‘Unbelievable success’: Ukraine touts effectiveness of impenetrable missile shield
Jamie McIntyre
‘UNBELIEVABLE SUCCESS’: Russia unleashed another onslaught of cruise missiles and drones targeting Kyiv overnight, but Ukraine claims all 18 were successfully intercepted by air defenses provided by Western allies.
“Another unbelievable success for the Ukrainian Air Forces! Last night, our sky defenders shot down SIX Russian hypersonic Kinzhal missiles and 12 other missiles,” tweeted Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov. “Russian terrorists have no chance of prevailing over Ukraine. Their weapons can and should be countered by Western ones.”
On its Facebook page, the Ukrainian General Staff said the missile and drone attack — the eighth in 16 days — began at 3:30 a.m. and came from three different directions. Russian MiG-37Ks launched six hypersonic Kinzhal Kh-47 missiles, which are billed as flying at ten times the speed of sound. Nine Kalibr “winged missiles” were fired from ships in the Black Sea, along with three ground-launched Iskander-M ballistic missiles.
“All 18 rockets were destroyed by the forces and anti-air defense means of the Air Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine,” the General Staff said.
RUSSIA ADMITS TWO COMMANDERS KILLED AS UKRAINE FINDS SUCCESS IN BAKHMUT
RUSSIA’S ‘FULL-SCALE DEFENSE PARTNERSHIP’ WITH IRAN: With Russia running low on missiles, artillery rounds, and tank ammunition, Moscow is increasingly relying on Iran to replenish its dwindling arsenal of drones, according to the White House.
“We continue to see indications that Iran and Russia are expanding their unprecedented defense partnership. Iran remains Russia’s top military backer,” said NSC spokesman John Kirby in a briefing for reporters.
“Since August, Iran has provided Russia with more than 400 UAVs [drones], primarily of the Shahed variety. Russia has expended most of these UAVs, using them to target Ukrainian critical infrastructure inside Ukraine,” Kirby said. “This is a full-scale defense partnership that is harmful to Ukraine, to the region in the Middle East and to the international community.”
In the coming days, the White House is expected to announce sanctions targeting “third-country actors” who the U.S. said are involved in the transfer of Iranian military equipment to Russia for use in Ukraine.
IRAN AND RUSSIA HAVE DEVELOPED ‘FULL-SCALE DEFENSE PARTNERSHIP,’ WHITE HOUSE WARNS
M1 ‘TRAINER’ TANKS ARRIVE: The Pentagon insists it is doing everything it can to get the 31 promised M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine as soon as possible, but it still looks like early fall is the soonest they will appear on the battlefield.
The tanks, pulled from U.S. stocks, are currently being “refurbished,” said Pentagon spokesman Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder at yesterday’s briefing. “They will be updated, upgraded and prepared for exportability to Ukraine.”
Meanwhile, training of Ukrainian tank crews will begin in a few weeks at the sprawling base in Grafenwoehr, Germany, where 31 “training” tanks have arrived. “These tanks are intended specifically for training and don’t necessarily have the capabilities that they would need to go into combat.”
Because the Abrams tanks run on a different kind of fuel than the other tanks Ukraine has, the U.S. also has to make sure logistics support is in place to maintain the tanks in combat conditions.
“The M1 is a complex machine that requires a lot of maintenance to sustain it, keep it operating,” said Ryder. “So that will be crucial, which is why we’re doing the training in stride with the actual refurbishment of the tanks.”
HOW UKRAINE HAS BENEFITED BY DELAYING ITS COUNTEROFFENSIVE
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HAPPENING TODAY: Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, and Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo testify before the Senate Appropriations Committee at 2 p.m. on the path ahead for U.S.-China relations.
The afternoon hearing comes a week after national security adviser Jake Sullivan huddled for two days in Vienna with top Chinese diplomat Wang Yi for talks aimed at resetting relations between Washington and Beijing after a Chinese spy balloon traversed the U.S. in early February.
The White House described the high-level talks as “candid, substantive, and constructive.”
“I think both sides recognized that that unfortunate incident led to a bit of pause in engagement. We’re seeking to move beyond that and reestablishing just standard, normal channels of communications,” a senior administration official told reporters last week.
Sullivan “underscored that the United States and the [People’s Republic of China] are in competition but that the U.S. does not seek conflict or confrontation,” the official said. “He indicated that the United States stands ready to work with the PRC on issues of transnational concerns, such as counternarcotics.”
