The great debate: Ukraine is winning, no it’s not, yes it is
Jamie McIntyre
IS UKRAINE WINNING? A year and a half after Russia invaded Ukraine with hopes of toppling its democratically-elected pro-Western government and quickly subdued the populace, the war is grinding on with Ukraine slowly clawing back territory in its south and east where beleaguered Russian conscripts are manning a long line of fortified trenches and tank traps.
The toll of the war has been staggering. Large areas of Ukraine, including several cities, have been reduced to rubble, and the combined combat casualty count is nearing 500,000. U.S. officials have told the New York Times that Russian casualties are approaching 300,000, with 120,000 deaths and 170,000 to 180,000 wounded. Ukraine is said to have suffered close to 70,000 killed and between 100,000 and 120,000 wounded.
While Ukraine has failed to repeat the dramatic gains of last year, its now better-equipped forces are making methodical progress against Russian forces while using long-range weapons to cut their supply lines.
“We continue to see fighting all along the forward line of troops, with the Ukrainians making some forward movement,” said spokesman Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder at yesterday’s Pentagon briefing. “We’ve said from the very beginning that this is going to be a very tough and difficult operation and a difficult fight for them.”
“I’m not going to get into providing scores in the middle of their fight. Again, that would be inappropriate,” Ryder said. “Combat by its very nature is very dynamic, it’s very fluid, and it’s unpredictable, and any student of history would know that the battle’s not over until it’s over.”
UKRAINE WAR IS NOT A STALEMATE, SULLIVAN ARGUES
SPREAD TOO THIN? Ukraine is not making faster progress in its goal of severing Russia’s land bridge to Crimea and the south because “it has too many troops, including some of its best combat units, in the wrong places,” American and other Western officials have told the New York Times.
“Another U.S. official said the Ukrainians were too spread out and needed to consolidate their combat power in one place,” the report said, describing U.S. intelligence and military officials as “perplexed” with Ukraine’s fixation on liberating the largely destroyed eastern town of Bakhmut, which is of limited strategic value to the overall goal. “American planners have advised Ukraine to concentrate on the front driving toward Melitopol, Kyiv’s top priority, and on punching through Russian minefields and other defenses, even if the Ukrainians lose more soldiers and equipment in the process.”
Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War disagreed with the criticism, noting that “Ukrainian offensive operations in other sectors of the front remain important because they can fix Russian units in place and prevent further lateral reinforcements.”
“Ukrainian offensive operations around Bakhmut have fixed elements of multiple Russian airborne divisions and separate brigades in that area …rendering them likely unavailable to stiffen Russian resistance in the south,” the ISW said in its latest assessment. “Criticisms of continued Ukrainian efforts in other sectors and calls for Ukraine to concentrate all available reserves on a single axis are thus problematic.”
LAUNCHING STRIKES FROM INSIDE RUSSIA: An intelligence assessment from the British Defense Ministry has concluded that Ukraine not only destroyed a Russian strategic (nuclear capable) bomber but it launched the drone strike from inside Russian territory,
Pictures of the fireball at a Russian air base in the Novgorod region appeared on social media Monday.
“On 19 August 2023, a Tu-22M3 BACKFIRE medium bomber of Russia’s Long Range Aviation (LRA) was highly likely destroyed at Soltsky-2 Airbase in Novgorod Oblast, 650 km (400 miles) away from Ukraine’s border,” the British ministry said in a post on X, noting “a copter-style uncrewed aerial vehicle” was believed to have been used in the attack.
“If true, this adds weight to the assessment that some UAV attacks against Russian military targets are being launched from inside Russian territory. Copter UAVs are unlikely to have the range to reach Soltsky-2 from outside Russia,” the post said. “This is at least the third successful attack on LRA airfields, again raising questions about Russia’s ability to protect strategic locations deep inside the country.”
