Wagner mercenaries staying put in Bakhmut for now after ‘blackmail’ ultimatum
Jamie McIntyre
MERCENARIES TO REMAIN IN BAKHMUT: Despite the threat of Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin to pull his mercenary and penal forces out of the battle for Bakhmut, it appears he’ll be staying after extracting a promise for more ammunition from the Russian defense ministry, along with assurances he’ll have a free hand to do what he pleases.
The Russian Defense Ministry had cut back the supply of artillery shells to Prigozhin’s forces in an apparent effort to conserve limited stocks ahead of Ukraine’s planned counteroffensive, now expected in early summer.
But Prigozhin’s profanity-laced rant that went viral, in which he blamed the deaths of many of his forces, apparently forced the hand of Gen. Valery Gerasimov, the chief of staff and overall commander of Russian forces, according to an assessment by the Institute for the Study of War.
“Prigozhin and [Chechen leader Ramzan] Kadyrov likely effectively blackmailed the Russian MoD into allocating resources to Wagner forces in Bakhmut by threatening to pull Kadyrov’s Chechen forces from other parts of the theater to relieve Wagner forces in Bakhmut,” the ISW said. “Kadyrov’s and Prigozhin’s apparently successful joint blackmail efforts further indicate that Gerasimov does not actually control all the Russian forces in Ukraine, despite being the nominal theater commander.”
UKRAINE SHOULD ‘DOUBLE DOWN’ AMID RUSSIAN RIFT WITH MERCENARY LEADER, AMBASSADOR URGES
RUSSIA’S MANPOWER SHORTAGE CONTINUES: Russian President Vladimir Putin is desperate to avoid another round of mandatory conscription to fill the ranks of his diminished army, with military recruiters targeting Central Asian migrant workers in Russia to serve in Ukraine, according to British intelligence.
“Recruiting migrants is part of the Russian Ministry of Defence’s attempts to fulfill its target of 400,000 volunteers to fight in Ukraine,” the British Defense Ministry said in its daily Twitter update. “The authorities are almost certainly seeking to delay any new overt mandatory mobilization for as long as possible to minimize domestic dissent.”
Over the week, the U.K. Defense Ministry reported that Russia is also facing its worst domestic labor shortage in decades, with the number of available workers at its lowest level since 1998.
“The Russian Ministry of Communications said that about 10% (100,000) of the IT workforce left the country in 2022 and did not return,” the ministry said. “Russia saw up to 1.3 million people leave the country in 2022, including many younger and well-educated people in high-value industries. … This will likely lead to a reduction in the potential growth of the Russian economy and risks stoking inflation.”
ANOTHER NIGHT OF DRONE AND MISSILE ATTACKS: Russian launched another wave of drone attacks across Ukraine overnight, according to the Ukrainian General Staff, which claimed it shot down 100% of Iranian-made drones.
“At night, May 8, 2023, the enemy again attacked the territory of Ukraine, using Iranian strikes ‘Shahed.’ 35 out of 35 drones were destroyed by our defenders,” spokesman Andrei Kovalev said on Facebook.
The drone strikes were accompanied by 16 missile strikes and more than 60 attacks from aircraft, the General Staff said. “Unfortunately, there are killed and injured among civilians. High-rise buildings, private dwellings, and other civil infrastructure are damaged.
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HAPPENING TOMORROW: Moscow is set to celebrate Victory Day, its most revered secular holiday, which marks the 78th anniversary of the defeat of Nazi Germany by the Red Army in World War II, even as smaller May 9 celebrations around Russia have been canceled for fear they could be targets of attack.
Putin will appear remotely on giant television screens in Red Square as a security precaution following Russia’s disputed accusation that Ukraine attempted to assassinate the Russian leader in a strike by two small drones on the Kremlin last Wednesday.
PATRIOT GAME-CHANGER? On Saturday, Ukraine claimed to have shot down a hypersonic Kh-47 missile Kinzhal over Kyiv with a U.S.-supplied Patriot missile defense system, which if confirmed would be the first kill of a hypersonic weapon by a Patriot missile battery in combat.
“Russian propaganda attempts to impose the narrative that Russian weapons are the best in the world and one-of-a-kind,” tweeted Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov. “That‘s a big mistake. The Patriot system, a new powerful tool of Ukrainian air defense, shot down a Kh-47 hypersonic aeroballistic missile launched by Russian war criminals at our country.”
