Russia losing 1,000 a day, faces 650,000 war deaths at end of 2024
Paul Bedard
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The Russian death toll in President Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine, supposed to last just three days, this year is expected to rank third behind the enormous losses of World War I and World War II, according to a new analyst report.
Russia is on a path to lose 650,000 soldiers and civilians by late 2024, nudging aside the horrific death toll of the Crimean War of 1853. In that war, 450,000 died over 900 days at a time the Russian Empire had half the population it does today.
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“During November and December, the Russians lost just shy of 1,000 men per day, according to the official Ukrainian count. This is a spectacular pace of loss and, if continued, could shorten the war by as much as a year,” international analyst Steven Kopits of Princeton Policy Advisers said.
“At the current pace, Russian losses will reach 650,000 dead by late 2024. If this proves to represent a threshold of public tolerance, the war could end at that time. The next stop is 1 million Russian dead, which could be expected by autumn 2025 at the current rate of eliminations,” Kopits added.
He updated his prediction in late December to account for the escalation of the war in Ukraine and focus on the explosion in Russian deaths. He shared it with Secrets before the last week of mayhem on both sides.
Kopits, who also analyzes the energy industry and illegal U.S. border crossings, cited three reasons that the Russian public might push to end the war in Ukraine soon.
First, he said the deaths are far more visible to Russians than they were in past conflicts because of TV and social media.
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“Second, Russia is for all that a marginally more civilized country than it was in the 1800s, and the public’s tolerance may be accordingly less. Third, and most importantly, this war is entirely discretionary for Russia. Unlike World War I, which saw massive losses of Russian territory, including Finland, Poland, the Baltics, and Bessarabia (largely today’s Moldova), Russia is facing no territorial losses compared to the pre-war era,” his latest analysis said.
His bottom line: “Although Putin claims Russia will fight for five years, the Russian public found the losses of World War I intolerable and overthrew their government. If Russia continues to lose 1,000 soldiers every day, Russia will likely concede the war before the end of 2025.”