A TALE OF TWO FRONTS: Among the goals of Ukraine’s surprise offensive into the Kursk region on its northeastern border was to relieve the pressure that its undermanned front-line forces were feeling from a relentless Russian advance in the Donetsk region just to the south.
To some extent the strategy has worked, with Russia forced to redeploy some troops from Ukraine back across the border to defend against the Ukrainian operation, which had advanced more than 20 miles into Russian territory, capturing hundreds of poorly trained conscripts and prompting the evacuation of thousands of civilians.
“We have seen some Russian units being redirected from operations in and around Ukraine to the Kursk area, but these are just early reports that we’re seeing,” John Kirby, White House national security communications adviser, told reporters on Thursday. “I can’t say with certainty how many or how many more may go or what their intentions would be.”
But in an appearance on CNN earlier, Kirby admitted the United States has not seen evidence that the movement of troops has had much of an effect on the eastern front in Ukraine. “It’s an active dynamic situation, and we’re still watching it. But he has diverted some resources to Kursk. It’s not exactly clear with what intent or what effect it’s actually going to have,” Kirby said. “It doesn’t mean that Mr. Putin has given up military operations in the northeast part of Ukraine or even down toward the south, toward places like Zaporizhzhia. There’s still active fighting along that front. They still have a lot of manpower and a lot of resources devoted to trying to take back territory that the Ukrainians have reclaimed in recent months in the last year or two.”
KEY RUSSIAN ALLY CALLS FOR PEACE NEGOTIATIONS IN UKRAINE: ‘END THIS SCUFFLE’
PRESSING ITS ADVANTAGE: Russian forces have Ukraine outmanned and outgunned in Donetsk and are closing in on Pokrovsk, a key logistical hub, whose capture could cut Ukrainian supply lines. While moving several brigades from the region to Ukraine, Russian commanders appear to be maintaining the bulk of their forces, hoping for a strategic breakthrough, according to the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War.
“The types of units that are redeploying, and where they are redeploying from, is a strong indicator that the Russian military command is still prioritizing ongoing offensive operations in eastern Ukraine,” the ISW said in its latest assessment. “ISW continues to assess that the Russian military command is pulling select elements of Russian irregular units from Donetsk Oblast to address the Ukrainian incursion in Kursk Oblast but will likely be extremely averse to pulling Russian military units engaged in combat from priority sectors in Donetsk Oblast out of concerns about slowing the tempo of Russian operations.”
“Russian forces are maintaining their relatively high offensive tempo in Donetsk Oblast, demonstrating that the Russian military command continues to prioritize advances in eastern Ukraine,” the ISW assessed.
A SOBERING REPORT FROM THE FRONT: “We are paying attention to every direction of our state’s defense, to all front-line directions,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said this week, specifically mentioning the Donetsk region and Pokrovsk. “We have agreed that we will send additional weapons to our warriors in the Donetsk direction from the next support packages — more than planned,” Zelensky said last night, an admission that troops there are under strain.
“We don’t have enough people to do our job properly,” the commander of the 21st Battalion of the Separate Presidential Brigade told the Wall Street Journal in a sobering report from the front lines. The commander, who goes by the call sign Kucher, said that in the spring, his battalion had roughly the same number of men as the Russians, but now they are at a 5-to-1 disadvantage.
“If we’re supposed to have five or six people in a position, we’ll have two or three,” said a 45-year-old army major, who told the Wall Street Journal team that his unit was so short-handed that cooks, mechanics, and other rear personnel were being deployed to trenches. “It’s a matter of time before the enemy finds a weak spot.”
Thanks to its numerical advantage in men and materiel, “Russian forces have gained territory at a faster rate this summer than at any point since the first weeks of the war,” the Wall Street Journal reported, quoting one commander as saying, “The Russians have more everything than us — more people, more guns, more shells, more ammunition. … In the end, it makes us withdraw.”
ZELENSKY TEAM DENIES ROLE IN NORD STREAM 2 SABOTAGE
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HAPPENING TODAY: They’re still talking in Doha, where representatives from the United States, Qatar, and Egypt began a second day of talks aimed at securing a ceasefire deal that would end the fighting in Gaza, free the remaining hostages held by Hamas, and it’s hoped avoid a wider war in the region.
“It is our view, and it continues to be the case, that the broader framework of what [President Joe Biden] laid out at the end of May has generally been accepted,” Vedant Patel, deputy State Department spokesman, said yesterday. “But of course this is a negotiation with two parties, and this is a process.
“What we are focusing on now and what the talks are focusing on is working on the details of the implementation,” Patel said. “There, of course, are still gaps when it comes to some of the details. There are gaps when it comes to execution. There are specific implementing measures that need to be agreed upon.”
IRANIAN RETALIATION AGAINST ISRAEL ‘COULD COME SOON’ WITH LITTLE NOTICE
‘A GREAT DAY FOR AMERICAN SHIPBUILDING:’ The senior Republican on the Senate Armed Services Committee is cheering the latest announcement from the Navy that would address what U.S. commanders say is a critical shortage of amphibious assault ships.
“Today is a great day for American shipbuilding and our Navy’s ability to deter China in the years ahead,” Sen. Roger Wicker (R-MS) said in response to a notification to Congress that the Navy will pursue a $11.5 billion multiship buy for four America-class and San Antonio-class amphibious warships through fiscal 2029.
The plan, Wicker said, will save taxpayers nearly $1 billion. “As I have long noted, including in my recent ‘Peace Through Strength‘ report, the multiship buy of warships is a cost-effective way to provide stability for the industrial base on key shipbuilding programs. I look forward to seeing these contracts through to their execution, and I believe that additional benefits could be obtained if we increase funding for material procurement in bulk.”
