Ukraine’s defense minister admits counteroffensive is behind schedule
Jamie McIntyre
REZNIKOV: ‘MISPERCEPTION COUNTEROFFENSIVE SHOULD BE QUICK’: As the Biden administration is poised to announce that another $400 million in ammunition and drones will be sent to Ukraine from U.S. stocks, Ukraine’s defense minister concedes Russia’s defensive lines are proving more formidable than he hoped.
“It’s a question of the ammunition, of the artillery shells, of the more artillery systems. It’s a question that we have a very long battlefield line also, and we have against us big quantity of enemies,” Oleksii Reznikov told CNN’s Alex Marquardt in an interview that aired last night. “It’s a misperception that every counteroffensive should be quick. We had time to prepare our armed forces with our partners, but they also had time to make security zone with the trenches, with their mines.”
“Do you acknowledge, though, that the plan is behind schedule?” Marquardt asked, to which Reznikov replied with a simple, “Yes.”
“They’re picking their way through these very considerable minefields, anti-tank and anti-personnel mines, working their way past tank ditches, dragon’s teeth obstacles, trench lines, and so forth,” said former U.S. Central Commander and CIA Director David Petraeus on CNN, noting that Russian troops, while generally poorly led and suffering from low morale, still “are quite formidable” in number and artillery capability. “And the question is, when can the Ukrainians get the kind of break, the kind of penetration where they might be able to bring to bear the new combined arms capabilities, Western tanks, and infantry fighting vehicles and so forth, and test these Russian forces, see if they will crumble.”
ZAPORIZHZHIA PLANT MINED: Three weeks after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky accused Russia of planting “objects resembling explosives” on the roof of buildings at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors did find some mines, but not on the roof.
“During a walkdown on 23 July, the IAEA team saw some mines located in a buffer zone between the site’s internal and external perimeter barriers. The experts reported that they were situated in a restricted area that operating plant personnel cannot access and were facing away from the site,” IAEA Director-General Rafael Grossi said in a statement. “The team did not observe any within the inner site perimeter during the walkdown.”
“The IAEA’s initial assessment based on its own observations and the plant’s clarifications is that any detonation of these mines should not affect the site’s nuclear safety and security systems,” Grossi said. Nevertheless, he added, “Having such explosives on the site is inconsistent with the IAEA safety standards and nuclear security guidance and creates additional psychological pressure on plant staff.”
The statement also said no “heavy military equipment” was observed during the walk-down inspection.
TARGETING HISTORY: Ukraine’s port city of Odesa has been the target of nightly missile and drone attacks as Russia is attempting to prevent Ukraine from exporting food products, now that Moscow has refused to renew the Black Sea grain deal.
The strikes have targeted grain silos and port infrastructure, but also, a large number of missiles have hit the historic city center. “These attacks have featured an unusual number of AS-4 KITCHEN missiles, a 5.5 ton weapon originally designed to destroy aircraft carriers,” said the British Defense Ministry in its latest intelligence update. “Since Russia failed to renew the [grain] deal, the Kremlin likely feels less politically constrained, and is attempting to strike targets in Odesa because it believes Ukraine is storing military assets in these areas.”
UNESCO, the United Nations’s cultural agency, said the missile attacks damaged at least two dozen historic landmarks, including Odesa’s Transfiguration Cathedral founded in 1794. “Intentional destruction of cultural sites may amount to a war crime,” the agency said in a statement. “UNESCO is deeply dismayed and condemns in the strongest terms the brazen attack carried out by the Russian forces.”
“This outrageous destruction marks an escalation of violence against the cultural heritage of Ukraine. I strongly condemn this attack against culture,” said UNESCO Director-General Audrey Azoulay. “I urge the Russian Federation to take meaningful action to comply with its obligations under international law.”
OPINION: RUSSIA ESCALATES AGAINST WEST WITH NEW UKRAINE GRAIN STRIKES
Good Tuesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Conrad Hoyt. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense.
