Cui bono: Who blew up the Kakhovka dam?
Jamie McIntyre
WHO DID IT? As tens of thousands of Ukrainians scrambled to escape rising flood waters that inundated villages, wiped out farms, and threatened drinking water, Russia cranked up its information war over the destruction of the Kakhovka dam that unleashed an ecological and humanitarian disaster on the southern region of Ukraine.
“We strongly condemn the destruction of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant by the Ukrainian armed forces. This is a terrorist act,” the Russian Foreign Ministry tweeted. “We shall initiate a discussion for considering this crime by the Kiev regime in the UN Security Council.”
“Russian terrorists have once again proved that they are a threat to everything living. The destruction of one of the largest water reservoirs in Ukraine is absolutely deliberate,” tweeted Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
Both sides have accused the other of a false flag operation — blowing up the dam, while blaming the other for a “terrorist” attack on civilian infrastructure. As the Associated Press dryly noted in its dispatch from Kherson this morning, “It was not possible to reconcile the conflicting claims.”
“It was planned in advance by the Kiev regime for military purposes as part of the Ukraine forces’ ‘counteroffensive,’” Moscow alleged in a statement. “The Kiev regime not only launched mass artillery attacks against the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant, but also deliberately brought the water level in the Kakhovka reservoir to a critical level by opening the Dneprovsky Hydroelectric Power Plant’s floodgates.”
UKRAINE DAM DESTROYED, ZELENSKY CALLS IT ‘MASS ENVIRONMENTAL DESTRUCTION’
‘CUI BONO,’ WHO BENEFITS? In its latest assessment, the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War said it lacks “clear evidence of what transpired” and therefore is “unable to offer an independent assessment of responsibility.”
But the ISW analysts noted that in October of last year, when Zelensky first accused Russia of mining the dam it has controlled for over a year, it assessed Ukraine has “no material interest in blowing the dam” that would flood more than 80 settlements.
“By contrast, Russia may use the flooding to widen the Dnipro River and complicate Ukrainian counteroffensive attempts across the already-challenging water feature,” the ISW speculated in October.
“Russian sources have expressed intense and explicit concern over the possibility that Ukraine has been preparing to cross the river and counterattack into east bank Kherson Oblast,” the ISW wrote, while noting “Available footage from June 6, corroborated by claims made by Russian milbloggers, suggests that the flooding washed away Ukrainian positions near the Dnipro shoreline and forced Ukrainian formations to evacuate while under Russian artillery fire.”
UKRAINE DAM ATTACK WILL EXACERBATE RUSSIA FALSE FLAG CONCERNS OVER ZAPORIZHZHIA NUCLEAR PLANT
WHO KNOWS? “We cannot say conclusively what happened at this point,” said NSC spokesman John Kirby at a White House briefing yesterday. “We’re doing the best we can to assess those reports and we are working with the Ukrainians to gather more information.”
“What is clear and what we absolutely can say is that the damage to the Ukrainian people and to the region will be significant. This dam, which was built in 1956 as part of the Khakovka Hydroelectric Power Plant, sits astride Ukraine’s Dnipro River. It’s about 30 yards high and about 100 yards or so wide, and the reservoir it protects holds about as much water as the Great Salt Lake in Utah. So that’s a lot of water,” Kirby said.
“We’re in touch … with Ukrainian authorities on how we can provide assistance to the many Ukrainians who have been displaced and forced to flee their homes for safety.” Kirby added that there have undoubtedly been deaths.
As for whether the massive flooding will affect Ukraine’s counteroffensive, “Right now, too soon to assess what kind of impact it’s going to have on the battlefield,” Kirby said.
In his nightly video address, Zelensky vowed the disaster “will not stop Ukraine.”
“We will still liberate all our land,” he said. “And each Russian act of terrorism increases only the amount of reparations that Russia will pay for its crimes, not the chances of the occupiers to stay on our land.”
RUSSIA AND UKRAINE PLAY DAM EXPLOSION BLAME GAME, WHITE HOUSE STILL ASSESSING
Good Wednesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Conrad Hoyt. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense.
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HAPPENING TODAY: Secretary of State Antony Blinken is in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, where he met with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.
“The two affirmed their shared commitment to advance stability, security, and prosperity across the Middle East and beyond, including through a comprehensive political agreement to achieve peace, prosperity, and security in Yemen,” the State Department said in a statement. “The Secretary also emphasized that our bilateral relationship is strengthened by progress on human rights.”
It’s Blinken’s second visit to Saudi Arabia as secretary of state and comes as a number of contentious issues have kept the two allies at odds. Just days ago, Saudi Arabia, a top crude exporter, announced plans to cut production again to drive up oil prices, despite pleas from President Joe Biden to help keep gas prices down.
“There was a good degree of convergence on potential initiatives where we share the same interests, while also recognising where we have differences,” said a U.S. official, according to Reuters.
