Britain takes the lead in providing missiles and pilot training to Ukraine ahead of planned counteroffensive
Jamie McIntyre
UK TO PROVIDE F-16 PILOT TRAINING: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is in London this morning meeting with British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, who has turned out to be the most forward-leaning ally when it comes to giving Ukraine the weapons it says it needs to defeat Russia in its coming counteroffensive.
Last week, the United Kingdom announced it provided hundreds of long-range Storm Shadow cruise missiles, and today, Sunak confirmed that his government, which has already trained some 15,000 Ukrainian soldiers, will begin pilot training with an eye toward getting Ukraine the F-16 fighter jets it says it so desperately needs, and the U.S. refuses to provide.
“This is a crucial moment in Ukraine’s resistance to a terrible war of aggression they did not choose or provoke, Sunak said. “We must not let them down.”
Sunak said training will begin this summer, and it will provide Ukrainian pilots with basic piloting skills that will transfer different kinds of aircraft. “This training goes hand in hand with U.K. efforts to work with other countries on providing F16 jets — Ukraine’s fighter jets of choice.”
“The UK is a leader when it comes to expanding our capabilities on the ground and in the air,” said Zelensky on Twitter.
ZELENSKY’S EUROPEAN TOUR: Zelensky’s meeting with Sunak at Chequers, the prime minister’s country retreat outside London, is his second visit to the U.K. and comes after similar unannounced visits to Germany and France over the weekend.
Yesterday morning, Zelensky met with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in Berlin, who announced another $3 billion package of arms, including more tanks, anti-aircraft systems, and ammunition.
Then in the evening, Zelensky showed up in Paris, where he met for three hours with French President Emmanuel Macron at the Elysee Palace, where France committed to train more Ukrainian troops and provide additional light tanks, armored vehicles, and air defense systems.
“With each visit, Ukraine’s defense and offensive capabilities are expanding,” Zelensky tweeted upon his arrival in Paris. “The ties with Europe are getting stronger, and the pressure on Russia is growing.”
RUSSIA’S VERY BAD DAY: Russian forces seem increasingly spooked by the uncertainty about the impending counteroffensive, wondering day-to-day when it will start or if it has already started.
U.S. and Ukrainian officials say small ground offensive and missile attacks against Russian supply depo and command posts are “shaping operations” designed to set the conditions for success when the counteroffensive begins for real.
“We are preparing very seriously. And very serious steps will definitely take place,” Zelensky said in an interview with Italian media during his visit to Rome Saturday. “You will definitely see it, and Russia will definitely feel it.”
On Saturday, Russia lost two Mi-8 military helicopters and one each of Su-34 and Su-35 fighter jets, which appeared to be shot down over Russian territory as they prepared to attack targets in Ukraine.
It’s not clear how the aircraft were shot down, from air-to-air missiles or ground defenses, including shoulder-fire missiles. It appeared possible the military aircraft were downed by friendly fire from Russia’s own air defenses.
“Russian milbloggers speculated that all four aircraft crashed as the result of a coordinated Ukrainian strike using air defense systems pulled to the border area of Chernihiv Oblast,” the Institute for the Study of War reported in its Saturday update.
CHINESE SPECIAL ENVOY TO VISIT UKRAINE AND RUSSIA AMONG OTHER COUNTRIES
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HAPPENING TODAY: It’s a nail-biter in Turkey where, with 49% of the vote, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has not quite secured the 50% he needs to avoid a runoff election in two weeks.
In the election, which could hold major implications for the NATO alliance, pro-Western challenger Kemal Kilicdaroglu won 45% of the vote in a four-candidate field, while Erdogan has 49.4%.
Erdogan has held up Sweden’s bid to join NATO, while Kilicdaroglu has indicated he will seek closer ties with the West.
ERDOGAN HEADED TO RUNOFF IN REELECTION FIGHT AFTER FAILING TO GET MAJORITY VOTE
HAPPENING TOMORROW: President Joe Biden is scheduled to meet again with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) and other congressional leaders at the White House for another negotiating session as the nation teeters on default over the impasse on raising the debt ceiling.
Despite few signs of progress, Biden told reporters during a Sunday ride in Rehoboth Beach, Delaware, “I remain optimistic because I’m a congenital optimist. But I really think there’s a desire on their part, as well as ours, to reach an agreement, and I think we’ll be able to do it.”
Time is running out, as the so-called “X-Day,” the day the government would exhaust its spending authority, is just over weeks away. Biden is scheduled to leave for the Group of 7 summit in Japan on Wednesday.
