Zelensky thanks Denmark and Netherlands for F-16s that won’t arrive until next year at the earliest
Jamie McIntyre
UKRAINE PROMISED UP TO 60 F-16s, EVENTUALLY: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky visited Denmark and the Netherlands to thank the two NATO countries for their pledge to transfer dozens of F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine, as soon as the pilots are trained to fly them.
On Sunday, Zelesnky toured a Dutch air base with Prime Minister Mark Rutte and said the Netherlands committed to sending more than three dozen planes. “Mark Rutte and I agreed on the number of F-16s that will be provided to Ukraine after training our pilots and engineers is completed. 42 planes,” Zelensky posted on social media. “And this is just the beginning.”
In Denmark, Zelensky sat in the front seat of an F-16D and thanked Danish lawmakers for promising almost 20 of the fourth-generation fighter jets. “Denmark will provide Ukraine with 19 F-16s. We are working on the speed of preparations,” he posted. “Our pilots and engineers have already began their training in Denmark. … During the talks we also discussed the possibility of expanding training missions.”
While Zelensky’s visit provided morale-boosting photo-ops, the stark reality is that the pilots won’t be ready to fly the planes for months, if not longer. U.S. Air Force Gen. James Hecker, commander of U.S. air forces in Europe and Africa, said last week that standing up combat-ready Ukrainian F-16 squadrons could take “four or five years.”
US APPROVES PLAN TO ALLOW ALLIES TO PROVIDE F-16S TO UKRAINE
AT ODDS OVER STRATEGY: For months before Ukraine launched its counteroffensive, U.S. officials, including Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Mark Milley, touted the training Ukrainian troops were getting in combined arms and maneuver warfare, a sophisticated way of fighting that coordinates all elements of ground attack.
But after suffering heavy losses in the first week of the counteroffensive, Ukraine reverted to more cautious tactics, designed to limit casualties, including long-range strikes at targets behind enemy lines. That has resulted in some frustration at the Pentagon, including a classified assessment that concluded Ukraine will fall short of a key goal, liberating the key southeastern city of Melitopol. Some U.S. officials have suggested that Ukraine stop focusing so much on Crimea and instead concentrate on making a significant breakthrough of Russian lines.
“I have to tell you that no official ever said that to me,” said Oksana Markarova, the Ukrainian ambassador to the U.S., on CNN on Friday. “Everyone, from President Biden to Secretary Blinken, has been very clear, and Secretary [Lloyd] Austin, that Crimea is Ukraine and Crimea is no different than any other part.”
“Yes, it’s a difficult fight. Yes, it’s 820 miles of a very difficult, long combat line, but we knew it, but we were preparing for it, and we’re doing it on a daily basis,” Markarova said. “So, I would actually disagree. I think we are achieving our goals.”
SULLIVAN: ‘WE’RE NOT GOING TO HANDICAP THE OUTCOME’: Asked about the pessimistic assessment reported by the Washington Post last week, national security adviser Jake Sullivan declined to confirm its conclusions.
“Over the course of the past two years, there have been a lot of analyses of how this war would unfold coming from a lot of quarters. And we’ve seen numerous changes in those analyses over time as dynamic battlefield conditions change,” Sullivan told reporters on Friday. “We’re doing everything we can to support Ukraine in its counteroffensive. We’re not going to handicap the outcome. We’re not going to predict what’s going to happen because this war has been inherently unpredictable.”
“I believe and have confidence in the capacity and especially the bravery of the Ukrainian fighters to continue to make progress on the battlefield,” he added.
US DELIVERS BLEAK OUTLOOK ON UKRAINE’S ATTEMPTS TO SEVER RUSSIAN LAND BRIDGE
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HAPPENING TODAY: The U.S. and South Korea have begun their biggest joint military drills in years, Ulchi Freedom Shield, which is a combination of large-scale live-fire field exercises and computer-simulated command post war games.
The annual exercises, which were scaled back during former President Donald Trump’s efforts to woo North Korean leader Kim Jong Un to agree to give up his nuclear weapons, run from today until the end of the month.