WHITE HOUSE NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISER MEETS WITH CHINESE DIPLOMAT
ALSO TODAY, MORE DEBT CEILING TALKS: President Joe Biden has a 3 p.m. Oval Office meeting with the usual suspects to take another crack at breaking the impasse over raising the debt ceiling so the nation can pay its bills.
House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA), Majority Leader Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY), Minority Leader Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY), and Minority Leader Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) will all be in attendance.
So far, despite optimistic statements from Biden over the weekend, little headway has been reported, aside from an agreement to reclaim some unspent COVID funds.
“I just don’t see the progress happening,” McCarthy told reporters yesterday.
The U.S. could default on its debts as soon as June 1, according to Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.
BIDEN WILL MEET MCCARTHY FOR DEBT CEILING TALKS ON TUESDAY
ABORTION POLITICS COULD NIX SPACECOM MOVE: The Air Force recommendation to establish the permanent headquarters of the U.S. Space Command in Huntsville, Alabama, could be overruled because of the state’s restrictive abortion laws, NBC news reported.
“This is all about abortion politics,” said one of three unnamed officials quoted in the report.
“Biden administration officials have signaled privately to Pentagon officials and lawmakers that they’re looking to reverse the Alabama decision over concerns about operational disruptions that moving Spacecom’s headquarters, which is currently located in Colorado Springs, Colorado, could bring,” NBC reported.
A White House review of the Trump administration’s decision was “ordered up in the months after Alabama’s law banning nearly all abortions, including in cases of rape and incest, went into effect last summer,” the report said.
The law is considered among the most restrictive in the U.S.
NASA SAYS AIRLINER-SIZED ASTEROID TO PASS EARTH ON TUESDAY
ROGERS: TIME TO SCRAP THE NATO-RUSSIA FOUNDING ACT: House Armed Services Committee Chairman Mike Rogers (R-AL) said it’s long past time to recognize that the 1997 NATO-Russia Founding Act has been rendered irrelevant by Russia’s unprovoked and illegal invasion of Ukraine.
The agreement, signed in Paris by former President Bill Clinton and former Russian President Boris Yeltsin, is a vestige of a far different time, when NATO had just 16 members, and it was thought Russia would become a partner, not an adversary.
The document envisioned an “enduring political commitment” for Russia and NATO to “build together a lasting and inclusive peace in the Euro-Atlantic area on the principles of democracy and cooperative security.”
“Leaders in Washington must recognize that the NATO-Russia Founding Act has been effectively killed by Russia’s ongoing war,” wrote Rogers in an essay for Foreign Policy. “The alliance should act in unison and officially declare the act dead at the upcoming NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, and Congress should echo these sentiments in support.”
“This agreement sought to build trust and cooperation between the two parties, but given that Putin has launched the largest land war in Europe since World War II, the political commitment of this agreement should no longer constrain U.S. troop movements and basing in Eastern Europe as it has for the past quarter century,” Rogers argued.
Rogers said that given that two-thirds of NATO nations have failed to meet the goal of spending 2% of GDP on their own defense, the U.S. should consider redeploying U.S. troops from “Old Europe” to “New Europe.”
“The time has come to shift current U.S. forces in Europe to the countries that are investing most heavily in their own security,” he wrote. “It is in the east, with the countries that truly understand the Russian threat, where our troops will be the most useful and have the largest impact on deterrence.”
“The backbone of NATO, once centered in Paris and Berlin, is shifting eastward and now stretches from Helsinki to the Black Sea. Eastern European nations — namely, Poland, Romania, Finland, and the Baltic states — understand more acutely than their Western neighbors the threat posed by Russia and the imperative for collective resolve in its face.”
