Prigozhin begins withdrawal from Bakhmut after admitting loss of 20,000 troops and warning Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has backfired
Jamie McIntyre
PRIGOZHIN’S PYRRHIC VICTORY: Less than a week after claiming to have taken Bakhmut, Russian mercenary boss Yevgeny Prigozhin has begun pulling his private army out of the eastern Ukrainian city, while delivering a blistering parting political shot at the Kremlin.
In an interview Tuesday, Prigozhin said Russian President Vladimir Putin’s stated goal of “denazification” and “demilitarization” of Ukraine has backfired. “Nothing is working out for us,” he told Konstantin Dolgov, a former Russian lawmaker and pro-Kremlin blogger. “The denazification we were talking about has turned Ukraine into a nation that is known to everyone all over the world … We legitimized Ukraine.”
“How did we demilitarize it?” Prigozhin lamented. “It turns out to be just the opposite … They had 20,000 men trained to fight, now they have 400,000 … I think today the Ukrainians are one of the strongest armies. They have high levels of organization and preparedness, high level of intelligence; they have all kinds of weapons … F**k knows how, but we’ve militarized Ukraine.”
“Our boots have trampled over the entire territory … We’ve reached Kyiv, but then, I say it in plain Russian, we crapped our pants and retreated.”
20,000 DIED TAKING BAKHMUT: In the more than hourlong interview, Prigozhin acknowledged Russian troops have killed civilians and confirmed Western estimates that more than 20,000 of his men died in the meatgrinder of Bakhmut, about half of whom were convicts recruited from Russian prisons.
And he warned there could be a popular uprising in Russia aimed at the wealthy elite who seem disconnected from the war. “I recommend for the elites of the Russian Federation to gather up your offspring and send them to war, and when you go to their funerals, then people will say, ‘Now everything is fair,’” he said.
Prigozhin predicted that if elites don’t start sending their children to war, all the “regular” folks “will take up their pitchforks.”
“We are in a situation where we can simply lose Russia,” Prigozhin warned. “We must introduce martial law. We, unfortunately … must announce new waves of mobilization; we must put everyone who is capable to work on increasing the production of ammunition … Russia needs to live like North Korea for a few years, so to say, close the borders … and work hard.”
KIRBY: ‘TRACKS … ALMOST PRECISELY’: Prigozhin’s casualty figures match what U.S. intelligence has estimated: 100,000 troops lost with 20,000 killed in action, the rest wounded.
“I mean, that estimate largely tracks with what we briefed you not long ago, almost precisely,” said NSC spokesman John Kirby when asked about Prigozhin’s comments. “I guess the main … takeaway is that this offensive in Bakhmut has just come at a terribly high cost to Russia, and as I said, it’s been a bit of a meatgrinder for them.”
As for why Prigozhin feels so free to criticize the Russian Defense Ministry directly, and Putin by implication, Kirby said he could only guess.
“I wouldn’t begin to pretend to get inside Mr. Prigozhin’s head,” Kirby said during a teleconference for reporters. “That said … this could be a sort of morbid way of him … claiming credit for whatever they’ve been able to achieve and what they’ve achieved in Bakhmut, but also trying to publicly, you know, embarrass the Ministry of Defense further.”
“Since almost the beginning of the fighting in Bakhmut, he has publicly upbraided their Defense Ministry and accused them of not supporting him. He has made entreaties for more ammunition and for manpower and castigated the Russian Ministry of Defense for not taking the fight seriously.”
For nine months, Ukraine pursued a controversial strategy of going all out to defend the tactically insignificant city of Bakhmut in an attempt to exhaust and deplete Russian forces while buying time to train troops and stockpile weapons and ammunition for the upcoming counteroffensive.
US BELIEVES UKRAINIANS MAY BE RESPONSIBLE FOR DRONE ATTACK ON KREMLIN: REPORT
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HAPPENING TODAY: The Pentagon says Ukraine has what it needs for its planned counteroffensive, so today’s 12th meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group will be focused on the future needs of the Ukrainian armed forces.
“We’ve known since dang near the beginning of this war that when this war ends, however that ends, whenever that ends, that Ukraine’s going to have long-term security needs,” Kirby told reporters yesterday. “In fact, that’s part of the reasons why the president agreed to F-16 training for Ukrainian pilots and the potential provision of F-16s and advanced fighter aircrafts, in the future, is because we know it’s a long term defense need for Ukraine.”
“F-16s for Ukraine is about the long-term commitment to Ukraine,” said Pentagon spokesman Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder on Tuesday. “These F-16s will not be relevant to the upcoming counteroffensive.
Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin will open the virtual meeting of more than 50 donor countries with remarks at 8 a.m., and at 12:30 p.m., Austin and Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Mark Milley will hold a joint news conference at the Pentagon.
