US second-guessing of Ukraine’s counteroffensive strategy is ‘military malpractice,’ says architect of 2007 Iraq surge
Jamie McIntyre
‘MILITARY MALPRACTICE’: Armchair generals in and out of government should stop “chirping from the sidelines” and let Ukraine fight the Russian invaders in the way they think best, says the four-star Army general who advocated the 2007 troop surge credited with turning the tide of the battle in Iraq. In an opinion piece in the Wall Street Journal, retired Gen. Jack Keane, former Army vice chief of staff, calls the frustration by some U.S. military officers over the way Ukraine is conducting its counteroffensive “alarming.”
“U.S. military experts appear to want the Ukrainians to hold on all other fronts and focus on a single thrust toward Melitopol. Such advice is military malpractice,” writes Keane, who is chairman of the board of directors of the Institute for the Study of War. “No one in the American military today has designed large-scale mechanized operations against a serious and capable enemy that is employing a comprehensive defense. The last time was the Metz campaign in France in 1944, led by Gen. George S. Patton.”
“American officers appear to have unrealistic expectations of what a single counteroffensive operation can achieve,” he says. “America should stop the criticism about what Ukraine is doing and focus instead on helping Ukraine achieve our common aims as rapidly as possible. That would be sound strategy.”
‘STRETCH, STARVE, AND STRIKE’: Keane says Ukraine is wisely employing a strategy dubbed “stretch, starve, and strike” by Britain’s top military officer, Adm. Tony Radakin, chief of the U.K. defense staff.
“Well-designed mechanized campaigns almost always advance on multiple axes rather than one,” Keane says. A southern thrust toward Melitopol is the shortest route to the Sea of Azov, which makes it the most obvious place for Russia to concentrate their defenses. But Ukraine’s strategy has tied down Russian forces along a vast 600-mile front.
“They haven’t sent more reinforcements, in part because Ukrainian attacks have pinned them all along the line,” Keane argues. “The much-condemned Ukrainian counteroffensive around Bakhmut has drawn elements of multiple Russian airborne divisions and separate brigades to hold the line there … Those units had been fighting in Luhansk and Kharkiv oblasts and would have been available to reinforce the Melitopol axis. Now they are being ground down around Bakhmut because the Ukrainians keep pushing on a city that the Russians aren’t prepared to lose.”
DOES THE US WANT UKRAINE TO WIN? Keane says the pressure on Ukraine to focus on capturing Melitopol raises questions about how seriously the U.S. is committed to total victory for Ukraine.
“The seizure of Melitopol on its own can’t win the war for Ukraine. The demands that Ukraine focus everything on that drive, combined with warnings that the West won’t restock Ukraine for future operations, suggest that at least some of those criticizing the Ukrainian offensive aren’t serious about helping Ukraine liberate all its territory,” he writes.
On CNN yesterday, Sen. Chris Coons (D-DE), who often speaks on behalf of the Biden administration, said the U.S. needs to continue to signal “unwavering support” for Ukraine’s military objectives, while hoping “exhaustion on the battlefield will lead to Putin suing for a ceasefire.”
“In any event, we’re going to have to provide long-term security guarantees for Ukraine so that Russia doesn’t simply re-arm, retrain, re-equip and relaunch an offensive further into Ukraine,” Coons said. “Exactly what the contours of that will look like is something that our NATO allies have been discussing closely with the United States and with President Zelensky.”
PUTIN’S TRUNCATED TRAVEL SCHEDULE SHOWS FEAR OF EMBARRASSMENT AND BETRAYAL
Good Wednesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Conrad Hoyt. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow me on Threads and/or on X @jamiejmcintyre
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HAPPENING TODAY: The latest battlefield assessment from the Institute for the Study of War suggests that Russia is marshaling its forces to try to stop the Ukrainian advance at Robotyne, the village it liberated this week.
“A Russian milblogger suggested that Russian forces are continuing to commit a significant number of reserves, Airborne elements, and TOS-1 thermobaric artillery systems to the area — likely indicating that Russian forces are worried about the vulnerability of their positions,” the ISW reported. “Another Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces intend to deplete Ukrainian offensive potential by fixing Ukrainian forces in engagements in the settlement of Robotyne.”
Robotyne is about 15 miles up the highway from Tokmak, the next strategic objective on the road to Melitopol and the Sea of Azov. “Ukrainian forces continued to secure positions in Robotyne and are demining the area,” the ISW quoted a Ukrainian military spokesman as saying.
FLAGGING MORALE: The British Defense Ministry has released another intelligence assessment that claims Russia is now sending hundreds of soldiers who are refusing to fight to prison camps.
“The Mediazona news outlet reported that Russia was convicting close to 100 soldiers a week for refusing to fight. If this trend continues, there will be approximately 5,200 convictions a year for refusing to fight,” the U.K. assessment reported. “The high rate of convictions demonstrates the poor state of morale in the Russian Army and the reluctance of some elements to fight.”
“Russia has adapted its approach to warfare by utilizing sheer mass for offensive and defensive operations,” the assessment concluded. “Although some soldiers have refused to fight and attrition rates remain high, Russia highly likely mitigates their loss by committing a mass of poorly trained soldiers to the frontline.”
