NATO military leaders meet as Putin mocked by commander of mercenary forces in Ukraine
Jamie McIntyre
‘OUR ARMY IS RUNNING’: The latest episode of Yevgeny Prigozhin’s social media feud with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s military commanders finds the Wagner Group boss complaining bitterly that while Putin was speaking about “Russian greatness” at yesterday’s Victory Day parade in Moscow, Russian troops were fleeing in Bakhmut.
In the latest in what has been a long-running series of video rebukes, Prigozhin claimed that troops from Russia’s 72nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade turned tail and ran, giving up a “strategic bridgehead, three square kilometers,” where Prigozhin said “about 500 of my guys died.”
Drone video released by Ukraine’s 3rd Assault Brigade showed what appeared to be Russian forces in full retreat in the face of an assault by Ukrainian tanks and infantry. In his rant, Progozhin warned that the front line is in danger of collapse in Bakhmut. “Our army is running,” he lamented. “Happy holiday,” he added, mockingly.
The battle for Bakhmut, once a city of 70,000 but now largely reduced to rubble, is the longest and bloodiest of the almost 15-month war.
PENTAGON ANNOUNCES $1.2 BILLION LONG-TERM MILITARY ASSISTANCE TO UKRAINE
PRIGOZHIN MOCKS PUTIN: “Prigozhin seized the Victory Day holiday as an opportunity to mock Putin and question his judgment. Prigozhin referred to a ‘happy grandfather’ figure who ‘thinks that he is good,’” according to the latest analysis from the Institute for the Study of War.
“Prigozhin then rhetorically asked what Russia and future generations should do and how Russia can win if the ‘grandfather’ turns out to be a ‘complete asshole.’ Prigozhin also noted that unnamed figures (likely referring to Putin and the senior Russian MoD figures) should stop showing off on Red Square.”
“Prigozhin’s escalating attacks on Putin may — if the Kremlin does not respond to Prigozhin’s thinly veiled criticism of Putin on Victory Day — further erode the norm in Putin’s system in which individual actors can jockey for position and influence (and drop in and out of Putin’s favor) but cannot directly criticize Putin,” the ISW suggested.
Prigozhin also claimed he has been told he will be charged with treason if, as he threatened, he pulled his forces out of Bakhmut. “Prigozhin likely expected the Russian MoD to entirely cave to his demands … but likely realized he cannot follow through with his ultimatum at this time,” the ISW said. “If true, indicates that Prigozhin does not have as much leverage within the Russian MoD as he imagined.”
WAGNER GROUP CHIEF MOCKS PUTIN’S VICTORY DAY CELEBRATION IN SIGN OF TENSIONS
PUTIN’S PUNY PARADE: In its daily Twitter update, the British Defense Ministry weighed in on yesterday’s noticeably scaled-down Victory Day parade in Red Square, led by a single Soviet-era antique tank, which it said “highlighted the materiel and strategic communications challenges the military is facing.”
“Over 8,000 personnel reportedly took part in the parade, but the majority were auxiliary, paramilitary forces, and cadets from military training establishments. The only personnel from deployable formations of regular forces were contingents of Railway Troops and military police,” the intelligence update said. “A vintage T-34 from a ceremonial unit was the sole tank on parade.’
“Despite heavy losses in Ukraine, Russia could have fielded more armored vehicles,” the assessment continued, speculating that “authorities likely refrained from doing so because they want to avoid domestic criticism about prioritizing parades over combat operations.”
PUTIN CLAIMS ‘REAL WAR’ BEING WAGED AGAINST RUSSIA IN SCALED DOWN VICTORY DAY PARADE
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HAPPENING TODAY: NATO’s Military Committee is meeting in Brussels today, the first gathering of senior generals and admirals since Finland joined the alliance. Supreme Allied Commander U.S. Gen. Christopher Cavoli is scheduled to hold a post-meeting news conference at 11:30 a.m. EDT, along with Dutch navy Adm. Rob Bauer, chairman, NATO Military Committee, and French Gen. Philippe Lavigne, Supreme Allied Commander Transformation.
