‘KUDOS TO THE UKRAINIANS FOR PULLING THIS OFF’: Ukraine now has an estimated 10,000 troops establishing a buffer zone in the Kursk region of Russia along its northeastern border. Its audacious gamble to turn the tables on Russian President Vladimir Putin — a meticulously planned sneak attack now just nine days old — has seen Ukraine gain hundreds of square miles of Russian territory and close to a thousand prisoners that can be traded in future negotiations.
As military operations go, it’s a “very significant achievement,” says retired Gen. David Petraeus, former U.S. Central Commander and CIA director. “They managed to assemble elements of four brigades, but not just infantry and armor, but also artillery, air defense, electronic warfare and so forth. So, it’s a real combined arms effort with logistics with them.”
“And they managed to break through the not very substantial, but some double lines of defense on the border in that area into Kursk,” Petraeus said on CNN, noting it’s “the first invasion of Russia since World War II.”
“They’re gaining an enormous morale boost. They’re collecting Russian prisoners for later exchange for Ukrainian prisoners held by Russia. They have cut a very important rail line that Russia uses to send logistics and troops from, say, the Moscow region down to the southeastern part of Ukraine. And that’s quite significant and largely overlooked,” Petraeus said. “And now they continue to expand this. It’s a huge blow to Putin needless to say.”
“Kudos to the Ukrainians for pulling this off. I mean, this is incredible. Nobody saw this coming eight days ago,” retired Army Brig. Gen. Steve Anderson said on CNN. “But they’ve got to be careful. They don’t want to go too far in and outrun their supply lines and be in danger and cut off. But they’ve been able to distract the Russians. They’ve been able to give a tremendous morale boost to the Ukrainians who have now been fighting for two and a half years and they caused a major embarrassment to Vladimir Putin.”
WHITE HOUSE: ‘OUR POLICY HAS NOT CHANGED’: While Ukraine has succeeded in seizing the momentum and shifting the narrative away from what was looking like a static stalemate, there has been little cheering from the White House, which is distancing itself from the offensive and referring all questions about the Kursk offensive to Ukraine.
“We’re certainly not engaged in any aspect of the planning or preparation of this operation,” press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said at yesterday’s White House briefing. “We’re not going to speak to Ukrainian’s military operation. That’s something that they should do for themselves.”
In his nightly video address, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky once again appealed for permission to use American missiles to go after Russian targets. He noted Ukraine’s successful drone strikes against Russian air bases overnight Tuesday and Wednesday, which destroyed Russian warplanes, but said drones can only do so much.
“The bolder our partners’ decisions are, the less Putin will be able to do,” Zelensky said. “Our Ukrainian drones work exactly as they should, but there are things that cannot be done with drones alone. Unfortunately. We need other weapons, missile weapons. And we continue working with our partners on long-range decisions for Ukraine – because these are forward-looking decisions for our victory. It has to be done.”
The Biden administration has stuck to its line that it neither encourages nor enables Ukraines offensive operations into Russian territory.
“Our policy has not changed,” Jean-Pierre said. “We are obviously going to continue to talk to our Ukrainian partners … continue to have those conversations as we normally do. But I just don’t have anything beyond that.”
ZELENSKY: ‘IMPORTANT UKRAINE FIGHTS BY THE RULES’: There was another thing that Zelensky said in his nightly video message that caught the ear of retired Australian Maj. Gen. Mick Ryan. “It is important that Ukraine fights by the rules, and the humanitarian needs that exist in this area must be met.”
“This is a very important idea in war generally. But it is also crucial for #Ukraine. There are strategic, diplomatic, and moral reasons for Ukraine to ‘fight by the rules’. And it has a direct impact on Ukraine’s ongoing operation in #Kursk oblast,” Ryan said in an extended thread on X. “Ukraine has fought a defensive war within the bounds of international law. It has incorporated Just War theory into its military strategy. At the same time, Ukraine has brought to light where the Russian military and government have transgressed international law.”
“This is not just a principle in international law. It is also the expectation of citizens in democracies. They expect that their military personnel, despite the terrible things they must often do in war, reflect the values of the society they are drawn from and that they represent,” Ryan says. “Those who fight for legitimate purposes and exercise force in an ethical way are better protected from moral harm. By adopting a Just War approach as part of its military strategy, and by ‘fighting by the rules’, the Ukrainian state is also protecting the souls of the soldiers who are fighting. That matters.”
