Ukraine appears to mount largest effort yet to break through Russian lines in south
Jamie McIntyre
BREAKTHROUGH? There are conflicting accounts about what’s happening in the southern Zaporizhzhia region of Ukraine, where reports indicate that large numbers of fresh, battle-ready troops are attempting to break through Russian defenses.
“Ukraine has launched the main thrust of its counteroffensive, throwing in thousands of troops held in reserve, many of them Western-trained and equipped,” the New York Times said in a breathless report yesterday, quoting two unnamed Pentagon officials. “This is the big test,” said one senior official.”
At the same time, the newspaper quoted other U.S. officials as saying the Ukrainian attacks “might be preparatory operations for the main thrust or perhaps just reinforcements to replenish war-weary units.”
“Ukrainian forces launched a significant mechanized counteroffensive operation in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast, and appear to have broken through certain pre-prepared Russian defensive positions south of Orikhiv,” the Institute for the Study of War said in its latest battlefield assessment. “Geolocated footage indicates that Ukrainian forces likely advanced to within 2.5 km (1.5 miles) directly east of Robotyne during the attack before Russian forces employed standard doctrinal elastic defense tactics and pushed Ukrainian troops back somewhat, although not all the way back to their starting positions.”
The Russian Defense Ministry called the Ukrainian assault “massive,” while asserting that two separate advances had been repelled.
The Washington Post reported the goal of the operation is to “reach the Sea of Azov, which would sever Moscow’s land bridge to occupied Crimea.”
“Ukrainians appear to have rotated fresh forces into this area for the operation whereas Russian forces remain pinned to the line apparently without rotation, relief, or significant reinforcement in this sector,” the ISW reported, while adding a caution.
“Western officials are unhelpfully raising expectations for rapid and dramatic Ukrainian advances that Ukrainian forces are unlikely to be able to meet, as well as offering forecasts of the likely Ukrainian avenues of advance that should probably not have been shared publicly.”
IT’S NOT JUST MINEFIELDS: “As Ukrainian forces continue major offensive operations in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, one of the single most influential Russian weapon systems in the sector is the Ka-52 HOKUM attack helicopter,” the British Defense Ministry said on the social media platform formerly known as Twitter.
While Russia has lost at least 40 Ka-52s since the start of the war, it has recently fielded a new version of attack helicopters which have imposed a heavy cost on Ukraine, according to the U.K. intelligence report.
“In recent months, Russia has highly likely augmented the force in the south with at least a small number of brand new, Ka-52M variants: a heavily modified aircraft, informed by lessons from Russia’s experience in Syria,” the assessment said. “Another key improvement to the Ka-52 fleet is the integration of a new anti-tank missile, the LMUR, which has a range of approximately 15 km. Ka-52 crews have been quick to exploit opportunities to launch these weapons beyond the range of Ukrainian air defenses.”
ZELENSKY: CRIMEA IN THE CROSSHAIRS: In his nightly video address, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky renewed his vow to liberate Russian-occupied Crimea, which was illegally annexed by Moscow in 2014.
“We are preparing a list of de-occupation steps for Crimea. Comprehensive steps: security, economic, and social. We can quickly reintegrate Crimea into the state fabric of Ukraine,” Zelensky said, urging Russian civilians to leave before Ukrainian forces arrive. “In fact, the occupiers should already consider that while the Crimean bridge is still somewhat operational, they should return home to Russia.”
“Crimea, like the rest of Ukraine, will be free – free from all Russian evil, starting with Russian missiles and ending with every Russian occupier. Russia will lose this war, and no missile will save it,” he said.
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HAPPENING TODAY: President Joe Biden meets with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni at the White House this afternoon “to reaffirm the strong relationship between the United States and Italy.”
Meloni rose to power last year as the head of Italy’s most far-right government since the end of World War II, but her strong support of Ukraine and Italy’s pull-back from China’s infrastructure-building Belt and Road Initiative have tempered the Biden administration’s concern about her policies.
“It’s becoming increasingly obvious that more and more countries around the world are seeing the risks and, quite frankly, the lack of reward for economic partnerships with China in that regard,” said NSC spokesman John Kirby in a White House briefing.
