With Wagner sidelined, pressure increases to give Ukraine new capabilities to press its advantage
Jamie McIntyre
PAST TIME FOR ATACMS? The former commanding general of the U.S. Army Europe spoke for many in the national security community when he tweeted yesterday, “Why does the Biden administration continue to refuse to provide ATACMS to Ukraine?”
“They could make Crimea untenable for Russian forces, same as when Viet Minh put artillery around French at Dien Bin Phuh,” argued retired Gen. Ben Hodges. “There’s no shortage of ATACMS — only a shortage of political will.”
The Army Tactical Missile System would give Ukraine the ability to launch precision strikes deeper behind enemy lines, in the same way the British Storm Shadow cruise missiles have proved highly effective, and according to some reports, very difficult to defend against.
“We’re extremely grateful to the Biden administration and to the people of the United States for everything they are doing for Ukraine,” said Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba in an interview with CNN that aired last night. “I only feel frustrated with the United States when decisions on delivering certain types of weapons to Ukraine take more time than I wish it took.”
“ATACMS would provide additional capacity, greater survivability, and longer range,” said John Hardie, deputy director of the Russia Program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. “That would allow Ukraine to strike more high-value military targets deep behind the front lines, including the Kerch Bridge, which Russia uses to supply its forces in southern Ukraine.”
WAGNER FORCES DISPERSED: With the head of the Wagner mercenary force, Yevgeny Prigozhin, in exile in Belarus and the future of his 25,000-strong private army uncertain, the argument for boosting Ukraine’s combat capability is gaining strength.
“By not giving Ukraine the weapons it needs to win this war, the administration is prolonging the conflict and costing countless Ukrainian lives,” said House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Michael McCaul (R-TX) earlier this month, as a bipartisan group of lawmakers urged President Joe Biden to drop his opposition to the longer-range weapons. “It is extremely disappointing the administration is sitting on billions in remaining military funding with which it could immediately transfer ATACMS to Ukraine and, in turn, help their armed forces make a major difference on the battlefield.”
A Tuesday evening missile attack on a crowded pizza restaurant in Kramatorsk in eastern Ukraine that killed nine people and wounded 56 also underscored the need for more air defenses to protect areas beyond the capital Kyiv.
Sens. Chris Van Hollen (D-MD) and Lindsey Graham (R-SC) are pushing for the U.S. to pressure Israel to agree to the transfer of an Iron Dome system to Ukraine. “To be clear, we are not asking Israel to transfer its own Iron Dome systems which are critical to their own security, but simply to allow the United States to transfer our own batteries to help the people of Ukraine,” the senators wrote to the leaders of the Senate Armed Services Committee.
WAGNER GROUP’S PRIGOZHIN ARRIVES IN BELARUS FOLLOWING FAILED RUSSIAN REBELLION
MORE, MORE, MORE: Meanwhile, the Pentagon says its latest package of military assistance for Ukraine, which was assembled before the weekend mutiny by Prigozhin, is specifically tailored to keep Ukraine’s nascent counteroffensive on track.
“In the midst of combat one can expect that equipment will be damaged, that equipment will be destroyed,” said Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder, the Pentagon’s chief spokesman. “It is a fight and it is a hard fight. And so by us providing additional armor capabilities, additional ammunition, additional breaching capabilities, that’s all meant to enable them to sustain this fight that they find themselves in.”
The $500 million package, the 41st drawdown from U.S. stocks, includes:
30 Bradley Infantry Fighting Vehicles 25 Stryker Armored Personnel Carriers Stinger anti-aircraft systems Munitions for Patriot air defense, High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), and 155 mm and 105 mm artillery Systems for obstacle and mine clearing Thermal imagery systems and night vision devices Small arms, including more than 22 million rounds of ammunition and grenades
“The additional Bradleys and Strykers will replace previous and future losses, while the breaching and mine-clearing equipment can help Ukrainian forces break through staunch Russian lines,” said the FDD’s Hardie.
“The additional ammunition will help replenish Ukrainian stocks at a time when Kyiv’s forces are expending munitions at a faster clip. The thermal imagery and night-vision equipment can bolster Ukraine’s advantage at night. Perhaps most important, this package, along with the one announced on June 13, signal that Ukraine will continue to enjoy strong support from Washington despite battlefield setbacks.”
“But President Biden can still do more,” argued Hardie. “For one thing, he should grant Ukraine’s requests for DPICM cluster munitions. These munitions offer increased lethality and would provide Ukraine with much-needed artillery ammunition even as U.S. stocks of traditional shells dwindle.”
BIDEN ADMINISTRATION ANNOUNCES $500 MILLION AID PACKAGE TO UKRAINE
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HAPPENING TODAY: NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg is in Paris meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron. They are scheduled to give joint press statements at 12 p.m. EDT before their meeting.