“Previously, we had no way of destroying such targets, but with the support of our friends the impossible becomes possible!” Reznikov said.
Russia has boasted that the air-launched Kinzhal, which has a range of 2,000 miles and flies at 10 times the speed of sound, is nearing impossible to defend against. Ukraine said the standoff missile was launched by a MiG-31 aircraft flying over Russian territory to avoid Ukraine’s air defenses.
A NOTE OF CAUTION: “The weapon has a checkered past,” wrote longtime arms control advocate Joe Cirincione, who was part of the investigation of inflated claims of the Patriot’s success during Operation Desert Storm.
The 1990s version of the Patriot was “highly and baselessly lauded during the 1991 Gulf War,” Cirincione tweeted. “Now, as upgraded Patriots take the battlefield again, U.S. officials must judge how they fare — accurately, this time.”
“In 1991, U.S. officials and media excitedly reported a 100-percent success rate for the system, with claims that Patriots had intercepted Scud missiles launched from Iraq at Israel and Saudi Arabia. But the following year, Congressional hearings found that these claims were misleading and highly inaccurate,” Cirincione wrote in an essay on Defense One. “Rather than destroying 41 of 42 Scuds engaged, as President George H.W. Bush claimed at the end of the war, investigators from the Congressional Research Service and the General Accounting Office determined that Patriots only hit between zero and four of 44 Scuds engaged.”
“Most people likely still think the Patriot worked near perfectly. The same pressures to promote the system’s performance may be operating in this war. We must do better,” Cirincione wrote on Twitter. But he also noted that the Patriot system fielded today is much improved over the 1990s version that was originally optimized to shoot down aircraft, not intercept missiles.
“The PAC-3 should do much better,” he said. “We have to see the evidence backing that up, but it may be promising.”
LOWERING EXPECTATIONS: In an interview with the Washington Post, Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov expressed concern that there may be unrealistic expectations for the next offensive based on Ukraine’s surprising battlefield success this far in the more than yearlong war.
“The expectation from our counteroffensive campaign is overestimated in the world,” Reznikov said last week. “Most people are … waiting for something huge,” which he told the newspaper may lead to “emotional disappointment.”
Reznikov said Ukraine is a victim of its own success and that early victories have fueled a hype around what’s to come. “We inspired everywhere because the perception was that we will fall during 72 hours,” Reznikov said. But as for what the counteroffensive will achieve, he can’t predict. “I cannot tell you what the scale of this success would be. Ten kilometers, 30 kilometers, 100 kilometers, 200 kilometers?”
President Volodymyr Zelensky admitted in the session with the Washington Post reporters at his heavily fortified headquarters building in Kyiv that Ukraine needs a clear success to demonstrate that it deserves continued military support from its allies. “I believe that the more victories we have on the battlefield, frankly, the more people will believe in us, which means we will get more help.”
BLINKEN IN CONTEMPT? The patience of Rep. Michael McCaul (R-TX) has been exhausted, and the chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee is ready to hold Secretary of State Antony Blinken in contempt for his refusal to comply with the committee subpoena for internal communications relating to the fall of Kabul in 2021.
“McCaul is fed up with Blinken repeatedly refusing to hand over an internal dissent cable that was signed by two dozen U.S. Embassy members in Kabul and sent to the State Department in mid-July 2021, just over a month before the Taliban took Kabul,” reported Washington Examiner Justice Department reporter Jerry Dunleavy.
McCaul said the Biden administration has been stonewalling his investigation into the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan, which ended with a Taliban takeover, hundreds of Americans and thousands of Afghan allies left behind, and 13 U.S. service members killed in an ISIS-K suicide bombing.
To hold Blinken in contempt of Congress would require a vote by the full House, Dunleavy reported. “If passed, Blinken would be the first Biden administration official to be held in contempt since the GOP took control of the House in January.” The contempt charge would be forwarded to the Justice Department, which would have to decide whether to charge Blinken with a misdemeanor that carries a sentence of up to a year in prison.
KISSINGER ON AI: As he approaches his 100th birthday on May 27, former Secretary of State and national security adviser Henry Kissinger is warning that the perils of artificial intelligence rival the threat of nuclear weapons during the Cold War.
Kissinger has written a book, The Age of AI: And Our Human Future, along with Eric Schmidt, former chief executive of Google and chairman of the congressionally appointed National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence, and Daniel Huttenlocher.
