Pentagon: Ukraine has a ‘very strong hand’ heading into counteroffensive
Jamie McIntyre
‘A VERY STRONG HAND’: Amid signs the start of the much-anticipated Ukrainian counteroffensive is growing near, the Pentagon said it believes the coalition of nations providing military support has given Ukraine what it needs to succeed.
“They have nine mechanized armored brigades that we’ve provided, they have significant air defense capability. The entire world has come together to ensure that they have ammunition, and importantly, we’re also providing training, and we’re working very closely with them on sustainment and logistics aspects,” said Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder at yesterday’s Pentagon briefing. “So as they prepare to conduct counter-offensive operations, they have got a very strong hand and we’re very confident that they have the combat capability that they’ll need.”
The timing of the offensive is a closely guarded secret, but aides to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky keep dropping hints that it will begin soon. “We are clearly aware of when, where, how and what should start,” said Zelensky’s national security adviser Oleksiy Danilov in an interview with CNN. “The final decision is up to the president and the security staff. When the decision is made, Russia will definitely feel it.”
In an interview with the Japanese TV channel NHK, Ukraine’s military intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov said Ukraine now has enough weapons, and the counteroffensive would begin “soon.”
PETRAEUS: ‘WE’RE IN A MOMENT OF TRANSITION’: While Ukrainian officials and many military analysts have warned against expectations of a dramatic victory against dug-in Russian troops, former top U.S. commander retired Gen. David Petraeus is optimistic that Ukraine will be able to gain significant ground over the coming months.
“I do think that the Ukrainians are going to do better than a lot of analysts assessed they will,” Petraeus said in an interview with CNN. “I personally think that this is going to be really quite successful.”
“The Russian forces have beaten up very badly. They’re no longer cohesive. They’re not coherent in terms of command and control. Russian commanders have been replaced every few months. The individual replacements that aren’t well-trained aren’t well-equipped. The units, again, are not very well disciplined. And they’re going to have to withdraw under pressure of this Ukrainian offensive, the most [difficult] tactical maneuver, and I don’t think they’re going to do well at that,” Petraeus said.
“The Ukrainian forces on the other hand, they have not been in combat for 15 straight months the way the Russians have,” he said. “These units have not sustained the losses that the Russians have. They have been in training in Germany, Eastern Poland, Ukraine, U.K., and elsewhere. And very well-equipped, disciplined, cohesive, and of course, they’re fighting for Ukraine’s war of independence.”
WHY THE WAIT? Petraeus said Ukraine is waiting to get the last of its new weapons in place and for conditions that will facilitate the movement of heavy armor.
“There are still some western tanks and other systems that they’d like to get into their units before they launch this,” he told CNN. “You [also] have to wait for the ground to get dry and firm, and the ground is still quite damp and moist, and therefore tanks, track vehicles would get mired if they go offroad, and they have to go offroad.”
“The Ukrainians will have to get off of those roads, crack through, break through, the Russian fortifications, get them on the run … try to create disarray in these units that are now quite battered, beaten up, and not particularly coherent. And then, I think, they can achieve their ultimate offensive of separating the ability of the Russians to resupply Crimea along the southeastern coast of Ukraine by driving all the way to the sea there.”
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HAPPENING TODAY: NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg takes part in the Brussels Forum, an annual conference organized by the German Marshall Fund of the U.S. His conversation with Helene Cooper, New York Times Pentagon correspondent, will be livestreamed at 8:45 a.m. at https://www.nato.int.
As he was headed into a meeting of European Union defense ministers yesterday, Stoltenberg said it’s critical for NATO countries supporting Ukraine to ramp up production of ammunition and spare parts.
“It is always, of course, important to discuss new platforms, planes, battle tanks, air defense systems,” he said. “But as important – or perhaps even more important – is to ensure that all the systems which are already in Ukraine work and function as they should. And to do so, they need ammunition, they need fuel, spare parts, maintenance, and air capacity. So the sustainment, which also includes ammunition, is absolutely critical.”
Stoltenberg also welcomed the announcement that the U.S. would not block the transfer of F-16s to Ukraine and would facilitate pilot training. “This is an important step that partly will enable us to then deliver fighter jets at some stage, but also is sending a very clear signal that we are there for the long term, and that Russia cannot wait us out.”
