After a year of war, Russia’s ‘New Look’ army is gone
Jamie McIntyre
‘NEW LOOK’ ARMY NO MORE: Just before Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine in February of last year, the International Institute for Strategic Studies, publisher of the authoritative Military Balance, rated Russia’s military “far more capable” than at any time since the dissolution of the Soviet Union. The assessment was based on Russia’s “New Look” modernization program that overhauled Russia’s military structure after its poor performance in Georgia in 2008.
Now, according to the Pentagon’s intelligence chief, the war in Ukraine has decimated the supposedly revamped army. “For the Russian military, 2022 is not a good year. The ‘New Look’ army is gone,” Lt. Gen. Scott Berrier, Defense Intelligence Agency director, told the Senate Armed Services Committee yesterday.
“The reorganization that the Russian military took in the early 2000s meant that they would be better, faster, smaller, if you will, from what they were in the Soviet era,” Berrier testified. “That army largely is gone, and they’re relying on reserves and reserve equipment, older Soviet-era kinds of kit.”
Berrier said that once the war is over, it will likely take Russia years to reconstitute its army. “The estimates go from five to 10 years based on how sanctions affect them and their ability to put technology back into their force.”
THE LOOMING COUNTEROFFENSIVE: Briefing the committee in open and closed sessions, Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines described the current fighting in the east around Bakhmut and Avdiivka as a “brutally grinding war of attrition in which neither military has a definitive advantage, with day-to-day fighting over hundreds of meters.”
“Both sides are focusing on preparations for a potential Ukrainian counteroffensive this spring or summer,” Haines testified. “Russian forces gained less territory in April than during any of the three previous months, as they appear to transition from offensive to defensive operations along the front lines. … Ukrainian armed forces are still finalizing the specific priorities, timing, and scale of the offensive.”
“But even if Ukraine’s counteroffensive is not fully successful, the Russians are unlikely to be able to mount a significant offensive operation this year. In fact, if Russia does not initiate a mandatory mobilization and secure substantial third-party ammunition supplies beyond existing deliveries from Iran and others, it will be increasingly challenging for them to sustain even modest offensive operations.”
The intelligence chiefs said they continue to assess that Russian President Vladimir Putin believes his best bet is to prolong the war as long as possible. “In my view, we are at a particularly dangerous place with Russia,” said Berrier. “Putin is not seeking an off-ramp, and Moscow has asserted publicly that it remains committed to achieving its objectives in Ukraine through military force.
RUSSIA ‘UNLIKELY TO BE ABLE’ TO CONDUCT A ‘SIGNIFICANT OFFENSIVE’ THIS YEAR, US SPY CHIEF SAYS
A VERY PUBLIC SPAT: U.S. intelligence confirmed front-line reports that Russian forces are facing significant shortfalls in munitions, which was underscored yesterday in a viral video in which Yevgeny Prigozhin, leader of the Wagner Group mercenary force, rails against the Russian Defense Ministry in a profanity-laced rant about the lack of ammunition.
In the video, a visibly angry Prigozhin points to rows of dead soldiers lined up on the ground behind him and says, “They died today. Their blood is still fresh,” as the camera pans over the gruesome scene.
“Now listen to me, b****es. F***. They are someone’s f***ing fathers and someone’s sons. And those scum who don’t give us ammo will burn in hell,” he yells into the camera. “We lack 70% of ammo. Shoigu, Gerasimov, where are the f***ing munitions?” referring to Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of General Staff Valery Gerasimov.
Later in the day, Prigozhin threatened to pull his Wagner forces out of Bakhmut “because in the absence of ammunition, they’re doomed to perish senselessly.”
“I declare on behalf of the Wagner fighters, on behalf of the Wagner command, that on May 10, 2023, we are obliged to transfer positions in the settlement of Bakhmut to units of the defense ministry and withdraw the remains of Wagner to logistics camps to lick our wounds,” Prigozhin said in a statement.
