Destruction of Russian-controlled dam multiplies the misery of hundreds of thousands in southern Ukraine
Jamie McIntyre
AN ACT OF TERRORISM: Last October, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned that Russia was plotting a “false flag” operation to blow up the country’s largest hydroelectric dam, which would flood a large area of southern Ukraine, including Kherson, and cause a humanitarian and ecological disaster of epic proportions.
“We have information that Russian terrorists mined the dam and aggregates of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant,” Zelensky said in an address to a meeting of the European Council. “The dam of this hydroelectric power plant holds about 18 million cubic meters of water. If Russian terrorists blow up this dam, more than 80 settlements, including Kherson, will be in the zone of rapid flooding. Hundreds, hundreds of thousands of people may be affected. The water supply of a large part of the south of Ukraine may be destroyed.”
Today, as videos circulated showing an explosion taking out a large section of the dam, Zelensky accused Russia of carrying out the plot in a desperate act of terrorism.
“The destruction of the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant dam only confirms for the whole world that they must be expelled from every corner of Ukrainian land. Not a single meter should be left to them, because they use every meter for terror,” Zelensky tweeted, along with a video of water cascading over the broken dam. “It’s only Ukraine’s victory that will return security. And this victory will come. The terrorists will not be able to stop Ukraine with water, missiles or anything else.”
UKRAINE DAM DESTROYED: DOZENS OF NEARBY TOWNS EXPECTED TO BE FLOODED
‘SHHHHHH’: UKRAINE’S D-DAY ARRIVES: The dam disaster comes as Ukraine’s long-promised counteroffensive began on several fronts under the cloak of an official information blackout.
“Shhhhhh,” was the only message tweeted by the Ukrainian Defense Ministry as reports surfaced of Ukrainian forces advancing in eastern Donetsk province. Those reports included an unverified claim by Russia that Ukraine had suffered “significant losses: more than 250 servicemen, 16 tanks, 24 AFVs, including three Bradley FVs.” One report from the Russian Defense Ministry claimed 1,500 Ukrainian troops have been killed.
Other reports suggested Ukraine had retaken parts of Bakhmut, which Russia had claimed complete control of just a week ago.
But as Ukrainian forces began to test Russian defenses at various spots along the 600 miles of frontline fortifications, the flooding and resulting civilian evacuations will vastly complicate efforts to cross the Dnipro River in the south.
“This will affect the offensive & Ukraine in a big way,” tweeted retired Lt. Gen. Mark Hertling, former commander of the U.S. Army Europe. “Flooding will affect both [Russian] defensive belt & potential [Ukraine Armed Forces] river crossing, supply lines and upcoming offensive in Kherson.”
“Flooding will also limit or stop water supply to Crimea Canal (and drinking water for millions of people), may affect cooling rods at the [Zaporizhzhia] nuclear plant and the already damaged Antonivsky Bridge,” he said.
BELGIUM INVESTIGATING IF UKRAINE MILITARY AID WAS USED AGAINST RUSSIA TERRITORY
NUCLEAR PLANT IMPERILED: The reservoir that is now draining supplies water for cooling the fuel rods at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant.
In a statement, the International Atomic Energy Agency said there is “no immediate risk to the safety of the plant,” but water in the plant’s reservoir is dropping.
“Water in the reservoir was at around 16.4 meters at 8 am. If drops below 12.7 meters then it can no longer be pumped,” the IAEA said. “Absence of cooling water in the essential cooling water systems for an extended period of time would cause fuel melt and inoperability of the emergency diesel generators.”
“The main line of cooling water is fed from the reservoir and pumped up through channels near the thermal power plant to the site. It is estimated that the water through this route should last for a few days,” the statement said.
“The risk is not immediate but could grow worse over the next few weeks,” tweeted Joe Cirincione, an arms control advocate and nuclear weapons expert.
“The Zaporizhzhia plant is a ticking nuclear time bomb. Through accident, attack, or sabotage it could become the worst nuclear catastrophe since Chernobyl,” Cirincione wrote before the dam was destroyed.
“The risk is not of a nuclear explosion like Hiroshima or Nagasaki. The danger comes from the thousands of fuel rods at the plant that could melt down, releasing hydrogen gas that then explodes, spewing radioactive particles in plumes that could travel hundreds or even thousands of miles,” he warned.