RUBIO’S ‘BEST GUESS’: In an appearance on Fox News last night, Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL), vice chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, offered what he called his “best guess” of what was behind Wagner warlord Yevgeny Prigozhin’s short-lived mutiny.
“It’s actually like a mafia movie, and I don’t mean to trivialize it. Prigozhin has been more effective than the Russian military, and he’s been rubbing it in their face for a long time,” Rubio told Fox anchor Bret Baier.
“He eventually figured they’re going to come for him at some point, he’d better go for them before they come for him. By them, I mean [Gen. Valery Gerasimov, chief of the General Staff and Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu]. Why he goes to Rostov is to get his hands on them and try to maybe arrest them, put them on trial, kill them, whatever he was going to do. He gets there and they’re not there, but he takes over the Ministry of Defense, which is very embarrassing. He takes over the Ministry of Defense’s operations, running the Ukrainian War, and then he marches to the outskirts of Moscow.”
“At that point, he has two choices,” said Rubio. “The first is he concluded, ‘I probably embarrassed these guys enough, I imagine Putin will now fire them, because look how far I got on their watch.’ The other is he probably calculated that he probably can’t win an all-out assault on Moscow. Here comes the fake president of Belarus with some promises, so [Prigozhin] takes that off ramp.”
“That’s my best guess, that this was really a coup against the Ministry of Defense. If it led to Putin leaving, that was fine, too,” Rubio concluded. “Ultimately, I think he felt like they’re going to come after him, he better go after them first and save himself and the guys that work for him.”
KREMLIN INSISTS PRIGOZHIN UPRISING SHOWS RUSSIA ‘CONSOLIDATED’ AROUND PUTIN
TRUMP: ‘IT WAS BRAVADO’: With the leak of the audio recording of former President Donald Trump apparently discussing top secret contingency plans for a U.S. attack on Iran, Trump continues to insist he did nothing wrong.
The recording was made at Trump’s Bedminster golf club during a meeting with biographers for his final chief of staff, Mark Meadows. Despite the implications of the conversation, Trump says no classified documents were present.
So what was he showing off? “I was talking and just holding up papers and talking about them, but I had no documents. I didn’t have any documents,” Trump said in an interview aboard his plane with Semafor and ABC News. “I would say it was bravado, if you want to know the truth, it was bravado.”
“I just held up a whole pile of — my desk is loaded up with papers. I have papers from 25 different things,” he said, including news articles about Iran.
In an interview with Fox Digital earlier in the day, Trump referred to “plans” that he kept on his desk. “I had a whole desk full of lots of papers, mostly newspaper articles, copies of magazines, copies of different plans, copies of stories, having to do with many, many subjects, and what was said was absolutely fine. … We did nothing wrong. This is a whole hoax.”
Asked about the “plans” in the plane interview, Trump said, “Did I use the word plans? What I’m referring to is magazines, newspapers, plans of buildings. I had plans of buildings. You know, building plans? I had plans of a golf course.”
THE IRAN ATTACK PLAN: Trump has accused Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Mark Milley of urging him to consider an attack on Iran, but Bob Woodward and Robert Costa’s 2021 book Peril tells a different story.
Most of what we know about Iran contingency plans comes from the book, which is based on interviews with Trump and dozens of other insiders, including Milley.
“It’s Milley’s plan. He’s required to have these on-the-shelf contingency plans. But it is Trump who raises the issue,” said Woodward on CNN yesterday. “On June 3rd, 2020, at the White House, they brought Gen. [Frank] McKenzie, the CENTCOM commander, to talk with Trump about withdrawing … from Afghanistan. Then Trump says, well, what have we got for Iran?”
“And they literally go through it. And Milley is saying to the president, ‘look, there is a bad side of this. What will the casualties be? How many pilots are going to go down? How long will this war take, three days or 30 years?’” Woodward said. “And in the second meeting, General Milley is telling President Trump, don’t do it. You will start a war that you cannot get out of.”
HUNTSMAN: TRUMP’S BOAST ‘ABSOLUTELY RIDICULOUS’: President Trump’s former ambassador to Russia is scoffing at Trump’s claim that, if elected, he could end the war in Ukraine in 24 hours by getting Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in a room together and giving them both ultimatums.
“Well I would begin to laugh out loud, but that might embarrass me, in front of your viewers,” Jon Huntsman told CNN’s Kaitlan Collins last night. “That’s just nonsense. I mean, I think we’ve had enough of the games, and the statements, and the finger-pointing, and the charades.”
“These are very complex issues. They’re steeped in a thousand years of history as it relates to Ukraine. They’re very steeped in the nature of the Russian state that Putin runs,” said Huntsman. “So, for an American leader to say, ‘I can fix this thing in a day’ is absolutely ridiculous and does not comport with reality whatsoever.”