CLICK HERE TO SIGN UP OR READ BACK ISSUES OF DAILY ON DEFENSE
Subscribe today to the Washington Examiner magazine and get Washington Briefing: politics and policy stories that will keep you up to date with what’s going on in Washington. SUBSCRIBE NOW: Just $1.00 an issue!
HAPPENING TODAY: Members of the House Freedom Caucus will be holding a news conference at 11 a.m. to discuss their plans for cuts in the fiscal 2024 appropriations bills that would be deeper than the caps agreed to in the debt ceiling deal negotiated by House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) and President Joe Biden.
Last week, members of the Freedom Caucus met with House leaders to discuss their demand that overall funding for 2024, including for defense, be set closer to 2022 levels instead of 2023.
That’s teeing up a showdown with the Senate, with less than a week to go before the scheduled August recess to pass appropriations bills before the end of September.
TIME-CRUNCHED SENATE RACES TO PASS DEFENSE BILL BEFORE AUGUST RECESS
DEMOCRATS: DO SOMETHING ABOUT TUBERVILLE: For Democrats frustrated with Sen. Tommy Tuberville’s (R-AL) stranglehold on more than 260 military promotions, it’s come down to begging Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) to intervene.
“We know you share our concerns about the consequences of this hold on our armed services, and as the leader of your conference, we urge you to take stronger action to resolve this situation,” eight Democrats on the Senate Armed Services Committee pleaded in a letter to McConnell. “Tuberville has been single-handedly blocking the promotion of hundreds of generals and admirals, threatening our national security and the orderly and necessary leadership transitions.”
Tuberville has vowed not to release his hold on promotions and confirmations unless the Pentagon rescind its policy that reimburses service members and their dependents for travel expenses to obtain abortions if they are based in a state that restricts or bans the procedure.
“In the coming months, more than half of the current Joint Chiefs are required to vacate their posts, and due to Senator Tuberville’s stonewalling, they’ll do so without a Senate-approved successor in place,” the senators wrote.
The letter is signed by Sens. Mazie Hirono (D-HI), Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), Jacky Rosen (D-NV), Richard Blumenthal (D-CT), Tim Kaine (D-VA), Angus King (I-ME), Mark Kelly (D-AZ), and Tammy Duckworth (D-IL).
THE FATE OF PVT. KING: North Korea has acknowledged that it is holding U.S. Army Pvt. Travis King, but is saying little else.
“We have not had any substantive communications with North Korea,” said State Department spokesman Matthew Miller. “We have made outreach to North Korea to let them know that we wanted to ascertain the whereabouts of Private King, we wanted information about his safety, but we have not received any response from them at all.”
The U.S. has no formal diplomatic relations with Pyongyang, but the American-led United Nations Command said yesterday it started a conversation with North Korea about King, who bolted across the border last week during a tour of the DMZ, instead of shipping back home to Fort Bliss, Texas, where he faced discipline for his involvement in an assault during his time in South Korea.
“I was encouraged by the moderate statement of the North Koreans. They acknowledged that King had crossed in an unauthorized way,” said Bill Richardson, a former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, who has negotiated the release of Americans held by North Korea in the past.
“What we need to do is keep this on a humanitarian basis,” Richardson told CNN. “We’ve got enormous tension with North Korea right now. We’ve got the nuclear submarine. We’ve got exercises with South Korea. We’ve got the North Koreans shooting missiles … So I think it’s important that we, the United States politicians, the White House, just stay cool. Don’t provoke the North Koreans.”
“This young man, troubled, crossed in an unauthorized way. He’s going to face disciplinary action. But he’s an American. He’s a serviceman. We want to get him back. He’s troubled. He has a family. So what we don’t want to do is exacerbate the situation.”
UN NOW COMMUNICATING WITH NORTH KOREA ABOUT DETAINED US SOLDIER
The Rundown
Washington Examiner: Time-crunched Senate races to pass defense bill before August recess
Washington Examiner: Pence says US need not choose between fixing country’s problems and supporting Ukraine
Washington Examiner: Opinion: Russia escalates against West with new Ukraine grain strikes
Washington Examiner: China and Russia train together to sink US submarines
Washington Examiner: UN now communicating with North Korea about detained US soldier
Washington Examiner: Russia largely thwarts Ukrainian drone attacks in Moscow and Crimea, Kremlin says
Washington Examiner: Netanyahu’s judicial reform ‘gamble’ puts him on collision course with Mossad
Washington Examiner: Opinion: If the US is serious about countering China, why does it ignore Africa?