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HAPPENING TODAY: Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Mark Milley are in France this morning for ceremonies commemorating the 79th anniversary of D-Day at the Normandy American Cemetery in Colleville-sur-Mer. Their remarks at 5 a.m. Washington time will be replayed by the Pentagon at 9:30 a.m.
AUSTIN, ‘THERE WILL BE STOPS AND STARTS’: Both Austin and Milley spoke to reporters ahead of today’s D-Day ceremonies about Ukraine’s prospects as it embarks on its own D-Day.
“I try to remind people all the time that this is war. And so anybody that thinks they can accurately produce any type of outcome in a war, you know, I just have another thing coming to them because it just doesn’t happen that way,” Austin told reporters traveling with him to Singapore this week. “There will be stops and starts. There will be things that happen that, you know, Ukrainians didn’t anticipate. There will be opportunities for the Ukrainians to exploit.”
“I think we’re all sensing that Ukrainian leadership’s increasingly confident in the capability that they have and opportunities that they may have,” Austin said. “Does that mean that we’re going to expel every Russian out of every corner of Ukraine? Probably doesn’t. But I think it may have the opportunity to begin to change the dynamics on the battlefield and that’s really what you’re working for.”
“I think the Ukrainians are very well prepared,” Milley said in an interview with CNN. “As you know very well, the United States and other allied countries in Europe, and really around the world, have provided training and ammunition and advice, intelligence, etcetera to the Ukrainians in supporting them. They’re in a war — it’s an existential threat for the very survival of Ukraine and has greater meaning to the rest of the world, for Europe, really for the United States but also for the globe.”
GEN. MARK MILLEY SAYS CANCELING DRAG SHOW ON MILITARY BASE ‘ABSOLUTE RIGHT THING TO DO’
ISW: ‘DAYS, WEEK, EVEN MONTHS’ BEFORE SUCCESS IS CLEAR: “Russian and Ukrainian officials are signaling the start of the Ukrainian counteroffensive,” the Institute for the Study of War said in its daily update, while cautioning that it “offers no assessment of these signals at this time.”
“ISW has observed increased combat activity in different sectors of the frontline and assesses that Ukrainian forces are making territorial gains despite Russian claims to the contrary,” the ISW said on its Twitter feed. “@TheStudyofWar has indeed observed an increase in combat activity in different sectors of the frontline but will not speculate about or forecast the intent, weighting, or focus of Ukrainian counter-offensive operations.”
“ISW will assess the outcome of Ukrainian counter-offensive operations when it can do so without compromising Ukrainian operational security, in accordance with ISW policy. A successful counteroffensive operation may take days, weeks, or even months before its outcome becomes fully clear, during which time Russian sources may falsely claim to have defeated it.”
UKRAINE BEGINS RECONNAISSANCE-IN-FORCE OPERATIONS AGAINST RUSSIAN DEFENSES
PRIGOZHIN MOCKS RUSSIAN MOD: Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the Wagner Group mercenary group, continues to goad the Russian Defense Ministry, which he now accuses of attacking his forces.
“Prigozhin has claimed that the army has employed deliberate, lethal force against Wagner units. Following an altercation, Wagner has likely detained a Russian army brigade commander,” noted the British Defense Ministry in its latest Twitter update.
In a video, Lt. Col. Roman Venevitin, commander of Russia’s 72nd Brigade, appears to confess to attacking Wagner forces while under the influence of alcohol, for what he calls reasons of “personal animosity.”
“The feud between Wagner Group and the Russian MoD has reached an unprecedented level,” according to British intelligence.
In a separate audio message, Prigozhin mocks a Russian claim that 1,500 Ukrainians were killed in battle. “To destroy one and a half thousand people, it must be such a massacre, within one day, over 150 kilometers [90 miles], one hell of a massacre,” Prigozhin said “Therefore, I think that these are just some wild fantasies.”
HALEY, THE PRO-UKRAINE CANDIDATE: In her town hall appearance Sunday night on CNN, presidential hopeful Nikki Haley, former South Carolina governor and U.S. U.N. ambassador, staked out her position as all-in on Ukraine’s side in the Russia-Ukraine war.
“It’s in the best interests of our national security for Ukraine to win. We have to see this through. We have to finish it,” Haley said. “What we have to understand is a win for Ukraine is a win for all of us, because tyrants tell us exactly what they’re going to do.”
