After months of refusal, flat ‘no’ turns to qualified ‘yes’ on F-16s to Ukraine
Jamie McIntyre
NO TURNS TO YES ON F-16s: After insisting for months that Kyiv didn’t need them, President Joe Biden caved to the relentless pressure campaign from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to facilitate the transfer of U.S.-made F-16s to the Ukrainian air force in the coming months.
Zelensky, who had already rallied NATO allies Great Britain, the Netherlands, and Belgium to his cause, flew to Japan, where leaders of the G-7 nations were meeting for a face-to-face meeting with Biden to close the deal.
At a press conference in Hiroshima, Biden said the F-16s would not arrive in time for the expected counteroffensive, assuming it actually begins this summer, but that they would help Ukraine defend itself “down the road.” And the U.S. agreement to train pilots and allow other countries to give their Lockheed Martin F-16s to Ukraine came with a big condition.
“I have a flat assurance from Zelensky that they will not use it to go on and move into Russian geographic territory,” Biden said. “But wherever Russian troops are within Ukraine in the area, they would be able to do that.”
That leaves it unclear whether Ukraine can use the F-16s to try to shoot down Russian planes that fire stand-off missiles against targets in Ukraine from the safety of Russian airspace, one of the primary reasons Ukraine wants the more modern fighter jets.
US TO SUPPORT INTERNATIONAL F-16 TRAINING EFFORTS FOR UKRAINIANS
Biden continues to argue that F-16s would be of limited use in the kind of fighting that is going on now, such as the monthslong siege of Bakhmut that has inflicted heavy casualties on both sides.
“He is focused on the type of systems needed for the phase of the fight that is at hand,” said national security adviser Jake Sullivan on CNN. “The critical systems for the counteroffensive are not planes. They’re tanks and artillery systems and HIMARS and huge amounts of ammunition. And the United States has mobilized an exceptional effort to deliver on time and in full everything Ukraine needs to launch this counteroffensive.”
Sullivan said the U.S. wants to spend the funds Congress has appropriated for Ukraine this year on immediate needs, not refurbishing F-16s, so while it will help with training, it will look to other allies to provide the planes.
“What the president has said is that he will sit with his European allies and with Ukrainians to work out who, when, and how many jets get transferred. And we’re in the process of doing that right now,” Sullivan said. “I think, given the numbers that are currently available from the stocks of our European allies and the fact that … there’s so many other priorities for systems to give Ukraine, it may be that we focus more on third-party transfer, but the president hasn’t made a final decision.”
ZELENSKY: THIS IS THE FIRST STEP’: A Congressional Research Service report from March outlined many of the challenges of integrating fourth-generation aircraft into Ukraine’s air force, not just the training of pilots but also mechanics, as well as the need for spare parts and repair facilities.
“It can take several years to train a new fighter pilot in the U.S. military, but as little as several months to retrain an experienced pilot on a new aircraft,” the report said, while warning that maintenance could be a bigger challenge. “The Ukrainian Air Force has only flown former Soviet fighter jets, which have different engineering standards and system components than advanced Western aircraft.”
“This is the first step,” Zelensky told reporters in Japan. “Next, we have a certain number of months to train our pilots. We will work to ensure that these are the most experienced people at once to shorten the training process.”
And once Ukraine gets F-16s, it’s going to need the weapons that go with them. “It is likely that the Ukrainian Air Force would attempt to obtain significant numbers of advanced western-manufactured munitions,” the CRS report said, which concluded “the advantages of transferring advanced western fighter jets in seeking air superiority are likely to be realized only if paired with large quantities of western manufactured munitions.”
Radar-seeking HARM missiles and Advanced Medium Range Air-to-Air Missiles (AMRAAMs) are both expensive and in limited supply.
ZELENSKY LINKS RUSSIAN INVASION TO IRAQ AND AFGHANISTAN WARS IN APPEAL TO ARAB WORLD
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HAPPENING TODAY: BIDEN MEETS McCARTHY: President Joe Biden is back from Japan and is set to meet this afternoon with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) as intransigence and partisan sniping have undercut negotiations aimed at avoiding a default on the national debt that could send shockwaves through global financial markets.
The putative deadline is less than two weeks away, June 1, when the government is estimated to run out of money to cover expenses already authorized by Congress.
Biden and McCarthy spoke by phone as the president flew back from the G-7 summit in Japan. Negotiations are said to center primarily on the cap on future spending.
