Milley offers sober but cautiously upbeat assessment of Ukraine’s plodding counteroffensive
Jamie McIntyre
‘FAR FROM A FAILURE’: On paper, Ukraine’s NATO-trained and equipped army should enjoy a decisive advantage over Russia’s demoralized and poorly-led invasion force, depleted after more than 500 days of war. Computerized war games predicted a breakthrough of Russian front lines by now, five weeks into Ukraine’s much-anticipated counteroffensive. But instead, Ukraine suffered heavy early losses and reverted to a strategy of slowly probing Russia’s defense belts of minefields and trenches.
“That’s the difference between war on paper and real war,” said Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, at a Pentagon briefing, following a virtual meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group. “These are real people in real machines that are out there really clearing real minefields and they’re really dying.”
“The Russians have had several months to put in a very complex defense in depth, the linear defense in depth. It’s not quite connected trench lines like World War I, but it’s not dissimilar from that, either,” Milley said. “They’re working their way through it. It is far from a failure, in my view. I think that it’s way too early to make that kind of call. I think there’s a lot of fighting left to go.”
SLOW UKRAINIAN COUNTEROFFENSIVE ‘FAR FROM A FAILURE,’ MILLEY SAYS
‘A ROBUST RESERVE FORCE LIES IN WAIT’: “The Russian situation is not very good, even though they’ve been fighting a fight because of the minefields,” Milley said. “The troops that are manning those Russian lines are poorly trained, poorly equipped. Their sustainment and logistics is not high. Their morale is low.”
“What the Ukrainians have, though, is a significant amount of combat power not yet committed,” he said. “A robust Ukrainian reserve force lies in wait to be committed at the optimal time and place of Ukrainian choosing.”
“Right now, they are preserving their combat power and they are slowly and deliberately and steadily working their way through all these minefields. And it’s a tough fight. It’s a very difficult fight.”
The U.S. and its allies have trained 17 brigade combat teams for this offensive and more than 63,000 troops, and the training, along with the flow of arms and ammunition, continues.
“This is not over. We continue to generate combat power. We’re training and equipping three brigades in Germany right now and there’s other training ongoing around the region,” said Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin. “We’re going to continue to push in additional Bradley fighting vehicles, and also Strykers and artillery pieces … We’re going to do everything we can to make sure that Ukrainians can be a success.”
THE LACK OF AIRPOWER: Milley continued to push back against critics who say Ukraine’s lack of modern warplanes, specifically U.S. F-16s, is seriously hampering progress because Ukraine can’t provide robust air cover for its ground troops.
“What you want to do is protect those assault forces from Russian close-air support and/or attack helicopters,” Milley said. “The most effective and efficient and cost-effective way to do that right now for the Ukrainians is from ground-to-air through air defense systems.”
“The casualties that the Ukrainians are suffering on this offensive are not so much from Russian airpower; they’re from minefields, minefields that are covered with direct fire from anti-tank hunter-killer teams, that sort of thing. So it’s minefields. So the problem to solve is minefields, not the air piece right this minute,” he argued. “That’s what the coalition is trying to provide them: additional MICLICs, mine-clearing line charges, Bangalores, that sort of thing, in order to continue to work their way the minefields.”
It will take years and many billions of dollars to get Ukraine enough F-16s and trained pilots to make a difference, Milley argues. “Focus on air defense, focus on the blocking-and-tackling sort of offensive combined arms maneuver, which is artillery, as both long-range and short-range artillery, and then get in your engineers and your mine-breaching equipment. That’s the kind of stuff they need.”
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HAPPENING TODAY: Israeli President Isaac Herzog addresses a joint meeting of Congress at 11 a.m., marking Israel’s 75th anniversary year. Herzog’s speech comes 35 years after an address by his father, then-President Chaim Herzog, and a day after meeting with President Joe Biden at the White House.
In brief remarks, Herzog, whose role as head of state is largely ceremonial, acknowledged tensions between the U.S. and the right-wing government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, whose pursued judicial overhaul has sparked widespread protests in Israel.
“There are some enemies of ours that sometimes mistake the fact that we may have some differences as impacting our unbreakable bond,” Herzog said.
DeSANTIS ON UKRAINE, CHINA, AND THE ‘WOKE’ MILITARY: In a brisk 15-minute interview on CNN, GOP presidential hopeful Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) outlined how he would deal with the war in Ukraine, the threat from China, and social issues in the U.S. military.