PROVIDING F-16S TO UKRAINE WON’T BE A ‘SILVER BULLET’
F-16 TRAINING TO BE CONDUCTED IN EUROPE: In an interview with CNN, NSC spokesman John Kirby said the U.S. has not yet decided if it will be among the countries providing F-16s to Ukraine.
“We’re still working our way through that,” Kirby said. “The president did announce that we’re going to start to provide training for Ukrainian pilots that will likely occur in Europe, not far from Ukraine, just like we’ve done so many other training events for Ukrainian soldiers.”
“But as for how many jets, what type, coming from what country, all that needs to be worked out,” he said. “We’re going to be working with a coalition of other nations, nations that have these advanced fighter aircraft, including F-16s, to work out all the details.”
UKRAINIAN PILOTS HAVE BEGUN F-16 TRAINING, BORRELL SAYS
ALSO TODAY: The House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party meets at 9:30 a.m. to adopt two reports, one on recommendations arising from the committee’s Taiwan war game and associated events on deterrence in the Taiwan Strait, and another report on recommendations related to the Uyghur genocide, the focus of the committee’s second hearing.
Following the business meeting, Committee Chairman Mike Gallagher (R-WI) will hold a brief media availability. See the calendar item below.
McCAUL: ‘THE DISSENTERS WERE RIGHT’: House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Michael McCaul (R-TX) finally got to read the dissent channel cable on the 2021 Afghanistan withdrawal he has been demanding from the State Department, but his battle with Secretary of State Antony Blinken is not over.
“I am thankful to Secretary Blinken for allowing myself and ranking member [Gregory] Meeks to view the dissent channel cable – an unprecedented occurrence,” McCaul said in a statement. “However, every member on our committee should be granted this same access. Although I cannot discuss the classified information in the cable, I can say the dissenters were right – and the administration should have listened.”
“I am going to speak with ranking member Meeks and my Republican and Democrat colleagues on the committee to discuss our next course of action if the State Department continues to block all committee members from seeing this cable as the subpoena requested.”
GOP DEMANDS BLINKEN CONTEMPT OF CONGRESS VOTE AFTER AFGHAN CABLE DEAL FALLS SHORT
WERE THOSE US VEHICLES IN BELGOROD? The Russian Defense Ministry claims it has repelled the cross-border incursion by anti-Putin forces into Belgorod and “liquidated” 70 of the self-described Russian Volunteer Corps and the Freedom of Russia Legion soldiers.
The soldiers, who say they are Russians operating independently of the Ukrainian government, claim they suffered no casualties. Photos of abandoned vehicles, including what appeared to be U.S. Humvees, raised questions about whether the fighters had been provided with U.S. equipment by Ukraine.
“So we’ve seen those reports, something that we obviously continue to monitor very closely,” said Ryder at the Pentagon. “I will say that we can confirm that the U.S. government has not approved any third party transfers of equipment to paramilitary organizations outside the Ukrainian Armed Forces, nor has the Ukrainian government requested any such transfers.”
STATE DEPARTMENT ‘SKEPTICAL’ MILITIAS USED US WEAPONS IN RUSSIA RAID
THE BATTLE OF BAKHMUT: Ukraine continues to dispute claims by Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of the Wagner mercenary group, that the eastern city of Bakhmut is now totally under the control of his forces. Ukraine claims to be occupying a small corner of the city and to have forces in the surrounding suburbs.
At the Pentagon, Ryder said at this point, with most of the city leveled, Russia can hardly call the destruction a victory.
“They have committed tens of thousands of forces into this area to fight the Ukrainians and it’s taken how many months for them to gain the ground that they have?” he said. “So clearly, again, while they may hold a significant amount of territory in that area, the question is to what end, to what strategic gain? And again, we would assess, not much at this point.”
As for whether it was worth the heavy casualties Ukraine suffered defending the ground for ten months, Ryder said that was up to Ukraine to judge. “It’s their sovereign territory and only they can decide how much and where to commit.”