“This is about preventing war. And so the way you prevent war is not that we give cash to Ukraine, not that we put troops on the ground, but that we get with our allies and we make sure that we give them the equipment and the ammunition to win,” she continued. “Because when Ukraine wins, that sends a message to China with Taiwan. It sends a message to Iran that wants to build a bomb, sends a message to North Korea testing ballistic missiles. And it sends a message to Russia that it’s over. That’s what we have to do.”
RAMASWAMY: TIME TO ‘MAKE MAJOR CONCESSIONS TO RUSSIA’: On the other end of the spectrum is Vivek Ramaswamy, a wealthy biotech entrepreneur, who is polling just below Haley at about 3.5%.
On ABC Sunday, Ramaswamy stood by his pledge not to spend “another dime” funding the war in Ukraine.
“I do not think it is a top foreign policy priority for us. I don’t think it is preferable for Russia to be able to invade a sovereign country that is its neighbor. But I think the job of the U.S. president is to look after American interests,” Ramaswamy told ABC’s Martha Raddatz. “What I think we need to do is end the Ukraine war on peaceful terms that, yes, do make some major concessions to Russia, including freezing those current lines of control in a Korean War-style armistice agreement.”
Ramaswamy said the bigger threat to U.S. national security is the growing alliance between Russian and China. “I think that by fighting further in Russia, by further arming Ukraine, we are driving Russia into China’s hands … And what I’ve said is, I would end this war in return for pulling Putin out of that treaty with China.”
CHINA INTERCEPTS US MILITARY VESSELS AND AIRCRAFT ‘MORE FREQUENTLY THAN WE’D LIKE’
FROM THE AGITPROP BUREAU? Were the so-called “love letters” from North Korean leader Kim Jong Un that Donald Trump valued so much he took them with him to Mar-a-Lago really from Kim? Or were they the work of low-level functionaries designed to exploit Trump’s perceived susceptibility to insincere flattery?
Trump’s former national security adviser John Bolton, now one of the former president’s sharpest critics, said he believes the 16 letters from Kim between April 2018 and August 2019 were essentially fakes.
“There is no doubt in my mind these letters were written by some communist party hack in the agitprop bureau of the North Korean Workers Party,” Bold said on CNN Sunday. “They were filled with phrases like ‘your excellency’ and things like that.”
In a letter dated April 1, 2018, before the two leaders met for their historic first summit in Singapore, Kim gushed, “I am ready to work with your excellency with all my heart and devotion.”
“Trump just thought there were love letters,” said Bolton. “I shook my head. There wasn’t much more I could do. I just don’t think he understands what he’s up against when he faces the hard men of contemporary international affairs. Kim Jong Un, Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping, he just doesn’t know what room he’s in.”
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The Rundown
Washington Examiner: Ukraine dam destroyed: Dozens of nearby towns expected to be flooded
Washington Examiner: Ukraine begins reconnaissance-in-force operations against Russian defenses
Washington Examiner: Belgium investigating if Ukraine military aid was used against Russia territory
Washington Examiner: US sanctions Russians over plot to destabilize Moldovan government
Washington Examiner: China intercepts US military vessels and aircraft ‘more frequently than we’d like’
Washington Examiner: Blinken blinks: Secretary of state avoids contempt by meeting Afghan dissent cable demands
Washington Examiner: Virginia plane crash: White House says six F-16 military jets rushed to scene caused a sonic boom
Washington Examiner: Gen. Mark Milley says canceling drag show on military base ‘absolute right thing to do’
Washington Examiner: Opinion: For Biden, Trump, and DeSantis campaigns, taxpayer-funded security will save millions of dollars
Washington Post: Ukraine Makes Eastern Advances
New York Times: War Crossing Border No Longer Worries Administration
CNN: McCarthy Sets Up Clash Over Pentagon Budget And Calls Senate GOP Demands ‘Part Of The Problem’
Stars and Stripes: Work Remains For NATO In Baltic Despite Adaptations To Russian Threat, U.S. Admiral Says
USNI News: More Changes Coming To The Marine Corps As Planners Refine Force Design 2030
Defense One: Marines Will Restructure Infantry Battalions By Septemb
ABC: Amid Military Aggression, China Ramps Up Diplomacy With U.S.