On Ukraine, “the goal should be a sustainable, enduring peace in Europe, but one that does not reward aggression,” the Florida governor told CNN’s Jake Tapper. “There’s going to be different levers that you’re going to be able to pull … We’re going to be much more aggressive on energy and export, because I think that’s been Putin’s lifeline. I want the Europeans dependent on the United States for that, not him.”
On China, DeSantis’s plans sounded a lot like the current Biden administration policy, albeit without Biden’s vague pledge to send U.S. forces to defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion of the island. “Our policy is going to be very simple. We’re going to deter that from happening,” DeSantis said. “China respects hard power. If you have hard power, if you have strong alliances.”
DeSantis also argued that the debate over whether climate change is a national security threat should not enter into decisions about building and fielding a more lethal military. “I don’t want to force the Department of Defense to be using electric vehicles,” he said. “I just don’t think it should be a factor in terms of how we project power in this country. Focus on how lethal we can be and focus on them getting the mission done.”
“I can tell you China is not going to use those considerations. If they need to burn more coal to defend their country, they are going to burn more coal to defend their country.”
DeSANTIS: I WILL END ‘ABORTION TOURISM’: DeSantis, who recently signed a six-week abortion ban into law in Florida, would not say if he would seek a similar nationwide ban, but said he agreed with Republicans in Congress who argue the Pentagon should not be facilitating access to abortions by granting paid leave and reimbursing travel expenses for military members and dependents based in states where abortion is restricted.
“We’re going to reverse the abortion tourism policy in the Department of Defense. They are actually paying people to go and get abortions with American tax dollars as part of the military. They won’t even pay you. You lose a loved one, you don’t get that type of time off to be able to go to do funerals,” DeSantis said. “I’m pro-life, I will be a pro-life president, and we will support pro-life policies.”
Military members do get up to two weeks of bereavement leave for the death of a spouse or a child, but travel expenses are generally not covered.
DESANTIS PLANS TO OVERHAUL MILITARY AND DITCH ‘WOKENESS’ AMID RECRUITMENT WOES
AUSTIN: ‘WE’RE GOING TO ENSURE THAT THEY HAVE ACCESS’: At yesterday’s Pentagon briefing, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin again called on Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-AL) to lift his hold on the promotion and confirmation of more than 250 senior military officers.
“One in five of my troops, our troops, are women. They don’t get a chance to pick where they’re assigned. They’re serving our country. They’re sacrificing each and every day, and they deserve, in my view and in the view of our leadership, they deserve to have access to noncovered reproductive healthcare, and that’s what this policy does,” Austin said.
“I know Senator Tuberville has said that it’s illegal. It’s not illegal, and we’ve made that point a number of times,” Austin said. “This is a readiness issue … I would imagine our adversaries would look at something like this and be — and be pretty happy that … that we create this kind of turbulence within our force.”
Late yesterday, Austin called Tuberville again, and his spokesman Zach Bannon released a short statement that was posted on Twitter.
“Coach is grateful for another cordial conversation with the Secretary,” the statement said. “The Secretary and the Senator discussed tomorrow’s Senate briefing with Pentagon officials on the effects of the Pentagon’s new abortion policy. Coach looks forward to the briefing and to further discussions to resolve the situation.”
The House NDAA includes a reversal of the Pentagon policy, but Tuberville has said repeatedly that he will keep his hold until there is a vote on the policy on the floor of the Senate, so that “the American people have a say-so, not the Pentagon.”
But Tuberville hasn’t introduced legislation and has argued debate on amendments don’t count. Instead, he has proposed a very specific, unusual strategy: Democrats should introduce their own bill on the policy and hold a vote,” according to the Associated Press.
KIRBY: ‘I’M REALLY GLAD YOU ASKED THAT QUESTION’: At Monday’s White House briefing, NSC spokesman John Kirby, a retired rear admiral, gave an impassioned defense of the Pentagon policy.
“I have a son in the Navy … and son-in-law, too. They’re both stationed down in Norfolk on destroyers. You know, they’re proud to keep serving their country in the Navy. But, you know, the Navy told them where to go. They go — you go where you’re told. That’s the way orders work. You go where you’re assigned; you don’t get to choose. And so, what happens if you get assigned to a state like Alabama, which has a pretty restrictive abortion law in place, and you’re concerned about your reproductive care? What do you do? Do you say ‘no’ and get out? Well, some people may decide to do that. And what does that mean? That means we lose talent — important talent.”