The Rundown
Washington Examiner: Providing F-16s to Ukraine won’t be a ‘silver bullet’
Washington Examiner: Ukrainian pilots have begun F-16 training, Borrell says
Washington Examiner: State Department ‘skeptical’ militias used US weapons in Russia raid
Washington Examiner: Hungary’s Orban says Europe should not align with US ‘in relation to China’
Washington Examiner: Russian court extends detention of American journalist
Washington Examiner: GOP demands Blinken contempt of Congress vote after Afghan cable deal falls short
Washington Examiner: Biden nominates Timothy Haugh to lead NSA and Cyber Command
Washington Examiner: White House hesitant to agree to McCarthy’s deadline for debt ceiling deal
Washington Examiner: McCarthy still believes deal on debt ceiling can be ironed out by June 1
Washington Examiner: Trump classified documents: Jack Smith ‘wrapping up’ Mar-a-Lago investigation
Washington Examiner: Opinion: US-Papua New Guinea deal strengthens China deterrence
Washington Examiner: Opinion: Marines, air-ground exercises, and the challenge of UFO reporting
Washington Examiner: Opinion: Communication is key, but dreams of a US-China detente are fiction
Washington Post: Russia’s Hold On Bakhmut Could Prove Short-Lived
AP: EU welcomes F-16 jet decision for training Ukraine pilots
Defense One: Arms Flow 30 Percent Faster to Ukraine as US Relearns Cold-War Skills
Bloomberg: Taiwan Won’t Get US F-16s Until 2024 Thanks to Problems Beyond Covid
Bloomberg: Pentagon Can’t Account for Thousands of F-35 Parts, GAO Says
Wall Street Journal: U.S. and China See Fragile Opportunity to Repair Ties
Defense News: Poland Looks to Buy Early-Warning Aircraft from Sweden
Breaking Defense: Short of ‘Dream’ Interoperability, Rival European Fighter Programs Share Some Tech
Inside Defense: Gilday: AI Needs ‘More Governance’ For Assuming Risks, Applying Capabilities
AP: US aircraft carrier arrives in NATO-member Norway
Navy Times: Military Sends Away Ships As Super Typhoon Mawar Closes In On Guam
Air & Space Forces Magazine: B-1s Deploy to Europe for NATO Deterrence, Immediately Met by Russian Fighter
Air & Space Forces Magazine: USAF General to Lead NSA and CYBERCOM: First Time Ever
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Kendall: Digital Engineering Was ‘Over-Hyped,’ But Can Save 20 Percent on Time and Cost
Air & Space Forces Magazine: GAO Faults DOD for Lax Oversight of F-35 Spare Parts
Space News: Air Force Research Lab to Fund Development of Ursa Major’s Rocket Engines
19fortyfive.com: Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life
19fortyfive.com: Hypersonic Missiles: How China Could Sink a Navy Aircraft Carrier in a War
19fortyfive.com: PAK DA: Russia’s New Stealth Bomber May Never Fly
19fortyfive.com: T-14: Can the ‘Armata’ Tank Win the Ukraine War For Putin?
19fortyfive.com: The Ukraine War Might Prove the Russian Military Is a Paper Tiger
Baltimore Sun: 102-Year-Old Maryland Veteran Awarded Silver Star For World War II Service In The Pacific
Calendar
WEDNESDAY | MAY 24
9 a.m — Mara Karlin, assistant secretary of defense for strategy, plans, and capabilities delivers keynote address to the MEI-CENTCOM Annual Conference https://mei.edu/events/third-mei-centcom-annual-conference
9:30 a.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party business meeting, followed by a 10 a.m. media availability with Chairman Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-WI). The committee plans to release two reports: recommendations based on a Taiwan war game and recommendations related to the Uyghur genocide https://selectcommitteeontheccp.house.gov
CANCELED: 9:30 a.m. — Hudson Institute event: “U.S. Leadership in Tech Diplomacy: A Conversation with Ambassador Nathaniel Fick,” with Nathaniel Fick, U.S. ambassador at large for cyberspace and digital policy; and Patrick Cronin, Asia-Pacific security chairman, Hudson https://www.hudson.org/events/us-leadership-tech-diplomacy
10 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW — Wilson Center Asia Program discussion: “The Belt and Road’s Impact on Partner States,” with Nara Sritharan, postdoctoral fellow at AidData; Matt Ferchen, senior fellow at the Leiden Asia Center; Matthew Erie, associate professor at the University of Oxford; and Jonathan Solis, senior research analyst at AidData https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/belt-and-roads-impact-partner-states
10 a.m. — Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies Schriever Spacepower Series discussion with Lt. Gen. Stephen Whiting, commander, Space Operations Command https://mitchellaerospacepower.org/event
11:30 a.m. 1700 Army Navy Dr., Arlington, Virginia — Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association discussion: “Space Force: Reimagining Space Security,” with Col. Richard Niseley, chief of the Space Systems Command Space Systems Integration Office’s Enterprise Requirements and Architectures Division https://afceadc.swoogo.com/space23/