BIDEN SAYS HE ‘CAN’T GUARANTEE’ REPUBLICANS WON’T ‘FORCE A DEFAULT’
THE BATTLE FOR BAKHMUT: After almost a year of fierce fighting in which ground changed hands in meters, not miles, the battle for Bakhmut seems to be coming to a close, with both sides claiming a psychological victory.
In a video posted over the weekend, Yevgeny Prigozhin, leader of the Wagner Group, claimed complete control of the flattened city and then immediately announced his mercenaries would leave on Wednesday.
Ukraine claims to still control a small corner of Bakhmut and said its fighters have withdrawn to positions to outflank the Russians who are at the city’s center, but speaking alongside Biden in Japan, Zelensky said the monthslong battle has basically wiped the city of 70,000 people off the map.
The Russians have destroyed “everything,” he said. “You have to understand that there is nothing … For today, Bakhmut is only in our hearts. There is nothing in this place.”
“Ukrainian military sources reported that Russian forces lost part of the dominant heights around Bakhmut and noted that sustained Ukrainian advances could lead to a tactical encirclement of Wagner forces in Bakhmut,” said the Institute for the Study of War in its latest assessment.
The dogged defense of Bakhmut stopped the Russian advance and exhausted Wagner fighters but resulted in heavy casualties on both sides.
“The truth of the matter is the Russians have suffered over 100,000 casualties in Bakhmut. That’s hard to make up. That’s hard to make up,” said Biden in Japan. “There’s not many buildings left standing in Bakhmut. It’s a pretty devastated city. But they have been able to move in a direction that they’ve been able to lock down an awful lot of the Russian forces, including the Wagner Group.”
RUSSIA’S NEXT MOVE: In an apparent effort to improve its chances against a Ukrainian counteroffensive, Russia is “highly likely creating a new ‘elite’ attack aviation group code-named ‘Shtorm’ to operate over Ukraine,” British Intelligence reported.
“The unit is likely to consist of at least one squadron of Su-24 FENCER and Su-34 FULLBACK fighter-bombers, and a squadron of attack helicopters,” the British Defense Ministry tweeted today. “The mix of aircraft types suggests the group will have a primary role of ground attack missions.”
“The creation of the group highlights how Russia assesses its regular air force squadrons have severely underperformed in their core function of conducting airstrikes on Ukrainian lines,” the assessment said. “Credible Russian media reports suggest that the Russian MoD aims to attract highly skilled and motivated pilots by offering large pay incentives and opening recruitment to retired aviators.”
ROGERS SEEKS RECORDS ON SPACECOM DECISION: The Alabama congressional delegation is getting increasingly impatient with the Pentagon over its long delay in making a final decision about the location of the new headquarters of the U.S. Space Command.
Mike Rogers (R-AL), chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, has fired off a letter to Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall requesting that all documents relating to the selection process be preserved in the wake of allegations that the Biden administration’s concerns about Alabama’s strict abortion restrictions may be behind the delay.
“Air Force officials have continued to delay finalizing the move of SPACECOM Headquarters to Redstone Arsenal in Huntsville, Alabama, in response to apparent politically motivated interference by political appointees in the Biden administration,” Rogers wrote. “The move is severely delayed at this point, over two years beyond the point when Air Force made the right decision after scrutinizing multiple locations and considering multiple factors to locate SPACECOM Headquarters in Huntsville, and over a year since the GAO and the DOD Inspector General affirmed Air Force’s decision. Moving expeditiously to locate SPACECOM Headquarters at Redstone Arsenal is in our country’s best national security interests.”
