How the so-called ‘Hastert rule’ could torpedo Ukraine’s war effort
Jamie McIntyre
PUTIN IS WATCHING: Russian President Vladimir Putin knows his best chance of eking out an end state in Ukraine he could credibly spin as a victory is to hold on to most of the territory his forces now occupy and hope that the United States, Ukraine’s most important ally, goes wobbly. “He wants to wait us out. I think he wants to see what happens in ’24,” said Richard Haass, president emeritus of the Council on Foreign Relations.
Putin’s strategy is to keep replacing his horrific battlefield losses with fresh cannon fodder and hope that the anti-Ukraine aid faction in the House of Representatives can undercut President Joe Biden’s promise to support Kyiv “as long as it takes” and then hope that Biden is replaced by Donald Trump, who has pledged to end the war in 24 hours on Putin’s terms.
REPUBLICAN DISPUTE OVER UKRAINE AID ENCOURAGES RUSSIA TO HOPE FOR VICTORY OVER WEST
ZELENSKY IS WATCHING: The efforts by hard-right Republicans to end U.S. economic and military assistance to Ukraine have sent shivers through the alliance of nearly 50 nations who have been providing billions of dollars in modern weapons and ammunition. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky knows Ukraine can’t emerge from the war as a functioning nation if it can’t achieve some basic goals, even if it doesn’t succeed in liberating every inch of captured territory.
Ukraine needs to be able to export grain from the port of Odesa, needs access to the Sea of Azov, and is desperate to cut Russia’s land bridge to Crimea and regain control of the peninsula lost to Russia’s illegal 2014 annexation. Those goals would be in jeopardy if the cutoff of U.S. aid triggered European partners to withdraw or cut back their support.
“All the support for Ukraine, every step to help us will surely be repaid with global security to those who support us,” Zelensky said in his latest video address. “When Russian aggression is defeated on our soil, the very idea of aggression will be crushed.”
RUSSIA’S OVEROPTIMISTIC ASSESSMENT OF US TENSIONS OVER UKRAINE AID
ENTER THE ‘HASTERT RULE’: One of the arguments Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) is using in his effort to defenestrate House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) is that he ran afoul of the so-called “Hastert rule,” named for former Republican House Speaker Dennis Hastert. The “rule” is actually an informal policy that has been used for decades to prevent the passage of legislation that enjoys bipartisan support but not a “majority of the majority” in the House.
Gaetz wants any vote on Ukraine aid to be a stand-alone bill so that the Hastert rule would prevent it from being sent to the floor where it would easily pass.
“Ukraine has lost the support of a majority of the majority,” Gaetz said on the House floor yesterday. “The last time there’s a freestanding Ukraine vote on this floor, it was last week, 101 Republicans voted for it, 117 Republicans voted against it. According to the Hastert rule, which Speaker McCarthy agreed to in January, you cannot use Democrats to roll a majority of the majority, certainly on something as consequential as Ukraine.”
McCarthy has already ignored the Hastert rule twice, first when he cut the debt ceiling deal with Biden in June and again on Saturday in passing a continuing resolution with a majority of votes from Democrats.
“No matter how you feel about Ukraine or the southern border, they each deserve the dignity of their own consideration and should not be rolled together where they might pass where each individually wouldn’t,” Gaetz argued, knowing full well that strict adherence to the Hastert rule would doom further aid to Ukraine.
THE HOUSE REPUBLICANS JOINING MATT GAETZ’S MOTION TO OUST MCCARTHY
Good Tuesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Conrad Hoyt. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow me on Threads and/or on X @jamiejmcintyre
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HAPPENING TODAY: Vice President Kamala Harris will swear in Laphonza Butler, a Democrat, to fill the Senate seat left vacant by the late California Sen. Dianne Feinstein, who died last Thursday at the age of 90. Butler will be the only black woman serving in the U.S. Senate and the first openly lesbian person to represent California in the upper chamber.