AP: No Breakthrough in NATO-Turkey Talks About Sweden Joining
19fortyfive.com: The Shocking Economic Damage to Ukraine From Russia’s Invasion
The Cipher Brief: Ukraine’s Counteroffensive Offers Golden Opportunity to Overcome Its History
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Air Force Bumps Annual Retention Bonus for Aviators Up To $50K
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Pentagon Awards $2 Billion Contract for New Lot of F-35 Engines
Defense One: Overheating F-35s May Get Service-Specific Cooling Upgrades, Likely Hiking Cost
DefenseScoop: Marines to Develop Air-Launched Loitering Munitions with Swarm Capability for Indo-Pacific Operations
Defense One: Northrop Seeks Cash for B-21, L3Harris Signs Partnership with AWS; Raytheon Might Sell Flight Control Business
Space News: L3Harris to Develop Missile-Warning Sensor for Medium Orbit Constellation
Air & Space Forces Magazine: In First, B-1 Bombers Join Largest Nordic Air Exercise
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Why No Bomb Is a Dud When Air Force EOD Is Around
19fortyfive.com: New Ukraine Footage Shows Drone ‘Dodging’ Russian Missile
19fortyfive.com: Could a NATO vs. Russia War Start in the Baltic Sea?
19fortyfive.com: Greece Could Soon Have the F-35 Stealth Fighter
The Cipher Brief: How Safe Would We Be Without Section 702?
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists: One way attack: How loitering munitions are shaping conflicts
Forbes: Opinion: As Army Chief McConville Prepares To Depart, His Service Is In Its Best Shape In Decades
Calendar
TUESDAY | JUNE 6
8 a.m. — Center for a New American Security virtual conference: “American Power and Purpose,” with NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg; U.S. Ambassador to NATO Julianne Smith; and Bonnie Jenkins, undersecretary of state for arms control and international security affairs https://conference.cnas.org/
1 p.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. NW — Hudson Institute discussion: “American Foreign Policy and World Affairs,” with Kurt Campbell, White House National Security Council coordinator for the Indo-Pacific https://www.hudson.org/events/dialogues-american-foreign-policy
1:30 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW — Center for Strategic and International Studies discussion on “Australia’s expanding role in the Indo-Pacific,” with Australian Ambassador to the U.S. Kevin Rudd; and Anthony Pratt, chairman of Visy and Pratt Industries https://www.csis.org/events/conversation-ambassador-kevin-rudd
3 p.m. — Brookings Institution event: “Securing global mobility: A conversation with Gen. Jacqueline Van Ovost, 14th commander of the US Transportation Command,” with Michael O’Hanlon, senior fellow and director, Strobe Talbott Center for Security, Strategy, and Technology, Brookings; and Air Force Col. Jason Wolff, federal executive fellow, Strobe Talbott Center for Security, Strategy, and Technology, Brookings https://connect.brookings.edu/register-to-watch-securing-global-mobility
WEDNESDAY | JUNE 7
8:45 a.m. 137 National Plaza, Oxon Hill, Maryland — Defense Strategies Institute two-day Smallsat and Space Access Summit, with Derek Tournear, director, Space Development Agency; Lt. Gen. Phillip Garrant, deputy chief of space operations, strategy, plans, programs, and requirements; Maj. Gen. John Olson, mobilization assistant to the chief of space operations; and Col. Edward Ferguson, deputy director, space and missile defense https://smallsat.dsigroup.org
9 a.m. — Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies virtual discussion: “Building capability and capacity under budget constraints, and the critical importance of America’s Airmen in great power competition,” with Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr., chief of staff of the Air Force https://mitchellaerospacepower.org/event
9:30 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW — Center for Strategic and International Studies and Vrije University’s Center for Security, Diplomacy, and Strategy Transatlantic Dialogue on the Indo-Pacific, with Kurt Campbell, National Security Council coordinator for Indo-Pacific Affairs; Gunnar Wiegand, managing director for Asia and the Pacific at the European External Action Service; Shihoko Goto, deputy director of the Wilson Center’s Asia Program; Yuki Tatsumi, director of the Stimson Center’s Japan Program; and Jeffrey Hornung, senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation https://www.csis.org/events/csds-csis-transatlantic-dialogue