“I think the Ukrainians understand this, and to the greatest extent possible, appear to have practiced being a virtuous military during this war. It is standing them in good stead as their soldiers defend against the Russian advances in Donbas and continue their advance through western Russia.”
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Good Thursday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Christopher Tremoglie. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow me on Threads and/or on X @jamiejmcintyre.
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HAPPENING TODAY: Another day has passed without the threatened attack on Israel from Iran, or its proxies in Lebanon. The world continues to watch to see if diplomacy can prevail at the talks in Qatar aimed at securing a ceasefire deal between Hamas and Israel to end the fighting in Gaza, which, by one account, has claimed as many as 40,000 lives.
The U.S., Qatar, and Egypt are meeting with the Israelis, while Hamas’s participation is in question, as it accuses Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyau of adding new conditions to the draft agreement, which his office denied in a statement posted on his Facebook page.
“Prime Minister Netanyahu’s July 27 letter does not introduce extra conditions and certainly does not contradict or undermine the May 27 proposal. In fact, Hamas is the one that demanded 29 changes to the May 27 proposal, something the Prime Minister refused to do,” the statement says. “The July 27 letter does not introduce new terms. To the contrary, it includes essential clarifications to help implement the May 27 proposal.”
Under the three-phase plan, Hamas would release the more than 100 remaining hostages held in Gaza, and Israel would withdraw forces from Gaza and release Palestinian prisoners in return for a lasting ceasefire.
NETANYAHU HOLDING LINE AGAINST PRESSURE FROM US, IRAN, AND IDF
McCAUL: WHERE ARE THE SANCTIONS? It’s been four months since Congress passed, and President Joe Biden signed, a bipartisan national security supplemental spending package that included nearly $18 billion in military assistance for Israel, and called for increased sanctions against Iran.
House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Michael McCaul (R-TX) is accusing the Biden administration of “dragging its feet” in implementing important law provisions.
“While I’m glad the Biden-Harris administration issued formal notification for several arms sales cases to our ally Israel, it took 80 days for them to stop dragging their feet. Shockingly, that is not their only delay in providing security in the region,” McCaul said in a press release. “It is now August, and the Biden-Harris administration is still blowing past deadlines to implement various sanctions against Iran provided for in my 21st Century Peace Through Strength Act.”
“The only way to deter Iran and its proxies is through a clear display of strength and resolve. This administration’s needless, politically motivated, delays and misleading statements regarding support for Israel’s security must end,” McCaul said.
AUSTIN TICE: 12 YEARS A HOSTAGE: McCaul was also among the many voices who called for the release of American Austin Tice on the 12th anniversary of his abduction in Syria.
“Tice — a former U.S. Marine, freelance journalist, and Texan — was taken hostage by the Assad regime,” McCaul said in a statement. “While authoritarian regimes continue this disturbing trend of taking American citizens hostage, Austin has languished as Assad’s prisoner … Austin must be unconditionally released now so he can be reunited with his family.”
The White House also issued a statement from President Biden in which he vowed “to do everything possible to advocate for and pursue his release and support his loved ones until he is safely returned home.”
“We have repeatedly pressed the government of Syria to work with us so that we can, at last, bring Austin home. Today, I once again call for his immediate release,” Biden said. “The freedom of the press is essential, and journalists like Austin play a critical role informing the public and holding those in power accountable. We stand in solidarity with Austin, his family, and all Americans wrongfully detained and held hostage abroad.”
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THE RUNDOWN:
Washington Examiner: Netanyahu holding line against pressure from US, Iran, and IDF
Washington Examiner: Nord Stream 2 bombing suspect slips out of Poland’s fingers
Washington Examiner: Texas stops busing migrants to Chicago months before Democratic convention
Washington Examiner: NYC spending on Biden border crisis tops $5 billion
Washington Examiner: Murphy planning to appoint former chief of staff George Helmy to Menendez’s Senate seat
Washington Examiner: ‘J6 praying grandma’ vows to appeal six-month home confinement sentence and $100K fine
New York Times: Ukraine’s Incursion Into Russia Flips The Script On Putin
AP: Ukraine gambled on an incursion deep into Russian territory. The bold move changed the battlefield
Politico: Ukraine Hammers Russian Airbases as Kyiv’s Incursion Triggers Panic
Breaking Defense: Iraq Boosts Helicopter Fleet Ahead of Pending US Troops Withdrawal
CNN: Iran’s Mixed Signals Leave Some Allies In The Dark And Set Region On Edge
Defense One: Did China Just Demote Its Defense Ministry?