“So there’s a good, productive relationship here,” Kirby said. “Italy has been a great partner on, providing both military and economic and humanitarian assistance to Ukraine.”
F-16 TRAINING SITES NAMED: Training of Ukrainian pilots to fly U.S. F-16 fighter jets has yet to start, but Kirby said yesterday that the location for the training has been nailed down.
“We are pursuing F-16 training for Ukrainian pilots in Romania and Denmark. The dates, the locations, the length of the syllabus, all of that is still being worked out,” Kirby told reporters. “I can’t give you a day on the calendar …We’re still working that out. But we know it’s going to be in Denmark and Romania.”
“There could be other sites as well. That’s where we’re looking at right now,” Kirby added. “The Brits are also beginning English language training for Ukrainian pilots so that they can actually operate the controls on an F-16.”
“We’re all taking this with the appropriate sense of urgency, and we want to get them trained as much as we can or as fast as we can”
PENTAGON DENIES THE MOST SPECTACULAR UFO CLAIMS: On a busy day on Capitol Hill, the biggest attraction was the House Oversight subcommittee’s hourslong discussion on what used to be called UFOs, and are now officially labeled “unidentified anomalous phenomena,” or UAPs.
The hearing featured firsthand accounts of UAP encounters from Navy pilots and blockbuster whistleblower testimony from a former Air Force intelligence officer who claimed the U.S. government has a secret long-standing program that retrieves and reverse engineers alien craft.
“I was informed in the course of my official duties of a multi-decade UAP crash retrieval and reverse engineering program to which I was denied access,” retired Maj. David Grusch told the committee. He also claimed that the government has recovered “non-human biologics” from crashed UAPs.
In a statement issued by the Pentagon’s All-domain Anomaly Resolution Office, a spokesperson said the task force does not have any “verifiable information to substantiate claims that any programs regarding the possession or reverse-engineering of extraterrestrial materials have existed in the past or exist currently.”
At the White House, Kirby stressed that UAPs largely remain an unsolved mystery. “We don’t have the answers about what these phenomena are. Otherwise, I guess we’d have a catchier name for it. ‘Unidentified aerial phenomena’ doesn’t exactly roll off the tongue, but it’s an honest assessment of what we think about this problem set.”
“We obviously take the issue of unidentified aerial phenomena seriously. There is a whole office at the Pentagon that is stood up to analyze the data, collect reports, collate those reports, and forward them up appropriately,” Kirby said. “We need to be as transparent as we can be. But the truth is, we don’t have hard and fast answers on these things. We are trying to get smarter on it.”
THE THREE KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM UFO WHISTLEBLOWER’S TESTIMONY TO CONGRESS
ALLVIN NOMINATED TO BE AF CHIEF: President Joe Biden has selected Air Force Vice chief of staff Gen. David Allvin to succeed Gen. Charles Q. Brown as the next chief of staff.
Brown has been nominated to be the next Joint Chiefs chairman. Allvin now joins a growing list of more than 273 Pentagon nominations currently being held up by Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-AL), who has paused all DOD promotions and nominations since February due to his opposition to the Pentagon’s abortion travel policies.
Armed Services Committee Chairman Sen. Jack Reed (D-RI) took to the Senate floor last night to decry the 7-month delay in confirmations.
“Members of our Armed Services who have served their country for decades are seeing their lives and careers derailed because of Republican Senator Tommy Tuberville’s blanket hold,” said Reed. “At this point, one has to wonder if he actually wants to achieve his demands, or he just wants to remain in the spotlight.”
BIDEN SELECTS NEXT AIR FORCE CHIEF AMID TUBERVILLE BLOCKADE
70 YEARS AGO TODAY: Today marks the anniversary of the armistice that ended the fighting on the Korean peninsula, but not the war, which claimed 37,000 American lives between 1950 and 1953. Another 92,000 were wounded and 8,000 were missing. South Korea suffered 1.3 million casualties, including 415,000 dead.
“Today, we also pause to remember the thousands of United States troops who went missing in action during the Korean War,” said President Joe Biden in a proclamation issued today. “That includes Army Corporal Luther H. Story, who was awarded the Medal of Honor for his extraordinary heroism during a battle on the Pusan Perimeter in 1950. Our Nation was able to bring Corporal Story home this year when his remains were finally identified and returned to his family.”