UK PROMISES UKRAINE LONG-RANGE ATTACK DRONES DURING ZELENSKY VISIT
The Rundown
Washington Examiner: Iran and Russia have developed ‘full-scale defense partnership,’ White House warns
Washington Examiner: Russian media say authorities arrested former US Embassy official
Washington Examiner: How Ukraine has benefited by delaying its counteroffensive
Washington Examiner: Russia admits two commanders killed as Ukraine finds success in Bakhmut
Washington Examiner: UK promises Ukraine long-range attack drones during Zelensky visit
Washington Examiner: Chinese court sentences elderly US citizen to life in prison on spying charges
Washington Examiner: Camp Lejeune veterans had 70% higher rate of Parkinson’s disease: Study
Washington Examiner: Durham report: FBI and DOJ had no proper basis to launch Trump-Russia investigation
Washington Examiner: Durham report shows how Christopher Steele forgot Fort Monckton
Washington Examiner: NASA says airliner-sized asteroid to pass Earth on Tuesday
Washington Examiner: Pakistani illegal immigrant on FBI terror list arrested at border day after Title 42 ended
Washington Examiner: Afghan immigrant on FBI terror watchlist arrested crossing southern border illegally
Washington Examiner: Immigrants receive court dates up to 10 years after crossing border illegally
NBC News: Biden Administration May Halt Plans to Move Space Command to Alabama over State’s Abortion Law, Officials Say
Politico: The End Of Ukraine Aid Is Rapidly Approaching. Reupping It Won’t Be Easy
Wall Street Journal: Bakhmut Strategy Is Paying Off, Says Ukrainian Military
AP: NATO Mulls Future Security Guarantees For Ukraine But Wary Of Igniting A Wider War
Washington Post: Russia Rejects Report On Prigozhin Wagner Boss Offered Deal To Ukraine
Reuters: Chinese Warships Return To West Pacific For Live-Fire Drills
Reuters: U.S. And Micronesia Agree To Renew Strategic Pact, U.S. Envoy Says
Bloomberg: Top Taiwanese Lawmaker Visits U.S. Capitol To Meet China Hard-Liners
Washington Post: Erdogan Has The Advantage As Turkey’s Presidential Election Heads To Runoff
Defense One: Hypersonics, Nukes Top House Lawmaker’s Priorities List
New York Times: Rules for Pentagon Use of Proxy Forces Shed Light on a Shadowy War Power
Air & Space Forces Magazine: NORAD Intercepts Russian Warplanes Near Military Exercise in Alaska
Air & Space Forces Magazine: F-22 Raptors Deploy to Estonia to Bolster Baltic Air Defense
Air & Space Forces Magazine: CSO to Guardians: Space Force Needs a Better Mission Statement
Space News: Space Force General: ‘No Pushback’ from Congress on 2024 Budget Priorities
DefenseScoop: Many Believe It’s Time for an Independent Uniformed Cyber Service. Here’s What It Could Look Like
Military.com: Cleanup of ‘Forever Chemicals’ Around Military Bases Is Woefully Underfunded, Group Says
DefenseScoop: Gen. Milley Hosts Mike Bloomberg to Advise Military Bosses on Innovation Challenges
19fortyfive.com: Did Ukraine’s Air Defenses Just Go on the Offense Over Russia’s Skies?
19fortyfive.com: Zombie Ideas Could Doom the Marine Corps’ Future
19fortyfive.com: Are Surface Warships Obsolete?
The Cipher Brief: Putin’s Days May Be Numbered, but China’s the Bigger Threat, says Ex-CIA Chief
The Cipher Brief: Book Review: Lessons Learned from Sailing Upwind
The Cipher Brief: Zelensky has Six Months to Win the War for the West
Calendar
TUESDAY | MAY 16
7 a.m. 7920 Jones Branch Dr., McLean, Virginia — Potomac Officers Club annual Chief Information Officers Summit, with Pentagon CIO John Sherman; and Lt. Gen. Mary O’Brien, director of C4 and cyber and chief information officer at Air Force J6 https://potomacofficersclub.com/events/poc-4th-annual-cio-summit
10 a.m. 419 Dirksen — Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing: “What Comes Next for U.S. Policy Towards Russia?” with testimony from Andrea Kendall Taylor, senior fellow and director, Transatlantic Security Program, Center for a New American Security; and John Sullivan, former deputy secretary of state and U.S. ambassador to Russia https://www.foreign.senate.gov/hearings/what-comes-next-for-us-policy-towards-russia
10 a.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Committee “Member Day” hearing, with testimony from members of Congress on their national defense priorities for the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) for Fiscal Year 2024 https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings/full-committee
10 a.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE — Heritage Foundation discussion: “Naval Statecraft and Power in the 21st Century,” with former Navy Secretary Kenneth Braithwaite https://www.heritage.org/defense/event/naval-statecraft
12:30 p.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. NW — Hudson Institute discussion: “Defending Democracy,” with Taiwan Legislative Yuan President You Si-kun https://www.hudson.org/events/defending-democracy