Reuters: China Urges U.S., U.K. And Australia Not To Advance Nuclear Submarine Cooperation
Reuters: U.S. Navy’s Newest Air-To-Air Missile Could Tilt Balance In South China Sea
USNI News: Chinese Aircraft Carrier Shandong Back In South China Sea
Washington Post: Japanese Prime Minister Kishida, Who Braced U.S. Alliance, Will Step Down
AP: Indian soldiers drill for counterinsurgency amid rise in rebel attacks in Kashmir
Washington Post: Biden says administration has ‘repeatedly pressed’ for Austin Tice’s release
SpaceNews: Northrop Grumman Continues to Trim Space Workforce in California
Breaking Defense: White House Advisory Group Blasts US Government, DOD Inattention to GPS Woes
DefenseScoop: Second Replicator Tranche to Include Anduril’s Autonomous Underwater Drones
Defense One: Two Programs Suggest the Pentagon Is Getting Better at Buying Technology
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Future Airmen and Guardians Will Now Carry Practice Rifles Throughout Boot Camp
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Sun, Spades, and Forklifts: ‘Port Dawgs’ Run the Show at Bamboo Eagle
The Cipher Brief: Three Years After Taliban Return, Terrorists Find Safe Haven in Afghanistan
The Cipher Brief: Russia’s Invasion of Georgia Should Have Been a Wake-Up Call
The Cipher Brief: After a Russian War in 2008, the World Missed a Warning: Ukraine Would Be Next
THE CALENDAR:
THURSDAY | AUGUST 15
8 a.m. 7920 Jones Branch Dr., McLean, Virginia — Potomac Officers Club 2024 Navy Summit, with Nickolas Guertin, assistant Navy secretary for research, development and acquisition; and Franklin Parker, assistant Navy secretary for manpower and reserve affairs https://potomacofficersclub.com/events/poc-2024-annual-navy-summit
9 a.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: “Ukraine’s Advance in Kursk: What’s Next and Implications,” with former Ukrainian Defense Minister Andriy Zagorodnyuk, chairman of the Center for Defense Strategies; and Konstantin von Eggert, Deutsche Welle Russian Service columnist https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/ukraines-advance-in-kursk-whats-next
10 a.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. NW — Hudson Institute discussion: “One Year after Camp David: How Durable Are Trilateral (U.S., Japan and South Korean) Ties?” with Mira Rapp-Hooper, senior director for East Asia and Oceania at the National Security Council; Wooseon Choi, director general of the Korea National Diplomatic Academy’s Department of International Security and Unification Studies (virtual); Myong-hyun Go, director, Institute for National Security Strategy’s Hybrid Threat Research Center (virtual); and Tetsuo Kotani, professor, Meikai University https://www.hudson.org/events/one-year-after-camp-david
12 p.m. — Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft virtual book discussion: “Illusions of Control: Dilemmas in Managing U.S. Proxy Forces in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria,” with author Erica Gaston, head of the United Nations University Centre for Policy Research’s Conflict and Sustaining Peace Programme; Adam Weinstein, deputy middle east director at the Quincy Institute https://quincyinst.org/events/book-talk-illusions-of-control
FRIDAY | AUGUST 16
2 p.m. Colorado Springs, Colorado — National Defense Industrial Association “2024 Space Warfighting Forum,” with Space Force Gen. Stephen Whiting, Commander, U.S. Space Command https://www.ndia.org/events/2024/8/14/2024-space-warfighting-forum
TUESDAY | AUGUST 20
10 a.m. — Brookings Institution virtual discussion: “The Wagner Group and Russia in Africa one year after Prigozhin’s death,” with Christopher Faulkner, assistant professor, College of Distance Education, U.S. Naval War College; Mark Galeotti, executive director, Mayak Intelligence; John Lechner, independent researcher; Angela Stent, nonresident senior fellow, Brookings Center on the United States and Europe; and moderator Vanda Felbab-Brown, senior fellow and director, Initiative on Nonstate Armed Actors, co-director, Brookings Africa Security Initiative https://www.brookings.edu/events/the-wagner-group-and-russia
FRIDAY | AUGUST 2310 a.m. 2401 M St., NW — George Washington University Project for Media and National Security Defense Writers Group “coffee-conversation,” with Christopher Maier, assistant secretary of defense for special operation and low-intensity conflict RSVP: [email protected]