“I had a chance a couple of weeks ago to meet with some military spouses here at the White House. Some were active-duty members. Some were spouses. All were women. And to a one, they told me that abortion laws in this country that are now being passed are absolutely having an effect on their willingness to continue serving in uniform or to encourage — or discourage, in this case — their spouses from continuing service. So, if you don’t think there’s going to be a retention and a morale issue, think again. Because it’s already having that effect.”
US SOLDIER ‘DEFECTS’ TO NORTH KOREA: Private 2nd Class Travis King was facing separation from the U.S. Army after getting in trouble in South Korea. He’d been held in a South Korean jail on assault charges and the Army was shipping him back to Fort Bliss, Texas, on a commercial flight for disciplinary proceedings and discharge.
But once he cleared security and was unescorted, he left the airport and made his way to the DMZ where he joined a public tour in civilian clothes, and when the opportunity presented itself, bolted across the border, immediately being taken into custody by the North Koreans.
At the Pentagon, Austin said the circumstances of the apparent defection, the first by a U.S. soldier in more than 40 years, are unclear. “What we do know is that one of our service members who was on a tour, willfully and without authorization, crossed the military demarcation line,” Austin said. In terms of my concerns, I’m absolutely foremost concerned about the welfare of our troop.”
According to the Army, King is a cavalry scout who joined the military in January 2021. “During his Korean Force Rotation he was originally assigned to 6th Squadron, 1st Cavalry Regiment, 1st Brigade Combat Team, 1st Armored Division and is currently administratively attached to 1st Battalion, 12th Infantry Regiment, 2nd Brigade Combat Team, 4th Infantry Division,” an Army spokesman said in a statement. “His awards include the National Defense Service Medal, the Korean Defense Service Medal and Overseas Service Ribbon.”
OPINION: ARMY PRIVATE CHOSE A PARTICULARLY POOR TIME TO GO TO NORTH KOREA
The Rundown
Washington Examiner: Slow Ukrainian counteroffensive ‘far from a failure,’ Milley says
Washington Examiner: UN chief ‘exploring’ naval escort for Ukrainian grain despite ‘certain risks’ from Russia
Washington Examiner: North Korea detains US citizen who entered country from South Korea
Washington Examiner: Opinion: Army private chose a particularly poor time to go to North Korea
Washington Examiner: White House slams Rand Paul for State Department appointee holds
Washington Examiner: Tuberville speaks with Austin ahead of Senate briefing on Pentagon abortion policy
Washington Examiner: Wicker backs GOP on abortion but hopes Pentagon funding debates ‘stay away from social issues’
Washington Examiner: DeSantis vows to welcome back servicemembers who refused COVID-19 vaccine with back pay
Washington Examiner: State Department faces bipartisan pressure to reveal ‘what was on’ Chinese spy balloon
Washington Examiner: Judge Cannon split on trial time frame as DOJ and defense feud
Washington Examiner: Navy veteran Hung Cao enters GOP primary to challenge Virginia Sen. Tim Kaine
Washington Examiner: Former combat aviator announces GOP bid for open House seat in Maryland
Washington Post: Crimea looms in the crosshairs as Ukraine’s counteroffensive bogs down
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Russian Fighter Put ‘Lives at Risk’ By Harassing a USAF Surveillance Plane Over Syria
Stars and Stripes: Smaller Marine Forces To Focus On Short-Term Deployments In Middle East
New York Times: U.S. Blacklists Two Spyware Firms Run by an Israeli Former General
Military Times: Here’s How the Senate Wants to Boost Military Recruitment
DefenseScoop: DARPA Taps Raytheon for Next Phase of Air-Breathing Hypersonic Program
Defense One: Software Problems Will Cut F-35 Deliveries This Year, Lockheed Says
Breaking Defense: China’s J-20 Fighter Seems to Have a New Homegrown Engine, After Years of Struggle
New York Times: Kissinger Makes Unannounced Visit To China, Meets Defense Minister
Bloomberg: U.S. Says Chinese Military Ignored Invitation To Defense Event
Defense News: Sluggish Procurement Stalling Pentagon Progress on AI, Experts Say
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Air Chiefs from US, Britain, and Australia Align on E-7 Wedgetail
Breaking Defense: SDA Racing Ahead with New, US-Based Satellite Ground Stations, Could Meet Hiccup Abroad
Military.com: DOJ Puts Pressure on States to Recognize Military Spouse Job Licenses After New Law
Air & Space Forces Magazine: National Guard Charts New Course for Growing Overseas Partnerships
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Why Are Air Force PJs Training in a 140-Year-Old Copper Mine?