Meanwhile, the Korean Central News Agency reported that Kim spent today observing the test-firing of strategic cruise missiles. “The ship rapidly hit target without even an error,” according to the report, which said Kim said North Korea “would put spurs to the modernization of naval weapons and equipment including the building of powerful warships and the development of shipboard and underwater weapon systems.”
A state media photo showed him watching a missile from the patrol ship from what appeared to be the deck of another warship.
U.S. officials have been expecting North Korea to launch another intercontinental ballistic missile in violation of United Nations Security Council resolutions to protest the joint U.S.-South Korea military exercises. Cruise missiles are not covered by the U.N. resolutions.
RAMASWAMY: UKRAINE WINNING ‘NOT A VITAL U.S. INTEREST’: Among the Republican presidential candidates, Vivek Ramaswamy has been the most willing to let Russia keep the territory it has captured so far in Ukraine and the least willing to admit Ukraine to NATO.
Ramaswamy’s campaign told the Washington Examiner that he does not believe “winning” in Ukraine is a “vital U.S. interest” and said he’d “end the war by ceasing further U.S. support for Ukraine and negotiating a peace treaty with Russia that achieves a vital U.S. security objective: ceasing Russia’s growing military alliance with China.”
“I think that the Biden administration is so stubbornly attached to the idea of getting Xi Jinping to drop Vladimir Putin. What I think we need to be doing is get Vladimir Putin to drop Xi Jinping,” Ramaswamy said in a CNN interview last week. “Just like Nixon went to China in 1972 … I will visit Moscow and I will pull Russia out of its military alliance with China.”
As for the war in Ukraine, Ramaswamy is ready to bring it to a quick end, even if that means on Putin’s terms. “I would freeze the current lines of control, and that would leave parts of the Donbas region with Russia. I would also further make a commitment that NATO will not admit Ukraine to NATO,” he told CNN. “Our goal should not be for Putin to lose. Our goal should be for America to win. That’s what we have forgotten in this country, is that driving Russia into the ground is not a U.S. strategic goal. A U.S. strategic goal is to secure peace and prosperity for Americans.”
UP FOR DEBATE: TRUMP, DESANTIS AND 2024 GOP HOPEFULS’ STANCE ON MILITARY AND UKRAINE
RUSSIAN MORALE: In its latest campaign assessment, the Institute for the Study of War predicted that the flagging morale of Russian troops, many of whom have been in the trenches of the front lines for almost a year, will be a key factor in whether Ukraine can break through Russian defenses.
“Ukrainian strikes on Russian rear areas are demonstrably degrading the morale of Russian forces in Ukraine, which could threaten the stability of Russian defenses on multiple critical areas of the front,” the ISW said. “Morale issues can quickly intensify and spread among Russian frontline units if one unit under pressure breaks, which could spread panic and significantly reduce the combat effectiveness of other Russian forces.”
But the assessment said Russia’s morale problem will be irrelevant if Russian forces do not break under this pressure. “There is no way to predict if, when, or where a Russian unit might break under sustained pressure, but Ukrainian forces are setting conditions to increase the likelihood of such a development.”
At a news conference in Denmark yesterday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky flatly ruled out any “exchange” of its territory with Russia in any peace deal.
