | JANUARY 19
8:30 a.m. 11493 Sunset Hills Road, Reston, Virginia — Government Executive Media Group forum: “Doing Business with the Space Force,” with Jeremy Leader, deputy director of the Space Force Commercial Space Office https://events.washingtontechnology.com/wt-power-breakfast
9 a.m. — Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress book discussion: The Arms of the Future, with author Jack Watling, senior research fellow at RUSI in London https://www.addevent.com/event
10 a.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW — Brookings Institution discussion: “Navigating the uncertainties of U.S.-China relations over the next decade,” with Conor Seyle, vice president of operations at Pax Sapiens and senior strategic adviser at One Earth Future; Ren Libo, founder and president of the Grandview Institution; Dennis Wilder, adjunct professor at Georgetown University and senior fellow at Georgetown University’s Initiative for U.S.-China Dialogue on Global Issues; Betty Sue Flowers, teaching professor emerita at the University of Texas; Patricia Kim, fellow in foreign policy at the Brookings Institution’s Center for East Asia Policy Studies and fellow at the Brookings Institution’s China Center; Ryan Hass, director of the Brookings Institution’s China Center, senior fellow in foreign policy at the Brookings Institution’s Center for East Asia Policy Studies and the China Center and chair in Taiwan studies at the Brookings Institution https://www.brookings.edu/events/navigating-the-uncertainties-of-us-china-relations