Zelensky sacks his defense minister as war enters new phase
Jamie McIntyre
UKRAINE COUNTEROFFENSIVE ACHIEVES ‘NOTABLE PROGRESS’: It’s not the dramatic breakthrough that many were hoping for, but Ukraine’s counteroffensive has made “notable progress” over the past week as its forces steadily advance in the southern Zaporizhzhia region, according to National Security Council spokesman John Kirby.
“They have achieved some success against that second line of Russian defenses,” Kirby told reporters in a teleconference. “Where they go from here and how they exploit that success, I’ll leave to them to discuss. But we have seen some notable progress.”
In an interview with the Guardian, the general leading the southern counteroffensive said his forces have decisively breached Russia’s first defensive line after weeks of painstaking mine clearance. “We are now between the first and second defensive lines,” Brig. Gen. Oleksandr Tarnavskiy told the British newspaper. “We are now completing the destruction of enemy units that provide cover for the retreat of Russian troops behind their second defensive line.”
Notably, Tarnavskiy estimated that “Russia had devoted 60% of its time and resources into building the first defensive line and only 20% each into the second and third lines because Moscow had not expected Ukrainian forces to get through,” according to the Guardian report.
UKRAINE MAKES GAINS AGAINST RUSSIA AND TELLS SKEPTICS TO ‘SHUT UP’
UKRAINE LACKS WHAT IT NEEDS ‘TO MOVE THE NEEDLE’: While Kirby insisted the Ukrainian forces have the “tools, techniques, and training” to continue to make progress, retired Army Brig. Gen. Mark Arnold has become the latest former U.S. commander to argue Ukraine still doesn’t have what it needs to deliver a decisive defeat to dug-in Russian forces.
“The Ukrainians lack the mobility equipment necessary to breach high-density minefields and obstacles. U.S. Army mechanized infantry and armor battalions have tanks with antitank mine blades and heavy rollers in each company team. The Ukrainians do not,” Arnold told Washington Post columnist Max Boot. “If you add all the Bradley Fighting Vehicles, Leopard 2 and Challenger 2 tanks, and other equipment, the Ukrainians could outfit only one brigade,” that simply is not enough, he said, “to move the needle.”
“We’ve all seen the criticism by anonymous officials out there, which, frankly, is not helpful,” Kirby said Friday, in reference to other reports critical of Ukraine’s cautious strategy aimed at limiting casualties. “Piping in from the sidelines and criticizing a partner and a friend as they’re trying to advance forward in bloody, ugly, violent conditions is not helpful to the overall effort. It is just not about them answering our criticisms. It is about us answering their needs to be more successful on the battlefield.”
But Arnold said he is “pleased with the progress the Ukrainians have demonstrated to date,” noting, “The U.S. military would be hard-pressed to achieve much better results without air dominance and long-range artillery systems.”
But Ukraine, Arnold argued, should be in a stronger position next year, when it has F-16s and M1 Abrams tanks. “I remain very skeptical that a decisive battle will occur this year that makes a material effect toward Ukrainian victory. That can happen next summer when the majority of maneuver equipment arrives from NATO into Ukraine.”
REZNIKOV REPLACED: Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov was to be welcomed to the Pentagon by Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin later this week, but he won’t be coming.
On Sunday night, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that after “550 days of full-scale war, I believe that the ministry needs new approaches.” Resnikov submitted his resignation to the Ukrainian parliament yesterday, posting on social media, “It was an honor to serve the Ukrainian people and work for the #UAarmy for the last 22 months, the toughest period of Ukraine’s modern history,”
The move was widely seen as a response to reports of corruption in the Defense Ministry relating to the acquisition of uniforms and supplies, although Reznikov was not implicated in the graft and in a statement to the Washington Post insisted his resignation was “not related to any corruption scandals.”
Zelensky appointed Rustem Umerov, a Crimean Tatar lawmaker, as the new defense minister.