PENTAGON LEADERS TO HOST UKRAINE CONTACT GROUP MEETING FOLLOWING F-16 ANNOUNCEMENT
KIRBY: ‘WE’VE BEEN PRETTY DARN CLEAR’: While the self-declared Russian Volunteer Corps and the Freedom of Russia Legion are crowing that they were able to get in and out of the border province of Belgorod without any significant casualties, the U.S. is taking a hard look at whether Ukraine provided any U.S. military vehicles to support the incursion into Russian territory.
“We’ve been pretty darn clear we don’t support the use of U.S.-made equipment used for attacks inside Russia,” said Kirby. “We’ve been clear about that with the Ukrainians. I won’t get into private discussions that we’re having with them, but I think we’ve been nothing but consistent about our concerns in that regard.”
Photo and videos posted on social media appeared to show the pro-Ukrainian Russian fighters driving American-made Humvees, MRAPs, and trucks.
DeSANTIS ON UKRAINE: ‘I’D LIKE TO SEE A SETTLEMENT’: After his formal announcement on Twitter last night that he’s entering the 2024 race for the White House, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) stopped by Fox News for an interview with Trey Gowdy, a former Republican congressman from South Carolina.
Asked how he would address the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine, DeSantis quickly pivoted to his preferred talking point about the alleged “wokeness” of the U.S. military.
“Well, first, I think what we need to do, as a veteran, is recognize that our military has become politicized,” he told Gowdy. “You talk about gender ideology. You talk about things like global warming, that they’re somehow concerned. And that’s not the military that I served in.”
“There will be a new sheriff in town as commander in chief, and I think you will see recruiting start to get back to where it needs to be, because people don’t want to join a woke military,” he continued. “We need to return our military to focusing on commitment, focusing on the core values and the core mission. That would be something that I could take care of on day one.”
As for Ukraine, DeSantis made no commitment to continuing to back Kyiv with weapons and avoided taking sides. “In terms of what’s going on over in Eastern Europe, I’d like to see a settlement of this. I do not want to see a wider war. I think it’s completely unknowable what it will look like in January of 2025, but I would not want to see the United States with our troops get enmeshed in a war in Russia or in Ukraine.”
President Joe Biden has said from the beginning of the war he would not send U.S. troops to fight in Ukraine.
RON DeSANTIS ANNOUNCES 2024 PRESIDENTIAL BID
BIDEN PICKS BROWN FOR JCS CHAIRMAN: It’s been rumored for weeks, but the official confirmation that Biden would tap the Air Force chief of staff to be his senior military adviser came in a routine note the White House schedule released to reporters last night.
“In the afternoon, the President will announce his intent to nominate Gen. Charles Q. Brown, Jr. to serve as the next Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.”
The 1:45 p.m. Rose Garden announcement will be attended by Defense Secretary Auston along with Vice President Kamala Harris.
Brown, an F-16 fighter pilot, was the first black officer to head a military service, and, if confirmed, would be the second black chairman after Colin Powell, who served as the nation’s highest-ranking military officer from 1989 to 1993.
Brown would replace Army Gen. Mark Milley, whose term ends in October.
He earned his Air Force pilot callsign “Swamp Thing” in 1991 when he was forced to eject from his F-16 when it caught fire in the Florida Everglades, and he landed in a swamp, according to the Associated Press.
BIDEN TO NOMINATE AIR FORCE CHIEF TO BE NEXT JOINT CHIEFS CHAIRMAN
The Rundown
Washington Examiner: Biden to nominate Air Force chief to be next Joint Chiefs chairman
Washington Examiner: US believes Ukrainians may be responsible for drone attack on Kremlin: Report
Washington Examiner: Pentagon leaders to host Ukraine Contact Group meeting following F-16 announcement
Washington Examiner: Xi and Russian prime minister discuss ‘fending off the collective West’
Washington Examiner: Navy launches new task force in Middle East to train allies
Washington Examiner: Make or break: This week into next is critical window for debt ceiling negotiations
Washington Examiner: House progressives won’t commit to supporting ‘bad’ debt ceiling bill
Washington Examiner: All 213 Democrats sign discharge petition in bid to bypass GOP on debt limit
Washington Examiner: Department of Homeland Security warns of heightened threat of terror attack from politically motivated lone offenders
Washington Examiner: In bad sign for Russian arms export industry, major air show canceled
AP: Head of Russian private army Wagner says more than 20,000 of his troops died in Bakhmut battle
AP: An Iranian nuclear facility is so deep underground that US airstrikes likely couldn’t reach it
AP: South Korea, US troops to hold massive live-fire drills near border with North Korea
Inside Defense: McCaul: Weapons Marked for Taiwan Will Not Be Delivered Until 2025
USNI News: ‘Logistics, Logistics, Logistics’ is Now Marines’ Top Focus, Says CMC Berger
Breaking Defense: Berger: ‘Time To Look’ At Changing Combatant Command Structure
New York Times: China-Tied Malware Hits Systems In Guam. Is Taiwan The Real Target?