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Good Wednesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Conrad Hoyt. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow me on Threads and/or on X @jamiejmcintyre
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HAPPENING TONIGHT: The Republican National Committee’s first presidential primary debate in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, will be broadcast on Fox News at 9 p.m. EDT. Eight contenders will share the stage, but not the overwhelming frontrunner, former President Donald Trump, who has declined to participate, arguing the voters already know who he is and what he stands for.
The eight participants are former Vice President Mike Pence, Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC), Gov. Doug Burgum (R-ND), Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL), former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, former U.N. Ambassador and South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, and Vivek Ramaswamy, former pharmaceutical executive.
The debate will be moderated by Bret Baier, chief political correspondent for Fox News, and Martha MacCallum, news host at Fox News. The livestream can be found at https://rumble.com/c/GOP.
UP FOR DEBATE: TRUMP, DESANTIS AND 2024 GOP HOPEFULS’ STANCE ON MILITARY AND UKRAINE
‘A BRAZEN ATTEMPT TO CIRCUMVENT CONGRESS’: Republicans on the Senate Armed Services Committee, led by Sen. Roger Wicker (R-MS), are accusing the Biden administration of selling off unused construction materials for the southern border wall in an effort to liquidate the inventory before the “FINISH IT Act” can take effect. The “FINISH IT Act,” part of the pending 2024 National Defense Authorization Act, would require the Pentagon to use the construction materials to secure the southwest border as originally intended or to transfer them to border states for that purpose.
“We are deeply disappointed to learn that rather than using construction materials that were purchased to secure the southwest border for that purpose, the Department of Defense has begun auctioning these materials off for other purposes,” said the GOP senators in a letter to Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin. “These auctions represent a brazen attempt to circumvent the FINISH IT Act, which was included in both the House and Senate FY2024 National Defense Authorization Act.”
The letter, signed by a dozen senators, demanded that the Pentagon “suspend all auctions of border wall construction materials” and provide “a full account of the Department’s disposal of border wall construction materials thus far.”
WHITE HOUSE AUCTIONS OFF UNFINISHED PARTS OF BORDER WALL
DOES THE IRAN HOSTAGE DEAL INCLUDE A NUCLEAR ‘UNDERSTANDING’? Republicans in Congress are increasingly concerned that the deal the Biden administration is trying to complete with Iran to secure the release of five Americans in return for $6 billion in frozen oil revenues also includes a secret, informal understanding of Iran’s nuclear program.
In a letter to President Joe Biden, House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA), House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Michael McCaul (R-TX), and House Republican Conference Chairwoman Elise Stefanik (R-NY) cited a Wall Street Journal report that Iran has “diluted a small amount of 60% enriched uranium in recent weeks and slowed the rate at which it is accumulating new material.”
“This strongly suggests your Administration has contemporaneously brokered a $6 billion prisoner deal and a nuclear ‘understanding’ with the regime that are inextricably linked,” the lawmakers wrote. “This would be a clear violation of your Administration’s legal obligation under the Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act of 2015, which requires you to submit any ‘agreement related to the nuclear program of Iran’ requiring U.S. action …to Congress for formal review within five days.”
“I have grave concerns about President Biden’s possible covert nuclear agreement with Iran and his decision not to inform Congress of such a deal, which violates U.S. law,” said Stefanik.
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The Rundown
Washington Examiner: Ukraine war is not a stalemate, Sullivan argues
Washington Examiner: Conservative group to debut ad opposing Ukraine aid during RNC debate preshow
Washington Examiner: Opinion: Aid debates are necessary, but the Heritage Foundation shouldn’t pretend Ukraine is a peaceful oasis
Washington Examiner: Sen. Ben Cardin says defense supplemental needed next month amid spending fight
Washington Examiner: Alabama lawmaker, chairman of Armed Services Committee, wants Space Command answers
Washington Examiner: Rep. Ronny Jackson warns of challenge to McCarthy speakership if he neglects conservatives
Washington Examiner: Michael McCaul urges more transparency in suspension of Iran envoy Robert Malley
Washington Examiner: Navy relieves commander of Japan-based destroyer USS Howard
Washington Examiner: US sanctions Chinese officials over ‘forcible assimilation’ of Tibetan children
Washington Examiner: Do Biden’s latest fuel economy standards hurt national security?