DEBT CEILING DEADLINE RAISES EYEBROWS OVER BIDEN’S NEGOTIATION STRATEGY
PATRIOT 1, KINZHAL 0: It turns out that the hypersonic Kh-47 Kinzhal air-launched ballistic missile that was shot down by a Patriot air defense system over Kyiv a week ago was an attempt by Russia to take out the missile battery itself.
“U.S. officials believe the Russians picked up on signals that are emitted from the Patriot, allowing it to be targeted. Ukrainians fired multiple missiles from the Patriot at different angles to intercept the Russian Kinzhal missile,” CNN reported.
When the deployment of Raytheon and Lockheed Martin Patriot systems to Ukraine was announced, Russia vowed to make them primary targets. While the Patriot’s powerful radar emits a powerful signal, which can be easily tracked, it also would lure any radar-seeking missile targeting it directly into its line of fire.
Still photos of wreckage posted on Twitter seemed to confirm the downed missile was a Kinzhal, a ground-launched Iskander modified to be fired from a MiG-31.
US PATRIOT AIR DEFENSE SYSTEM SENT TO UKRAINE IS NOT YOUR FATHER’S ANTI-MISSILE MISSILE
UK: RUSSIA BIGGER, NOT BETTER: In its latest intelligence update, the British Defense Ministry said while Russian troop strength in Ukraine “on paper” still numbers more than 200,000 soldiers in 70 combat regiments, the force is “unlikely to be an organization which will effectively cohere large-scale military effect along the 1,200 km front line under stress,” and “still struggles with limited freedom to conduct air operations.”
“In February 2022 it consisted of professional soldiers; was largely equipped with reasonably modern vehicles; and had been regularly exercised, aspiring to complex, joint operations,” the assessment said. “Now the force is mostly poorly trained mobilized reservists and increasingly reliant on antiquated equipment, with many of its units severely under-strength. It routinely only conducts very simple, infantry-based operations.”
“Critically, it is unlikely that [Russia] has been able to generate a large, capable, mobile reserve to respond to emerging operational challenges,” U.K. intelligence concluded.
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The Rundown
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Calendar
MONDAY | MAY 15
10 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW — Center for Strategic and International Studies “Impossible State” podcast: “Yoon’s China Policy: The Gloves are Off?” with Ramon Pacheco Pardo, professor at King’s College London https://www.csis.org/events/impossible-state
11 a.m. — Environmental Working Group, an advocacy group, releases an analysis questioning the Pentagon’s ability to confront the increasing costs of cleaning up sites contaminated with toxic PFAS, with John Reeder, EWG vice president of federal affairs; Jared Hayes, EWG senior policy analyst; and Scott Faber, EWG senior vice president of government affairs. Email JR Culpepper at [email protected] for the Zoom link
2 p.m. — Intelligence and National Security Alliance virtual discussion: “Gaining Information Advantage: The Workforce,” part of the “Future of the IC (intelligence community) Workforce,” with Scott Coltson, deputy director for mission services at the Defense Intelligence Agency; Christine Parker, senior strategist and acting senior adviser to the chief human capital officer at the National Security Agency; Pamela Hardy, director of diversity, equity, inclusion and belonging at QinetiQ US; and Lindy Kyzer, director of content and public relations at ClearanceJobs.com https://www.insaonline.org/detail-pages/event
5 p.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “The Case for an Australian National Security Strategy,” with William Inboden, executive director of the University of Texas at Austin’s Center for National Security; and Rory Medcalf, head of Australian National University’s National Security College https://www.csis.org/events/case-australian-national-security-strategy
TUESDAY | MAY 16
7 a.m. 7920 Jones Branch Dr., McLean, Virginia — Potomac Officers Club annual Chief Information Officers Summit, with Pentagon CIO John Sherman; and Lt. Gen. Mary O’Brien, director of C4 and cyber and chief information officer at Air Force J6 https://potomacofficersclub.com/events/poc-4th-annual-cio-summit/
10 a.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Committee “Member Day” hearing, with testimony from members of Congress on their national defense priorities for the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) for Fiscal Year 2024 https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings/full-committee
10 a.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE — Heritage Foundation discussion: “Naval Statecraft and Power in the 21st Century,” with former Navy Secretary Kenneth Braithwaite https://www.heritage.org/defense/event/naval-statecraft
12:30 p.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. NW — Hudson Institute discussion: “Defending Democracy,” with Taiwan Legislative Yuan President You Si-kun https://www.hudson.org/events/defending-democracy
