Russian warship seen listing as Ukrainian sea drones continue to target Black Sea fleet
Jamie McIntyre
LISTING TO PORT: Video posted on social media appears to show the Russian warship Olenegorsky Gornyk listing to its port side after Russia accused Ukraine of attacking its Black Sea navy base in Novorossiysk with homegrown sea drones.
The maritime drones are the latest weapon in Ukraine’s arsenal and are believed to have been employed in last month’s successful attack on the Kerch Bridge linking Russia with occupied Crimea. In addition to hosting a Russian naval base, Novorossiysk is a major commercial port and a key facility for Russian exports.
The Russian Defense Ministry claimed the sea drones were destroyed before they hit their targets, and one video on social media showed an explosion at sea; it was unclear if it occurred before or after reaching the vessel. Another video from the drone’s onboard camera appeared to show the drone reaching the hull of the Olenegorsky Gornyk before the signal cut out.
RUSSIA CLAIMS RIGHT TO ATTACK UKRAINE’S GRAIN AMID DEBATE ABOUT WAR AND FAMINE
ISW: ‘UKRAINE STILL VERY MUCH IN THE GAME’: Top analysts at the Institute for the Study of War say that despite the slow pace of the Ukrainian offensive, the current situation “still favors Kyiv.”
Writing in Time Magazine, Fred Kagan, Karolina Hird, and Kateryna Stepanenko argue, “Ukraine is still very much in the game. The many structural advantages it has offer good reason to expect that Ukrainian forces will liberate vital lands and the people living on them, if only the West holds firm in its support.”
Ukraine’s most probable path to success will be “slower and more gradual … than Ukraine’s Western backers desire and expect,” they argue. “The slow pace of the pressure campaign Ukraine had been using before July 26 is designed to minimize Ukrainian losses. It is not primarily oriented towards attriting Russians either, but rather towards steadily forcing the Russians out of their prepared defensive positions in ways that the Ukrainians can take advantage of to make operationally significant advances.”
“Ukrainian progress will very likely alternate periods of notable tactical advances with periods, possibly long periods, of pause and some setbacks,” they conclude. “Much as we might hope that the road to the Sea of Azov will simply open for Ukrainian forces the odds are high that fighting will remain hard, casualties high, and frustration will be a constant companion.”
AIRPOWER, ‘THE MISSING ELEMENT’: While the Pentagon continues to insist it has provided Ukraine with everything it needs to prevail, former U.S. commanders keep weighing in with the same assessment: Ukraine needs airpower, specifically F-16s.
“Ukraine is trying to fight a combined arms tactic, which is a Western tactic, but without adequate airpower,” said retired Marine Gen. Jim Jones, former supreme NATO commander, on CNN. “That is the missing element right now, and that contributes to a slower rate of advance by Ukraine.”
With a population one third of Russia’s, Ukraine can’t afford to fall into a long war of attrition, especially with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s demonstrated willingness to sacrifice the lives of thousands of his conscript troops for minimal gains.
“I know that the performance has been slower than most people hoped for. I think one of the reasons is that Ukraine has gone from being on defense to offense,” Jones said. “Generally, when you are on the offense, you need a three-to-one personnel advantage. You take more casualties.”
”The countries and nations who are rightfully supporting the Ukrainian forces have given the Russians the gift of time,” said retired Lt. Gen. Dave Deptula, chief architect of the air campaign in the 1991 Iraq war, in an interview with Voice of America.
“There has to be an asymmetric advantage that’s provided to the Ukrainians that will give them the leverage to counter these size advantages that the Russians have, and what will provide that asymmetric advantage is airpower, modern airpower that is resident in an aircraft like F-16,” he said. “And quite frankly, we have to stop making excuses for not providing the training and the F-16s.”
BALTIC ALLIES SEE RISK OF ‘POSSIBLE AGGRESSION’ BY WAGNER GROUP AGAINST NATO
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HAPPENING TODAY: There will be another acting member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff after this morning’s “Relinquishment of Responsibility ceremony,” in which Army chief of staff Gen. James McConville will step down after 42 years of service without a Senate-confirmed replacement to take his place.
The current vice chief, Gen. Randy George, will fill in, but his confirmation, along with 300 others, has been blocked by Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-AL) in his ongoing effort to force the Pentagon to change its travel reimbursement policy for military members and dependents who need to travel to a different state to obtain legal abortions.
Gen. Eric Smith, the assistant Marine Corps commandant, became the head of the service in an acting capacity last month because the Senate didn’t vote on his nomination to assume the role. The Marines had not been led by an acting commandant in more than 100 years.
Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Mike Gilday’s term is set to expire later this month, and Adm. Lisa Franchetti, who is currently the vice CNO, will also take over in an acting capacity.
Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin is scheduled to make remarks at this morning’s ceremony at Joint Base Myer Henderson Hall, at which Sgt. Maj. of the Army Michael Grinston is also transferring responsibility to Sgt. Maj. Michael Weimer. The ceremony will be livestreamed on the Pentagon’s website at 9 a.m.
MARINES GULF MISSION: The U.S. is drawing up plans to put Marines on commercial ships in the Arabian Gulf in a new effort to deter Iran from harassing and seizing private vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, according to reports by both the Associated Press and the Washington Post.