10 a.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW — Brookings Institution discussion: “The Stakes at Sea: America’s Commercial, Scientific, and Naval Roles in a Changing Global Landscape,” with Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Michael Gilday; Margaret Leinen, director of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography; and Peter Levesque, president of CMA CGM America and American President Lines https://www.brookings.edu/events/the-stakes-at-sea
12 p.m. — New America virtual book discussion: The Return of the Taliban: Afghanistan After the Americans Left, with author Hassan Abbas, professor of international relations at National Defense University https://www.newamerica.org/international-security/events
1 p.m. — Cato Institute virtual forum “Domestic Terrorism Versus Constitutional Speech,” with Mike German, fellow at New York University’s Center for Justice; Robert Pape, director of the University of Chicago’s Project on Security and Threats; Thomas Berry, research fellow at Cato; and Patrick Eddington, senior fellow at Cato https://www.cato.org/events/domestic-terrorism-versus-constitutional-speech
2:30 p.m. 419 Dirksen — Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing: “Aligning Transatlantic Approaches on China,” with testimony from Noah Barkin, senior adviser, Rhodium Group and senior visiting fellow, Indo-Pacific Program, German Marshall Fund of the U.S.; Janka Oertel, Asia Program director, senior policy fellow, European Council on Foreign Relations; and Andrew Small, senior transatlantic fellow, Indo-Pacific Program, German Marshall Fund of the U.S. https://www.foreign.senate.gov/hearings
3:30 p.m. 2301 Constitution Ave. NW — U.S. Institute of Peace discussion: “The Impact of the War in Ukraine on Russian Civil Society: A View Inside and Outside Russia,” with Yevgenia Albats, journalist in residence at New York University’s Jordan Center for the Advanced Study of Russia; Joshua Tucker, director of New York University’s Jordan Center for the Advanced Study of Russia; and Angela Stent, senior adviser at the USIP Russia and Europe Center https://www.usip.org/events/impact-war-ukraine-russian-civil-society
4:30 p.m. — Advanced Nuclear Weapons Alliance Deterrence Center virtual forum: “Strategic Nuclear Deterrent Modernization,” with Rob Wittman (R-VA), vice chairman, House Armed Services Committee https://www.eventbrite.com/e/us-congressman-rob-wittman
THURSDAY | JUNE 8
7 a.m. 7920 Jones Branch Dr., McLean, Virginia — Potomac Officers Club 2023 Cyber Summit, with David McKeown, principal deputy defense CIO https://potomacofficersclub.com/events/poc-2023-cyber-summit/
8:30 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW — Center for Strategic and International Studies discussion: “Why Taiwan Matters,” with Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-AK); and Victor Cha, CSIS Korea chairman https://www.csis.org/events/why-taiwan-matters
8:45 a.m. 137 National Plaza, Oxon Hill, Md. — Defense Strategies Institute Smallsat and Space Access Summit, with Lt. Gen. Philip Garrant, U.S. Space Force deputy chief of space operations, strategy, plans, programs, and requirements https://smallsat.dsigroup.org/
9 a.m. 1401 Pennsylvania Ave. SE — PunchBowl News discussion: “National security and foreign relations,” with Senate Appropriations Committee ranking member Susan Collins (R-ME); Jill Albertelli, president for military engines at Pratt & Whitney; Andrew Desiderio, senior congressional reporter at Punchbowl News; Anna Palmer, founder and CEO of Punchbowl News https://events.punchbowl.news/pop-up_collins
9:30 a.m — Center for a New American Security virtual conference: “American Power and Purpose,” with Ely Ratner, assistant secretary of defense for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs; and Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA) https://conference.cnas.org/
7 p.m. — Institute for the Study of War virtual briefing: “The critical next phase of the war between Russia and Ukraine,” with Jennifer Cafarella, ISW director of strategic initiatives; and Mason Clark, ISW Russia team lead https://events.zoom.us
FRIDAY | JUNE 9
6 p.m. 2500 Calvert St. NW — Intelligence and National Security Alliance 38th William Oliver Baker Award Dinner “to posthumously honor Marine Corps Lt. Gen. Vincent Stewart, former deputy commander of the U.S. Cyber Command and former director of the Defense Intelligence Agency,” with Marine Corps Lt. Gen. Dimitri Henry, director for intelligence, the Joint Staff; and Letitia Long, chairwoman of the INSA Board of Directors https://www.insaonline.org/detail-pages/event
QUOTE OF THE DAY “I think the accusations of woke are grossly overexaggerated. Every soldier, sailor, airman and Marine are out there focused on the mission, and the mission is to defend the United States, its people, our interests, and the Constitution of the United States.” Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, in an interview with CNN.