UKRAINE’S ZELENSKY SAYS HE’LL REPLACE DEFENSE MINISTER OLEKSII REZNIKOV
Good Tuesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Conrad Hoyt. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow me on Threads and/or on X @jamiejmcintyre
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HAPPENING TODAY: The Senate is back in session today after a long August recess, and job one is averting a shutdown of the federal government at the end of the month by passing a stopgap continuing resolution to keep government funded while negotiations occur on the 12 appropriations bills.
In a letter to fellow Senate Democrats, Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) called avoiding a shutdown a “top priority.”
“The federal government will shut down in less than a month unless a funding bill is passed by Sept. 30. That’s only 16 legislative days away (and even fewer for the House) under the current schedule,” Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) said on social media. “The House and Senate are in completely different universes when it comes to how lawmakers should fund federal agencies in both the short and long term.”
House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) is facing another revolt from far-right members of his slim Republican majority who are demanding deep cuts and vowing to oppose any short-term measure that continues spending at current levels.
“When government funding runs out on 9/30, simply extending Democrats’ current bloated COVID spending with zero policy reforms is an affirmation of the status quo. Totally out of the question,” the House Freedom Caucus posted on X. “Americans tasked the @HouseGOP with changing the Biden status quo — not continuing it.”
Without the House Freedom Caucus, McCarthy will need Democratic support to pass a continuing resolution that can clear the Senate.
“The truth of the matter is that we can keep the government up and operating. We can get a budget, but it’s going to be without those 100 or 150 most radical Republicans in the House of Representatives,” said Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT) on MSNBC. “There is a coalition of Democrats and a handful of reasonable Republicans in the House, along with the Senate, that can pass a budget. And that really is just a question as to whether Kevin McCarthy is willing to stand up to those right-wingers who are clamoring for impeachment.”
FOUR THINGS HOUSE REPUBLICANS ARE DEMANDING TO AVOID GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN
KIM TO MEET PUTIN: North Korean leader Kim Jong Un may meet with President Vladimir Putin in Moscow in the coming weeks as Putin is seeking ammunition and other military equipment to replenish his depleted arsenal, according to an unnamed U.S. official who spoke to several news organizations yesterday.
The official told the Associated Press the U.S. is unsure of the timing or location of the meeting but noted the Pacific port city of Vladivostok would be a likely possibility given its proximity to North Korea.
Putin is seeking artillery shells and antitank missiles and in return would offer North Korea advanced technology for satellites and nuclear-powered submarines, according to the New York Times.
The expected meeting comes after the White House revealed intelligence last week that suggested arms negotiations between Russia and North Korea were “actively advancing” and that Russian Defense Sergei Shoigu was pressing Pyongyang to sell artillery ammunition to Russia.
“The fact that Russia, which has extensive production capabilities for artillery, weapons as well as ammunition — the fact that they’re scrounging for ammunition from North Korea and others shows how desperate they are, the very high expenditure of ammunition in the Ukraine operations,” said Bruce Klingner, a former CIA deputy division chief for Korea, on CNN. “It most likely would be 122 mm and 152 mm artillery rounds and multiple rocket rounds that they have a lot of and which is compatible with Russian equipment. … The artillery of that ammunition caliber is very old, and as we’ve seen with some operations in Ukraine, it’s unreliable.”
CHINA’S XI JINPING WILL FORGO G20 SUMMIT, MEANING NO BIDEN ENCOUNTER
YET ANOTHER APPEAL TO TUBERVILLE: In what amounts to an open letter to Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-AL), the civilian heads of the Army, Navy, and Air Force are imploring Tuberville to release his stranglehold on more than 300 military promotions and nominations as he battles the Pentagon on abortion travel policies.