The Navy plans would buy three landing platform dock ships, or LPDs, one each in 2025, 2027, and 2029, and one landing helicopter assault ship, or LHA, essentially a small aircraft carrier, in 2027.
ARSENAL OF BUREAUCRACY: US LAGGING BEHIND CHINA IN ACQUIRING WEAPONS NEEDED FOR A FUTURE WAR
EVERYONE’S HEART’S DESIRE: The performance of Raytheon’s Patriot missile defense system in Ukraine, where it has been the most effective of the many systems provided by the West, has made it a top seller for NATO countries seeking to bolster their defenses or backfill systems they have provided to Ukraine.
The latest example: The State Department has approved a $5 billion sale to Germany of Patriot Advanced Capability-3 Missile Segment Enhancement Missiles and related equipment, according to a release from the Defense Security Cooperation Agency.
“The proposed sale will improve Germany’s capability to meet current and future threats and increase the defensive capabilities of its military. It will support Germany’s goal of improving national and territorial defense as well as interoperability with U.S. and NATO forces,” DSCA said. “The prime contractor will be Lockheed Martin, located in Dallas, Texas.”
US DROPS TECHNOLOGY EXPORT BANS FOR AUSTRALIA AND UNITED KINGDOM
THE RUNDOWN:
Washington Examiner: Iranian retaliation against Israel ‘could come soon’ with little notice
Washington Examiner: US: Israel hasn’t completely ‘eliminated the military threat Hamas poses’
Washington Examiner: Key Russian ally calls for peace negotiations in Ukraine: ‘End this scuffle’
Washington Examiner: Zelensky team denies role in Nord Stream 2 sabotage
Washington Examiner: Army to expand basic training capitalizing on recruiting bump
Washington Examiner: US drops technology export bans for Australia and United Kingdom
Washington Examiner: Eight most shocking revelations from the Nord Stream sabotage plot
Washington Examiner: Vance keeps up stolen valor pressure on Walz with veteran-filled event
Washington Examiner: DOJ defends Boeing settlement: ‘Strong and significant resolution’
Washington Examiner: Arsenal of bureaucracy: US lagging behind China in acquiring weapons needed for a future war
Washington Examiner: Opinion: Why Iran (and likely China) is for Harris and Russia and North Korea are for Trump
Washington Examiner: Opinion: Top UK judge David Neuberger betrays Hong Kong for China’s gold
Washington Post: Ukraine Expands Russia Assault
Wall Street Journal: As Ukraine Invades Russia, Kyiv’s Troops Are in Trouble on the Eastern Front
New York Times: Ukraine’s Foray Likely To Stymie Russian Advance
Politico: Biden ‘Open’ to Sending Long-Range Cruise Missiles to Ukraine
Real Clear World: Iran’s Plans for the Region Were Interrupted by the Haniyeh Killing
Military Times: All Troops From Gaza Pier Mission Expected To Be Home By October
Air & Space Forces Magazine: How the Air Force’s Moves in the Middle East Fit with Changing Deployments
Defense One: Pentagon Needs to Speed Up Its Integrated Deterrence Efforts, Joint Chiefs Chair Says
Stars and Stripes: Future Of Taiwan Is Strategically Important To America: INDOPACOM Chief
Defense News: AUKUS Countries Update Rules on Sharing Defense Kit
The War Zone: Supercarrier USS George H.W. Bush Now Has First Of Its Kind Drone Control Center
National Security Journal: Russia’s Borei A-Class Nuclear Submarine Is ‘Stacked’ with Nuclear Missiles
AP: Lawmakers Ask Pentagon Leaders to Commit to Keeping the Military Out of Politics and the Election
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Air Force Reserve Wing Borrows New F-35s as It Waits for Its Own
Task & Purpose: Military Sexual Assault Rates May Be 3-4 Times Higher Than Pentagon Says, Report Finds
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Space Forces Europe and Africa Elevated to One-Star Command, Gets New Boss
Space News: Lockheed Martin to Acquire Terran Orbital
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Weather Ops: The Air Force’s Next Great Weapon?
DefenseScoop: What Would It Mean to Elevate the Pentagon’s Network Defense Command?
National Security Journal: Opinion: What Taiwan Can Learn from Ukraine’s Kursk Offensive Against Russia
THE CALENDAR:
FRIDAY | AUGUST 16
1:15 p.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. NW — Hudson Institute a discussion: “Focusing the Force,” with Air Force chief of staff Gen. David Allvin https://www.hudson.org/events/focusing-force-conversation-general-david-allvin
2 p.m. Colorado Springs, Colorado — National Defense Industrial Association “2024 Space Warfighting Forum,” with Space Force Gen. Stephen Whiting, commander, U.S. Space Command https://www.ndia.org/events/2024/8/14/2024-space-warfighting-forum
TUESDAY | AUGUST 20
10 a.m. — Brookings Institution virtual discussion: “The Wagner Group and Russia in Africa one year after Prigozhin’s death,” with Christopher Faulkner, assistant professor, College of Distance Education, U.S. Naval War College; Mark Galeotti, executive director, Mayak Intelligence; John Lechner, independent researcher; Angela Stent, nonresident senior fellow, Brookings Center on the United States and Europe; and moderator Vanda Felbab-Brown, senior fellow and director, Initiative on Nonstate Armed Actors, co-director, Brookings Africa Security Initiative https://www.brookings.edu/events/the-wagner-group-and-russia
FRIDAY | AUGUST 23
10 a.m. 2401 M St., NW — George Washington University Project for Media and National Security Defense Writers Group “Coffee Conversation,” with Christopher Maier, assistant secretary of defense for special operations and low-intensity conflict. RSVP: [email protected]