Viewing Ukraine’s counteroffensive prospects with a jaundiced eye
Jamie McIntyre
BAD OMENS FOR UKRAINE: A sobering analysis from the Hudson Institute suggests Russian President Vladimir Putin is hunkering down for a protracted battle of attrition in Ukraine and is making moves that will reinforce trench and minefield defenses with fresh, untrained conscripts.
“The Russian State Duma voted to raise the maximum age for conscription from 27 to 30, providing more available manpower for Russia’s war effort. The move will enable the Kremlin to replenish its forces participating in the invasion of Ukraine without initiating another mobilization,” Can Kasapoglu, a senior fellow at Hudson, wrote in a military situational report released yesterday.
The new law, and new surveillance and tracking measures, are designed to prevent a repeat of last year’s mass exodus of military-age men who fled the country to avoid the draft. It’s now illegal to leave Russia after getting a draft notice, and a new database and facial recognition cameras will be employed to find draftees.
“These conscription and surveillance measures bode ill for Ukraine and the West. A new wave of draftees will allow the Kremlin to maintain its advantageous force-to-force and force-to-terrain ratios, the two key prerequisites for a favorable balance of power on the battlefield,” Kasapoglu wrote. “Taken together, the new pieces of legislation manifest the Russian elite’s goal of wearing down Ukraine’s soldiers — and the West’s will to support them.”
RUSSIA STRIKES UKRAINIAN GRAIN INFRASTRUCTURE ON DANUBE: ‘TERRORISTS’
UKRAINIAN RESERVES TAPPED OUT: Pentagon officials and former U.S. commanders have been urging patience as Ukraine’s counteroffensive has struggled to make significant gains breaching Russia’s miles-deep zones of landmines and tank traps, arguing it’s prudent for Ukraine to avoid attempting a large-scale breakthrough until Russian supply lines have been cut, and shortages of ammo and fuel are evident on the battlefield.
But unlike Russia, which sends its poorly-trained troops to the front lines and leaves them there as cannon fodder, Ukraine rotates its best forces in and out of battle to preserve unit cohesion and morale.
“Rotation of exhausted combat formations is a common practice and makes sense in a counteroffensive effort that has produced limited territorial gains at the expense of mounting casualties,” wrote Kasapoglu. “Recently, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have replaced the 9th Corps with the 10th Corps on the battlefield. While the 10th Corps has brought some momentum to the campaign, the Ukrainian military is now without major reserve formations in the rear echelons.”
At a Pentagon briefing this week, spokesman Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder refused to say if Ukraine has now committed the bulk of its Western-trained-and-equipped forces to the counteroffensive. “I don’t want to get into highlighting where they are, or are not, applying their capabilities and what the status of the reserve is,” Ryder said. “Other than to say they have significant combat capability, and we’re confident that they will continue to be able to have the means by which to prosecute this campaign.”
IN THE WEEDS: The nemesis of gardeners and farmers everywhere apparently is making the task of breaching Russian defenses even harder.
“The predominantly arable land in the combat zone has now been left fallow for 18 months, with the return of weeds and shrubs accelerating under the warm, damp summer conditions,” the British Defense Ministry noted in its daily social media posting.
“Undergrowth regrowing across the battlefields of southern Ukraine is likely one factor contributing to the generally slow progress of combat in the area. The extra cover helps camouflage Russian defensive positions and makes defensive mine fields harder to clear,” according to the U.K. intelligence assessment. “Although undergrowth can also provide cover for small stealthy infantry assaults, the net effect has been to make it harder for either side to make advances.”
PERPLEXED UKRAINIANS MOCK US PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES DEBATING THEIR FUTURE: ‘JUST STUPID’
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HAPPENING TODAY: Secretary of State Antony Blinken delivers remarks before the United Nations Security Council this morning, as the United States assumes the presidency of the council for the month of August.
The scheduled 10 a.m. “high-level open debate” will focus on famine and conflict-induced global food insecurity. “Under the Biden-Harris administration, we have made food insecurity a priority, both during our presidencies of the council in ’21 and in ’22. This year will be no different,” said NSC spokesman John Kirby earlier this week. “Our second priority during our presidency will be the defense of human rights and fundamental freedoms around the world. And, of course, no surprise, we’re also going to focus the council’s attention on Russia’s war of aggression inside Ukraine.
Blinken’s remarks will be livestreamed on the State Department website.
ALSO TODAY: Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin meets at the Pentagon with Mongolian Prime Minister Luvsannamsrain Oyun-Erdene at 12 p.m.