“Placing a blanket hold on all general and flag officer nominees, who as apolitical officials have traditionally been exempt from the hold process, is unfair to these military leaders and their families. And it is putting our national security at risk,” wrote Army Secretary Christine Wormuth, Navy Secretary Carlos Del Toro, and Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall in the Washington Post. “Any claim that holding up the promotions of top officers does not directly damage the military is wrong — plain and simple.”
“The impact of this hold does not stop at these officers or their family members. With the promotions of our most senior leaders on hold, there is a domino effect upending the lives of our more junior officers, too,” they argued. “The generals and admirals who will be leading our forces a decade from now are colonels and captains today. They are watching this spectacle and might conclude that their service at the highest ranks of our military is no longer valued by members of Congress or, by extension, the American public.”
VIVEK RAMASWAMY BECOMES LATEST GOP PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE TO BACK TUBERVILLE MILITARY HOLD
The Rundown
Washington Examiner: Ukraine’s Zelensky says he’ll replace Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov
Washington Examiner: Ukraine makes gains against Russia and tells skeptics to ‘shut up’
Washington Examiner: Heritage Foundation head defends think tank’s Reaganite credentials on Ukraine aid
Washington Examiner: Pence accuses Ramaswamy of flip-flopping on foreign policy
Washington Examiner: Nikki Haley condemns older politicians who ‘refuse to give up power’
Washington Examiner: China’s Xi Jinping will forgo G20 summit, meaning no Biden encounter
Washington Examiner: Blinken’s new China point man? Veteran with bipartisan respect who sees ‘true nature of regime’
Washington Examiner: US counterterrorism abilities in Afghanistan questioned two years after Biden’s withdrawal
Washington Examiner: Afghan special visa program overwhelmed two years after US withdrawal: Watchdog
Washington Examiner: Schiff predicts government shutdown will occur as McCarthy aims to keep speakership
Washington Examiner: Four things House Republicans are demanding to avoid government shutdown
Washington Examiner: Vivek Ramaswamy becomes latest GOP presidential candidate to back Tuberville military hold
Washington Post: Marines’ top general ‘ruthlessly’ rides out Tuberville’s military hold
Washington Post: Kim Jong Un to meet with Putin in Russia, U.S. official says; Kremlin to stay out of grain deal
Wall Street Journal: Chinese Gate-Crashers at US Bases Spark Espionage Concerns
Bloomberg: Biden’s Strategy Toward China Is ‘Doomed to Fail,’ Beijing Says
Breaking Defense: New Chinese 10-Dash Map Sparks Furor Across Indo-Pacific: Vietnam, India, Philippines, Malaysia
New York Times: Graft Continues To Be A Fight, And A Headache, For Ukraine
AP: Putin has dashed global hopes for reviving the Ukraine grain deal. This is why it matters
Reuters: Turkey’s Erdogan Says Black Sea Grain Deal Can Be Restored Soon
NBC News: Pentagon Officials Debate Whether To Replace Extra U.S. Troops Deployed To Eastern Europe Or Bring Them Home
The Hill: GOP Plays Up Pentagon Accounting Woes Ahead Of Ukraine Spending Fight
AP: Upward of 20,000 Ukrainian amputees face trauma on a scale unseen since WWI
CNN: Pentagon: Russian Fighter Jets Approached U.S. And Coalition Aircraft Over Syria 7 Times In August – At Times Within 1,000 Feet
Air & Space Forces Magazine: As Ukraine Prepares to Get F-16s, US Provides AMRAAM Missiles
USNI News: Japan Releases $53B Defense Budget Focused On Shipbuilding, Fighters
Air & Space Forces Magazine: F-15EX Finishes First Phase of Integrated Testing With JASSM Shot
The War Zone: Iran Receives Russian Yak-130 Advanced Trainer Jets
Defense One: The Pentagon’s Innovation Arm Has a New Chief and a New Strategy
Defense News: Missile Defense Agency Cancels Test of Long-Range Discrimination Radar
DefenseScoop: Inside the DOD’s Trusted AI and Autonomy Tech Review That Brought Together Hundreds of Experts
AP: Japan’s Top Court Orders Okinawa to Allow a Divisive Government Plan to Build US Military Runways
Space News: DOD Satellites in Low Earth Orbit Promise More Connectivity for Military Users
Breaking Defense: Russia Spikes UN Effort on Norms to Reduce Space Threats
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Space Force Joins US-ROK Joint Drill for the First Time; B-1 Participates As Well
Inside Defense: Air Force Plans to Collaborate with Industry on Tanker Recapitalization Program
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Can This New Simulator Be a Proving Ground for JADC2?