SHOWDOWN ON DEFENSE: Before Senate Republicans agreed to go along with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s (R-CA) debt ceiling deal, they extracted a promise from Majority Leader Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) that the spending cap on the defense budget of 3% would be subject to adjustment in a supplemental appropriations bill later this year.
But in an interview with Punchbowl News, McCarthy dimmed hopes for the planned end run around the strict spending limits signed into law last weekend by Biden.
“I’m not going to pre-judge what some of them [in the Senate] do, but if they think they’re writing a supplemental because they want to go around an agreement we just made, it’s not going anywhere,” McCarthy said.
MCCARTHY NOT ON BOARD FOR DEFENSE SUPPLEMENTAL CHAMPIONED BY SENATE GOP
ROGERS: ‘IT’S ALL ABOUT CHINA FOR ME’: The House Armed Services Committee was scheduled to work on the annual defense policy bill last month, but the uncertainty about the debt ceiling forced a postponement until this month.
Subcommittee sessions are now scheduled for next week, with the final markup of the National Defense Authorization Act set for June 21.
“It is premature to be talking about a supplemental right now, but we will need a supplemental later this year — for China specifically,” Committee Chairman Mike Rogers (R-AL) said at a news conference yesterday, hinting he will seek authorization to spend above the Biden defense budget that was codified by the debt deal.
After the NDAA is completed, Rogers said, it will be “time for us to look and see if we actually address China. If we did, fine. If we didn’t, we’ll go ahead and drop more funding. It’s all about China for me.”
UKRAINE MONEY DRIVES WEDGE BETWEEN HOUSE AND SENATE REPUBLICANS
WICKER: REDEFINING ‘EQUITY’: Sen. Roger Wicker (R-MS) has introduced a bill that he says is aimed at forcing the Pentagon to abandon divisive social policies such as critical race theory that he argues are a distraction from readiness.
Wicker, the top Republican on the Senate Armed Services Committee, says the proposed legislation would prohibit the prioritization of “demographic characteristics of service members above individual merit and demonstrated performance.”
The Military Merit, Fairness, and Equality Act of 2023 suggests a “merit-based definition of equity” as “the right of all persons to have the opportunity to participate in, and benefit from, programs, and activities for which they are qualified.”
“The toxic, so-called ‘equity’ agenda at the Department of Defense damages readiness and falsely suggests that our military has a problem with diversity,” Wicker said. “My legislation would stop this overreaching social policy at its source and protect the values of merit and equal opportunity that have made our military the most powerful in the world by stopping this overreaching social policy at its source.”
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The Rundown
Washington Examiner: Ukraine money drives wedge between House and Senate Republicans
Washington Examiner: McCarthy not on board for defense supplemental championed by Senate GOP
Washington Examiner: US had prior intelligence of Ukrainian plan to attack Nord Stream pipelines: Report
Washington Examiner: Ukraine dam destroyed, Zelensky calls it ‘mass environmental destruction’
Washington Examiner: Russia and Ukraine play dam explosion blame game, White House still assessing
Washington Examiner: Ukraine dam attack will exacerbate Russia false flag concerns over Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant
Washington Examiner: GOP senators urge DOD investigation into leaks aimed at helping Biden
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Washington Examiner: Opinion: Greed, not just politics, is corrupting the image of the military
NBC News: Drone attack in Moscow may have targeted homes of Russian intelligence officials, U.S. officials say
New York Times: Destroyed Dam Thrusts Ukraine Into New Crisis
Defense News: House Armed Services Chair Wants China Spending Bill, Less Ukraine Aid
Reuters: Blinken Looks To Travel To China For Talks In Coming Weeks -US Official
The Hill: China’s Belligerence In Taiwan Strait Poses New Challenge To U.S.