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HAPPENING TODAY: Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin meets at the Pentagon with Polish Deputy Prime Minister and Defense Minister Mariusz Blaszczak at 11 a.m.
DID BIDEN TIP HIS HAND? There was a telling moment at Wednesday night’s White House dinner for the joint chiefs and military combatant commanders. President Joe Biden was toasting the four-stars and giving well wishes to those who would be retiring soon.
“Together, we face new challenges, complex threats, and you’ve remained unflinching — unflinching — in your pride, your purpose, and your passion,” Biden said, acknowledging those who will be leaving in the coming months.
“Gen. [Mark] Milley, who I really will miss. He’s one of the best I think I’ve ever served, been with,” he said. “Gen. [David] Berger, the Marines are going to be missing you, pal. And Gen. [James] McConville, Adm. [Michael] Gilday, Gen. [Glen] VanHerck, and Gen. [James] Dickinson.”
Berger, Marine Corps commandant, was widely rumored to be on the short list, along with Air Force chief of staff Gen. Charles Q. Brown, to be the next chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Biden said the Marines will be missing him, but he seemed to be hinting Berger would be retiring, not getting a promotion.
Meanwhile, Politico, citing “three people familiar with the discussion,” reported Biden is expected to nominate Brown, the first black person to be a service chief, to succeed Milley.
‘FEW THINGS AS IRRESPONSIBLE AND UNCARING’: In a letter to Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), the previous seven defense secretaries urged the hold on more than 200 military promotions be dropped.
The letter did not mention Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-AL) by name, but it said the hold he has put on nominations in an attempt to force the Pentagon to end its policy of giving leave and reimbursing travel expenses for abortions “is harming military readiness, risks damaging U.S. national security,” and “sends the wrong message to our adversaries and could weaken our deterrence.”
“We appreciate that Senators can have sincere and legitimate concerns about a Pentagon policy, including as it may relate to broader domestic or social issues,” the former secretaries wrote. “However, we believe placing a hold on all uniformed nominees risks turning military officers into political pawns, holding them responsible for a policy decision made by their civilian leaders.”
“There are also real-world impacts on the families of these senior officers. Most cannot move and resettle their families; their children cannot enroll at their next schools on time; and spouses cannot start new jobs at the next duty station. We can think of few things as irresponsible and uncaring as harming the families of those who serve our nation in uniform.”
The letter is signed by Secretaries Mark Esper, Jim Mattis, Chuck Hagel, Robert Gates, Leon Panetta, William Cohen, and William Perry.
‘PESKOV IS LYING’: The White House is flatly rejecting the accusation from Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov that Ukraine carried out yesterday’s drone strike on a Kremlin building on orders from the United States.
“We know very well that decisions on such actions and such terrorist attacks are made not in Kyiv but in Washington,” Peskov said. “Attempts to disown this both in Kyiv and in Washington are, of course, absolutely ridiculous.”
“I would just tell you Mr. Peskov’s lying. I mean, that’s obviously a ludicrous claim,” National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said in response to the accusation. “The United States had nothing to do with this. We don’t even know exactly what happened here,” he told CNN. “But I can assure you the United States had no role in it whatsoever.
“And again, just to be clear … we neither encourage nor do we enable Ukraine to strike outside Ukraine’s borders,” Kirby said. “We do not endorse, we do not encourage, we do not support attacks on individual leaders.”
US UNSURE OF PUTIN ASSASSINATION CLAIMS BUT WARNS OF POTENTIAL MISINFORMATION
NAVY DRAG QUEEN: Fourteen Republican senators have written the Navy secretary questioning a TikTok video featuring a sailor who is also a drag queen.
“We write regarding the Navy’s ‘Digital Ambassador’ Pilot Program and reports that the Navy enlisted a TikTok drag queen to help reach potential recruits on social media,” the senators wrote. “While we understand the importance of social media for modern recruiting, we are concerned about both the promotion of a banned app and behavior that many deem inappropriate in a professional workplace.”