INDUSTRY WATCH: The State Department has approved a nearly $6 billion sale of 16 P-8A Poseidon Aircraft to Canada, along with a host of supporting equipment.
The Defense Security Cooperation Agency said Boeing, maker of the maritime patrol and reconnaissance aircraft, will be the prime contractor, but that “a significant number of other companies” under contract with the U.S. Navy will provide components, systems, and engineering services as part of the $5.9 billion contract.
HOUSE COMMITTEE CHAIRMAN LAUNCHES TASK FORCE FOR OVERSEAS WEAPONS SALES
The Rundown
Washington Examiner: Wagner Group’s Prigozhin arrives in Belarus following failed Russian rebellion
Washington Examiner: Kremlin insists Prigozhin uprising shows Russia ‘consolidated’ around Putin
Washington Examiner: Eight civilians dead in Russian attack on Ukrainian restaurant
Washington Examiner: Biden administration announces $500 million aid package to Ukraine
Washington Examiner: Republicans urge US not to renew science and tech agreement with China
Washington Examiner: Lawmaker introduces bill requiring more information to be given on Americans detained abroad
Washington Examiner: DeSantis’s ‘terrifying’ border strategy blasted by liberals and immigrant advocates
Washington Examiner: House committee chairman launches task force for overseas weapons sales
Washington Examiner: Opinion: New Zealand is supposed to be our intelligence ally, but it is cozying up to China
Washington Examiner: Opinion: To strengthen America’s warfighting capabilities, the military should learn from the film franchises
New York Times: Russian General Knew Rebellion Was Imminent
Washington Post: Divisions In Russia After Failed Mutiny
CNN: Lukashenko Claims He Stopped Putin From ‘Destroying’ Wagner Group
Wall Street Journal: U.S. Sanctions Wagner Gold Operation
Stars and Stripes: Exercise Led By U.S., Ukraine Moves From Usual Black Sea Waters To UK
CNBC: Bipartisan Lawmakers Visit Taiwan As Biden Seeks To Stabilize China Relationship
Bloomberg: Billionaires And Bureaucrats Mobilize China For AI Race With US
National Defense Magazine: Marine Corps’ Littoral Capabilities Are Lagging, Berger Says
NPR: The U.S. Marine Corps Has Decommissioned Its All-Female Fourth Battalion
Space News: House Appropriators Target Space Force Programs
Defense News: Pentagon Uses Ukraine Funds to Split Supply Chains from Russia, China
Military Times: Deadline looms for vets to get retroactive toxic exposure benefits
Air & Space Forces Magazine: New Study: US Needs Counterspace Weapons for Space Superiority
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Air Force Risks Sub-Optimizing Fighter Engines — Again
Breaking Defense: Bell sees an opening in militarizing ‘cost-effective’ commercial helicopters for foreign buyers
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Northrop Tests Navigation System for Contested Airspace That Will Go on F-22
Aviation Week: US Air Force Still Determining F-15EX Training, Pilot Needs
Military.com: Making It Easier for Military Spouses to Do Government Jobs from Home? Congress Weighs New Policy.
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Large-Scale Tanker Flyovers Celebrate 100th Anniversary of First Air Refueling
19fortyfive.com: Did North Korea Threaten to Start a War?
19fortyfive.com: The Wagner Group Rebellion: What Happens Now?