Air Force Times: GAO Blasts T-7 Delays, Cites ‘Tenuous’ Air Force-Boeing Relationship
Air & Space Forces Magazine: SpOC’s Whiting: Space Force Eyes Fielding Its Own ISR Satellites
Space News: Missile-Warning Satellite Passes Preliminary Design Review
DefenseScoop: Milley’s Team Readying Analysis for Establishing New ‘Joint Futures’ Organization for DOD
Defense One: F-35 Program Completes Band-Aid Fix for Engine
Breaking Defense; Cause of V-22 ‘Hard Clutch’ Issue Still Unknown, Even as Fleet Repairs Moving Ahead of Schedule
Air & Space Forces Magazine: How a Rusty B-52 Carcass Is Key to the Bomber’s Big Upgrades
Air & Space Forces Magazine: How Can Ukraine Use the F-16? Retired USAF Generals and F-16 Pilots Explain.
Military.com: Academy Cadets with Kids Could Still Be Kicked Out as Pentagon Lags on Rule Change
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Opinion: It’s Time to Stop Thinking Putin Owns the Sky
19fortyfive.com: Blame Putin: 20,000 Wagner Soldiers Died In Ukraine Battle for Bakhmut
19fortyfive.com: Putin Is Sweating: Does F-16s for Ukraine Mean a New Offensive Against Russia?
19fortyfive.com: Russia’s New T-14 Armata Tank Is Fighting in Ukraine
The Cipher Brief: China’s Diplomatic Dance Comes Amid Plans for War
The Cipher Brief: The US May Not Be Looking for a Fight with China, But It’s Preparing for One
The Cipher Brief: Managing Expectations for the Ukrainian Counteroffensive
Calendar
THURSDAY | MAY 25
12:30 p.m. — Washington Institute for Near East Policy virtual policy forum: “Turkey’s Presidential Runoff: What to Expect May 28 and After,” with Humeyra Pamuk, senior foreign policy correspondent for Reuters; Emre Peker, director for Europe, Eurasia Group consultancy; and Elcin Poyrazlar, political columnist for Cumhuriyet, Turkey’s oldest newspaper https://washingtoninstitute-org.zoom.us/webinar/register
2 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW — Center for Strategic and International Studies discussion: on “The U.S. Role in Indo-Pacific Security,” with Ely Ratner, assistant defense secretary for Indo-Pacific security affairs; and Siddharth Mohandas, deputy assistant defense secretary for East Asia https://www.csis.org/events/us-role-indo-pacific-security
3 p.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW — Brookings Institution discussion: “What does the future hold for Taiwan?” with Bonnie Glaser, managing director of the German Marshall Fund of the U.S.’ Indo-Pacific Program; Shelley Rigger, professor of political science at Davidson College; and Kharis Templeman, manager of Stanford University’s Project on Taiwan in the Indo-Pacific Region https://www.brookings.edu/events
6 p.m. 901 K St. NW — Women’s Foreign Policy Group discussion: “International Principles of Responsible Artificial Intelligence (AI),” with Jennifer Bachus, principal deputy assistant secretary of state for cyberspace and digital policy; Natasha Crampton, chief responsible AI officer at Microsoft; Michelle Giuda, director of the Krach Institute for Tech Diplomacy at Purdue; Lloyd Whitman, senior director of the Atlantic Council’s GeoTech Center; and Cat Zakrzewski, technology policy reporter at the Washington Post https://wfpg.memberclicks.net
FRIDAY | MAY 26
8:30 a.m. — Brookings Institution virtual discussion: “India’s Role in the International Order,” with Garima Mohan, senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the U.S.’ Indo-Pacific Program; C. Raja Mohan, senior fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute of New Delhi; Tanvi Madan, director of the Brookings India Project; and Bruce Jones, director of the Brookings Project on International Order and Strategy https://www.brookings.edu/events/indias-role
10 a.m. Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium, Annapolis, Md. — Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin delivers graduation address at the U.S. Naval Academy 2023 commencement ceremony https://www.defense.gov/News/Live-Events
WEDNESDAY | JUNE 7
4:30 p.m. — Advanced Nuclear Weapons Alliance Deterrence Center virtual forum: “Strategic Nuclear Deterrent Modernization,” with Rob Wittman (R-VA), vice chairman, House Armed Services Committee https://www.eventbrite.com/e/us-congressman-rob-wittman
QUOTE OF THE DAY “We would not send weapons to the Ukrainians when they were begging for them. We wouldn’t even give them intelligence because we didn’t want to quote ‘provoke Vladimir Putin.’ By showing weakness we provoked Vladimir Putin.” Viral clip on Twitter of the late Sen. John McCain in a prophetic 2014 BBC interview, predicting Putin after invading Crimea would attempt to conquer all of Ukraine.