2 p.m. 106 Dirksen — Senate Appropriations Committee hearing: “A Review of the President’s Fiscal Year 24 Budget Request: Investing in US Security, Competitiveness, and the Path Ahead for the U.S.-China Relationship,” with testimony from Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, Secretary of State Antony Blinken, and Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo https://www.appropriations.senate.gov/hearings
2 p.m — Henry Stimson Center virtual discussion: “Beyond the Washington Declaration: Prospects for the Future of Extended Deterrence,” focusing on North Korea and China, with Elaine Bunn, former deputy assistant defense secretary for nuclear and missile defense policy; retired Army Gen. Curtis Scaparrotti, former supreme NATO commander; Paul Bernstein, former fellow at National Defense University’s Center for the Study of Weapons of Mass Destruction; and Joel Wit, fellow in Asian and security studies at Stimson https://www.stimson.org/event/beyond-the-washington-declaration
4:45 p.m. EDT Honolulu, Hawaii — Association of U.S. Army 2023 LANPAC Symposium And Exposition, with Army Gen. James Dickinson, commander, U.S. Space Command, among others https://meetings.ausa.org/lanpac. Livestream at https://www.dvidshub.net
5 p.m. 1521 16th St. NW — Institute of World Politics lecture: “Maoist Revolutionary War Outside China,” with Christopher Harmon, fellow at the Marine Corps University’s Center for Innovation and Future Warfare https://www.iwp.edu/events/maoist-revolutionary-war-outside-china/
8:30 p.m. — Asia Society Policy Institute Australia virtual discussion: “The 2023 Quad Leaders’ Summit: What to Expect,” with Takako Hikotani, senior fellow at ASPI Tokyo; Richard Maude, senior fellow at ASPI Canberra; Raja Mohan, senior fellow at ASPI Delhi; Daniel Russel, vice president of international security and diplomacy at ASPI New York; and Dominique Fraser, research associate at ASPI Brisbane https://asiasociety.org/australia/events/2023-quad-leaders
WEDNESDAY | MAY 17
8 a.m. 410 National Business Pkwy., Annapolis Junction, Maryland — Intelligence and National Security Alliance virtual discussion: “Preparing for a Post-Quantum Future,” with Morgan Stern, cryptographic algorithms and assessments technical lead at the National Security Agency; Ajmer Dwivedi, NSA China quantum senior analyst; Moses Liskov, principal scientist at MITRE; Jen Sovada, president for the public sector at SandboxAQ; and John Doyon, INSA executive vice president. [This event is classified at the TS/SCI level]. https://tinyurl.com/4rhpxnnw
8:30 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “Australia’s New Defence Strategic Review,” with Angus Houston, former chief of Australia’s Defense Forces and co-author of the new Defense Strategic Review; and former Defense Secretary William Cohen, chairman of the Cohen Group https://www.csis.org/events/conversation
9 a.m. 529 14th St. NW — Atlantic Council and Applied Intuition two-day NEXUS 23 Symposium: “The Intersection of Defense, National Security, and Autonomy,” with Rep. Rob Wittman (R-VA); James Geurts, former assistant Navy Secretary for research, development and acquisition; and former Defense Secretary Mark Esper https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/nexus-23
9:30 a.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: “Turkish Elections: Takeaways and implications,” with Asli Aydintasbas, visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution’s Center on the United States and Europe; Soner Cagaptay, director of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy’s Turkish Research Program; and Alper Coskun, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s Europe Program https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/turkish-elections
10 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “Allied Burden Sharing in Ukraine,” with German Ambassador to the United States Emily Haber; Polish Ambassador to the United States Marek Magierowski; former Spanish Foreign Minister Ana Palacio; and former Georgian Foreign Minister Eka Tkeshelashvili https://www.csis.org/events/allied-burden-sharing-ukraine
10 a.m. — Korea Economic Institute of America discussion: “U.S.-ROK-Japan Trilateral Relations and Integrated Deterrence,” with Becca Wasser, senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security’s Defense Program; James Schoff, senior director of the Sasakawa Peace Foundation’s U.S.-Japan NEXT Alliance Initiative; and Bee Yun Jo, associate research fellow at the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses https://keia.org/event/us-rok-japan-trilateral-relations
12 p.m. — Hudson Institute in-person and virtual event: “The Next Move in Ukraine: A Conversation with Michael Pompeo,” with Peter Rough, senior fellow and director, Center on Europe and Eurasia https://www.hudson.org/events/next-move-ukraine