WHY NATO IS STRENGTHENING ITS FORCES ALONG THE POLISH AND ROMANIAN BORDERS
TRUMP’S ARRAIGNMENT: The big event in Washington today is former President Donald Trump’s scheduled appearance in federal court to be arraigned on charges he acted illegally to overturn the legitimate results of the 2020 presidential election.
The four-count indictment handed up Tuesday includes charges Trump conspired to defraud the United States and to obstruct an official proceeding.
“The defendant had a right, like every American, to speak publicly about the election and even to claim, falsely, that there had been outcome-determinative fraud during the election and that he had won. He was also entitled to formally challenge the results of the election through lawful and appropriate means, such as by seeking recounts or audits of the popular vote in states or filing lawsuits challenging ballots and procedures,” the 45-page indictment begins. What Trump didn’t have the right to do, the indictment argues, was to pursue “unlawful means of discounting legitimate votes and subverting the election results.”
Trump will appear today before a federal magistrate to enter a plea of not guilty and is expected to be immediately released, but the trial judge will be Tanya Chutkan, an Obama appointee, who is known for handing down stiff sentences to convicted Jan. 6 rioters, and who ruled against Trump in November 2021, refusing his claim of executive privilege to block the release of documents to the House’s Jan. 6 committee.
Trump’s lawyer John Lauro has hinted at his defense, asserting in a series of television interviews that Trump was merely exercising his right to free speech and that he relied on the advice of lawyers.
In Washington, security has been ramped up around the U.S. District Courthouse, which is just a few blocks from the U.S. Capitol.
TRUMP’S ‘CRACKPOT’ LAWYERS: Former Vice President Mike Pence, who is increasingly distancing himself from Trump as he pursues his own presidential ambitions, is disputing the contention that Trump was pressuring him to only “pause” the certification of electoral votes so that states could review the election returns for accuracy.
“Let’s be clear on this point. It wasn’t just that he asked for a pause. The president specifically asked me — and his gaggle of crackpot lawyers asked me — to literally reject votes, which would have resulted in the issue being turned over to the House of Representatives. And literally chaos would have ensued,” Pence said in an interview on Fox.
The statement came two days after Pence, reacting to Trump’s third indictment, said it “serves as an important reminder: anyone who puts himself over the Constitution should never be president of the United States.”
Pence’s latest comment came in response to Fox host Martha MacCallum asking about his reaction to Trump attorney John Eastman saying all he had to do was “take a pause.”
“I say that’s completely false. And it’s contrary to American history, to our Constitution, and to the laws of this country. And I never considered it,” Pence responded. “Look, for the first time, I heard speculation that, as vice president, I’d have the authority to overturn the election by returning or rejecting votes, I frankly dismissed it out of hand.”
DONALD TRUMP INDICTED: DC BRACES ITSELF FOR DISRUPTIVE COURT APPEARANCE
NORTH KOREA REACHES OUT: After two weeks of silence, North Korea has formally acknowledged it’s holding U.S. Army Pvt. Travis King, the soldier who bolted across the border while taking a tour of the demilitarized zone that separates the two Koreas.
“It was a call to the U.N. Command at the Demilitarized Zone that came just in the last 48 hours,” spokesman Matthew Miller said at yesterday’s State Department briefing. “It was not a substantive call. It was an acknowledgment call … and so because it wasn’t substantive, we certainly don’t see it as progress in any way.”
In an interview on CNN last night, King’s uncle Myron Gates said the family is completely in the dark about Travis’s status. “Sitting here today, I don’t know where he is. The only thing I know is there’s a picture of him on the news from the backside, and they’re saying that Travis King ran across the border. That’s the only thing I know. I don’t know nothing else.”
“It’s been very, very devastating to my family and I. And for it to be two weeks, we feel like we should know more right now as to what’s going on, as is he safe? We don’t know nothing,” Gates told host Laura Coates.
“I recently, allegedly, I guess I heard from him around July 15th,” said Jaqueda Gates, King’s sister. “But me personally, I don’t believe that’s really him talking to me on Messenger.”
“I guess we all get something from his Messenger,” she said. “And that’s what don’t add up because he’s not, he never been social media. And the first thing first, he’s gonna do, like he’s always been doing, is reach out to our mom and let him hear her voice. He, you know, he’s not the type to just disappear.”
GETTING OUT OF NIGER: France, Italy, and Spain are all evacuating their citizens and other European nationals from Niger in the wake of the coup that toppled the country’s democratically elected president last week.
But so far, the U.S. is only ordering the “temporary departure of non-emergency U.S. government personnel and eligible family members” from the U.S. Embassy in Niamey.
