Patriot system in Kyiv ‘damaged,’ not destroyed by Russian missile
Jamie McIntyre
‘DAMAGED,’ NOT DESTROYED: One of the two Patriot air defense systems provided by the United States, Germany, and the Netherlands to Ukraine apparently sustained some damage during yesterday’s Russian missile assault, but the extent of the damage is unclear.
Ukraine claimed it successfully intercepted 18 of 18 Russian missiles that were fired from the air, land, and sea in what appeared to be an attempt to overwhelm Ukraine’s robust air defenses surrounding Kyiv and take out a marquee Patriot battery to score a propaganda coup.
In a post on Telegram yesterday, the Russian Defense Ministry claimed “a high-precision strike by the Kinzhal hypersonic missile system in the city of Kyiv hit a US-made Patriot anti-aircraft missile system.”
What actually happened is unclear, in part because both sides have a motivation to shade the truth. Ukraine keeps its casualties and losses a closely-guarded secret to avoid providing any useful information to the enemy.
“U.S. officials say a Patriot defense system appears to have suffered some damage in Ukraine but it is not believed to be significant enough to even remove the system from Ukraine,” tweeted Idrees Ali, Pentagon correspondent for Reuters.
LAUNCHER OR RADAR? Video on social media appears to show a Patriot battery expending all of its missiles before an explosion on the ground. The question is what exploded.
Patriot batteries generally deploy with five to eight launchers equipped depending on whether they are armed with older PAC-2 missiles or newer PAC-3 versions. Published reports suggested at least one of the two Patriot batteries is equipped with PAC-2 launchers.
“Patriot operations must be judicious about what they shoot at. If Russia fires large missile salvos at its defended area, the Patriot battery could quickly run out of interceptors,” noted an analysis by the Center for Strategic and International Studies published last year when the Patriot deployment was first announced.
But the system, which takes 90 people to operate, is more than just launchers. It also includes command and control units, radars, and other support equipment. If a radar was hit, that could put the battery out of commission for some time. Raytheon Technologies manufactures the radar and ground systems, while Lockheed Martin manufactures the interceptor missiles.
At a White House briefing yesterday, NSC spokesman John Kirby would not confirm that a Patriot battery had been damaged, but he said if it had been, the U.S. would repair it. “Obviously if there was damage done to a Patriot system that needed to be repaired outside Ukraine, we would certainly assist with that.”
SHOIGU DISPUTES UKRAINIAN CLAIMS: Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu insists the Ukrainian claims of 100% kill rate on incoming missiles is inaccurate, telling the state-run RIA-Novosti news agency: “I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. We didn’t launch as many ‘daggers’ as they claim to have shot down every time.”
Kinzhal is “dagger” in Russian.
“Moreover, the number of those Ukrainian interceptions is three times higher than what we fire,” Shoigu continued. “Not to mention the fact that another big question is who really manages the American systems there. And with the type of missiles, they are wrong all the time. That’s why they don’t hit,” he said.
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HAPPENING TODAY: President Joe Biden departs later this morning (11:45 a.m.) for Hiroshima, Japan, to participate in a summit meeting of the Group of 7 nations, which is made up of the United States, Japan, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Canada, and Italy, as well as the European Union. The top of the agenda is the war in Ukraine and rising tensions with China.
“Over the last 15 months, the G-7 has stood in solidarity with Ukraine following Russia’s invasion, rallying the world to support Ukraine and cutting Putin off from the key technologies and financing around the globe,” said Kirby at yesterday’s briefing. “G-7 leaders will demonstrate that we share a common approach to the challenges posed by the PRC [People’s Republic of China], an approach that is grounded in common values.”
White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre and national security adviser Jake Sullivan are scheduled to brief reporters on Air Force One before it makes a refueling stop at Elmendorf Air Force Base in Anchorage, Alaska, late this afternoon.
WHITE HOUSE CUTS SHORT BIDEN’S TRIP ABROAD AMID DEBT CEILING TALKS
SULLIVAN’S UNWELCOME VISITOR: The U.S. Secret Service is investigating how an intruder managed to enter Sullivan’s home at 3 a.m. without his security detail noticing.
The Associated Press, citing two people familiar with the incident, said the unknown man, who appeared to be intoxicated, entered through an unlocked door, while agents posted outside the home were none the wiser.
It fell to Sullivan to go outside and alert the agents that the man had come and gone.