The news conference will be livestreamed at https://www.nato.int/ and https://www.defense.gov/News/Live-Events
‘GOLIATH IS WAVERING’: In opening remarks at today’s meeting at NATO Headquarters, Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg warned that NATO nations must step up their defense spending, especially the more than 20 members who have yet to meet the 2% of GDP goal established in 2014.
“I expect that when our heads of state and government meet in Vilnius in July, they will agree to a new defense investment pledge, with 2% not as a ceiling we strive to reach but 2% of GDP as a minimum that we have to invest in our defense,” Stoltenberg said, also calling for increased production of munitions to support Ukraine and replenish NATO stocks.
“We are moving in the right direction, but not as fast as the dangerous world we live in demands. All of this requires political courage and the continued commitment of our military colleagues,” he added.
“Today’s discussions will first focus on Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine. Russia is in the 15th month of what they thought would be a three-day war,” said Bauer. “Goliath is wavering. And that is because David has shown immense resilience and tactical brilliance, supported by 50 nations around the world.”
UK’S CLEVERLY: ‘THIS IS NOT A FILM … THERE CAN BE NO GUARANTEES IN WAR’: British Foreign Secretary James Cleverly, in a visit to the State Department yesterday, cautioned that Ukraine’s allies have to be cleareyed about what realistically may be expected from the coming counteroffensive.
“What we’ve seen over and over again is that the Ukrainians, both politically and militarily, have learnt quickly, have been relentlessly focused on using the support that we give them effectively, and have consistently outperformed expectations, certainly the expectations of Vladimir Putin,” Cleverly said at a joint appearance with Secretary of State Antony Blinken.
“This is not just about Ukraine,” said Cleverly. “It is about us, and it is in our interest, as well as the Ukrainians’ interest, that we stay resolute in our support because it will become more painful and more expensive if we do not. … I think the message that we should send is that when we commit to something, we stick with it. We have the grit. We have the determination. We have the strategic endurance to see it through until its successful conclusion.”
“This is not a film. There are no certainties when it comes to conflict. The Ukrainians have consistently outperformed expectations, but there can be no guarantees in war,” he continued. “We need to continue to support them irrespective of whether this forthcoming offensive generates huge gains on the battlefield because until this conflict is resolved and resolved properly, it is not over.”
UK URGES US TO STICK WITH UKRAINE EVEN IF COUNTEROFFENSIVE IS UNSUCCESSFUL
PATRIOT KILL CONFIRMED: Without providing many details, the Pentagon backed up Ukraine’s claim that a Patriot air defense battery brought down a hypersonic missile fired at Kyiv by a Russian MiG-31 Saturday night.
“We can confirm that the Ukrainians took down this Russian missile with a Patriot missile defense system,” said Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder, Pentagon press secretary, at yesterday’s briefing, but when pressed, he referred reporters to the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense.
“I’m confirming a U.S. Patriot system is in Ukraine,” said Ryder, “but in terms of which specific battery they employed, whether it was a U.S.-provided, Dutch-provided, I’d refer you to the Ukrainians.”
Ukraine said that for the first time, it was able to shoot down one of Russia’s advanced hypersonic missiles thanks to the arrival of Patriot missile defenses, which Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov called “a new powerful tool of Ukrainian air defense.”
But Western experts noted the air-launched Kh-47 Kinzhal missile is not a transformational hypersonic weapon. Rather, it’s a conventional Iskander ballistic missile that’s modified to be fired from a fighter jet, which increases its range and payload.
“There’s nothing special or particularly exciting about this system,” tweeted Michael Kofman, director of the Russia Studies Program at the Center for Naval Analysis. “Iskander-M is a long standing system. Hundreds have been fired. Kinzhal is an air launched variant of this system. It uses the aircraft for added range and initial velocity. Otherwise it seems unremarkable. It is ‘hypersonic’ in the same way as many other ballistic missiles.”