“The U.S. is committed to our relationship with the people of Niger. The embassy remains open, and our leaders are diplomatically engaged at the highest levels,” said Secretary of State Antony Blinken on social media.
Blinken spoke by phone yesterday to Nigerien President Mohamed Bazoum and told him the United States “remains committed to the restoration of the democratically-elected government, consistent with the position of the Economic Community of West African States,” according to a State Department statement.
“We reiterate that the safety and security of President Bazoum and his family are paramount,” the statement said.
CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER
The Rundown
Washington Examiner: Russia’s client dictators push for ‘alliance of military juntas’ in Africa
Washington Examiner: China hints Wang Yi may not visit US in protest over Taiwan aid
Washington Examiner: Why NATO is strengthening its forces along the Polish and Romanian borders
Washington Examiner: Biden administration cancels offer for 6M barrels to refill Strategic Petroleum Reserve
Washington Examiner: Russia strikes Ukrainian grain infrastructure on Danube: ‘Terrorists’
Washington Examiner: Perplexed Ukrainians mock US presidential candidates debating their future: ‘Just stupid’
Washington Examiner: Donald Trump indicted: Former president calls for ‘Federal TAKEOVER’ of DC the night before his arraignment
Washington Post: Xi’s Shake-Up Of Nuclear Leadership Hints At Graft Probes
Wall Street Journal: Prolonged War Raises New Risks For Beijing; Prompts Slight Shift
New York Times: Ukrainian Troops Trained By The West Stumble
New York Times: Putin Speaks With Erdogan For 1st Time Since Russia Canceled Grain Deal
AP: NATO Nations Beef Up Security Due To Wagner Fighters In Belarus
AP: The US wants Kenya to lead a force in Haiti with 1,000 police. Watchdogs say they’ll export abuse
Breaking Defense: Israel Says US Has Given Green Light to Send David’s Sling to Finland
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Defense One: How Lockheed Is Positioning the F-22 to Fly Into the 2040s
19fortyfive.com: How France ‘Killed’ the F-22 Raptor Stealth Fighter in a Combat Simulation
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Niger Coup Could Jeopardize US Counterterrorism Operations in Africa
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Calendar
THURSDAY | AUGUST 3
8:30 a.m. — Air and Space Forces Association virtual discussion: “How the Expeditionary Center Is Shaping ACE and the Future Fight,” with Air Force Maj. Gen. John Klein, commander of U.S. Air Force Expeditionary Center https://www.afa.org/events/air-space-warfighters-action-maj-gen-john-klein
11 a.m. —Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association virtual discussion: “Acquiring and Developing the Army’s Cyber and Electromagnetic Warfare Professionals,” with Capt. Derrick Kozlowski, chief data officer at the U.S. Army Signal School; Sgt. Brian Picerno, senior career manager at the U.S. Army Cyber School; Diego Laje, senior reporter at SIGNAL Media; and Kimberly Underwood, director of digital news media at SIGNAL Magazine https://www.workcast.com/register
5 p.m. House (Select) Strategic Competition Between the U.S. States and the Chinese Communist Party Committee field hearing on “Iowa Roundtable – CCP Agricultural Technology Theft” https://selectcommitteeontheccp.house.gov/committee-activity/live
5:30 p.m. 7920 Jones Branch Dr., McLean, Virginia — Intelligence and National Security Alliance discussion: “AI and emerging tech, intelligence community data strategy, the future of Open Source and collaboration with industry partners,” with Principal Deputy Director of National Intelligence Stacey Dixon https://www.insaonline.org/detail-pages/event
FRIDAY | AUGUST 4
9:30 a.m Summerall Field, Joint Base Myer-Henderson Hall, Virginia — Relinquishment of Responsibility ceremony for outgoing Army chief of staff Gen. James McConville and Sgt. Maj. of the Army Michael Grinston https://home.army.mil/jbmhh/index.php
10 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies Smart Women, Smart Power and Aerospace Security Project virtual conversation: “Looking South: Security Challenges in Latin America,” with Army Gen. Laura Richardson, commander, U.S. Southern Command; Kathleen McInnis, director, CSIS Smart Women, Smart Power Initiative; and Kari Bingen, director, CSIS Aerospace Security Project https://www.csis.org/events/looking-south-conversation
QUOTE OF THE DAY “President Trump and his gaggle of crackpot lawyers asked me to reject electoral votes and chaos would have ensued. To keep faith with the oath that I made to the American people and to Almighty God, I did my duty that day.” Former Vice President Mike Pence disputing the argument that former President Donald Trump wanted Pence to “pause” the electoral vote count in 2020 so states could review the ballot count for accuracy.