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Calendar
MONDAY | AUGUST 21
10 a.m. — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace virtual book discussion: Digital Empires: The Global Battle to Regulate Technology, with Michael Nelson, senior fellow at the CEIP Technology and International Affairs Program, and Anu Bradford, nonresident scholar at the CEIP Europe Program https://carnegieendowment.org/2023/08/21/digital-empires
TUESDAY | AUGUST 22
2 p.m. — Government Executive Media Group virtual discussion: “AI in Action,” with Michael Mendenhall, CTO of the Air Force Research Laboratory https://events.govexec.com/ai-in-action/registration
8 p.m. — Korea Society virtual discussion: “The South Korea Nuclear Debate,” with Lami Kim, professor at the Daniel K. Inouye Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies’s College of Security Studies; Clint Work, fellow and director of academic affairs at the Korea Economic Institute of America; Bee Yun Jo, associate research fellow at the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses’s Center for Security and Strategy; Hyun-Binn Cho, assistant professor at the College of New Jersey’s Department of Political Science; Jonathan Corrado, policy director at the Korea Society; and Chelsie Alexandre, program officer at the Korea Society https://www.koreasociety.org/policy-and-corporate-programs
WEDNESDAY | AUGUST 23
10 a.m. — George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs virtual discussion: “Central Asia: A Loophole for Russia’s Sanctions?” with Leila Seiitbek, chairwoman of Freedom for Eurasia; Thomas Mayne, research fellow at the University of Oxford; Nurul Rakhimbek, political activist and researcher; and Sebastien Peyrouse, director of the GWU Central Asia Program and research professor at the GWU Institute for European, Russian, and Eurasian Studies https://www.eventbrite.com/e/central-asia-a-loophole-for-russias-sanctions
10:30 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “The Department of Defense’s Biodefense Posture Review,” with Deborah Rosenblum, assistant secretary of defense for nuclear, chemical, and biological defense programs; Brandi Vann, principal deputy assistant secretary of defense for nuclear, chemical, and biological defense programs; Richard Johnson, deputy assistant secretary of defense for nuclear and countering weapons of mass destruction policy; Asha George, executive director of the Bipartisan Commission on Biodefense; and moderated by retired Rear Adm. Tom Cullison, CSIS senior associate https://www.csis.org/events/department-defenses-newly-released-biodefense-posture-review
THURSDAY | AUGUST 24
10 a.m. — Asia Society Policy Institute virtual discussion: “China’s Generative AI and AI Technology Landscape: Advancements, Players, and Policies,” with Karen Hao, former tech reporter, Wall Street Journal; Zeyi Yang, tech reporter at MIT Technology Review; Jenny Xiao, partner at Leonis Capital; Qiheng Chen, honorary junior fellow for Chinese economy and technology at ASPI’s Center for China Analysis and senior analyst at Compass Lexecon; and Lizzi Lee, honorary junior fellow for Chinese economy at ASPI’s Center for China Analysis https://asiasociety.zoom.us/webinar/register
1:30 p.m. — Government Executive Media Group and the Advanced Technology Academic Research Center virtual discussion: “Strengthening Federal Software Infrastructure: Importance of SBOM Compliance Standards,” with Senior Master Sgt. William Rouse, section chief of digital infrastructure at the Space Force’s Chief of Technology and Innovation Office; Luci Holemans, cybersecurity manager at the Transportation Department’s Air Traffic Organization; Elena Peterson, senior cybersecurity researcher at the Energy Department’s Pacific Northwest National Laboratory; Gail Newcomb, information cybersecurity manager at the National Institutes of Health’s Office of the Director; Charles Livingston, program manager at the Health and Human Services Department’s Continuous Monitoring and Mitigation Program; Kashif Zaidi, director of solution architects at Aqua Security; Chris Hughes, co-founder and chief information security officer at Aquia; and Kiersten Patton, ATARC consultant https://atarc.org/event/sbomstandards
FRIDAY | AUGUST 25
8:30 a.m. 1957 E St. NW — George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs conference in commemoration of the 70th anniversary of the U.S.-South Korea alliance and the 75th anniversary of the founding of the Republic of Korea, with Seth Bailey, director of the State Department Office of Korean and Mongolian Affairs. RSVP: [email protected] or [email protected]
WEDNESDAY | AUGUST 30
10:30 a.m. — 1775 Massachusetts Ave. N.W. — Brookings Institution’s Hutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy and Strobe Talbott Center for Security, Strategy, and Technology in-person and virtual event: “How much money for defense is enough?” with Michael O’Hanlon, director, Talbott Center; Mackenzie Eaglen, senior fellow, American Enterprise Institute; and Travis Sharp, senior fellow and director of defense budget studies, Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments https://connect.brookings.edu/register-to-watch-how-much-money-for-defense
QUOTE OF THE DAY “Putin would have never gone into Ukraine. But that was just on my relationship with him, my personality over his. Would have never gone. I used to speak to him. It was the apple of his eye, but I said, don’t ever do it.” Former President Donald Trump, in an interview with Larry Kudlow, Fox Business anchor, that aired Friday