Washington Examiner: Biden DOJ takes Abbott to court to take down border buoys
Washington Examiner: Key witness in Trump Mar-a-Lago documents case retracted ‘prior false statement’: Jack Smith
Washington Examiner: Opinion: Biden’s hostage deal would boost Iran’s threats
Washington Examiner: Book review: The Real Special Relationship unveils a great alliance of spies
Washington Examiner: Opinion: Vivek Ramaswamy’s foreign policy is clueless and dangerous
AP: Russia launches 3-hour drone attack on Odesa as Ukrainian drones target Moscow again
New York Times: Ukraine’s Forces and Firepower Are Misallocated, U.S. Officials Say
Wall Street Journal: Ukraine’s Reset: A Slow And Bloody Advance On Foot
Washington Post: Russian Sabotage Foiled In Poland
AP: Poland Says Russia’s Moving Tactical Nuclear Weapons To Belarus
AP: Chinese coast guard blocks Philippine vessels near disputed shoal but two supply boats breach cordon
Reuters: On Frontline Island With China, Taiwan President Says Peace Comes Through Strength
New York Times: Commerce Secretary Is Going To China
USNI News: New Report Warns U.S., Allies Of Two Front War With China, North Korea
Air & Space Forces Magazine: USAFE Boss Says Counter-IADS is His Top Priority and Lesson from Ukraine
AP: State Department renews ban on use of US passports for travel to North Korea
Breaking Defense: How DOD Is Thinking ‘Outside the Box’ to Solve Its Cyber Workforce Challenges
Defense One: New Chinese Research Examines How to Get Drones to Target Without GPS
Inside Defense: Contracts Support F-35 Joint Strike Fighters
Breaking Defense: Top Guard Space Officer Fears Readiness Loss as Space and Air Force Processes Diverge
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Trace Amounts of Hazardous Chemicals Found at 2nd Missile Base
Navy Times: USS Howard Sustained ‘Soft Grounding’ Near Bali Ahead Of Port Visit
Space News: Umbra Selected to Demonstrate Space-Based Radar to Track Moving Targets
Air & Space Forces Magazine: USAF, DOD Press Forward With Changes to Medical Services—But Questions Remain
19fortyfive.com: F-15EX Eagle II: The Fighter, The Air Force Needs, Has Now ‘Arrived’
Calendar
WEDNESDAY | AUGUST 23
10 a.m. — George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs virtual discussion: “Central Asia: A Loophole for Russia’s Sanctions?” with Leila Seiitbek, chairwoman of Freedom for Eurasia; Thomas Mayne, research fellow at Oxford University; Nurul Rakhimbek, political activist and researcher; and Sebastien Peyrouse, director of the GWU Central Asia Program and research professor at the GWU Institute for European, Russian, and Eurasian Studies https://www.eventbrite.com/e/central-asia-a-loophole-for-russias-sanctions
10:30 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “The Department of Defense’s Biodefense Posture Review,” with Deborah Rosenblum, assistant secretary of defense for nuclear, chemical, and biological defense programs; Brandi Vann, principal deputy assistant secretary of defense for nuclear, chemical, and biological defense programs; Richard Johnson, deputy assistant secretary of defense for nuclear and countering weapons of mass destruction policy; Asha George, executive director of the Bipartisan Commission on Biodefense; and moderated by retired Rear Adm. Tom Cullison, CSIS senior associate https://www.csis.org/events/department-defenses-newly-released-biodefense-posture-review
THURSDAY | AUGUST 24
10 a.m. — Asia Society Policy Institute virtual discussion: “China’s Generative AI and AI Technology Landscape: Advancements, Players, and Policies,” with Karen Hao, former tech reporter, Wall Street Journal; Zeyi Yang, tech reporter at MIT Technology Review; Jenny Xiao, partner at Leonis Capital; Qiheng Chen, honorary junior fellow for Chinese economy and technology at ASPI’s Center for China Analysis and senior analyst at Compass Lexecon; and Lizzi Lee, honorary junior fellow for Chinese economy at ASPI’s Center for China Analysis https://asiasociety.zoom.us/webinar/register