Politico: Senate Aims to Sidestep Culture War Land Mines in Race to Pass Defense Bill
Air Force Times: Air Force Says Funding Snafu Hasn’t Cancelled Separations, Retirements
AP: Iran Kicks Off Air Force Drill as US Sends More Fighter Planes to the Region
Breaking Defense: As Israel’s Air Force Reservists Join Protests, Country Faces Potential Turning Point
Military.com: Pentagon COVID-19 Case Registry Is Riddled with Errors, Watchdog Finds
AP: U.S. To Send Up To $400 Million In Military Aid To Ukraine
Wall Street Journal: Ukraine’s Stalled Offensive Puts Biden in Uneasy Political Position
New York Times: Russia Hits Danube Port, Escalating Grain Attacks
Washington Post: Putin appeared paralyzed and unable to act in first hours of rebellion
USNI News: 25,000 Sailors, Marines To Prepare For Global Conflict In Large Scale Exercise 2023
Washington Times: Beijing Vows To Thwart Renewed U.S. Spying After CIA Director Burns’ Remarks
Financial Times: Chinese Base In Cambodia Nears Completion In Challenge To U.S. Naval Power
Air & Space Forces Magazine: STARCOM Gets a New Commander at a ‘Hinge in Space Force History’
Breaking Defense: First STARCOM ‘Orbital Warfare’ Exercise Delayed Towards End of Year
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Air Force Dropping ‘Vice’ Commander Title; Now It’s ‘Deputy’
Space News: Maxar to Begin Production of New Small Satellite Bus
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Pentagon Leaders Emphasize ‘Responsible’ Options for Countering Space Weapons
19fortyfive.com: Prioritizing Ukraine Aid Threatens Deterrence by Denial in the Pacific
Calendar
TUESDAY | JULY 25
9 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW — Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and Chatham House discussion: “The Dangers of Premature Peace Plans in the Russo-Ukrainian War,” with Keir Giles, senior consulting fellow at the Chatham House Russia and Eurasia Program; and Sam Greene, director of democratic resilience at the Center for European Policy Analysis https://www.csis.org/events/dangers-premature-peace-plans-russo-ukrainian-war
9 a.m. 601 13th St. NW — Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress in person discussion: “Russia, Ukraine, and the Future of European Security,” with retired Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, former commanding general of U.S. Army Europe and senior adviser, Human Rights First; and Joshua Huminski, director, Mike Rogers Center for Intelligence and Global Affairs. RSVP: [email protected]
9 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW — Center for Strategic and International Studies in-person and virtual event: “The Dangers of Premature Peace Plans in the Russo-Ukrainian War,” with Keir Giles, senior consulting fellow, Russia and Eurasia Program, Chatham House; Sam Greene, director, democratic resilience, Center for European Policy Analysis; Liana Fix, fellow for Europe, David Rockefeller Studies Program, Council on Foreign Relations; and moderator Max Bergmann, director, Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program and Stuart Center, CSIS https://www.csis.org/events/dangers-premature-peace-plans-russo-ukrainian-war
12:30 p.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW — Wilson Center Wahba Institute for Strategic Competition discussion: “The Indo-Pacific Economic Framework,” with Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/conversation-indo-pacific
1 p.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. NW — Hudson Institute discussion: “Lessons from the World War II Arsenal of Democracy,” with Mark Wilson, professor at the University of North Carolina at Charlotte; Larrie Ferriero, professor at George Mason University; Arthur Herman, Hudson senior fellow; and Miles Yu, director of the Hudson China Center https://www.hudson.org/events/lessons-world-war-ii-arsenal-democracy
2 p.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW — Brookings Institution in-person and virtual discussion: “Lost and broken: Reflections on mental health, health care, and the US armed forces,” with Rep. Adam Smith (D-WA), ranking member, House Armed Services Committee, and moderator Michael O’Hanlon, senior fellow and director, Strobe Talbott Center for Security, Strategy, and Technology, Brookings https://www.brookings.edu/events/lost-and-broken-rep-adam-smith