Hard of hearing and blind in one eye, Kissinger is still mentally sharp as ever, and in a CBS Sunday Morning interview, he told correspondent Ted Koppel that AI or “machine learning” poses a unique threat to mankind.
“In relying on the answer, we cannot double-check it because we cannot review all the knowledge that the machine has acquired. We are giving it that knowledge. But this will be one of the big debates. I am now trying to do what I did with respect to nuclear weapons — to call attention to the importance of the impact of this evolution,” Kissinger said.
“But you know there will also be an artificial intelligence arms race,” said Koppel.
“Yes, but it’s going to be different,” Kissinger replied. “Because in the previous arms races, you could develop plausible theories about how you might prevail. It’s a totally new problem intellectually.”
AI RACE: THE EXPANDING LIST OF SERIOUS COMPETITORS TO CHATGPT
The Rundown
Washington Examiner: Ukraine should ‘double down’ amid Russian rift with mercenary leader, ambassador urges
Washington Examiner: Lavrov warns Russia will respond to alleged assassination attempt with ‘concrete actions’
Washington Examiner: Russian mercenary leader threatens to pull forces from Bakhmut: ‘Lick our wounds’
Washington Examiner: Biden to tap Air Force chief as next chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff: Report
Washington Examiner: Blinken faces contempt of Congress for defying Afghanistan dissent cable subpoena
Washington Examiner: Tweet from FBI leads to identification of Jan. 6 rioter
Washington Examiner: Opinion: China uses Macron’s ‘strategic autonomy’ narrative to warn neighbors against US friendship
Washington Examiner: Why hasn’t Canada expelled the Chinese ambassador?
Washington Examiner: An Afghanistan War veteran reviews The Covenant
AP: War shadows Victory Day, Russia’s integral holiday
Wall Street Journal: West Sees Role For Beijing In Ending Ukraine Conflict
Reuters: China Says Imperative To Stabilise Sino-U.S. Relations
Bloomberg: US Prepares to Fast Track $500 Million of Arms for Taiwan
AP: Worries Grow About Ukraine Nuke Plant Amid Evacuations
AP: Turkey’s opposition denounces fairness of vote under Erdogan
Washington Post: Iran Hid Arms In Its Aid, File Says
Stars and Stripes: Revived Alliance Brings U.S. Forces Back To Subic Bay In The Philippines
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Long-Delayed Nuclear Modernization More Important Than Ever, AFGSC Boss Says
Breaking Defense: In A Rare Move, House Oversight Lawmakers To Hear From Navy Program Executives On Shipbuilding
Defense Daily: Navy Starts Second Unmanned Exercise For Pacific Fleet
Breaking Defense: Space Force Wants Key Allies to Join 24/7 GPS Ops Center
Space News: DOD Spending on Commercial Space Services Negligible, Despite Growing Space Force Budget
Air & Space Forces Magazine: What You Need to Know About Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr., Likely Next Chairman of the Joint Chiefs
Air & Space Forces Magazine: 51 USAF Job Specialties Qualify for up to $100k Bonuses — What You Need to Know
Air Force Times: F-16 Fighting Falcon Fighter Crashes in South Korea; Pilot Safe
Colorado Springs Gazette: Biden to Return as US Air Force Academy Commencement Speaker
19fortyfive.com: Why Nobody Wants To Give Peace A Chance In Ukraine
The Cipher Brief: The Consequences of Success and Failure for Ukraine’s Counteroffensive
The Cipher Brief: The Middle East is Rebalancing: Where Do America and China Fit In?