1:30 p.m. — Government Executive Media Group and the Advanced Technology Academic Research Center virtual discussion: “Strengthening Federal Software Infrastructure: Importance of SBOM Compliance Standards,” with Senior Master Sgt. William Rouse, section chief of digital infrastructure at the Space Force’s Chief of Technology and Innovation Office; Luci Holemans, cybersecurity manager at the Transportation Department’s Air Traffic Organization; Elena Peterson, senior cybersecurity researcher at the Energy Department’s Pacific Northwest National Laboratory; Gail Newcomb, information cybersecurity manager at the National Institutes of Health’s Office of the Director; Charles Livingston, program manager at the Health and Human Services Department’s Continuous Monitoring and Mitigation Program; Kashif Zaidi, director of solution architects at Aqua Security; Chris Hughes, co-founder and chief information security officer at Aquia; and Kiersten Patton, ATARC consultant https://atarc.org/event/sbomstandards
FRIDAY | AUGUST 25
8:30 a.m. 1957 E St. NW — George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs conference in commemoration of the 70th anniversary of the U.S.-South Korea alliance and the 75th anniversary of the founding of the Republic of Korea, with Seth Bailey, director of the State Department Office of Korean and Mongolian Affairs. RSVP: [email protected] or [email protected]
TUESDAY | AUGUST 29
8 a.m. 2101 Wilson Blvd., Arlington, Virginia — National Defense Industrial Association conference: “Emerging Technologies For Defense,” with the theme “Delivering New Capabilities to the Warfighter at Speed and Scale,” with Maynard Holliday, performing the duties of assistant defense secretary for critical technologies; Heidi Shyu, undersecretary of defense for research and engineering; Jason Rathje, director of the Office of the Undersecretary of Defense for Research and Engineering’s Office of Strategic Capital; Brendan Owens, assistant secretary of defense for energy, installations, and environment; Oliver Fritz, director for operational energy at the Office of the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Environment and Energy Resilience; RuthAnne Darling, director for operational energy – innovation at the Office of the Undersecretary of Defense for Research and Engineering; Kim Sablon, principal director for trusted AI and autonomy at the Office of the Undersecretary of Defense for Research and Engineering; Young Bang, principal deputy assistant secretary of the Army for acquisitions, logistics, and technology; Amy Smith-Carroll, director for surface warfare at the Office of the Undersecretary of Defense for Acquisition and Sustainment; Brad Belzak, director of homeland defense integration at the Office of the Undersecretary of Defense for Policy; Kimberly Sablon, principal director for trusted AI and autonomy at the Undersecretary of Defense for Research and Engineering; Lt. Col. John Long, deputy to the Navy chief AI officer at the Office of Naval Research; and Army Undersecretary Gabe Camarillo. RSVP: [email protected]
9 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW — Center for Strategic and International Studies discussion: “Reviewing the Camp David Trilateral Summit,” with Japanese Ambassador to the U.S. Tomita Koji; Republic of Korea Ambassador to the U.S. Cho Hyundong; and Kurt Campbell, National Security Council coordinator for Indo-Pacific affairs https://www.csis.org/events/reviewing-camp-david-trilateral-summit
11 a.m. — National Defense Industrial Association National Training and Simulation Association virtual discussion: “Generative AI” https://www.ntsa.org/events/2023/8/30/ntsa-august-webinar/registration
QUOTE OF THE DAY “We do not assess that the conflict is a stalemate. We continue to support Ukraine in its effort to take territory as part of this counteroffensive, and we are seeing it continue to take territory on a methodical systematic basis.” Jake Sullivan, White House national security adviser, speaking to reporters Tuesday.