2 p.m. 106 Dirksen — Senate Appropriations Committee hearing: “A Review of the President’s Fiscal Year 24 Budget Request: Investing in US Security, Competitiveness, and the Path Ahead for the U.S.-China Relationship,” with testimony from Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, Secretary of State Antony Blinken, and Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo https://www.appropriations.senate.gov/hearings
2 p.m — Henry Stimson Center virtual discussion: “Beyond the Washington Declaration: Prospects for the Future of Extended Deterrence,” focusing on North Korea and China, with Elaine Bunn, former deputy assistant defense secretary for nuclear and missile defense policy; retired Army Gen. Curtis Scaparrotti, former supreme NATO commander; Paul Bernstein, former fellow at National Defense University’s Center for the Study of Weapons of Mass Destruction; and Joel Wit, fellow in Asian and security studies at Stimson https://www.stimson.org/event/beyond-the-washington-declaration
4:45 p.m. EDT Honolulu, Hawaii — Association of U.S. Army 2023 LANPAC Symposium And Exposition, with Army Gen. James Dickinson, commander, U.S. Space Command, among others https://meetings.ausa.org/lanpac. Livestream at https://www.dvidshub.net
5 p.m. 1521 16th St. NW — Institute of World Politics lecture: “Maoist Revolutionary War Outside China,” with Christopher Harmon, fellow at the Marine Corps University’s Center for Innovation and Future Warfare https://www.iwp.edu/events/maoist-revolutionary-war-outside-china/
8:30 p.m. — Asia Society Policy Institute Australia virtual discussion: “The 2023 Quad Leaders’ Summit: What to Expect,” with Takako Hikotani, senior fellow at ASPI Tokyo; Richard Maude, senior fellow at ASPI Canberra; Raja Mohan, senior fellow at ASPI Delhi; Daniel Russel, vice president of international security and diplomacy at ASPI New York; and Dominique Fraser, research associate at ASPI Brisbane https://asiasociety.org/australia/events/2023-quad-leaders
WEDNESDAY | MAY 17
8 a.m. 410 National Business Pkwy., Annapolis Junction, Maryland — Intelligence and National Security Alliance virtual discussion: “Preparing for a Post-Quantum Future,” with Morgan Stern, cryptographic algorithms and assessments technical lead at the National Security Agency; Ajmer Dwivedi, NSA China quantum senior analyst; Moses Liskov, principal scientist at MITRE; Jen Sovada, president for the public sector at SandboxAQ; and John Doyon, INSA executive vice president. [This event is classified at the TS/SCI level]. https://tinyurl.com/4rhpxnnw
8:30 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “Australia’s New Defence Strategic Review,” with Angus Houston, former chief of Australia’s Defense Forces and co-author of the new Defense Strategic Review; and former Defense Secretary William Cohen, chairman of the Cohen Group https://www.csis.org/events/conversation
9 a.m. 529 14th St. NW — Atlantic Council and Applied Intuition two-day NEXUS 23 Symposium: “The Intersection of Defense, National Security, and Autonomy,” with Rep. Rob Wittman (R-VA); James Geurts, former assistant Navy Secretary for research, development and acquisition; and former Defense Secretary Mark Esper https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/nexus-23
9:30 a.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: “Turkish Elections: Takeaways and implications,” with Asli Aydintasbas, visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution’s Center on the United States and Europe; Soner Cagaptay, director of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy’s Turkish Research Program; and Alper Coskun, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s Europe Program https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/turkish-elections
10 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “Allied Burden Sharing in Ukraine,” with German Ambassador to the United States Emily Haber; Polish Ambassador to the United States Marek Magierowski; former Spanish Foreign Minister Ana Palacio; and former Georgian Foreign Minister Eka Tkeshelashvili https://www.csis.org/events/allied-burden-sharing-ukraine
10 a.m. — Korea Economic Institute of America discussion: “U.S.-ROK-Japan Trilateral Relations and Integrated Deterrence,” with Becca Wasser, senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security’s Defense Program; James Schoff, senior director of the Sasakawa Peace Foundation’s U.S.-Japan NEXT Alliance Initiative; and Bee Yun Jo, associate research fellow at the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses https://keia.org/event/us-rok-japan-trilateral-relations
12 p.m. — Hudson Institute in-person and virtual event: “The Next Move in Ukraine: A Conversation with Michael Pompeo,” with Peter Rough, senior fellow and director, Center on Europe and Eurasia https://www.hudson.org/events/next-move-ukraine