Calendar
MONDAY | MAY 8
11 a.m. 1750 Independence Ave. SW — Friends of the National World War II Memorial and the National Park Service wreath-laying ceremony to mark the 78th anniversary of the Allied victory in Europe, with Ukrainian Ambassador to the U.S. Oksana Markarova; Jeff Reinbold, superintendent of the National Mall and Memorial Parks; U.K. navy Commodore Roger Readwin; Jane Droppa, chairwoman of the Friends of the National World War II Memorial; and Lt. Col. William Horton, chaplain of the Military District of Washington https://www.wwiimemorialfriends.org/ceremony-registration
6 p.m. — Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft virtual discussion: “What Role Will Australia Play in U.S.-China Competition?” with Bec Strating, associate professor at La Trobe University; Hugh White, professor at Australian National University; Sam Roggeveen, director of the Lowy Institute’s International Security Program; and Sarang Shidore, director of studies at the Quincy Institute https://quincyinst.org/event/what-role-will-australia-play
TUESDAY | MAY 9
9:30 a.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: “The United Kingdom’s role in an increasingly adversarial world,” with U.K. Foreign Secretary James Cleverly https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/a-conversation-with-uk-foreign-secretary
9:30 a.m. 14th St. and F St. NW — National Press Club “Headliners Newsmaker” event with Japanese Ambassador to the U.S. Koji Tomita on “issues for the upcoming G7 Hiroshima Summit” https://www.press.org/events/npc-headliners
10 a.m. 1030 15th St. NW — Atlantic Council discussion: “Security, Freedom, and Prosperity in Eastern Europe,” with NATO Deputy Secretary General Mircea Geoana https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/natos-mircea-geoana-on-security-freedom-and-prosperity-in-eastern-europe/
1 p.m. — House Armed Services Committee staff bipartisan virtual background briefings for journalists ahead of subcommittee markups for the fiscal 2024 National Defense Authorization Act. 1 p.m. Cyber, Information Technologies, and Innovation Subcommittee; and 4:30 p.m. Strategic Forces Subcommittee RSVP to [email protected]
1:30 p.m. 1957 E St. NW — George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs discussion: “Finland as a NATO Member: Implications for the Alliance and Northern European Security,” with Mika Aaltola, director of the Finnish Institute of International Affairs https://calendar.gwu.edu/event/finland
6:30 p.m. 950 New York Ave. NW — 2023 Freedom House Annual Awards dinner to recognize leaders who have championed freedom and democracy, including imprisoned Russian Opposition Leader Vladimir Kara-Murza, the women of Iran, and U.S. Ambassador to Liberia Michael McCarthy, with House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Michael McCaul (R-TX); Secretary of State Antony Blinken; former Rep. Jane Harman (D-CA), chairwoman of the Freedom House Board of Trustees and president emerita of the Wilson Center; Jason Rezaian, global opinions writer at the Washington Post; actress and activist Nazanin Boniadi; and singer-songwriter Shawn Colvin https://freedomhouse.org/event/freedom-house
WEDNESDAY | MAY 10
2:30 a.m. EDT Brussels, Belgium — NATO’s highest military authority, the Military Committee, meets in person at NATO Headquarters, with opening remarks by Dutch navy Adm. Rob Bauer, chairman, NATO Military Committee, and NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news
8:30 a.m. 1615 H St. NW — U.S. Chamber of Commerce 13th annual China Business Conference, with Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-AK); Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-MD); Ely Ratner, assistant defense secretary for indo-pacific security affairs; Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-WI); and Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-IL). “All sessions in this conference are off the record and not open to the press, unless otherwise specified.” https://events.uschamber.com/cbc2023/3350490 Full agenda at https://image.uschamber.com
9 a.m. — House Armed Services Committee staff gives bipartisan virtual background briefings for journalists ahead of subcommittee markups for the fiscal 2024 National Defense Authorization Act. 9 a.m. Military Personnel Subcommittee; 10 a.m. Tactical Air and Land Forces Subcommittee; 11 a.m. Intelligence and Special Operations Subcommittee; 12 p.m. Readiness Subcommittee; and 4 p.m. Seapower and Projection Forces Subcommittee. RSVP: [email protected]
10 a.m. — House Foreign Affairs Committee hearing: “Modernizing U.S. Arms Exports and a Stronger AUKUS,” with testimony from Jessica Lewis, assistant secretary of state for political-military affairs, and Mara Karlin, assistant defense secretary for strategies, plans, and capabilities https://foreignaffairs.house.gov/hearing/modernizing-u-s-arms-exports
10 a.m. — Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies “Schriever Spacepower Series,” with Maj. Gen. Shawn Bratton, commander, Space Training and Readiness Command https://mitchellaerospacepower.org/event/5-10