19fortyfive.com: ‘Bleed’ Putin Dry: Ukraine Is Changing Military Tactics to Fight Russia
19fortyfive.com: World War III Threat: Would Ukraine Dare to Invade Russia?
The Cipher Brief: Western Focus Sharpens on China Over Black Sea Grain Deal
The Cipher Brief: Hot-Button Adds to U.S. Defense Bill Echo Truman Era-Fight
The Cipher Brief: A Deep Dive Into the US-UK Special Intelligence Relationship
Forbes: Opinion: Electronic Warfare Has Become A Defining Feature Of Future Conflict. Here’s Why.
Calendar
WEDNESDAY | JULY 19
8:55 a.m. 400 Courthouse Sq., Alexandria, Virginia — Institute for Defense and Government Advancement Veterans Affairs Healthcare Summit with Angela Billups, executive director of the Veterans Affairs Office of Acquisition and Logistics https://www.idga.org/events-veteransaffairshealthcare
9 a.m. 1030 15th St. NW — Atlantic Council discussion: “How can the U.S. counter normalization with Assad in the Middle East,” with Rep. Joe Wilson (R-SC); and Mohammad Alaa Ghanem, policy chief of the Syrian American Council https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event
9 a.m. London, U.K. — International Institute for Strategic Studies virtual discussion: “Russia and the Arctic maritime challenge,” with Michael Petersen, founding director of the U.S. Naval War College’s Russia Maritime Studies Institute; and Rebecca Pincus, director of the Wilson Center’s Polar Institute https://www.iiss.org/events/2023/07/russia-and-the-arctic
9 a.m. — German Marshall Fund of the U.S. virtual discussion: “The Impact of the War in Ukraine on the Political Situation in Belarus: Three Short-Term Scenarios,” with Wojciech Przybylski, editor-in-chief of the Visegrad Insight and president of the Res Publica Foundation; Maryna Rakhlei, senior program officer at the Fund for Belarus Democracy; Artyom Shraibman, founder of Sense Analytics; Katsiaryna Lozka, GMFUS fellow; and Nicolas Bouchet, GMFUS visiting fellow https://www.gmfus.org/event/impact-war-ukraine
9 a.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Cyber, Information Technology, and Innovation Subcommittee hearing: “Man and Machine: Artificial Intelligence on the Battlefield,” with testimony from Alexandr Wang, CEO of Scale AI; Klon Kitchen, nonresident senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute; and Haniyeh Mahmoudian, global AI ethicist for DataRobot https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings/citi-hearing
9 a.m. 5000 Seminary Rd., Alexandria, Virginia — National Defense Industrial Association 2023 JADC2 All Domain Warfare Symposium, with Young Bang, principal deputy assistant Army secretary for acquisition, logistics and technology. RSVP: [email protected]
9:30 a.m. 2301 Constitution Ave. NW — U.S. Institute of Peace discussion: “Russia in Africa: The Wagner Group, Russia-Africa Summit and Beyond,” with Joseph Siegle, director of research at the Africa Center for Strategic Studies; Amaka Anku, director of the Eurasia Group’s Africa Practice; and Catrina Doxsee, associate director of the Center for Strategic and International Studies’s Transnational Threats Project https://www.usip.org/events/russia-africa-wagner-group
9:45 a.m. East side of Statuary Hall, U.S. Capitol — House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) event with Israeli President Isaac Herzog ahead of the joint meeting of Congress [email protected]
11 a.m. House Chamber, U.S. Capitol — U.S. Congress hosts an address by Israeli President Isaac Herzog
11 a.m. Aspen, Colorado — Aspen Security Forum Fireside Chat with Gen. James Dickinson, commander, U.S. Space Command; and David Ignatius, columnist, Washington Post https://aspeninstitute.wufoo.com/forms
1 p.m. 1000 Massachusetts Ave. NW — Cato Institute forum: “Thawing a Frozen Conflict: The Korean War Armistice at 70 Years,” with Rep. Brad Sherman (D-CA) https://www.cato.org/events/thawing-frozen-conflict
2 p.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Military Personnel Subcommittee hearing: “Admissions, Curriculum, and Diversity of Thought at the Military Service Academies,” with testimony from Lt. Gen. Steven Gilland, superintendent of the U.S. Military Academy, West Point; Vice Adm. Sean Buck, superintendent of the U.S. Naval Academy; and Lt. Gen. Richard Clark, superintendent of the U.S. Air Force Academy https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings
2 p.m. 310 Cannon — House Homeland Security Committee hearing: “Biden and Mayorkas’ Open Border: Advancing Cartel Crime in America,” with testimony from Jaeson Jones, former captain of intelligence and counter-terrorism for the Texas Department of Public Safety; Jessica Vaughan, director of policy studies at the Center for Immigration Studies; Derek Maltz, former special agent in charge in the Drug Enforcement Administration’s Special Operations Division; Vanda Felbab-Brown, director of the Brookings Institution’s Initiative on Nonstate Armed Actors https://homeland.house.gov/media-advisory
2 p.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies International Security Program book discussion of Sailing Upwind: Leadership and Risk from TopGun to the Situation Room, with author retired Adm. James “Sandy” Winnefeld, former vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff; and Seth Jones, senior vice president and director, CSIS International Security Program https://www.csis.org/events/lessons-leadership-and-risk-admiral-sandy-winnefeld
THURSDAY | JULY 20
9 a.m. Aspen, Colorado — Aspen Security Forum Fireside Chat with Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas; and Fareed Zakaria, host, Fareed Zakaria GPS, CNN https://aspeninstitute.wufoo.com/forms/m1bg05100mfocy2/
9:35 a.m. Aspen, Colorado — Aspen Security Forum Fireside Chat with Army Secretary Christine Wormuth; and Courtney Kube, NBC Pentagon correspondent https://aspeninstitute.wufoo.com/forms
10 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “The Department of Justice’s Implementation of the Biden Administration’s National Cybersecurity Strategy,” with Assistant Attorney General Kenneth Polite https://www.csis.org/events/department-justices
12 p.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE — Heritage Foundation discussion: “Renewing America’s Compacts in the Pacific,” with Joseph Yun, State Department special presidential envoy for compact negotiations https://www.heritage.org/asia/event/renewing-americas-compacts
1:55 p.m. Aspen, Colorado — Aspen Security Forum Fireside Chat with Colin Kahl, senior fellow, Stanford University, former undersecretary of defense for policy; Oleksandra Matviichuk, head, Centre for Civil Liberties, Ukraine; Philip Zelikow, professor of history, University of Virginia and distinguished visiting fellow, Hoover Institution, Stanford University; and Susan Glasser, staff writer, the New Yorker https://aspeninstitute.wufoo.com/forms
5 p.m. Aspen, Colorado — Aspen Security Forum Fireside Chat with CIA Director William Burns; and Mary Louise Kelly, co-host, All Things Considered, NPR https://aspeninstitute.wufoo.com/forms
FRIDAY | JULY 21
9 a.m. 201 Waterfront St., National Harbor, Maryland — Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association and the Intelligence and National Security Alliance Intelligence and National Security Summit, with Julian Gewirtz, deputy coordinator for China global affairs at the State Department; Rear Adm. Thomas Henderschedt, intelligence director, J2, at the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command; Lt. Gen. Robert “Bob” Ashley Jr., CEO of Ashley Global Leadership and Security and former deputy chief of staff for intelligence, G2, at the Army; Aastha Verma, chief of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency’s Cybersecurity Division; Rachel Grunspan, AI lead for the intelligence community in the Office of the Director of National Intelligence; Lakshmi Raman, CIA director of artificial intelligence innovation; and Jason Wang, technical director of the National Security Agency’s Computer and Analytic Sciences Research Group; and Jon Finer, deputy national security adviser https://www.insaonline.org/detail-pages/event
10 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave NW — Center for Strategic and International Studies in-person and virtual event: “Acquisition for Decision Advantage: The Role of the CDAO in Scaling Software Solutions,” with Margie Palmieri, deputy chief digital and artificial intelligence officer, Department of Defense; and Cynthia Cook, director, Defense-Industrial Initiatives Group, and senior fellow, International Security Program https://www.csis.org/events/acquisition-decision-advantage
QUOTE OF THE DAY “As Ukraine continues its counteroffensive, we are reminded that real war is not war on paper. Real war is unpredictable, it’s filled with fear and fog and friction. Real war is brutal. The crucible of combat has enormous costs, in terms of killed, wounded, displaced persons and refugees, and yet despite the enormous costs, the Ukrainians are advancing steadily and deliberately, braving brutal and bloody battles to reclaim their homeland.” Army Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.