19fortyfive.com: Ukraine Has Won the Battle to Penetrate Russia’s First Defensive Belt (What Happens Now?)
19fortyfive.com: “Starve, Stretch, and Strike”: How Ukraine Plans to Beat Putin
19fortyfive.com: The U.S. Navy Needs Sentinel-Class Cutters to Serve as Missile Patrol Craft
SLDinfo: Re-Working American Defense: Critical Prior to Any Ramp Up of Defense Spending
The Cipher Brief: The British Betrayal of an Afghan Special Police Commando Force
Washington Post: Opinion: Opinion Ukraine may have a better chance to win in 2024, a retired U.S. general says
Washington Post: Opinion: Three service secretaries to Tuberville: Stop this dangerous hold on senior officers
Calendar
TUESDAY | SEPTEMBER 5
12 p.m. — Federalist Society for Law and Public Policy Studies virtual forum: “Big Data and the Law of War,” focusing on “the possibility of a nation-state cyber operation attacking Big Data and having a major detrimental impact on the functioning of another nation-state,” with John Eisenberg, former deputy counsel to the president and legal adviser to the National Security Council; Paul Stephan, professor of law at the University of Virginia School of Law; and Vince Vitkowsky, partner at Gfeller Laurie https://fedsoc.org/events/2023-annual-mike-lewis-memorial
12:30 p.m. 14th and F Sts. NW — National Press Club “Newsmaker Luncheon” with Nobel Peace Prize laureate Maria Ressa on threats facing press freedom worldwide. https://www.press.org/events/npc-headliners-luncheon-maria-ressa
2:30 p.m. 1957 E St. NW — George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs book discussion: The Zelensky Effect, with co-author Henry Hale, professor of political science and international affairs at GWU, and co-author Olga Onuch, professor of comparative and Ukrainian politics at the University of Manchester https://calendar.gwu.edu/event/the_zelensky_effect_book_launch
3:30 p.m. East Room, White House — President Joe Biden bestows the Medal of Honor on Capt. Larry Lowe Taylor for his conspicuous gallantry and intrepidity at the risk of life above and beyond the call of duty on the night of June 12, 1968, near the village of Ap Go Cong, Bình Duog province
5 p.m. 1521 16th Street NW — The Institute of World Politics book discussion: Why Ukraine Must Win, with author Thomas Cromwell, former publisher and editor of the Middle East Times https://www.iwp.edu/events/why-ukraine-must-win
WEDNESDAY | SEPTEMBER 6
9 a.m. — Defense News conference “Fireside Chat,” with Gen. Eric Smith, assistant Marine Corps commandant: Ely Ratner, assistant secretary of defense for Indo-Pacific security affairs; Gen. Mark Kelly, commander, Air Combat Command; and Lt. Gen. James Slife, Air Force deputy chief of staff for operations https://conference.defensenews.com
9:30 a.m. — Stimson Center virtual discussion: “Nuclear Security for Nuclear Newcomers: Exploring Turkey’s Readiness,” with World Institute for Nuclear Security Ambassador to Turkey Ali Alkis and George Foster, director of Amport Risk Limited https://www.stimson.org/event/nuclear-security-for-nuclear-newcomers
9:30 a.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW — Brookings Institution book discussion on Japan’s Quiet Leadership: Reshaping the Indo-Pacific, with author Mireya Solis, director of the Brookings Center for East Asia Policy Studies; Kurt Tong, managing partner at the Asia Group and former consul general of the United States to Hong Kong and Macau; Yuichi Hosoya, professor of international politics at Keio University; and Demetri Sevastopulo, U.S.-China correspondent at the Financial Times https://www.brookings.edu/events/japans-quiet-leadership-reshaping-the-indo-pacific