Still unresolved is who will replace Feinstein on the Senate Judiciary Committee, which plays a crucial role in advancing the Biden administration’s judicial nominees. Upon Feinstein’s death, the committee was left evenly split with 10 Republicans and 10 Democrats. Minority Whip John Thune (R-SD) and Judiciary ranking member Lindsey Graham (R-SC) have indicated Republicans will allow the vacancy to be filled without a fight.
NEWSOM PICKS MARYLAND RESIDENT TO REPLACE FEINSTEIN IN SENATE
ALSO TODAY: NSC Coordinator for Strategic Communications John Kirby is scheduled to join White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre at today’s 1 p.m. White House briefing.
UKRAINE AID PINCHING PENTAGON STOCKS: According to a letter to Congress obtained by the Associated Press, the Pentagon is running low on money to replace weapons the U.S. has sent to Ukraine.
Pentagon Comptroller Michael McCord has reportedly told House and Senate leaders there is only $1.6 billion left of the $25.9 billion Congress appropriated to replenish U.S. military stocks, and warned: “Failure to replenish our military services on a timely basis could harm our military’s readiness.”
McCord said the U.S. has completely run out of long-term funding under the congressionally-authorized Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative and that without additional funding, the delivery of vital air defense weapons, ammunition, drones, and demolition and breaching equipment will be delayed.
UKRAINE FEELS THE SUPPRESSED FRUSTRATION OF NEEDING ELON MUSK
MARINES MAKE IT UNDER THE WIRE: At least one military service met its recruiting goals as the 2023 fiscal year ended Saturday.
“I’m proud to announce the @USMC has met our FY23 recruiting goal,” Marine Corps Commandant Gen. Eric Smith posted on X. “I’m mindful of how challenging an environment this is and want to publicly give credit to our professional recruiters and all our Marines who uphold our rigorous standards 24/7. They are setting the example.”
The Army is expected to end up roughly 10,000 recruits short of its goal of recruiting 65,000 new soldiers, according to Military.com, which also reported the Air Force will fall about 10% short and the Navy by 6,000 sailors.
KELLY: ‘GOD HELP US’: Donald Trump’s longest-serving chief of staff, retired Marine Gen. John Kelly, has given a statement to CNN in which he describes the former president as someone who “has nothing but contempt for our democratic institutions, our Constitution, and the rule of law,” and “has no idea what America stands for and has no idea what America is all about.”
The statement was in response to CNN asking if Kelly wanted to “weigh in on his former boss in light of recent comments made by other former Trump officials.”
“What can I add that has not already been said?” Kelly said. “A person that thinks those who defend their country in uniform, or are shot down or seriously wounded in combat, or spend years being tortured as POWs are all ‘suckers’ because ‘there is nothing in it for them.’ A person that did not want to be seen in the presence of military amputees because ‘it doesn’t look good for me.’ A person who demonstrated open contempt for a Gold Star family – for all Gold Star families – on TV during the 2016 campaign, and rants that our most precious heroes who gave their lives in America’s defense are ‘losers’ and wouldn’t visit their graves in France.”
READ MORE: TRUMP’S FORMER CHIEF OF STAFF CONFIRMS HE CALLED FALLEN SOLDIERS ‘LOSERS’
The Rundown
Washington Examiner: Republican dispute over Ukraine aid encourages Russia to hope for victory over West
Washington Examiner: Analysis: Russia’s overoptimistic assessment of US tensions over Ukraine aid
Washington Examiner: Ukraine feels the suppressed frustration of needing Elon Musk
Washington Examiner: The House Republicans joining Matt Gaetz’s motion to oust McCarthy
Washington Examiner: MTG claims voters would not tolerate effort to oust Gaetz despite McCarthy battle
Washington Examiner: Milley dodges responding to Trump accusation he committed ‘treasonous’ actions
Washington Examiner: Trump’s former chief of staff confirms he called fallen soldiers ‘losers’
Washington Examiner: UK Prime Minister Sunak says training Ukrainian troops in-country is not happening ‘here and now’
Washington Examiner: Iran can produce fissile material for nuclear bomb within two weeks: Department of Defense
Washington Examiner: A reminder that innovative terrorists pose special threats
Washington Examiner: Is China willing to start a conflict with the Philippines?