MORE AMMO, MATERIEL ON THE WAY: The Pentagon has announced the latest drawdown of military equipment and ammunition for Ukraine, the 45th arms package to come directly from DOD inventories.
The package, valued at $250 million, includes AIM-9M Sidewinder missiles for air defense, munitions for HIMARS [High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems], 155mm and 105mm artillery ammunition, mine-clearing equipment, Javelin and other anti-armor systems and rockets, over three million rounds of small arms ammunition, ambulances, demolition munitions for obstacle clearing, as well as spare parts.
The Pentagon insists the shipments are not depleting U.S. stocks to the point it jeopardizes America’s ability to fight a war.
“Every item that is decided and taken from the U.S. stock and provided to the Ukrainians, the chairman [of the Joint Chiefs] and secretary [of defense] go through it, and they look exactly at what is the effect for readiness. And if they think it’s any impact, negative on readiness, or increases risk … we won’t do it,” William LaPlante, the Pentagon’s top acquisition official, said at a conference Monday. “So, by definition, if it’s taken out of drawdown, the assessment’s been made, we can do it and we can manage the risk.”
TAKING DOWN QAKBOT: The Justice Department is calling it the largest U.S.-led financial and technical disruption of a botnet used by cybercriminals to commit ransomware attacks.
The botnet and malware known as Qakbot primarily infects victim computers through spam email messages containing malicious attachments or hyperlinks. Once a computer is compromised, Qakbot can install ransomware, locking the contents until a payment in cryptocurrency is made.
“The Qakbot malicious code is being deleted from victim computers, preventing it from doing any more harm,” the Justice Department said in a press release, in which it also announced the recovery of approximately $8.6 million in extorted funds.
The multinational operation included the United States, France, Germany, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, Romania, and Latvia.
“Together with our international partners, the Justice Department has hacked Qakbot’s infrastructure, launched an aggressive campaign to uninstall the malware from victim computers in the United States and around the world,” Attorney General Merrick Garland said in the release.
FBI LAUNCHES ‘OPERATION DUCK HUNT’ TO DISRUPT QAKBOT MALWARE NETWORK
GOLD STAR OUTRAGE: At a House Foreign Affairs Committee roundtable organized by Chairman Michael McCaul (R-TX), Gold Star families who lost loved ones in the suicide bombing at the Kabul airport two years ago vented about what many said has been a cover-up by the Biden administration.
Among their questions was why no action was taken when one of the Marines at the Abbey Gate believed he spotted the suicide bomber in the crowd. “I want to know where those mistakes were and why they happened the way that they happened,” said Darin Hoover, Gold Star father of Marine Staff Sgt. Taylor Hoover on Fox before the hearing. “I mean, my goodness, we’ve had now three chances to take out this bomber and didn’t take those chances. Why? Why was that not done?”
“It’s a cover-up … it was an orchestrated nightmare,” Hoover said.
“Two years have gone by and where are we? To be frank, we’re knee-deep in bulls*** is where we are,” said Mark Schmitz, the father of Marine Corps Lance Cpl. Jared Schmitz. “Everyone who held a key position in the military still has that position or has been promoted.”
In a statement to Fox News read at the hearing, Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Mark Milley called the deaths of the 13 service members “a personal thing for all of us in uniform.”
“We don’t like what happened in Afghanistan. We don’t like the outcome of Afghanistan. We owe it to the families to take care of them. Their sacrifices were not in vain,” Milley said. “We owe Gold Star families everything. We owe them transparency, we owe them honesty, we owe them accountability… “I trust the Army, Navy, and Marine Corps did the best they could in briefing the families who had loved ones killed at Abbey Gate. I believe the briefers gave every piece of information that they could. If there was issues with that, we need to take whatever corrective action is necessary.”
‘KNEE-DEEP IN BULLS***’: ABBEY GATE GOLD STAR FAMILIES DEMAND ANSWERS ON CAPITOL HILL
The Rundown
Washington Examiner: Biden administration sends $250 million more to Ukraine, taking advantage of Pentagon accounting error
Washington Examiner: Putin’s truncated travel schedule shows fear of embarrassment and betrayal
Washington Examiner: Paul Whelan featured in a rare video from Russian penal colony
Washington Examiner: ‘Knee-deep in bulls***’: Abbey Gate Gold Star families demand answers on Capitol Hill
Washington Examiner: FBI launches ‘Operation Duck Hunt’ to disrupt Qakbot malware network
Washington Examiner: Germany arrests man accused of illegally exporting components for drones to Russia
Washington Examiner: Pence rolls out ‘day one executive actions’ focused on rebuilding military
Washington Examiner: China looks ‘uninvestable’ due to political risks, Raimondo says
Washington Examiner: Meta unveils covert China-driven ‘spamouflage’ operation to undermine United States
Washington Post: Prigozhin Buried In Secret, Underlining Unease In Russia
New York Times: The Object Of Ukraine’s Desire: F-16’s From The West. But It’s Tricky.