The video features Petty Officer 2nd Class Joshua Kelley, who performs in drag under the name of “Harpy Daniels” and who has more than 60,000 followers on TikTok.
The senators had questions: “Does the Navy endorse drag shows? Where does the Navy draw the line on promotion of the personal activities of its influencers? Would the Navy enlist burlesque or exotic dancers to reach possible recruits?”
“Such activity is not appropriate for promotion in a professional workplace or the United States military,” they wrote.
At yesterday’s Pentagon briefing, deputy spokeswoman Sabrina Singh referred questions to the Navy but said the Navy “Digital Ambassador” program “was a pilot outreach effort. It was not a recruiting effort,” and she volunteered that “this pilot program has concluded, and the Navy is evaluating the program and how it exists in the future.”
“We are incredibly proud of those who decide to serve, and that’s every young American who decides to serve and to take the oath, to put their [life] on the line in defense of our country.”
GOP SENATORS QUESTION NAVAL DRAG QUEEN AMBASSADOR EFFORT FOR SECURITY REASONS
The Rundown
Washington Examiner: Is a future war over Taiwan winnable by either China or the US?
Washington Examiner: White House denies US involvement in supposed Putin assassination attempt: ‘Ludicrous claim’
Washington Examiner: US unsure of Putin assassination claims but warns of potential misinformation
Washington Examiner: Russia ‘unlikely to be able’ to conduct a ‘significant offensive’ this year, US spy chief says
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Washington Examiner: Witness who worked at Mar-a-Lago provides fresh picture of Trump inquiry: Report
Washington Examiner: GOP senators question naval drag queen ambassador effort for security reasons
Washington Examiner: Opinion: Blaming US for Kremlin attack, Russia points the finger at itself
Nikkei: Top U.S. Republican Wants War Game With Japan On China Nuclear Threat
Reuters: China’s Aircraft Carriers Play ‘Theatrical’ Role But Pose Little Threat Yet
Reuters: Marcos Says Philippines Bases Could Be ‘Useful’ If Taiwan Attacked
Bloomberg: Taiwan To Treat China Drone Incursions As ‘First Strike’ Attempt
Bloomberg: Publicized US Navy Submarine Visit to South Korea Breaks Past Silence
19fortyfive.com: What Happens When Putin Dies?
Military Times: Russian Missile Nearly Hit U.S. MQ-9 Drone In Syria Last Year: CENTCOM
Defense One: MEU To Debut New Artillery, Missile, And Multi-Domain Unit
The Drive: Marine XQ-58 Valkyries Will Be Electronic Warfare Platforms For F-35s
Air & Space Forces Magazine: How USAF Is Tackling Pilot Retention: More Money, More Stability
FedWeek: Shipping Bonus Helping Marines Meet Recruitment Goals
Stars and Stripes: Iran May Continue Tanker Seizures Despite Increased Focus From U.S. Navy, Analysts Say
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Wilsbach Nominated to Be the New Boss at Air Combat Command
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Push to Expand 5G Coverage Would Cost USAF At Least $2 Billion, Brown Says
Defense News: First ‘Secret’ Task Orders Received for Pentagon’s $9B Cloud Contract
Breaking Defense: Air Force CIO Wants Service’s Platform One to Move Under JWCC
Space News: Lockheed Martin Announces Reorganization of Its Space Business
Calendar
FRIDAY | MAY 5
9 a.m. 1030 15th St. NW — Atlantic Council discussion: “Ideas to Implementation: Priorities for NATO’s Vilnius Summit,” with Lithuanian Minister of National Defense Arvydas Anusauskas and former NATO Deputy Secretary General Rose Gottemoeller https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/ideas-to-implementation
11 a.m. — Foundation for the Defense of Democracies virtual event: “Ukraine’s War of Independence: A Conversation with Amb. Oksana Markarova,” with Clifford May, founder and president, FDD https://www.fdd.org/events/2023/05/05/ukraines-war-of-independence