The Korean War was largely fought during the administration of President Harry S. Truman, but by the time the armistice was signed on July 27, 1953, Dwight D. Eisenhower was president.
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The Rundown
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Calendar
THURSDAY | JULY 27
10 a.m. HVC-210 — House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Oversight and Accountability hearing: “A Failure to Plan: Examining the Biden Administration’s Preparation for the Afghanistan Withdrawal,” with testimony from retired Col. Seth Krummrich, vice president, Global Guardian, former chief of staff, Special Operations Command Central; and Command Sgt. Maj. Jacob Smith https://foreignaffairs.house.gov/press-release
10 a.m. 14th and F Sts. NW — National Press Club Newsmaker Program with Army Gen. Daniel Hokanson, chief of the National Guard Bureau and member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff https://www.press.org/events/npc-headliners-newsmaker-general-daniel-hokanson
10 a.m. HVC-Studio B, U.S. Capitol — Texas House Republican delegation news conference on “Texas’ right to defend the border,” with Rep. Jodey Arrington (R-TX)
10:30 a.m. 106 Dirksen — Senate Appropriations Committee markup of the “Defense Appropriations Act” https://www.appropriations.senate.gov/hearings
11 a.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. NW — Hudson Institute book discussion: The Origins of Victory: How Disruptive Military Innovation Determines the Fates of Great Powers, with author Andrew Krepinevich, senior fellow at Hudson; and Timothy Walton, senior fellow at Hudson https://www.eventbrite.com/e/the-origins-of-victory-tickets
12 p.m. — Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft virtual discussion: “Lessons Learned from Oversight of War and Reconstruction Efforts in Afghanistan,” with Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction John Sopko; Danielle Brian, executive director and president of the Project On Government Oversight; and Andrew Bacevich, co-founder of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft https://quincyinst.org/event/lessons-learned-from-oversight
1 p.m. — Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association discussion: “A Holistic and Integrated Approach to Achieving Zero Trust for the DoD,” with John Amorosi, federal CTO of CrowdStrike; Sky Hackett, senior zero trust architect at Amazon Web Services; Rich Johnson, federal senior sales engineer at Zscaler; Misae Romer, solutions engineer at Okta; and Diego Laje, senior reporter at SIGNAL Media https://www.workcast.com/register
1:30 p.m. The Center for the National Interest virtual discussion: “The U.S. Push for Saudi-Israel Normalization,” with Jonathan Lord, senior fellow and director, Middle East Security program, Center for a New American Security; Firas Maksad, senior fellow and director of strategic outreach at the Middle East Institute; and Greg Priddy, senior fellow, Middle East at the Center https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register
2 p.m. 2253 Rayburn — House Transportation and Infrastructure Coast Guard and Maritime Transportation Subcommittee hearing: “Review of the Recapitalization of the United States Coast Guard Surface, Air, IT, and Shoreside Assets” https://transportation.house.gov/calendar
2 p.m. — National Security Institute virtual discussion: “The New Soviet Union: What Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine Means for the Freedom of the Near Abroad,” with Rose Gottemoeller, former deputy secretary general of NATO; and moderator Jennifer Cafarella, NSI fellow, director of strategic initiatives at the Institute for the Study of War https://nationalsecurity.gmu.edu/the-new-soviet-union
3:15 p.m. Fayetteville, North Carolina — Association of the U.S. Army Warfighter Summit and Exposition, with Army Gen. James Rainey, commanding general, U.S. Army Futures Command https://www.youtube.com/channel/
FRIDAY | AUGUST 4
9:30 a.m Summerall Field, Joint Base Myer-Henderson Hall, Virginia — Relinquishment of Responsibility ceremony for outgoing Army Chief of Staff Gen. James McConville and Sgt. Maj. of the Army Michael Grinston https://home.army.mil/jbmhh/index.php
QUOTE OF THE DAY “I was informed in the course of my official duties of a multi-decade UAP crash retrieval and reverse engineering program to which I was denied access.” Retired Maj. David Grusch, former Air Force intelligence officer, testifying before a House Oversight subcommittee that the U.S. government possesses materials of nonhuman origin that were taken from UFO crash sites.