12 p.m. — Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress in-person book event: Russia’s War & The Russian People’s Understanding of the War In Ukraine, with author Jade McGlynn, research fellow, War Studies Department, King’s College, London. RSVP: [email protected]
12 p.m. — Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft virtual discussion: “The Search for a Ceasefire in Ukraine,” with Thomas Graham, fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations; Miriam Pemberton, associate fellow at the Institute for Policy Studies; Jeffrey Sachs, director of Columbia University’s Center for Sustainable Development; George Beebe, director of grand strategy at the Quincy Institute; and Anatol Lieven, director of the Quincy Institute’s Eurasia Program https://quincyinst.org/event/the-search-for-a-ceasefire-in-ukraine/
2 p.m. HVC-210, U.S. Capitol — House Foreign Affairs Committee hearing: “Modernizing U.S. Arms Exports and a Stronger AUKUS,” with testimony from Assistant Secretary of State for Political-Military Affairs Jessica Lewis; and Assistant Defense Secretary for Strategies, Plans and Capabilities Mara Karlin https://foreignaffairs.house.gov/hearing
2 p.m. — Government Executive Media Group virtual discussion: “Navigating Naval Security in the Digital Age,” with Brian Patrick Laird, assistant commander for supply chain technology in the Naval Supply Systems Command; Navy Deputy Director of Enterprise Networks and Cybersecurity Scott St. Pierre; Travis Howerton, chief technology officer at RegScale; and Enrique Oti, chief technology officer at Second Front Systems https://events.govexec.com/fcw-agency-spotlight-navigating-naval-security
THURSDAY | MAY 25
12:30 p.m. — Washington Institute for Near East Policy virtual policy forum: “Turkey’s Presidential Runoff: What to Expect May 28 and After,” with Humeyra Pamuk, senior foreign policy correspondent for Reuters; Emre Peker, director for Europe, Eurasia Group consultancy; and Elcin Poyrazlar, political columnist for Cumhuriyet, Turkey’s oldest newspaper https://washingtoninstitute-org.zoom.us/webinar/register
2 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW — Center for Strategic and International Studies discussion: on “The U.S. Role in Indo-Pacific Security,” with Ely Ratner, assistant defense secretary for Indo-Pacific security affairs; and Siddharth Mohandas, deputy assistant defense secretary for East Asia https://www.csis.org/events/us-role-indo-pacific-security
3 p.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW — Brookings Institution discussion: “What does the future hold for Taiwan?” with Bonnie Glaser, managing director of the German Marshall Fund of the U.S.’ Indo-Pacific Program; Shelley Rigger, professor of political science at Davidson College; and Kharis Templeman, manager of Stanford University’s Project on Taiwan in the Indo-Pacific Region https://www.brookings.edu/events
6 p.m. 901 K St. NW — Women’s Foreign Policy Group discussion: “International Principles of Responsible Artificial Intelligence (AI),” with Jennifer Bachus, principal deputy assistant secretary of state for cyberspace and digital policy; Natasha Crampton, chief responsible AI officer at Microsoft; Michelle Giuda, director of the Krach Institute for Tech Diplomacy at Purdue; Lloyd Whitman, senior director of the Atlantic Council’s GeoTech Center; and Cat Zakrzewski, technology policy reporter at the Washington Post https://wfpg.memberclicks.net
FRIDAY | MAY 26
8:30 a.m. — Brookings Institution virtual discussion: “India’s Role in the International Order,” with Garima Mohan, senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the U.S.’ Indo-Pacific Program; C. Raja Mohan, senior fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute of New Delhi; Tanvi Madan, director of the Brookings India Project; and Bruce Jones, director of the Brookings Project on International Order and Strategy https://www.brookings.edu/events/indias-role
10 a.m. Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium, Annapolis, Md. — Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin delivers graduation address at the U.S. Naval Academy 2023 commencement ceremony https://www.defense.gov/News/Live-Events
QUOTE OF THE DAY “I do think that the Ukrainians are going to do better than a lot of analysts assessed they will. And that’s hugely important because of the overall importance of keeping western support for Ukraine, and ultimately convincing Putin that he is not going to be able to out-suffer the Ukrainians, the Americans, and the Europeans.” Retired Gen. David Petraeus on the Ukrainian counteroffensive expected to begin soon.