CIA RECRUITING VIDEO: The CIA has posted a video urging Russians who want to move beyond President Vladimir Putin to contact the agency through its dark web portal.
The video portrays fictional Russian officers secretly contacting the agency, and the CIA promises to protect anyone who does.
“The CIA wants to know the truth about Russia and we are looking for reliable people who know and can tell us this truth,” the CIA said in a Russian-language caption of the video posted on YouTube. “Your information may be more valuable than you think.”
The voiceover, also in Russian, portrays someone wrestling with the dilemma of wanting a better life, but not wanting to betray their country.
“I don’t believe in revolution. True life occurs where unnoticed changes take place in the souls of people — unnoticed for my country, for me. I will live a true life. This is my Russia, it will always be my Russia,” the fictional Russian thinks. “I stand firm, my family stands firm. We will live decently, thanks to my actions.”
AMERICAN KILLED IN BAKHMUT: After Wagner Group commander Yevgeny Prigozhin posted a gruesome video showing documents and the body of an American volunteer who died in the fighting at Bakhmut, several reports identified the soldier as retired Army Staff Sgt. Nicholas Maimer, a former Green Beret.
Maimer, 45, had been training civilian volunteers and died when a Russian artillery shell destroyed a building where he was positioned, reported the Seattle Times.
“They got in the position that they were, artillery started coming in heavy and the building started to collapse. That’s when most of the Americans and Ukrainians there were able to escape. Unfortunately, Nick was not able to escape,” an American friend of Maimer in Ukraine told CNN.
“Prigozhin claimed that he would give the body to US authorities because he likely died a worthy death in war,” according to the Institute for the Study of War.
FURY OVER SPACECOM HQ MOVE: Reports that the Biden administration is considering canceling a planned move to the headquarters of the U.S. Space Command from Colorado Springs, Colorado, to Huntsville, Alabama, because of Alabama’s restrictive abortion laws has infuriated the state’s lawmakers, reported the Washington Examiner’s Mike Brest.
Mike Rogers (R-AL), the chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, described the delayed announcement as “beyond frustrating,” and he urged the DOD and the Biden administration “to stop playing political games and affirm Huntsville as SPACECOM’s new home.”
Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-AL) said, “Joe Biden is undermining our readiness by politicizing the location of [U.S. Space Command] … Multiple independent, nonpartisan government reviews have found Space Command headquarters would be best served in Huntsville.”
Even Rep. Doug Lamborn (R-CO), who has long argued that Colorado Springs is the logical location for the permanent headquarters, questioned the rationale of making a decision based on abortion politics. “I just don’t see the administration making a decision on purely political grounds, like whether abortion is favored or not favored here or there. I would hope that they’re professional enough to make national security the focus of how they make their decision.”
LAWMAKERS WARN WHITE HOUSE AGAINST BASING SPACE COMMAND HEADQUARTERS DECISION ON ABORTION
The Rundown
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Washington Examiner: Lawmakers warn White House against basing Space Command headquarters decision on abortion
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Washington Examiner: White House cuts short Biden’s trip abroad amid debt ceiling talks
Washington Examiner: Durham report: Steele dossier may have been ‘compromised by the Russians’ before FBI used it
Washington Examiner: Durham report: Five key takeaways from the bombshell findings into Trump-Russia investigation
Washington Examiner: Opinion: Viktor Orban goes all in for China
AP: China Says Ready to ‘Smash’ Taiwan Self-Rule as US Prepares Major Arms Package, Sends Advisers
AP: South Korea’s president vows to expand non-lethal aid to Kyiv in meeting with Ukraine’s first lady
AP: North Korea shows Kim Jong Un examining a military spy satellite that may be launched soon
Defense News: ‘Devastating’ Debt Default Threatens Troop Pay, Defense Programs
Stars and Stripes: Congressional Standoffs Over Budgets, Debt Ceiling Hurt U.S. Effort To Deter China, Austin Says
Washington Post: Signs Of Deal On Debt Ceiling
New York Times: Putin’s War Ensnarled In Setbacks And Disunity
Wall Street Journal: Russian Officials Unnerved By Ukraine Bloodshed Are Contacting CIA, Agency Says
Washington Post: Missiles Intercepted As Russia Escalates Strikes On Kyiv
Defense One: US Aid to Ukraine On Track to Run Out in September
USNI News: Pacific Battle Problem Tests Expanded Use Of Networked Autonomous Warships
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Key Lawmaker Is ‘Hugely Supportive’ of This Pentagon Proposal. Now He Has to Convince Skeptics in Congress
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Senators Maneuver for Edge in Stalemate Over Abortion and General Promotions
Space News: Political Fight Escalates Over Space National Guard
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Air Force Times: The Air Force Reimagines Its Tech Schools
19fortyfive.com: Why No F-35 for Taiwan?