PENTAGON CONFIRMS UKRAINE USED PATRIOT SYSTEM TO DOWN RUSSIAN HYPERSONIC MISSILE
The Rundown
Washington Examiner: UK urges US to stick with Ukraine even if counteroffensive is unsuccessful
Washington Examiner: Wagner Group chief mocks Putin’s Victory Day celebration in sign of tensions
Washington Examiner: Putin claims ‘real war’ being waged against Russia in scaled down Victory Day parade
Washington Examiner: Pentagon confirms Ukraine used Patriot system to down Russian hypersonic missile
Washington Examiner: Pentagon announces $1.2 billion long-term military assistance to Ukraine
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Calendar
WEDNESDAY | MAY 10
2:30 a.m. EDT Brussels, Belgium — NATO’s highest military authority, the Military Committee, meets in person at NATO Headquarters, with opening remarks by Dutch navy Adm. Rob Bauer, chairman, NATO Military Committee, and NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news
8:30 a.m. 1615 H St. NW — U.S. Chamber of Commerce 13th annual China Business Conference, with Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-AK); Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-MD); Ely Ratner, assistant defense secretary for indo-pacific security affairs; Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-WI); and Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-IL). “All sessions in this conference are off the record and not open to the press, unless otherwise specified.” https://events.uschamber.com/cbc2023/3350490 Full agenda at https://image.uschamber.com
9 a.m. — House Armed Services Committee staff gives bipartisan virtual background briefings for journalists ahead of subcommittee markups for the fiscal 2024 National Defense Authorization Act. 9 a.m. Military Personnel Subcommittee; 10 a.m. Tactical Air and Land Forces Subcommittee; 11 a.m. Intelligence and Special Operations Subcommittee; 12 p.m. Readiness Subcommittee; and 4 p.m. Seapower and Projection Forces Subcommittee. RSVP: [email protected]
9:30 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies conference call briefing for journalists: “Previewing Quad Leaders’ Summit in Sydney,” with Charles Edel, CSIS Australia chairman; Nicholas Szechenyi, CSIS Japan chairman; Richard Rossow, CSIS chairman in U.S.-India policy studies; and Erin Murphy, deputy director of the CSIS Economics Program. RVSP: Andrew Schwartz [email protected]
9:45 a.m. 419 Dirksen — Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing: “Conflict in Sudan: Options for an Effective Policy Response,” with testimony from Victoria Nuland, undersecretary of state for political affairs; and Sarah Charles, assistant to the administrator, Bureau of Humanitarian Assistance, U.S. Agency for International Development https://www.foreign.senate.gov/hearings
10 a.m. — House Foreign Affairs Committee hearing: “Modernizing U.S. Arms Exports and a Stronger AUKUS,” with testimony from Jessica Lewis, assistant secretary of state for political-military affairs, and Mara Karlin, assistant defense secretary for strategies, plans, and capabilities https://foreignaffairs.house.gov/hearing/modernizing-u-s-arms-exports
10 a.m. — Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies “Schriever Spacepower Series,” with Maj. Gen. Shawn Bratton, commander, Space Training and Readiness Command https://mitchellaerospacepower.org/event/5-10
11:30 a.m. EDT Brussels, Belgium — Press conference with Dutch navy Adm. Rob Bauer, chairman, NATO Military Committee; NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg; U.S. Army Gen. Christopher Cavoli, supreme allied commander Europe; and French Gen. Philippe Lavigne, supreme allied commander transformation https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news
2 p.m. 310 Cannon — House Homeland Security Transportation and Maritime Security Subcommittee hearing: “Evaluating High-Risk Security Vulnerabilities at our Nation’s Ports,” with testimony from Rear Adm. Wayne Arguin, assistant Coast Guard commandant for prevention policy; Eric Goldstein, executive assistant director for cybersecurity at the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency; and Neal Latta, assistant administrator for enrollment services and vetting programs at the Transportation Security Administration https://homeland.house.gov
