Sobering US intelligence assessment reportedly undercuts Zelensky’s upbeat hopes of Ukrainian victory this year
Jamie McIntyre
A PUNCH IN THE GUT: The headline on this morning’s Washington Post is bound to infuriate Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and embolden Russian President Vladimir Putin.
“U.S. expects Kyiv to fall short, UNLIKELY TO RETAKE VITAL CRIMEA HUB, Dug-in Russian defenses stymie counteroffensive,” screams the headline in the print edition that landed on driveways and doorsteps of Washington homes this morning. The report cites a classified assessment from the U.S. intelligence community that Ukrainian forces are unlikely to reach the Russian-occupied city of Melitopol, a principle objective of the counteroffensive aimed at severing Russia’s land bridge by year’s end.
“The grim assessment is based on Russia’s brutal proficiency in defending occupied territory through a phalanx of minefields and trenches, and is likely to prompt finger pointing inside Kyiv and Western capitals about why a counteroffensive that saw tens of billions of dollars of Western weapons and military equipment fell short of its goals,” the report says.
Ukrainian forces are slowly advancing south from the town of Robotyne toward Melitopol, which is a key logistics hub with major highways and rail lines, but U.S. officials told the Washington Post that they’re not expected to be able to retake the city.
ISW: RUSSIA STILL VULNERABLE: A separate assessment from the Institute for the Study of War, based on open sources, says Ukraine’s strategy of advancing cautiously has succeeded in degrading Russian forces and could create opportunities for a strategic breakthrough.
“The lack of Russian operational reserves means that Russian forces will have to reinforce certain areas of the front at the expense of others, likely weakening Russian defensive lines in aggregate and offering Ukrainian forces opportunities for exploitation,” the ISW said. “Russian forces increasingly appear likely to have to withdraw to secondary prepared defensive positions without significant support in the case of a Ukrainian breakthrough, and the further degradation of Russian forces creates opportunities for any Ukrainian breakthrough to be potentially operationally significant.”
The ISW also cited comments from a Russian battalion commander who suggested that Russia should attempt to freeze the war in Ukraine along the current frontlines.
“Alexander Khodakovsky stated that Russia will not be able to topple Ukraine militarily in the near term and that Russian forces are unlikely to easily occupy additional Ukrainian cities,” the ISW said. “Khodakovsky concluded that Russia will likely have to come to a ‘truce’ and that Russia may enter a phase ‘of neither peace nor war’ with Ukraine,” adding that “Ukraine would be sufficiently weakened in this state of frozen conflict and that Russia would be able to exert more influence over Ukraine.”
Stian Jenssen, chief of staff to NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, was forced to backtrack this week after suggesting at a conference in Norway that one way for the war to end would be for “Ukraine to give up territory and get NATO membership in return.” Stoltenberg later downplayed the remark, saying it is up to Ukraine to decide when and how to negotiate peace with Russia.
UKRAINE REJECTS NATO OFFICIAL’S SUGGESTION OF GIVING UP LAND FOR MEMBERSHIP
WAIT TILL NEXT YEAR: While the Biden administration has reportedly signed off on sending training materials to Denmark, one of two NATO countries who agreed to train Ukrainian pilots to fly the U.S. F-16s, the planes themselves won’t arrive until sometime next year.
But the U.S. has approved a plan for NATO allies to send the planes as soon as the pilot training is completed, according to reports by Reuters and Politico. Many of the Ukrainian pilots and maintainers must learn English to operate and repair the modern warplanes, which is making the training a longer process.
Ukraine has actively sought the U.S.-made F-16 fighter jets to help it counter Russian air superiority.
“It’s already obvious we won’t be able to defend Ukraine with F-16 fighter jets during this autumn and winter,” said Yuriy Ihnat, a spokesman for the Ukrainian air force. “We had big hopes for this plane, that it will become part of air defense, able to protect us from Russia’s missiles and drones terrorism.”
UKRAINE ACKNOWLEDGES AIR FORCE WON’T BE ABLE TO USE F-16S THIS YEAR
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HAPPENING TODAY: The United States, Japan, and South Korea will sign a new defense cooperation agreement as the main event following today’s historic summit at the Camp David presidential retreat in the Catoctin Mountains of Maryland.
President Joe Biden will welcome South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida to Camp David at 11 a.m., and a joint news conference is set for 3 p.m.
The new agreement was described as a “duty to consult” pledge by a senior administration official who briefed reporters ahead of the summit. The pledge says the three allies agree that a threat to one of the nations is “a threat to all” and commits the three countries to consult in the event of a security crisis in the Pacific.