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Calendar
WEDNESDAY | JUNE 7
8:45 a.m. 137 National Plaza, Oxon Hill, Maryland — Defense Strategies Institute two-day Smallsat and Space Access Summit, with Derek Tournear, director, Space Development Agency; Lt. Gen. Phillip Garrant, deputy chief of space operations, strategy, plans, programs, and requirements; Maj. Gen. John Olson, mobilization assistant to the chief of space operations; and Col. Edward Ferguson, deputy director, space and missile defense https://smallsat.dsigroup.org
9 a.m. — Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies virtual discussion: “Building capability and capacity under budget constraints, and the critical importance of America’s Airmen in great power competition,” with Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr., chief of staff of the Air Force https://mitchellaerospacepower.org/event
9:30 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW — Center for Strategic and International Studies and Vrije University’s Center for Security, Diplomacy, and Strategy Transatlantic Dialogue on the Indo-Pacific, with Kurt Campbell, National Security Council coordinator for Indo-Pacific Affairs; Gunnar Wiegand, managing director for Asia and the Pacific at the European External Action Service; Shihoko Goto, deputy director of the Wilson Center’s Asia Program; Yuki Tatsumi, director of the Stimson Center’s Japan Program; and Jeffrey Hornung, senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation https://www.csis.org/events/csds-csis-transatlantic-dialogue
10 a.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW — Brookings Institution discussion: “The Stakes at Sea: America’s Commercial, Scientific, and Naval Roles in a Changing Global Landscape,” with Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Michael Gilday; Margaret Leinen, director of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography; and Peter Levesque, president of CMA CGM America and American President Lines https://www.brookings.edu/events/the-stakes-at-sea
12 p.m. — New America virtual book discussion: The Return of the Taliban: Afghanistan After the Americans Left, with author Hassan Abbas, professor of international relations at National Defense University https://www.newamerica.org/international-security/events
1 p.m. — Cato Institute virtual forum “Domestic Terrorism Versus Constitutional Speech,” with Mike German, fellow at New York University’s Center for Justice; Robert Pape, director of the University of Chicago’s Project on Security and Threats; Thomas Berry, research fellow at Cato; and Patrick Eddington, senior fellow at Cato https://www.cato.org/events/domestic-terrorism-versus-constitutional-speech
2:30 p.m. 419 Dirksen — Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing: “Aligning Transatlantic Approaches on China,” with testimony from Noah Barkin, senior adviser, Rhodium Group and senior visiting fellow, Indo-Pacific Program, German Marshall Fund of the U.S.; Janka Oertel, Asia Program director, senior policy fellow, European Council on Foreign Relations; and Andrew Small, senior transatlantic fellow, Indo-Pacific Program, German Marshall Fund of the U.S. https://www.foreign.senate.gov/hearings
3:30 p.m. 2301 Constitution Ave. NW — U.S. Institute of Peace discussion: “The Impact of the War in Ukraine on Russian Civil Society: A View Inside and Outside Russia,” with Yevgenia Albats, journalist in residence at New York University’s Jordan Center for the Advanced Study of Russia; Joshua Tucker, director of New York University’s Jordan Center for the Advanced Study of Russia; and Angela Stent, senior adviser at the USIP Russia and Europe Center https://www.usip.org/events/impact-war-ukraine-russian-civil-society
4:30 p.m. — Advanced Nuclear Weapons Alliance Deterrence Center virtual forum: “Strategic Nuclear Deterrent Modernization,” with Rob Wittman (R-VA), vice chairman, House Armed Services Committee https://www.eventbrite.com/e/us-congressman-rob-wittman
THURSDAY | JUNE 8
7 a.m. 7920 Jones Branch Dr., McLean, Virginia — Potomac Officers Club 2023 Cyber Summit, with David McKeown, principal deputy defense CIO https://potomacofficersclub.com/events/poc-2023-cyber-summit/
8:30 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW — Center for Strategic and International Studies discussion: “Why Taiwan Matters,” with Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-AK); and Victor Cha, CSIS Korea chairman https://www.csis.org/events/why-taiwan-matters
8:45 a.m. 137 National Plaza, Oxon Hill, Md. — Defense Strategies Institute Smallsat and Space Access Summit, with Lt. Gen. Philip Garrant, U.S. Space Force deputy chief of space operations, strategy, plans, programs, and requirements https://smallsat.dsigroup.org/
9 a.m. 1401 Pennsylvania Ave. SE — PunchBowl News discussion: “National security and foreign relations,” with Senate Appropriations Committee ranking member Susan Collins (R-ME); Jill Albertelli, president for military engines at Pratt & Whitney; Andrew Desiderio, senior congressional reporter at Punchbowl News; Anna Palmer, founder and CEO of Punchbowl News https://events.punchbowl.news/pop-up_collins
9:30 a.m — Center for a New American Security virtual conference: “American Power and Purpose,” with Ely Ratner, assistant secretary of defense for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs; and Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA) https://conference.cnas.org/
7 p.m. — Institute for the Study of War virtual briefing: “The critical next phase of the war between Russia and Ukraine,” with Jennifer Cafarella, ISW director of strategic initiatives; and Mason Clark, ISW Russia team lead https://events.zoom.us
FRIDAY | JUNE 9
6 p.m. 2500 Calvert St. NW — Intelligence and National Security Alliance 38th William Oliver Baker Award Dinner “to posthumously honor Marine Corps Lt. Gen. Vincent Stewart, former deputy commander of the U.S. Cyber Command and former director of the Defense Intelligence Agency,” with Marine Corps Lt. Gen. Dimitri Henry, director for intelligence, the Joint Staff; and Letitia Long, chairwoman of the INSA Board of Directors https://www.insaonline.org/detail-pages/event
QUOTE OF THE DAY “The grift from this family is breathtaking. Jared Kushner and Ivanka Kushner walk out of the White House and months later get $2 billion from the Saudis. $2 billion from the Saudis. You think it’s because he’s some kind of investing genius? Or do you think it’s because he was sitting next to the President of the United States for four years doing favors for the Saudis?” Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie at a campaign stop in New Hampshire after announcing his 2024 bid for president Tuesday.