1 p.m. — Hudson Institute in-person and virtual event: “American National Security and the Russian-Iranian War on Ukraine: A Conversation with Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX),” with Michael Doran, senior fellow and director, Center for Peace and Security in the Middle East https://www.hudson.org/events/american-national-security-russian-iranian-war-ukraine-conversation-senator-ted-cruz
1:30 p.m. — Cipher Brief virtual conversation: “Thinking Like An Analyst In An Increasingly Complex World,” with Linda Weissgold, director of analysis, CIA https://www.thecipherbrief.com/expert-national-security-briefing-series
2 p.m. HVC-210 Capitol — House Foreign Affairs Committee hearing: “The State of American Influence in 2023: Great Power Competition and Persistent Crises in an Era of Budget Constraints,” with testimony from Samantha Power, administrator, U.S. Agency for International Development https://www.youtube.com/watch
2 p.m. 1619 Massachusetts Ave. NW — Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies discussion: “Russia’s Wagner Group: Decoding the Transnational Criminal Organization’s Growing Footprint in North Africa,” with Joshua Harris, deputy assistant secretary of state for near eastern affairs; and Andrea Cellino, executive in residence at the Geneva Center for Security Policy https://sais.jhu.edu/campus-events
7 p.m. 1310 Longworth — House Select Strategic Competition Between the United States and the Chinese Communist Party Committee hearing: “Leveling the Playing Field: How to Counter the Chinese Communist Party’s Economic Aggression,” with testimony from Robert Lighthizer, former U.S. trade representative; Roger Robinson, chairman of the Prague Security Studies Institute and former chairman of congressional U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission; and Eric Schmidt, chairman of the Special Competitive Studies Project https://selectcommitteeontheccp.house.gov/committee
THURSDAY | MAY 18
9 a.m. HVC-210, U.S. Capitol — House Foreign Affairs Indo-Pacific Subcommittee hearing: “Standing United Against the People’s Republic of China’s Economic Aggression and Predatory Practices,” with testimony from David Feith, adjunct senior fellow at the Center for New American Security; Alon Raphael, CEO of FemtoMetrix; Matthew Reynolds, fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies’s Economics Program; and Derek Scissors, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute https://foreignaffairs.house.gov/hearing/standing-united
9 a.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: “What Can the World Expect from Ukraine’s Counteroffensive?” with retired Army Gen. Wesley Clark, former supreme NATO commander; former Ukrainian Minister of Defense Andriy Zagorodnyuk, chairman of the Center for Defense Strategies; Andrea Kendall-Taylor, director of the Center for a New American Security’s Transatlantic Security Program; David Kramer, executive director of the George W. Bush Institute; and Vladimir Milov, vice president of international advocacy at the Free Russia Foundation https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/what-can-the-world-expect
9 a.m. — Atlantic Council and Applied Intuition two-day NEXUS 23 Symposium: “The Intersection of Defense, National Security, and Autonomy,” with Ellen Lord, former undersecretary of defense for acquisition and sustainment; and Lt. Gen. Christopher Donahue, commanding general of XVIII Airborne Corps and Fort Bragg https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/nexus-23/
10:30 a.m. 1401 Pennsylvania Ave. NW — Government Executive Media Group two-day Cyber Summit, with David McKeown, Defense Department deputy chief information officer for cybersecurity; David Forbes, director of cyber physical defense at Booz Allen Hamilton https://events.govexec.com/cyber-summit-2023
11 a.m. — Nuclear Threat Initiative virtual book discussion: Inheriting the Bomb: The Collapse of the USSR and the Nuclear Disarmament of Ukraine, with author Mariana Budjeryn, senior research associate at the Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center’s Project on Managing the Atom https://www.nti.org/events/nti-seminar-inheriting-the-bomb
FRIDAY | MAY 19
12 p.m. — Jewish Institute for National Security of America webinar: “Will He Stay or Will He Go? Turkey’s Elections and Erdogan’s Fate,” with Eric Edelman, counselor, JINSA’s Gemunder Center for Defense and Strategy; Alan Makovsky, member, JINSA’s Eastern Mediterranean Policy Project; and Blaise Misztal, JINSA vice president for policy https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register
QUOTE OF THE DAY “The backbone of NATO, once centered in Paris and Berlin, is shifting eastward and now stretches from Helsinki to the Black Sea. Eastern European nations — namely, Poland, Romania, Finland, and the Baltic states — understand more acutely than their Western neighbors the threat posed by Russia and the imperative for collective resolve in its face.” Rep. Mike Rogers (R-AL), chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, writing in Foreign Policy that the U.S. should shift troops to countries that spend more on their own defense.