“The contemplated move also would represent an extraordinary commitment in the Mideast by U.S. forces as the Pentagon tries to focus on Russia and China,” reported the Associated Press, which said the plan was under consideration. The Washington Post went further, reporting that while the plan has not yet received final approval, “it has buy-in from senior Biden administration officials and could commence as soon as this month.”
Asked about the reports, Pentagon spokesman Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder told reporters he had nothing to announce but noted that the U.S. had moved the USS Bataan Amphibious Readiness Group with its Marine Expeditionary Unit into the region.
“By increasing the presence, by working with our partners in the region, and stepping up the tempo and pace of our patrols writ large around the region, the intent is to be closer to be able to respond quicker to any potential provocations and to deter any type of Iranian aggression,” Ryder said.
ACCUSED SAILOR SPIES ARRESTED: In separate cases, two U.S. sailors have been arrested on espionage charges, accused of transmitting sensitive military information to China. The two suspected spies were identified as Jinchao Wei, aka Patrick Wei, and Petty Officer Wenheng Zhao, aka Thomas Zhao.
“These individuals stand accused of violating the commitments they made to protect the United States and betraying the public trust, to the benefit of the PRC government,” said Assistant Attorney General Matthew Olsen in a Justice Department news release.
Wei is charged with passing information about the USS Essex and other Navy ships to a Chinese intelligence officer using encrypted methods of communication.
Zhao is accused of taking bribes from a Chinese intelligence officer in exchange for disclosing non-public sensitive U.S. military information, including operational plans for a large-scale U.S. military exercise in the Indo-Pacific region, “which detailed the specific location and timing of Naval force movements, amphibious landings, maritime operations and logistics support.”
TWO NAVY SERVICE MEMBERS ARRESTED FOR SHARING SENSITIVE INFORMATION WITH CHINA: DOJ
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AP: White House Says Top Russian Official Pitched North Korea On Increasing Sale Of Munitions To Moscow
Washington Post: Ukraine’s Offensive Inches Forward
VOA: F-16s Could Provide to Ukraine an Asymmetric Advantage
Newsweek: Russian Officers Poisoned at Military Celebration: Report
Stars and Stripes: Australian Drills Draw Indo-Pacific Militaries Closer As Chinese Threat Grows
Defense News: U.S. Marine Acting Commandant Details Future Direction Of Service
Breaking Defense: Sprawling Pacific Exercise Revealed Air Force Needs Some Doctrine ‘Refresh’: General
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Breaking Defense: Enhancing ‘Lethality’: First Space Force ‘Operations’ Doctrine Cements Role Within Joint Force
Space News: Rogers to Launch Investigation of US Space Command’s Basing Decision
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Fight for a Space National Guard Moves to Next Round
Defense One: Air Force Wants to Rely Less on Northrop for B-21 Sustainment
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Northrop Grumman Opens New Hypersonic Propulsion Facility in Maryland
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Military.com: DOD to Launch Dependent Care Flexible Savings Accounts in November
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19fortyfive.com: Armored Drones: Can Quadcopters Shrug off Anti-Aircraft Fire in a War?
Calendar
FRIDAY | AUGUST 4
9:30 a.m Summerall Field, Joint Base Myer-Henderson Hall, Virginia — Relinquishment of Responsibility ceremony for outgoing Army chief of staff Gen. James McConville and Sgt. Maj. of the Army Michael Grinston https://home.army.mil/jbmhh/index.php
10 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies Smart Women, Smart Power and Aerospace Security Project virtual conversation: “Looking South: Security Challenges in Latin America,” with Army Gen. Laura Richardson, commander, U.S. Southern Command; Kathleen McInnis, director, CSIS Smart Women, Smart Power Initiative; and Kari Bingen, director, CSIS Aerospace Security Project https://www.csis.org/events/looking-south-conversation
TUESDAY | AUGUST 8
5 p.m. Sierra Vista, Arizona — House Judiciary Committee Crime and Federal Government Surveillance Subcommittee; and House Oversight and Accountability Committee National Security, the Border, and Foreign Affairs Subcommittee joint field hearing: “Biden’s Border Crisis and its Effect on American Communities,” with testimony from Andrew Arthur, resident fellow in law and policy at the Center for Immigration Studies; Cochise County, Arizona, Sheriff Mark Dannels; and John W. Ladd, rancher http://judiciary.house.gov
THURSDAY | AUGUST 10
10 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW — Center for Strategic and International Studies in-person and virtual conversation: “A Front Row View of the NSA: Reflections from General Paul M. Nakasone,” with Glenn Gerstell, CSIS senior adviser and former NSA general counsel; April Doss, NSA general counsel; and Tom Bossert, president, Trinity Cyber, Inc., and former White House homeland security adviser https://www.csis.org/events/front-row-view-nsa-reflections-general-paul-m-nakasone
TUESDAY | AUGUST 15
8 a.m. 2401 M St., NW — George Washington University Project for Media and National Security Defense Writers Group conversation with Bob Hale and Ellen Lord, chairman and vice chair Congressional Commission on Planning, Programming, Budgeting, and Execution Reform. RSVP: Thom Shanker at [email protected]
QUOTE OF THE DAY “The situation in Ukraine still favors Kyiv despite the limited progress made in the counteroffensive so far … It’s far too soon to evaluate the outcome of that effort … Ukraine is still very much in the game.” Institute for the Study of War analysts Fred Kagan, Karolina Hird, and Kateryna Stepanenko, writing in Time Magazine