1:30 p.m. — U.S. Institute of Peace in-person and virtual event: “How to Strengthen Security Sector Assistance,” with Lise Grande, assistant to the administrator, United States Agency for International Development Bureau for Conflict Prevention and Stabilization; Robert Jenkins, senior adviser, USIP Center for Russia and Europe; retired Lt. Gen. Karl Eikenberry, former U.S. ambassador to Afghanistan; Dawn Liberi, former U.S. ambassador to Burundi; Anne Patterson, former U.S. ambassador to Colombia, Egypt, El Salvador, and Pakistan; and William Taylor, former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine and vice president of USIP Russia and Europe Center https://www.usip.org/events/how-strengthen-security-sector-assistance
6:30 p.m. Sedona, Arizona — McCain Institute 2023 Sedona Forum with the theme “Indispensable Power,” May 5-6 https://www.mccaininstitute.org/resources/events
WEDNESDAY | MAY 10
2:30 a.m. EDT Brussels, Belgium — NATO’s highest military authority, the Military Committee, meets in person at NATO headquarters, with opening remarks by Dutch navy Adm. Rob Bauer, chairman, NATO Military Committee, and NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news
10 a.m. — House Foreign Affairs Committee hearing: “Modernizing U.S. Arms Exports and a Stronger AUKUS,” with testimony from Jessica Lewis, assistant secretary of state for political-military affairs, and Mara Karlin, assistant defense secretary for strategies, plans, and capabilities https://foreignaffairs.house.gov/hearing/modernizing-u-s-arms-exports
10 a.m. — Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies “Schriever Spacepower Series,” with Maj. Gen. Shawn Bratton, commander, Space Training and Readiness Command https://mitchellaerospacepower.org/event/5-10
11:30 a.m. EDT Brussels, Belgium — Press conference with Dutch navy Adm. Rob Bauer, chairman, NATO Military Committee; NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg; U.S. Army Gen. Christopher Cavoli, supreme allied commander Europe; and French Gen. Philippe Lavigne, supreme allied commander transformation https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news
2 p.m. 310 Cannon — House Homeland Security Transportation and Maritime Security Subcommittee hearing: “Evaluating High-Risk Security Vulnerabilities at our Nation’s Ports,” with testimony from Rear Adm. Wayne Arguin, assistant Coast Guard commandant for prevention policy; Eric Goldstein, executive assistant director for cybersecurity at the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency; and Neal Latta, assistant administrator for enrollment services and vetting programs at the Transportation Security Administration https://homeland.house.gov/
2:30 p.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW — Brookings Institution in-person/virtual discussion: “The U.S. Coast Guard in an increasingly complex world,” with testimony from Adm. Linda Fagan, Coast Guard commandant, and Melanie Sisson, fellow, Strobe Talbott Center for Security, Strategy, and Technology, Brookings https://connect.brookings.edu/register-to-watch-us-coast-guard
THURSDAY | MAY 11
10 a.m. 2154 Rayburn — House Oversight and Accountability National Security, the Border, and Foreign Affairs Subcommittee hearing: “Strengthening the Fleet: Challenges and Solutions in Naval Surface Ship Construction,” with testimony from Rear Adm. Thomas Anderson, program executive officer for ships, and Rear Adm. Casey Moton, program executive officer for unmanned and small combatants http://oversight.house.gov
TUESDAY | MAY 23
10 a.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Committee full committee markup of H.R. 2670, the “National Defense Authorization Act for FY2024” http://www.armedservices.house.gov
WEDNESDAY | MAY 24
12 p.m. — Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress in-person book event: Russia’s War & The Russian People’s Understanding of the War In Ukraine, with author Jade McGlynn, research fellow, War Studies Department, King’s College, London. RSVP: [email protected]
QUOTE OF THE DAY “We neither encourage nor do we enable Ukraine to strike outside Ukraine’s borders. … We do not endorse, we do not encourage, we do not support attacks on individual leaders.” National Security Council spokesman John Kirby rejecting Russia’s claim that the United States was behind the drone attack on the Kremlin as “ludicrous”