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Military.com: 50 Years Later, Vietnam Veterans Finally Get Official Tribute to Their Service and Sacrifice
Forbes: Opinion: Urgent Military Need For ‘Affordable Mass’ Can’t Wait For A New Generation Of Smart Munitions
Calendar
WEDNESDAY | MAY 17
8 a.m. 410 National Business Pkwy., Annapolis Junction, Maryland — Intelligence and National Security Alliance virtual discussion: “Preparing for a Post-Quantum Future,” with Morgan Stern, cryptographic algorithms and assessments technical lead at the National Security Agency; Ajmer Dwivedi, NSA China quantum senior analyst; Moses Liskov, principal scientist at MITRE; Jen Sovada, president for the public sector at SandboxAQ; and John Doyon, INSA executive vice president. [This event is classified at the TS/SCI level]. https://tinyurl.com/4rhpxnnw
8:30 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “Australia’s New Defence Strategic Review,” with Angus Houston, former chief of Australia’s Defense Forces and co-author of the new Defense Strategic Review; and former Defense Secretary William Cohen, chairman of the Cohen Group https://www.csis.org/events/conversation
9 a.m. 529 14th St. NW — Atlantic Council and Applied Intuition two-day NEXUS 23 Symposium: “The Intersection of Defense, National Security, and Autonomy,” with Rep. Rob Wittman (R-VA); James Geurts, former assistant Navy Secretary for research, development and acquisition; and former Defense Secretary Mark Esper https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/nexus-23
9:30 a.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: “Turkish Elections: Takeaways and implications,” with Asli Aydintasbas, visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution’s Center on the United States and Europe; Soner Cagaptay, director of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy’s Turkish Research Program; and Alper Coskun, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s Europe Program https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/turkish-elections
10 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “Allied Burden Sharing in Ukraine,” with German Ambassador to the United States Emily Haber; Polish Ambassador to the United States Marek Magierowski; former Spanish Foreign Minister Ana Palacio; and former Georgian Foreign Minister Eka Tkeshelashvili https://www.csis.org/events/allied-burden-sharing-ukraine
10 a.m. — Korea Economic Institute of America discussion: “U.S.-ROK-Japan Trilateral Relations and Integrated Deterrence,” with Becca Wasser, senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security’s Defense Program; James Schoff, senior director of the Sasakawa Peace Foundation’s U.S.-Japan NEXT Alliance Initiative; and Bee Yun Jo, associate research fellow at the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses https://keia.org/event/us-rok-japan-trilateral-relations
12 p.m. — Hudson Institute in-person and virtual event: “The Next Move in Ukraine: A Conversation with Michael Pompeo,” with Peter Rough, senior fellow and director, Center on Europe and Eurasia https://www.hudson.org/events/next-move-ukraine
1 p.m. — Hudson Institute in-person and virtual event: “American National Security and the Russian-Iranian War on Ukraine: A Conversation with Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX),” with Michael Doran, senior fellow and director, Center for Peace and Security in the Middle East https://www.hudson.org/events/american-national-security-russian-iranian-war-ukraine-conversation-senator-ted-cruz
1:30 p.m. — Cipher Brief virtual conversation: “Thinking Like An Analyst In An Increasingly Complex World,” with Linda Weissgold, director of analysis, CIA https://www.thecipherbrief.com/expert-national-security-briefing-series
2 p.m. HVC-210 Capitol — House Foreign Affairs Committee hearing: “The State of American Influence in 2023: Great Power Competition and Persistent Crises in an Era of Budget Constraints,” with testimony from Samantha Power, administrator, U.S. Agency for International Development https://www.youtube.com/watch
2 p.m. 1619 Massachusetts Ave. NW — Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies discussion: “Russia’s Wagner Group: Decoding the Transnational Criminal Organization’s Growing Footprint in North Africa,” with Joshua Harris, deputy assistant secretary of state for near eastern affairs; and Andrea Cellino, executive in residence at the Geneva Center for Security Policy https://sais.jhu.edu/campus-events