11:30 a.m. EDT Brussels, Belgium — Press conference with Dutch navy Adm. Rob Bauer, chairman, NATO Military Committee; NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg; U.S. Army Gen. Christopher Cavoli, supreme allied commander Europe; and French Gen. Philippe Lavigne, supreme allied commander transformation https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news
2 p.m. 310 Cannon — House Homeland Security Transportation and Maritime Security Subcommittee hearing: “Evaluating High-Risk Security Vulnerabilities at our Nation’s Ports,” with testimony from Rear Adm. Wayne Arguin, assistant Coast Guard commandant for prevention policy; Eric Goldstein, executive assistant director for cybersecurity at the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency; and Neal Latta, assistant administrator for enrollment services and vetting programs at the Transportation Security Administration https://homeland.house.gov
2 p.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies and the Secure World Foundation virtual discussion: “A Contested Domain: From Space Theory to Practice,” Air Force Maj. Gen. Shawn Bratton, commander of U.S. Space Force’s Space Training and Readiness Command; Victoria Samson, director of the Secure World Foundation’s Washington Office; Brian Weeden, director of program planning at the Secure World Foundation; Kaitlyn Johnson, deputy director of the CSIS Aerospace Security Project; and Makena Young, associate fellow at the CSIS Aerospace Security Project https://www.csis.org/events/contested-domain-space-theory-practice
2:30 p.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW — Brookings Institution in-person/virtual discussion:: “The U.S. Coast Guard in an increasingly complex world,” with testimony from Adm. Linda Fagan, Coast Guard commandant, and Melanie Sisson, fellow, Strobe Talbott Center for Security, Strategy, and Technology, Brookings https://connect.brookings.edu/register-to-watch-us-coast-guard
THURSDAY | MAY 11
8:30 a.m. — Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association annual U.S. Marine Corps IT Day forum, with Lt. Gen. Matthew Glavy, Marine Corps deputy commandant for information, and Louis Koplin, deputy chief technology officer on the Navy Department’s Chief Information Office https://www.afcea-qp.org/usmc-it-day/usmc-it-day-2023
9 a.m. 124 Dirksen — Senate Appropriations Defense Subcommittee hearing: “A Review of the President’s Fiscal Year 2024 Budget Request for the Department of Defense,” with testimony from Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Mark Milley https://www.appropriations.senate.gov/hearings
10 a.m. 2154 Rayburn — House Oversight and Accountability National Security, the Border, and Foreign Affairs Subcommittee hearing: “Strengthening the Fleet: Challenges and Solutions in Naval Surface Ship Construction,” with testimony from Rear Adm. Thomas Anderson, program executive officer for ships, and Rear Adm. Casey Moton, program executive officer for unmanned and small combatants http://oversight.house.gov
1 p.m. — National Defense Industrial Association virtual forum on the launch of a report: “Hypersonics Supply Chains: Securing the Path to the Future,” with Rep. Doug Lamborn (R-CO) and Charles Ormsby, chief of the Air Force Research Laboratory’s Manufacturing and Industrial Technologies Division. RSVP: [email protected]
5:30 p.m. 1250 S Hayes St., Arlington, Virginia — Intelligence and National Security Alliance discussion: with Lt. Gen. Scott Berrier, director, Defense Intelligence Agency. https://www.insaonline.org/detail-pages/event
FRIDAY | MAY 12
12 p.m. — Washington Institute for Near East Policy virtual discussion: “Turkey’s Historic May 14 Elections: What to Expect,” with Seren Selvin Korkmaz, executive director of IstanPol; Emre Peker, director for Europe at the Eurasia Group; Ragip Soylu, Turkey bureau chief at Middle East Eye; and Soner Cagaptay, director of the WINEP Turkish Research Program https://washingtoninstitute-org.zoom.us/webinar/register
12 p.m. 1000 Massachusetts Ave. NW — Cato Institute discussion: on “Turkey’s Centennial Election: What Is at Stake?” with Gonul Tol, director of the Middle East Institute’s Center for Turkish Studies; Ian Vasquez, vice president for international studies at Cato; and Mustafa Akyol, senior fellow at the Cato Center for Global Liberty and Prosperity https://www.cato.org/events/turkeys-centennial-election-what-stake
12:30 p.m. 1957 E St. NW — George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs discussion: on “Cross-Strait Relations and U.S. Strategy at a Crossroad?” with Joel Wuthnow, senior research fellow at National Defense University’s Center for the Study of Chinese Military Affairs; Rosalie Chen, assistant professor at Dominican University of California; and John Dotson, deputy director of the Global Taiwan Institute https://calendar.gwu.edu/event/taiwan_roundtable
QUOTE OF THE DAY “The expectation from our counteroffensive campaign is overestimated in the world. … Most people are … waiting for something huge,” which may lead to “emotional disappointment.” Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov, in an interview with the Washington Post about unrealistic expectations for the coming Ukrainian counteroffensive