11:30 a.m. 1030 15th St. NW — Atlantic Council discussion on “current challenges facing the homeland security intelligence enterprise,” with Homeland Security Undersecretary for Intelligence and Analysis Kenneth Wainstein https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/a-conversation-with-kenneth-wainstein
10:30 a.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. NW — Hudson Institute in-person discussion: “Gaining Ground in the Pacific: The US Army’s Role in Campaigning against China,” with Gen. Charles Flynn, commanding general, U.S. Army, Pacific; Bryan Clark, Hudson senior fellow and director, Center for Defense Concepts and Technology; and Dan Patt, senior fellow, Center for Defense Concepts and Technology https://www.hudson.org/events/gaining-ground-pacific-us-army-role
3 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW — Center for Strategic and International Studies discussion: “Acquisition for Innovation,” with Radha Iyengar Plumb, deputy undersecretary of defense for acquisition and sustainment https://www.csis.org/events/acquisition-innovation-conversation
5:30 p.m. 730 11th St. NW — Pentagon Memorial Fund public meeting on proposal to construct and operate a visitor education center for the existing 9/11 Pentagon Memorial on the grounds of Arlington National Cemetery.
THURSDAY | SEPTEMBER 7
8:30 a.m. — Government Executive Media Group’s NextGov/Federal Computer Week virtual forum: “Cyber Defenders” https://events.nextgov.com/cyberdefenders
11 a.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. NW — Hudson Institute discussion: “Euro-Atlantic and Indo-Pacific Security Ties,” with U.K. Defence Staff Chief Adm. Tony Radakin https://www.hudson.org/events/euro-atlantic-indo-pacific-security
11 a.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW — Brookings Institution discussion: “Should the U.S. Pursue a New Cold War with China?” with Jessica Chen Weiss, professor for China and Asia-Pacific studies at Cornell University; former Assistant Defense Secretary for International Security Affairs Joseph Nye; Matthew Turpin, visiting fellow at the Hoover Institution; and Demetri Sevastopulo, U.S.-China correspondent at the Financial Times https://www.brookings.edu/events/should-the-us-pursue-a-new-cold-war-with-china/
12 p.m. — Association of the U.S. Army Noon Report webinar: “Lessons for Veterans Seeking to Earn Their Degrees,” with author John Davis, former infantry squad leader in the 101st Airborne Division https://www.ausa.org/events/noon-report-combat-college
FRIDAY | SEPTEMBER 8
11 a.m. — Foundation for Defense of Democracies book discussion: Beijing Rules: How China Weaponized Its Economy to Confront the World, with Axios China reporter Bethany Allen-Ebrahimian; Liza Tobin, senior director for economy, Special Competitive Studies Project.; F. Scott Kieff, former commissioner, U.S. International Trade Commission; and Craig Singleton, FDD senior fellow https://forms.monday.com/forms
12 p.m. New York, NY— Korea Society’s Policy and Education Department discussion: “Chinese Views of North Korea’s Uncertain Future,” with Sungmin Cho, professor at the Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies, a U.S. Defense Department institution; and Jonathan Corrado, Korea Society policy director https://docs.google.com/forms
QUOTE OF THE DAY “I find it frustrating, and the Ukrainians find it excruciating, that the West has the ability to do so much more to help end the war, but we’re not doing it.” Retired U.S. Army Brig. Gen. Mark Arnold, in an interview with Washington Post columnist Max Boot, blaming the Biden administration and U.S. allies for the slow pace of the Ukrainian counteroffensive