Ukraine war is not a stalemate, Sullivan argues
Mike Brest
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Russia’s war in Ukraine, which has gone on for a year and a half now, is not locked in a stalemate, according to President Joe Biden’s national security adviser Jake Sullivan.
The president’s adviser acknowledged on Tuesday that there is “attacking and defending taking place on both sides at multiple points along a very extended front line.” Ukraine, he added, has been defending “quite effectively” from Russian offensive maneuvers in the northeastern part of the country, where Russia is trying to capture more territory, while Kyiv is making incremental advances in the southeast.
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“No, we do not assess the conflict as a stalemate,” he said. “We continue to support Ukraine in its effort to take territory as part of this counteroffensive, and we are seeing it continue to take territory on a methodical, systematic basis. … When I originally laid out the rationale for the provision, for example of our dual purpose improvised cluster munitions, or DPICMs, one of the arguments I made is that it was about giving Ukraine tools to be able to defend the territory it currently holds against further Russian attacks. That was not a conceptual argument. It’s an argument that’s reflected the reality that Russia will attack in places and they are attacking. But of course, Ukraine is also attacking, Ukraine is also making gains.”
Ukrainian forces are attempting to push from the town of Robotyne south toward the strategic city of Melitopol, where they hope to end Russia’s land bridge from the Crimean peninsula, which it annexed in 2014, along the eastern coast of Ukraine up to Russian territory. Severing this connection would be a significant development in their counteroffensive.
They made “tactically significant gains in and east of Robotyne,” the Institute for the Study of War said in its latest daily update of battleground developments. The Ukrainian attacks on and near Robotyne are significant because if they are able to advance, they would likely be able to advance past the densest parts of Russian minefields, the ISW has previously reported.
Sullivan also denied last month that the war had reached a stalemate, noting, “We said before this counteroffensive started that it’d be hard going and it’s been hard going,” which is a sentiment he also reiterated on Tuesday.
The U.S. has provided approximately $43 billion in military aid, though the administration has been slow to meet some of Ukraine’s more advanced requests. Earlier this week, Denmark and the Netherlands announced a plan to provide Ukraine with F-16 fighter aircraft after they received assurances from Secretary of State Antony Blinken that the United States will expedite the approval of transfer requests.
U.S. and Ukrainian officials acknowledged last week that they will not have F-16s on the battlefield this calendar year.
Sullivan appeared confident that Congress’s bipartisan support for aiding Ukraine militarily will continue, despite notable factions of both parties who have come to believe the U.S. should limit or halt military aid altogether. The comment comes after Biden unveiled a new request to Congress seeking an additional $24 billion to boost military assistance in Ukraine.
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“There are strong Republican as well as Democrats voices in both the House and the Senate, in key leadership positions, advocating on behalf of continued financial support to Ukraine. So that they have the tools they need to defend their sovereignty and territorial integrity,” Sullivan explained. “So we believe that the support will be there and will be sustained even if there are some dissident voices on the other side of the aisle.”
The House Freedom Caucus, which based on its numbers has the ability to tank GOP legislation in the House should they choose to vote with the Democratic Party, released a list of demands for the group to support a stopgap funding measure to avoid a government shutdown next month, one being that they “will oppose any blank check for Ukraine in any supplemental bill.”