2 p.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “National Security and Spectrum for 5G,” focusing on the implications of Chinese leadership in the field https://www.csis.org/events/national-security-and-spectrum-5g
WEDNESDAY | JULY 26
9 a.m. 216 Hart — Senate Armed Services Committee hearing on the nominations of Air Force Lt. Gen. Gregory Guillot to be commander of the U.S. Northern Command and commander of the North American Aerospace Defense Command; and Space Force Lt. Gen. Stephen Whiting to be commander of the U.S. Space Command https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings
10 a.m. 2141 Rayburn — House Judiciary Committee hearing: “Oversight of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security,” with testimony from Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas https://judiciary.house.gov/committee-activity/hearings
10 a.m. — Center for a New American Security virtual book discussion of Thanks For Your Service: The Causes and Consequences of Public Confidence in the U.S. Military, with author Peter Feaver, professor of political science and public policy at Duke University; and Katherine Kuzminski, senior fellow and program director of the CNAS Military, Veterans, and Society Program https://www.cnas.org/events/virtual-book-launch
10 a.m. 2154 Rayburn — House Oversight and Accountability National Security, the Border, and Foreign Affairs Subcommittee hearing: “Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena: Implications on National Security, Public Safety, and Government Transparency” https://oversight.house.gov/hearing/unidentified-anomalous-phenomena
10 a.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW — Brookings Institution discussion: “U.S.-China Proximate Military Operations in the Maritime, Air, and Space Domains,” with Josiah Case, research analyst at the Center for Naval Analyses; and Robin Dickey, space policy and strategy analyst at the Aerospace Corporation https://www.brookings.edu/events/us-china
11 a.m. 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace discussion with the 2022 Nobel Peace Prize laureates From Ukraine, Belarus, and Russia: Oleksandra Matviichuk, director of the Center for Civil Liberties; Kanstantsin Staradubets, coordinator of the Viasna Human Rights Center; and Aleksandr Cherkasov, chairman of the Russian human rights center Memorial https://carnegieendowment.org/2023/07/26/conversation
11 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies’s Impossible State podcast discussion: “A Week of Detention and Deterrence on the Korean Peninsula,” with Andrew Yeo, chairman of the Brookings Institution’s Center for East Asia Policy Studies; and Victor Cha, CSIS Korea chairman https://www.csis.org/events/impossible-state-live-podcast
1 p.m. 2154 Rayburn — House Oversight and Accountability Cybersecurity, Information Technology, and Government Innovation Subcommittee hearing: “Getting Nowhere: DoD’s Failure to Replace the Defense Travel System,” with testimony from Jeff Register, director of the Special Operations Division, Defense Human Resources Activity in the Office of the Defense Undersecretary for Personnel & Readiness; and Elizabeth Field, director of defense capabilities and management at the Government Accountability Office https://oversight.house.gov/hearing/getting-nowhere
2 p.m. 310 Cannon — House Homeland Security Border Security and Enforcement Subcommittee and Counterterrorism, Law Enforcement, and Intelligence Subcommittee hearing: “The Real Cost of an Open Border: How Americans are Paying the Price” http://homeland.house.gov
2 p.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. NW — Hudson Institute discussion: “Space and U.S. National Security,” with Even Rogers, CEO of True Anomaly; retired Col. Dean Bellamy, executive vice president of national security space at Redwire; Jason Kim, senior policy analyst at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration; Arthur Herman, Hudson senior fellow; and Peter Huessy, Hudson senior fellow https://www.hudson.org/events/space-us-national-security
4 p.m. 106 Dirksen — Senate Armed Services Personnel Subcommittee hearing: “Potential Budgetary Efficiencies Achieved Through Improvement To Management And Planning Processes Within Defense Department Personnel Programs,” with testimony from Michael Roark, deputy inspector general, evaluations component, Department of Defense, Office of Inspector General; David Mosher, assistant director for national security, Congressional Budget Office; and Elizabeth Field, director, Defense Capabilities and Management, Government Accountability Office https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings
7 p.m. 390 Cannon — House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party hearing: “Commanding Heights: Ensuring U.S. Leadership in the Critical and Emerging Technologies of the 21st Century,” with testimony from Josh Wolfe, co-founder and managing partner, Lux Capital; William Evanina, former director, National Counterintelligence and Security Center and CEO of The Evanina Group; and Lindsay Gorman, senior fellow for emerging technologies, German Marshall Fund https://selectcommitteeontheccp.house.gov/committee
THURSDAY | JULY 27
10 a.m. HVC-210 — House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Oversight and Accountability hearing: “A Failure to Plan: Examining the Biden Administration’s Preparation for the Afghanistan Withdrawal,” with testimony from retired Col. Seth Krummrich, vice president, Global Guardian, former chief of staff, Special Operations Command Central; and Command Sgt. Maj. Jacob Smith https://foreignaffairs.house.gov/press-release
10 a.m. 14th and F Sts. NW — National Press Club Newsmaker Program with Army Gen. Daniel Hokanson, chief of the National Guard Bureau and member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff https://www.press.org/events/npc-headliners-newsmaker-general-daniel-hokanson
10:30 a.m. 106 Dirksen — Senate Appropriations Committee markup of the “Defense Appropriations Act” https://www.appropriations.senate.gov/hearings
11 a.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. NW — Hudson Institute book discussion: The Origins of Victory: How Disruptive Military Innovation Determines the Fates of Great Powers, with author Andrew Krepinevich, senior fellow at Hudson; and Timothy Walton, senior fellow at Hudson https://www.eventbrite.com/e/the-origins-of-victory-tickets
12 p.m. — Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft virtual discussion: “Lessons Learned from Oversight of War and Reconstruction Efforts in Afghanistan,” with Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction John Sopko; Danielle Brian, executive director and president of the Project On Government Oversight; and Andrew Bacevich, co-founder of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft https://quincyinst.org/event/lessons-learned-from-oversight
1 p.m. — Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association discussion: “A Holistic and Integrated Approach to Achieving Zero Trust for the DoD,” with John Amorosi, federal CTO of CrowdStrike; Sky Hackett, senior zero trust architect at Amazon Web Services; Rich Johnson, federal senior sales engineer at Zscaler; Misae Romer, solutions engineer at Okta; and Diego Laje, senior reporter at SIGNAL Media https://www.workcast.com/register
1:30 p.m. The Center for the National Interest virtual discussion: “The U.S. Push for Saudi-Israel Normalization,” with Jonathan Lord, senior fellow and director, Middle East Security program, Center for a New American Security; Firas Maksad, senior fellow and director of strategic outreach at the Middle East Institute; and Greg Priddy, senior fellow, Middle East at the Center https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register
2 p.m. 2253 Rayburn — House Transportation and Infrastructure Coast Guard and Maritime Transportation Subcommittee hearing: “Review of the Recapitalization of the United States Coast Guard Surface, Air, IT, and Shoreside Assets” https://transportation.house.gov/calendar
2 p.m. — National Security Institute virtual discussion: “The New Soviet Union: What Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine Means for the Freedom of the Near Abroad,” with Rose Gottemoeller, former deputy secretary general of NATO; and moderator Jennifer Cafarella, NSI fellow, director of strategic initiatives at the Institute for the Study of War https://nationalsecurity.gmu.edu/the-new-soviet-union
QUOTE OF THE DAY “This outrageous destruction marks an escalation of violence against the cultural heritage of Ukraine. I strongly condemn this attack against culture, and I urge the Russian Federation to take meaningful action to comply with its obligations under international law.” Audrey Azoulay, UNESCO director-general, calling Russia’s targeting of a designated World Heritage site, including Odesa’s historic Transfiguration Cathedral, a potential war crime.