Washington Examiner: PLA releases militaristic cartoon on reunification with Taiwan
Washington Examiner: Opinion: Yes, Biden should meet Xi at APEC summit
Politico: US to Send More Aid to Ukraine ‘Soon’ Amid Funding Concerns, WH Says
New York Times: The Next Target In Putin’s War: U.S. Support For Ukraine, Officials Say
Bloomberg: The World’s Costliest Weapons Program Just Got More Expensive
Defense News: Britain Pumps Nearly $5 Billion into Future AUKUS Submarine Pipeline
USNI News: Australian Army Shifting Priorities To Amphibious, Littoral Operations
Fox News: NATO Testing Underwater Drones Off The Coast Of Europe To Deter Russia
Reuters: U.S. Senators Hope To Meet With Xi During China Trip Next Week
New York Times: Russia May Be Planning To Test A Nuclear-Powered Missile
Washington Post: As China Arrives With A Splash In Honduras, The U.S. Wrings Its Hands
Breaking Defense: AFRL Picks 3 Contractors for JETSON Effort to Develop Fission Powered Spacecraft
Task & Purpose: US Launched Two Raids Against ISIS Within a Week
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Brown’s First Message to the Force as Chairman: ‘Accelerate Change’ Lives On
Wall Street Journal: The US Military’s Weighty Challenge: ‘Skinny-Fat’ Recruits
Air & Space Forces Magazine: New Details of Secret LRSO Missile: Nine Successful Flight Tests in 2022
The War Zone: Future Air Combat Drone Performance Focus Areas Emerge
Air & Space Forces Magazine: JSTARS Flies Its Last Operational Mission Ahead of November Retirement
Air & Space Forces Magazine: CSO Saltzman on ‘The State of the Space Force’
Space News: Space Force Goal of a Multi-Vendor Space Network Called Impractical
Military Times: Military Pay, Benefits May Be Better Than You Think, Report Says
Washington Post: Pentagon official charged with participating in dog fighting ring
Orange County Register: Last F-18 Training Squadron Is Decommissioned At Miramar, Marking The End Of An Era
Forbes: Which Companies Will Benefit Most From Modernization Of The U.S. Nuclear Arsenal?
Calendar
TUESDAY | OCTOBER 3
9 a.m. 525 New Jersey Ave. NW — Punchbowl News discussion on national security and foreign policy with Senate Intelligence Committee Chairman Mark Warner (D-VA); Andrew Desiderio, senior congressional reporter at Punchbowl News; and Anna Palmer, co-founder and CEO of PunchBowl News https://events.punchbowl.news/pop-up_warner/Oct3
12 p.m. — Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft virtual book discussion: Russia’s Foreign Policy: Change and Continuity in National Identity, with author Andrei Tsygankov, professor of Russian and international politics at San Francisco State University https://quincyinst.org/event/book-talk-russias-foreign-policy
7 p.m. 6100 Main St., Houston, Texas — Rice University’s Baker Institute Public Policy Shell Distinguished Lecture Series event, with Secretary of State Antony Blinken; former Secretary of State James Baker, honorary chairman of the Baker Institute; and David Satterfield, director of Rice University’s Baker Institute https://www.eventbrite.com/e/livestream
5 p.m. 521 16th St. NW — The Institute of World Politics lecture: “The U.S. Navy Leading the Way in Cybersecurity, Zero Trust Framework,” with Scott St. Pierre, director of enterprise networks and cybersecurity at OPNAV N2N6D https://www.iwp.edu/events/the-u-s-navy-leading-the-way
WEDNESDAY | OCTOBER 4
9:30 a.m. 332 Dirksen — A coalition of faith leaders stage a prayer vigil and sit-in to call for a ceasefire and peace talks to end the war in Ukraine, with Michele Dunne, executive director of the Franciscan Action Network; Tarunjit Butalia, executive director of Religions for Peace USA; the Rev. Adam Taylor, president of Sojourners; Joyce Ajlouny, general secretary of the American Friends Service Committee; Amelia Keagan, associate general secretary for policy at the Friends Committee On National Legislation; and Eli McCarthy, fellow at the Franciscan Action Network