The Atlantic: The Final Days: Joe Biden was determined to get out of Afghanistan — no matter the cost.
Defense One: Air Force Expanding Number of Bases in Pacific over Next Decade
The Drive: Blind, See, Kill: The Grand Networking Plan To Take On China
USNI News: U.S., South Korea, Japan Hold Joint Ballistic Missile Defense Drills After Failed North Korea Launch
Breaking Defense: New AUKUS Tech Announcement Coming in Fall, Pentagon’s Tech Chief Says
Breaking Defense: Co-Everything: Pentagon Teases Series of Weapon Production Partnerships with Friendly Nations
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Air Force and Army Collaborate on Air Defense That’s Smaller and Cheaper for the Indo-Pacific
Aviation Week: US Navy’s F/A-XX in Design Maturation, Competing Companies Announced
Forbes: Indonesia’s Purchase Of F-15EX Fighters Is A Breakthrough For Boeing And The Biden Administration
Space News: SAIC Wins $574 Million Contract to Maintain Space Force Radar Sites
Defense News: Four-Star Panel to Weigh in on Pentagon’s Rapid Experiments
DefenseScoop: The Computers Are Getting Fixed: DOD Standing Up a User Experience Portfolio Management Office
Military.com: The Navy’s Top Enlisted Sailor Is Targeting Hazing To Combat Leadership Problems
New York Times: Opinion: Why Is the Reputation of the US Military Going South So Fast?
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Space Force Tries Out a ‘Unique’ Approach for Developing New Tactics
The Cipher Brief: Rethinking How the Pentagon Spends its Money is Mission Critical
The Cipher Brief: Are U.S. Taxpayers Unintentionally Funding China’s Military Development
Calendar
WEDNESDAY | AUGUST 30
8 a.m. 2101 Wilson Blvd. Arlington, Virginia — National Defense Industrial Association conference: “Emerging Technologies For Defense,” with Steve Wax, performing the duties of assistant defense secretary for science and technology; Lt. Col. Gabriela Arraiz, deputy CTO of the Joint Special Operations Command; Laura Taylor Kale, assistant secretary of defense for industrial base policy; Dev Shenoy, principal director of microelectronics in the Office of the Undersecretary of Defense for Research and Engineering; and Chris Miller, author of Chip War: The Fight for the World’s Most Critical Technology. RSVP: [email protected]
9:30 a.m. — Stimson Center virtual discussion: “Security Dynamics in Southern Asia — Views from Rising Analysts,” with Riya Sinha, associate fellow at the Centre for Social and Economic Progress; Noorulain Naseem, research associate at the Islamabad Policy Research Institute; Namra Naseer, research associate at National Defense University’s Institute for Strategic Studies, Research and Analysis; and Rushali Saha, senior research associate at the Council for Strategic and Defense Research https://www.stimson.org/event/security-dynamics-in-southern-asia
10 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies conference call briefing: “Previewing the 2023 G20, U.S.-ASEAN, and East Asia Summits,” with Richard Rossow, CSIS chairman in U.S.-India policy studies; Stephanie Segal, CSIS senior fellow; and Gregory Poling, director of the CSIS Southeast Asia Program https://www.csis.org/events/press-briefing
10:30 a.m. — 1775 Massachusetts Ave. N.W. — Brookings Institution’s Hutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy and Strobe Talbott Center for Security, Strategy, and Technology in-person and virtual event: “How much money for defense is enough?” with Michael O’Hanlon, director, Talbott Center; Mackenzie Eaglen, senior fellow, American Enterprise Institute; and Travis Sharp, senior fellow and director of defense budget studies, Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments https://connect.brookings.edu/register-to-watch-how-much-money-for-defense
11 a.m. 1401 Pennsylvania Ave. NW — National Defense Industrial Association National Training and Simulation Association virtual discussion: “Generative AI and Training: It’s Here. Now What?” with Keith Brawner, senior researcher and program manager of U.S. Army Futures Command’s Simulation and Training Technology Center; Andy Van Schaack, associate professor at Vanderbilt University; and Svitlana Volkova, chief computational scientist at the Aptima Office of Science and Technology https://www.ntsa.org/events/2023/8/30/ntsa-august-webinar/registration
THURSDAY | AUGUST 31
8:30 a.m. — Government Executive Media Group NextGov/Federal Computer Week “Data and Analytics Summit,” with Cameron Chehreh, vice president of sales and marketing group and general manager for the public sector at Intel; Eileen Vidrine, Air Force chief data and artificial intelligence officer; Zach Whitman, chief data officer at the General Services Administration; Oliver Wise, chief data officer of the Commerce Department https://events.nextgov.com/data-and-analytics-summit/
QUOTE OF THE DAY “I was born with Nikki on my birth certificate. I was raised as Nikki. I married a Haley. And so that is what my name is. So he can say or misspell or do whatever he wants, but he can’t step away from the fact that, look, he’s the one that said he was going to abandon Israel.” Nikki Haley, Republican presidential candidate, reacting to Vikek Ramaswamy referring to her as Nimarata Randhawa, and accusing her of lying about his position on Israel