2 p.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies and the Secure World Foundation virtual discussion: “A Contested Domain: From Space Theory to Practice,” Air Force Maj. Gen. Shawn Bratton, commander of U.S. Space Force’s Space Training and Readiness Command; Victoria Samson, director of the Secure World Foundation’s Washington Office; Brian Weeden, director of program planning at the Secure World Foundation; Kaitlyn Johnson, deputy director of the CSIS Aerospace Security Project; and Makena Young, associate fellow at the CSIS Aerospace Security Project https://www.csis.org/events/contested-domain-space-theory-practice
2:30 p.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW — Brookings Institution in-person/virtual discussion:: “The U.S. Coast Guard in an increasingly complex world,” with testimony from Adm. Linda Fagan, Coast Guard commandant, and Melanie Sisson, fellow, Strobe Talbott Center for Security, Strategy, and Technology, Brookings https://connect.brookings.edu/register-to-watch-us-coast-guard
THURSDAY | MAY 11
8:30 a.m. — Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association annual U.S. Marine Corps IT Day forum, with Lt. Gen. Matthew Glavy, Marine Corps deputy commandant for information, and Louis Koplin, deputy chief technology officer on the Navy Department’s Chief Information Office https://www.afcea-qp.org/usmc-it-day/usmc-it-day-2023
9 a.m. 124 Dirksen — Senate Appropriations Defense Subcommittee hearing: “A Review of the President’s Fiscal Year 2024 Budget Request for the Department of Defense,” with testimony from Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Mark Milley https://www.appropriations.senate.gov/hearings
10 a.m. 2154 Rayburn — House Oversight and Accountability National Security, the Border, and Foreign Affairs Subcommittee hearing: “Strengthening the Fleet: Challenges and Solutions in Naval Surface Ship Construction,” with testimony from Rear Adm. Thomas Anderson, program executive officer for ships, and Rear Adm. Casey Moton, program executive officer for unmanned and small combatants http://oversight.house.gov
1 p.m. — National Defense Industrial Association virtual forum on the launch of a report: “Hypersonics Supply Chains: Securing the Path to the Future,” with Rep. Doug Lamborn (R-CO) and Charles Ormsby, chief of the Air Force Research Laboratory’s Manufacturing and Industrial Technologies Division. RSVP: [email protected]
5:30 p.m. 1250 S Hayes St., Arlington, Virginia — Intelligence and National Security Alliance discussion: with Lt. Gen. Scott Berrier, director, Defense Intelligence Agency. https://www.insaonline.org/detail-pages/event
FRIDAY | MAY 12
12 p.m. — Washington Institute for Near East Policy virtual discussion: “Turkey’s Historic May 14 Elections: What to Expect,” with Seren Selvin Korkmaz, executive director of IstanPol; Emre Peker, director for Europe at the Eurasia Group; Ragip Soylu, Turkey bureau chief at Middle East Eye; and Soner Cagaptay, director of the WINEP Turkish Research Program https://washingtoninstitute-org.zoom.us/webinar/register
12 p.m. 1000 Massachusetts Ave. NW — Cato Institute discussion: on “Turkey’s Centennial Election: What Is at Stake?” with Gonul Tol, director of the Middle East Institute’s Center for Turkish Studies; Ian Vasquez, vice president for international studies at Cato; and Mustafa Akyol, senior fellow at the Cato Center for Global Liberty and Prosperity https://www.cato.org/events/turkeys-centennial-election-what-stake
12:30 p.m. 1957 E St. NW — George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs discussion: on “Cross-Strait Relations and U.S. Strategy at a Crossroad?” with Joel Wuthnow, senior research fellow at National Defense University’s Center for the Study of Chinese Military Affairs; Rosalie Chen, assistant professor at Dominican University of California; and John Dotson, deputy director of the Global Taiwan Institute https://calendar.gwu.edu/event/taiwan_roundtable
QUOTE OF THE DAY “Russia is in the 15th month of what they thought would be a three-day war. Goliath is wavering. And that is because David has shown immense resilience and tactical brilliance, supported by 50 nations around the world.” Dutch navy Adm. Rob Bauer, chairman, NATO Military Committee, in opening remarks at a meeting of the NATO Military Committee