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The Rundown
Washington Examiner: Zelensky links Russian invasion to Iraq and Afghanistan wars in appeal to Arab world
Washington Examiner: US to support international F-16 training efforts for Ukrainians
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Washington Examiner: Investigation into USS George Washington suicides finds poor living conditions
Washington Examiner: Central Command ‘investigating’ if recent Syrian strike actually killed al Qaeda leader
Washington Examiner: Biden says he ‘can’t guarantee’ Republicans won’t ‘force a default’
Washington Examiner: Biden says ‘MAGA Republicans’ could use default to sink his reelection
AP: Ukraine’s Zelenskyy at center of last day of high-level diplomacy as G7 looks to punish Russia
AP: ‘Exhaust them’: Why Ukraine has fought Russia for every inch of Bakhmut, despite high cost
Wall Street Journal: Seeking A Bigger Bang, U.S. Invests In Advanced Explosives
AP: US to sign new security pact with Papua New Guinea amid competition with China
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Space News: HASC Chairman Questions ‘Continued Delays’ in Settling Dispute over Space Command’s Location
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CNN: How GOP Attacks On ‘Wokeism’ Helped Lead The Pentagon To Abandon Its Effort To Combat Extremism In The Military
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Calendar
MONDAY | MAY 22
8 a.m. Arundel House, 6 Temple Place, London, U.K. — International Institute for Strategic Studies discussion: “Mitigating the risks of an unconstrained Iranian nuclear program,” with Hasan Alhasan, research fellow for Middle East policy at IISS; Emile Hokayem, senior fellow for Middle East security at IISS; Amnah Ibraheem, research analyst at the IISS Middle East office; and William Alberque, director of the IISS Strategy, Technology, and Arms Control Program https://iiss.zoom.us/webinar/register
10:30 a.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: “The U.S. and Poland: A New Agenda for a Transatlantic Future,” as part of “Warsaw Week,” May 22-26 https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/2023-warsaw-week
3:30 p.m. 1957 E St. NW — George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs book discussion: South Korea’s Survival Strategy – Nakyon Lee’s Initiative, with former Republic of Korea Prime Minister Nakyon Lee https://calendar.gwu.edu/event/book_launch
TUESDAY | MAY 23
9 a.m. — Peterson Institute for International Economics virtual discussion: “A Renewed Look at Russia’s Wartime Economy,” with Iikka Korhonen, head of the Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies; Nataliia Shapoval, chairwoman of the Kyiv School of Economics Institute; and Nicolas Veron, senior fellow at PIIE https://www.piie.com/events/renewed-look-russias-wartime-economy
12 p.m. Brussels, Belgium — German Marshall Fund of the U.S. 2023 Brussels Forum (May 23-24) discussion: “The Future of Russia – Potential Scenarios and Their Implications for International Security,” with Assistant NATO Secretary-General for Public Diplomacy Baiba Braze https://www.gmfus.org/brussels-forum-2023
12:30 p.m. — Business Council for International Understanding discussion: “France’s defense priorities, important developments in the EU and NATO on defense capabilities and the response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine,” with French Air and Space Force Maj. Gen. Bertrand Jardin, French defense attaché to the U.S. Closed to press. RSVP: [email protected]
2 p.m. Pentagon River Entrance — Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin meets with Czech Republic Defense Minister Jana Cernochova
2 p.m. HVC-210 — House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Europe hearing: “Examining the Fiscal Year 24 State and Foreign Operations Budget Request for Europe,” with testimony from Dereck Hogan, principal deputy assistant secretary, Bureau of European and Eurasian Affairs, State Department; Erin Elizabeth McKee, assistant administrator, Bureau for Europe and Eurasia, U.S. Agency for International Development; and Maria Longi, coordinator, Office of the Coordinator of U.S. Assistance to Europe and Eurasia, State Department https://foreignaffairs.house.gov/hearing
2 p.m. 310 Cannon — House Homeland Security Counterterrorism, Law Enforcement, and Intelligence Subcommittee hearing: “A Security Sprint: Assessing the U.S. Homeland’s Vulnerabilities to Chinese Communist Party Aggression,” with testimony from Iranga Kahangama, assistant Homeland Security secretary for cyber, infrastructure, risk, and resilience in the Office of Strategy, Policy, and Plans; Tyrone Durham, acting director of the Nation State Threats Center in Homeland Security’s Office of Intelligence and Analysis; and Jill Murphy, deputy assistant FBI director of counterintelligence https://www.youtube.com/channel
4 p.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW — Brookings Institution discussion: “21st Century Soldiers of the Sea,” with Marine Corps Commandant Gen. David Berger https://www.brookings.edu/events/21st-century-soldiers-of-the-sea
WEDNESDAY | MAY 24
TBA — Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-WI), media availability after a House (Select) Strategic Competition Between the U.S. and the Chinese Communist Party Committee full committee markup. RSVP to [email protected]
9 a.m — Mara Karlin, assistant secretary of defense for strategy, plans, and capabilities delivers keynote address to the MEI-CENTCOM Annual Conference https://mei.edu/events/third-mei-centcom-annual-conference