10 a.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. NW — Hudson Institute discussion on “Integrating a Force for 21st Century Deterrence and Warfighting,” with Jim Taiclet, chairman, president, and CEO of Lockheed Martin, and Bryan Clark, director of the Hudson Center for Defense Concepts and Technology https://www.hudson.org/events/integrating-force-twenty-first-century
10:30 a.m. 37th and O Sts. NW — Georgetown University’s Center for Australian, New Zealand, and Pacific Studies discussion: “Transforming the Indo-Pacific Order: The AUKUS Wager,” with Charles Edel, Australia chairman at the Center for Strategic and International Studies https://www.georgetown.edu/event/transforming-the-indo-pacific-order
1 p.m. — Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft virtual discussion: “Is U.S.-China Conflict Inevitable?” with Michael Beckley, nonresident senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute; Jake Werner, research fellow at the Quincy Institute; and Jessica Tuchman Matthews, fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace https://quincyinst.org/event/is-u-s-china-conflict-inevitable
1 p.m. — Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin meets with Japanese Defense Minister Minoru Kihara at the Pentagon
2:30 p.m. 419 Dirksen — Senate Foreign Relations East Asia, the Pacific, and International Cybersecurity Policy Subcommittee hearing: “Security on the Korean Peninsula,” with testimony from Victor Cha, senior vice president for Asia and Korea chairman at the Center for Strategic and International Studies; Scott Snyder, senior fellow for Korea studies at the Council on Foreign Relations; and Jenny Town, senior fellow and director of the Stimson Center’s 38 North Program https://www.foreign.senate.gov/hearings/security-on-the-korean-peninsula
THURSDAY | OCTOBER 5
9:30 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW — Center for Strategic and International Studies annual “China’s Power: Up for Debate 2023,” with Ely Ratner, assistant secretary of defense for Indo-Pacific security affairs; Michael Beckley, director of the Foreign Policy Research Institute’s Asia Program; Dan Blumenthal, American Enterprise Institute senior fellow; Fiona Cunningham, assistant professor at the University of Pennsylvania; Lonnie Henley, FPRI senior fellow; Phillip Saunders, director of the National Defense University’s Center for the Study of Chinese Military Affairs; Rick Waters, managing director of the Eurasia Group’s China practice; Arne Westad, professor at Yale University’s School of Global Affairs; Tong Zhao, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s Nuclear Policy Program; and Bonny Lin, director of the CSIS China Power Project https://www.csis.org/events/chinas-power-debate-2023
9:30 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “China and Russia’s Role in North Korea’s Human Rights Abuses,” with Sue Mi Terry, Macro Advisory Partners senior adviser; Katrin Fraser Katz, CSIS nonresident adjunct fellow; Victor Cha, CSIS Korea chairman; and Mark Lippert, CSIS nonresident senior adviser https://www.csis.org/events/china-and-russias-role-north-koreas-human-rights-abuses
5 p.m. 1521 16th St. NW — The Institute of World Politics book discussion: Failed State: A Guide to Russia’s Rupture, with author Janusz Bugajski, senior fellow, Jamestown Foundation https://www.iwp.edu/events/the-impact-of-russias-state-failure
QUOTE OF THE DAY “It is going to be difficult for my Republican friends to keep calling President Biden feeble while he continues to take Speaker McCarthy’s lunch money in every negotiation.” Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL), on the House floor, alleging that House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) has cut a secret deal with President Joe Biden to allow a vote on Ukraine aid in return for border security.