19fortyfive.com: ‘Massacre’: 226,000 Dead or Wounded and Putin Is Losing in Ukraine
Forbes: Opinion: Much Ado About Nothing: Lockheed And RTX Are Not At Loggerheads Over F-35 Engine Upgrades
Calendar
WEDNESDAY | JUNE 28
9 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW — Center for Strategic and International Studies annual South China Sea Conference, with Rep. Jennifer Kiggans (R-VA); and Daniel Kritenbrink, assistant secretary of state for East Asia and the Pacific https://www.csis.org/events/thirteenth-annual-south-china-sea-conference
9 a.m. — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace virtual discussion: “Stabilizing U.S.-China Relations,” with Dennis Wilder, senior fellow at Georgetown University’s Initiative for U.S.-China Dialogue on Global Issues https://carnegieendowment.org/2023/06/28/distinguished-speaker-series
10 a.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: “How Should the U.S. Reshape its Russia Policy?” with Radjana Dugar-DePonte, representative of the Buryad-Mongol Erkheten Democratic Movement in the U.S. and secretary of the executive committee of the Free Nations League; Yevhen Hlibovytsky, partner at Pro Mova; Dylan Myles-Primakoff, senior program manager at the National Endowment for Democracy; and Stephen Sestanovich, senior fellow for Russian and Eurasian studies at the Council on Foreign Relations https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/how-should-the-us-reshape-its-russia-policy
11 a.m. — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace virtual discussion: “Beyond the Counter-offensive: Where Is Ukraine Headed?” with Kateryna Shynkaruk, CEIP nonresident scholar; Eric Ciaramella, CEIP senior fellow; and Aaron David Miller, CEIP senior fellow https://carnegieendowment.org/2023/06/28/beyond-counter-offensive
12 p.m. — The Cyber Initiatives Group 2023 Summer Summit featuring “top cyber leaders discussing emerging cyber-related national security challenges” https://register.gotowebinar.com/register
1:30 p.m. — Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin meets with German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius at the Pentagon
THURSDAY | JUNE 29
9:30 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “What is Next for North Korea?” with Markus Garlauskas, director of the Atlantic Council’s Indo-Pacific Security Initiative https://www.csis.org/events/what-next-north-korea
10 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “Previewing Vilnius,” with U.K. Ambassador to NATO David Quarrey https://www.csis.org/events/previewing-vilnius-conversation
10 a.m. 300 New Jersey Ave. NW — Federalist Society for Law and Public Policy Studies National Security Symposium on “the legal, practical, and policy implications of the war between Russia and Ukraine,” with former Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX), former U.S. ambassador to NATO; and Beth Van Schaack, ambassador-at-large for global criminal justice at the State Department https://fedsoc.org/events. Livestream: https://www.youtube.com/TheFederalistSociety
10:30 a.m. — Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies release of policy paper: “Accelerating 5th-Generation Airpower: Bringing Capability and Capacity to the Merge,” with author and retired Lt. Gen. Joseph Guastella, former deputy Air Force chief of staff for operations and senior fellow, Mitchell Institute; Douglas Birkey, executive director, Mitchell Institute; Eric Gunzinger, former F-35 program manager for flight simulation test and evaluation; and retired Air Force Gen. Jeffrey Harrigian, former commander, U.S. Air Forces Europe, U.S. Air Forces Africa, and Allied Air Command https://mitchellaerospacepower.org/event/6-29-policy-paper-release
11 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies call-in press briefing to preview the upcoming NATO Summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, with Max Bergmann, director, Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program and Stuart Center, CSIS; Sean Monaghan, visiting fellow, Europe, Russia and Eurasia Program, CSIS; Seth Jones, senior vice president, Harold Brown chairman and director, International Security Program, CSIS; and Cynthia Cook, director, Defense-Industrial Initiatives Group and senior fellow, International Security Program, CSIS. RSVP: Paige Montfort [email protected]
11 a.m. — American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research virtual discussion: “Peace in the Pacific,” with former U.S. Indo-Pacific commanders, retired Adm. Philip Davidson and Adm. Harry Harris https://www.aei.org/events/peace-in-the-pacific
12 p.m. — Foundation for Defense of Democracies lunch discussion: “Building Deterrence: Security Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific and Beyond,” with Jessica Lewis, assistant secretary of state for political military affairs; and Bradley Bowman, senior director, FDD Center on Military and Political Power https://www.fdd.org/events/2023/06/29/building-deterrence-security-cooperation
12 p.m. — Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft virtual book discussion on Russia, China and the West in the Post-Cold War Era: The Limits of Liberal Universalism, with author Suzanne Loftus, research fellow at the Quincy Institute’s Eurasia Program https://quincyinst.org/event/russia-china-and-the-west-in-the-post-cold-war-era
FRIDAY | JUNE 30
9 a.m. — Hudson Institute virtual discussion: “The Third Anniversary of the Hong Kong National Security Law,” with Benedict Rogers, co-founder and chief executive of Hong Kong Watch; and Miles Yu, director of Hudson’s China Center https://www.hudson.org/events/third-anniversary-hong-kong
12 p.m. 14th and F Sts. NW — National Press Club “Headliners Luncheon” with Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Mark Milley https://www.press.org/events/headliners/npc-headliners-luncheon
FRIDAY | JULY 7
7 a.m. Brussels, Belgium — NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg holds a news conference to preview the NATO summit in Vilnius https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news
TUESDAY | JULY 11
4 a.m. Vilnius, Lithuania — President Joe Biden attends the two-day NATO leaders summit July 11-12 https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news
9:30 a.m. 601 13th St. NW — Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress in-person book event: Z Generation: Into the Heart of Russia’s Fascist Youth, with author Ian Garner; and Joshua Huminski, director, Mike Rogers Center for Intelligence and Global Affairs. RSVP: [email protected]
QUOTE OF THE DAY “I have many responsibilities, but press secretary for Mr. Prigozhin is not one. So I really can’t comment on his current status.” Pentagon press secretary Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder, in response to a reporter’s question, “Does the DOD know for a fact that Prigozhin is still alive? Or are we in a Weekend at Bernie’s scenario right now?