9:30 a.m. — Hudson Institute event: “U.S. Leadership in Tech Diplomacy: A Conversation with Ambassador Nathaniel Fick,” with Nathaniel Fick, U.S. ambassador at large for cyberspace and digital policy; and Patrick Cronin, Asia-Pacific security chairman, Hudson https://www.hudson.org/events/us-leadership-tech-diplomacy
10 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW — Wilson Center Asia Program discussion: “The Belt and Road’s Impact on Partner States,” with Nara Sritharan, postdoctoral fellow at AidData; Matt Ferchen, senior fellow at the Leiden Asia Center; Matthew Erie, associate professor at the University of Oxford; and Jonathan Solis, senior research analyst at AidData https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/belt-and-roads-impact-partner-states
10 a.m. — Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies Schriever Spacepower Series discussion with Lt. Gen. Stephen Whiting, commander, Space Operations Command https://mitchellaerospacepower.org/event
11:30 a.m. 1700 Army Navy Dr., Arlington, Virginia — Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association discussion: “Space Force: Reimagining Space Security,” with Col. Richard Niseley, chief of the Space Systems Command Space Systems Integration Office’s Enterprise Requirements and Architectures Division https://afceadc.swoogo.com/space23/
12 p.m. — Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress in-person book event: Russia’s War & The Russian People’s Understanding of the War In Ukraine, with author Jade McGlynn, research fellow, War Studies Department, King’s College, London. RSVP: [email protected]
12 p.m. — Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft virtual discussion: “The Search for a Ceasefire in Ukraine,” with Thomas Graham, fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations; Miriam Pemberton, associate fellow at the Institute for Policy Studies; Jeffrey Sachs, director of Columbia University’s Center for Sustainable Development; George Beebe, director of grand strategy at the Quincy Institute; and Anatol Lieven, director of the Quincy Institute’s Eurasia Program https://quincyinst.org/event/the-search-for-a-ceasefire-in-ukraine/
2 p.m. HVC-210, U.S. Capitol — House Foreign Affairs Committee hearing: “Modernizing U.S. Arms Exports and a Stronger AUKUS,” with testimony from Assistant Secretary of State for Political-Military Affairs Jessica Lewis; and Assistant Defense Secretary for Strategies, Plans and Capabilities Mara Karlin https://foreignaffairs.house.gov/hearing
2 p.m. — Government Executive Media Group virtual discussion: “Navigating Naval Security in the Digital Age,” with Brian Patrick Laird, assistant commander for supply chain technology in the Naval Supply Systems Command; Navy Deputy Director of Enterprise Networks and Cybersecurity Scott St. Pierre; Travis Howerton, chief technology officer at RegScale; and Enrique Oti, chief technology officer at Second Front Systems https://events.govexec.com/fcw-agency-spotlight-navigating-naval-security
THURSDAY | MAY 25
2 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW — Center for Strategic and International Studies discussion: on “The U.S. Role in Indo-Pacific Security,” with Ely Ratner, assistant defense secretary for Indo-Pacific security affairs; and Siddharth Mohandas, deputy assistant defense secretary for East Asia https://www.csis.org/events/us-role-indo-pacific-security
3 p.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW — Brookings Institution discussion: “What does the future hold for Taiwan?” with Bonnie Glaser, managing director of the German Marshall Fund of the U.S.’ Indo-Pacific Program; Shelley Rigger, professor of political science at Davidson College; and Kharis Templeman, manager of Stanford University’s Project on Taiwan in the Indo-Pacific Region https://www.brookings.edu/events
6 p.m. 901 K St. NW — Women’s Foreign Policy Group discussion: “International Principles of Responsible Artificial Intelligence (AI),” with Jennifer Bachus, principal deputy assistant secretary of state for cyberspace and digital policy; Natasha Crampton, chief responsible AI officer at Microsoft; Michelle Giuda, director of the Krach Institute for Tech Diplomacy at Purdue; Lloyd Whitman, senior director of the Atlantic Council’s GeoTech Center; and Cat Zakrzewski, technology policy reporter at the Washington Post https://wfpg.memberclicks.net
FRIDAY | MAY 26
8:30 a.m. — Brookings Institution virtual discussion: “India’s Role in the International Order,” with Garima Mohan, senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the U.S.’ Indo-Pacific Program; C. Raja Mohan, senior fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute of New Delhi; Tanvi Madan, director of the Brookings India Project; and Bruce Jones, director of the Brookings Project on International Order and Strategy https://www.brookings.edu/events/indias-role
10 a.m. Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium, Annapolis, Md. — Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin delivers graduation address at the U.S. Naval Academy 2023 commencement ceremony https://www.defense.gov/News/Live-Events
QUOTE OF THE DAY “We’ve always had polarization in America, but what’s been different more recently is not just a measure of paralysis as indicated by the debt ceiling, but of all the meanness and lack of civility among our politicians. The sense that somebody who disagrees with you is not just somebody you disagree with, but is an enemy, is a bad person. This lack of civility is, I think, something new and really is pretty pervasive in the Congress.” Former Defense Secretary and CIA Director Robert Gates, now chancellor at the College of William & Mary, speaking on CBS’s Face the Nation Sunday.