“It is hard to exaggerate the significance of Friday’s summit at Camp David,” wrote Sue Mi Terry, a former senior CIA analyst, and Max Boot, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, in a Washington Post opinion piece. “This represents another major step toward the establishment of a new trilateral alliance that could help all three nations cope with the growing threats from North Korea and China in a world destabilized by the Russian invasion of Ukraine.”
“Aspirations for the summit are high, but whether the leaders are truly prepared for effective trilateral teamwork, or whether Friday is just another meeting on their busy schedules, is unclear,” wrote former national security adviser John Bolton in the Washington Examiner.
“Biden, Yoon, and Kishida should discuss how to cooperate in fending off Chinese designs on Taiwan and the East China Sea. While South Korea has understandably concentrated for decades on North Korea’s threat, Seoul’s leadership increasingly grasps that the more serious threat, economically as well as militarily, is China,” Bolton wrote. “It is already a commonplace understanding for the Japanese that an attack on Taiwan is an attack on them, and Koreans increasingly see threats to Taiwan in the same light. South Korea’s interests are essentially those of Japan, and indeed of America.”
BIDEN’S TRILATERAL SUMMIT WITH JAPAN AND SOUTH KOREA IS CRITICAL TO AMERICAN SECURITY
RAMASWAMY: ‘A MODERN MONROE DOCTRINE’: Republican presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy got a lot of flak when he suggested in a radio interview earlier this week that the U.S. should defend Taiwan from China, but only until the U.S. doesn’t need the island nation to provide computer microchips, some time around 2028.
But last night at the Richard Nixon Presidential Library in Yorba Linda, California, Ramaswamy described a more expansive foreign policy vision, outlining his plans to end the war in Ukraine while adopting a “modern Monroe Doctrine” that follows in Nixon’s footsteps.
Ramaswamy said he rejects a “globalist foreign policy attitude,” instead aligning himself with the more conservative-friendly view of “America comes first.” But where he differed from his primary rivals was in how he described the current state of the U.S., likening it to the adolescence of a human unsure of their place in the world rather than a person on the decline.
In his analogy, Ramaswamy pondered, what if “we are stronger for it when we reach our adulthood on the other side. … I believe we can still be a nation on our ascent … That is our obligation to the world to be strong at home.”
VIVEK RAMASWAMY TOUTS ‘AMERICA COMES FIRST’ FOREIGN POLICY PLANS AT NIXON LIBRARY
The Rundown
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Washington Examiner: Vivek Ramaswamy touts ‘America comes first’ foreign policy plans at Nixon Library
Washington Examiner: Opinion: An Iran disaster of Biden’s own making
AP: The Dutch defense minister says the US has approved the delivery of F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine
Politico: US Gives Final Approval Allowing F-16 Training for Ukraine to Begin
Reuters: Taiwan’s Vice-President William Lai Returns From Sensitive Visit To U.S.
Washington Times: General: China Military Threats Drive Missile Defense Buildup On Guam
Wall Street Journal: Water Cannons And Lasers: South China Sea Standoff Around World War II-Era Ship Heats Up
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Military.com: Six Months After New Abortion Leave Policy, Pentagon Doesn’t Know How Many Troops Have Used It
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Air Force Times: Airmen Need More Trust, Autonomy to Win Next Wars, Air Force Boss Says
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Defense One: More Tankers, E-7s, And Better Comms: Lessons from Air Force’s Red Flag
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Calendar
FRIDAY | AUGUST 18
11 a.m. Camp David, Maryland — Trilateral summit between President Joe Biden; Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida; and South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol
3 p.m. Camp David, Maryland — President Joe Biden holds a joint news conference with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol after a trilateral leaders summit
WEDNESDAY | AUGUST 30
10:30 a.m. — 1775 Massachusetts Ave. N.W. — Brookings Institution’s Hutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy and Strobe Talbott Center for Security, Strategy, and Technology in-person and virtual event: “How much money for defense is enough?” with Michael O’Hanlon, director, Talbott Center; Mackenzie Eaglen, senior fellow, American Enterprise Institute; and Travis Sharp, senior fellow and director of defense budget studies, Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments https://connect.brookings.edu/register-to-watch-how-much-money-for-defense
QUOTE OF THE DAY “It’s already obvious we won’t be able to defend Ukraine with F-16 fighter jets during this autumn and winter. We had big hopes for this plane.” Yuriy Ihnat, a spokesman for the Ukrainian air force, expressing disappointment that U.S. F-16s won’t arrive in Ukraine until sometime next year.