3 p.m. 418 Russell — Senate Veterans’ Affairs Committee hearing: “Review of the FY2024 Budget and 2025 Advance Appropriations Requests for the Department of Veterans Affairs,” with testimony from VA Secretary Denis McDonough; Morgan Brown, national legislative director for Paralyzed Veterans of America; Shane Liermann, deputy national legislative director for Disabled American Veterans; and Patrick Murray, director of national legislative service for Veterans of Foreign Wars http://veterans.senate.gov
7 p.m. 1310 Longworth — House Select Strategic Competition Between the United States and the Chinese Communist Party Committee hearing: “Leveling the Playing Field: How to Counter the Chinese Communist Party’s Economic Aggression,” with testimony from Robert Lighthizer, former U.S. trade representative; Roger Robinson, chairman of the Prague Security Studies Institute and former chairman of congressional U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission; and Eric Schmidt, chairman of the Special Competitive Studies Project https://selectcommitteeontheccp.house.gov/committee
THURSDAY | MAY 18
9 a.m. HVC-210, U.S. Capitol — House Foreign Affairs Indo-Pacific Subcommittee hearing: “Standing United Against the People’s Republic of China’s Economic Aggression and Predatory Practices,” with testimony from David Feith, adjunct senior fellow at the Center for New American Security; Alon Raphael, CEO of FemtoMetrix; Matthew Reynolds, fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies’s Economics Program; and Derek Scissors, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute https://foreignaffairs.house.gov/hearing/standing-united
9 a.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: “What Can the World Expect from Ukraine’s Counteroffensive?” with retired Army Gen. Wesley Clark, former supreme NATO commander; former Ukrainian Minister of Defense Andriy Zagorodnyuk, chairman of the Center for Defense Strategies; Andrea Kendall-Taylor, director of the Center for a New American Security’s Transatlantic Security Program; David Kramer, executive director of the George W. Bush Institute; and Vladimir Milov, vice president of international advocacy at the Free Russia Foundation https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/what-can-the-world-expect
9 a.m. — Atlantic Council and Applied Intuition two-day NEXUS 23 Symposium: “The Intersection of Defense, National Security, and Autonomy,” with Ellen Lord, former undersecretary of defense for acquisition and sustainment; and Lt. Gen. Christopher Donahue, commanding general of XVIII Airborne Corps and Fort Bragg https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/nexus-23
10 a.m. — Foundation for Defense of Democracies virtual and in-person event: “Turkey’s Elections: A Contested and Uncertain Outcome,” with Steven Cook, senior fellow for Middle East and Africa studies and director of the International Affairs Fellowship for Tenured International Relations Scholars at the Council on Foreign Relations; Howard Eissenstat, associate professor of Middle East history at St. Lawrence University; Sibel Oktay, associate professor and former director of the School of Politics and International Affairs at the University of Illinois, Springfield; and Sinan Ciddi, non-resident senior fellow at FDD and associate professor of national security studies at Marine Corps University https://www.fdd.org/events/2023/05/18/turkeys-elections
10:30 a.m. 1401 Pennsylvania Ave. NW — Government Executive Media Group two-day Cyber Summit, with David McKeown, Defense Department deputy chief information officer for cybersecurity; David Forbes, director of cyber physical defense at Booz Allen Hamilton https://events.govexec.com/cyber-summit-2023
11 a.m. — Nuclear Threat Initiative virtual book discussion: Inheriting the Bomb: The Collapse of the USSR and the Nuclear Disarmament of Ukraine, with author Mariana Budjeryn, senior research associate at the Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center’s Project on Managing the Atom https://www.nti.org/events/nti-seminar-inheriting-the-bomb
FRIDAY | MAY 19
12 p.m. — Jewish Institute for National Security of America webinar: “Will He Stay or Will He Go? Turkey’s Elections and Erdogan’s Fate,” with Eric Edelman, counselor, JINSA’s Gemunder Center for Defense and Strategy; Alan Makovsky, member, JINSA’s Eastern Mediterranean Policy Project; and Blaise Misztal, JINSA vice president for policy https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register
QUOTE OF THE DAY “The CIA wants to know the truth about Russia and we are looking for reliable people who know and can tell us this truth … Your information may be more valuable than you think.” Caption on a new CIA recruiting video aimed at getting potential Russian assets to contact the agency securely on its dark web portal.