1 p.m. — Hudson Institute in-person and virtual event: “American National Security and the Russian-Iranian War on Ukraine: A Conversation with Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX),” with Michael Doran, senior fellow and director, Center for Peace and Security in the Middle East https://www.hudson.org/events/american-national-security-russian-iranian-war-ukraine-conversation-senator-ted-cruz
1:30 p.m. — Cipher Brief virtual conversation: “Thinking Like An Analyst In An Increasingly Complex World,” with Linda Weissgold, director of analysis, CIA https://www.thecipherbrief.com/expert-national-security-briefing-series
2 p.m. HVC-210 Capitol — House Foreign Affairs Committee hearing: “The State of American Influence in 2023: Great Power Competition and Persistent Crises in an Era of Budget Constraints,” with testimony from Samantha Power, administrator, U.S. Agency for International Development https://www.youtube.com/watch
2 p.m. 1619 Massachusetts Ave. NW — Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies discussion: “Russia’s Wagner Group: Decoding the Transnational Criminal Organization’s Growing Footprint in North Africa,” with Joshua Harris, deputy assistant secretary of state for near eastern affairs; and Andrea Cellino, executive in residence at the Geneva Center for Security Policy https://sais.jhu.edu/campus-events
7 p.m. 1310 Longworth — House Select Strategic Competition Between the United States and the Chinese Communist Party Committee hearing: “Leveling the Playing Field: How to Counter the Chinese Communist Party’s Economic Aggression,” with testimony from Robert Lighthizer, former U.S. trade representative; Roger Robinson, chairman of the Prague Security Studies Institute and former chairman of congressional U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission; and Eric Schmidt, chairman of the Special Competitive Studies Project https://selectcommitteeontheccp.house.gov/committee
THURSDAY | MAY 18
9 a.m. HVC-210, U.S. Capitol — House Foreign Affairs Indo-Pacific Subcommittee hearing: “Standing United Against the People’s Republic of China’s Economic Aggression and Predatory Practices,” with testimony from David Feith, adjunct senior fellow at the Center for New American Security; Alon Raphael, CEO of FemtoMetrix; Matthew Reynolds, fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies’s Economics Program; and Derek Scissors, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute https://foreignaffairs.house.gov/hearing/standing-united
9 a.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: “What Can the World Expect from Ukraine’s Counteroffensive?” with retired Army Gen. Wesley Clark, former supreme NATO commander; former Ukrainian Minister of Defense Andriy Zagorodnyuk, chairman of the Center for Defense Strategies; Andrea Kendall-Taylor, director of the Center for a New American Security’s Transatlantic Security Program; David Kramer, executive director of the George W. Bush Institute; and Vladimir Milov, vice president of international advocacy at the Free Russia Foundation https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/what-can-the-world-expect
9 a.m. — Atlantic Council and Applied Intuition two-day NEXUS 23 Symposium: “The Intersection of Defense, National Security, and Autonomy,” with Ellen Lord, former undersecretary of defense for acquisition and sustainment; and Lt. Gen. Christopher Donahue, commanding general of XVIII Airborne Corps and Fort Bragg https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/nexus-23/
10:30 a.m. 1401 Pennsylvania Ave. NW — Government Executive Media Group two-day Cyber Summit, with David McKeown, Defense Department deputy chief information officer for cybersecurity; David Forbes, director of cyber physical defense at Booz Allen Hamilton https://events.govexec.com/cyber-summit-2023
11 a.m. — Nuclear Threat Initiative virtual book discussion: Inheriting the Bomb: The Collapse of the USSR and the Nuclear Disarmament of Ukraine, with author Mariana Budjeryn, senior research associate at the Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center’s Project on Managing the Atom https://www.nti.org/events/nti-seminar-inheriting-the-bomb
FRIDAY | MAY 19
12 p.m. — Jewish Institute for National Security of America webinar: “Will He Stay or Will He Go? Turkey’s Elections and Erdogan’s Fate,” with Eric Edelman, counselor, JINSA’s Gemunder Center for Defense and Strategy; Alan Makovsky, member, JINSA’s Eastern Mediterranean Policy Project; and Blaise Misztal, JINSA vice president for policy https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register
QUOTE OF THE DAY “This is a crucial moment in Ukraine’s resistance to a terrible war of aggression they did not choose or provoke. They need the sustained support of the international community to defend against the barrage of unrelenting and indiscriminate attacks that have been their daily reality for over a year. We must not let them down.” British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, promising training for Ukrainian pilots to fly F-16s that would be secured from other NATO allies.