Why the US shouldn’t and won’t abandon Ukraine
Tom Rogan
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The United States is not going to stop supporting Ukraine.
Whether this year or early next year, the disagreement in Congress will be resolved. Republicans are demanding that a $60 billion aid package for Ukraine join alongside serious border security reforms. This is not an extremist request nor a hat tip to Russian President Vladimir Putin. The long-term preservation of support for Ukraine requires Republicans who are able to sell that support to their constituents credibly. This will be difficult, perhaps impossible, if Republicans cannot even show an ability to re-secure the evidently broken U.S.-Mexico border. Enough Democrats recognize this. They also understand that most voters want improved border security. They’ll compromise.
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Yet the key reason that the president and most members of Congress will keep supporting Ukraine is quite simple. It is in the U.S. national interest that Ukraine not be defeated by Russia.
There is the obvious moral interest in helping Ukraine preserve its democratic sovereignty. But there’s also the basic fact that U.S. support for Ukraine represents a very good return on investment. Yes, because four European Union member states directly border Ukraine, the EU should be providing much more for Ukraine’s defense than the U.S. is doing. Yes, there are concerns over whether munitions sent to Ukraine come at the cost of Israel and Taiwan’s security.
Still, in return for U.S. weapons and funding, Ukraine has been able to destroy much of the Russian land army. A U.S. intelligence assessment declassified this week found that Russians killed or wounded in Ukraine amount to at least 315,000. Yes, 315,000. In ambition and in action, Russia is America’s second-most serious adversary. It is the key partner of America’s preeminent adversary. Ukraine’s degradation of the Russian military thus directly contributes to America’s security. And even as Ukraine moves to a more defensive footing, Russia will be forced to throw more resources against hardened defenses. Its casualties and the costs of this war will grow.
However, were Putin able to establish a puppet regime in Ukraine, he would gain both the political and economic ammunition to make threats elsewhere. Putin would look to the defeat of Ukraine as an almost holy signal that his claims over the Baltic States and Poland are within reach. Those claims are deeply held by Putin, keystone markers towards his establishment of a great new Russian imperium. They underline why Poland and the Baltics are some of America’s most reliable allies. In Ukraine’s defeat, Putin would find a transatlantic alliance demoralized and newly open to his efforts to divide it in peace and in war. He would have Ukraine’s metals, energy, and food industries to help fund this agenda and consolidate his domestic political kleptocracy.
Other considerations bear attention.
The influence of the war in Ukraine on whether and when Chinese President Xi Jinping will invade Taiwan is exaggerated. Nevertheless, Russian victory over Ukraine would certainly teach Xi one key lesson: that American endurance is fleeting and that the transatlantic alliance is fundamentally pliable. Xi would be encouraged to make greater economic investments and take greater risks in the pursuit of his ultimate objective: the displacement of the U.S.-led democratic rule of law-based international order with an order of Beijing-led feudal mercantilism.
Put simply, the reasons for continued congressional support for Ukraine are threefold: The border dispute will be resolved, it’s a good return on investment, and it’s in America’s interest.