Theories abound over drone strike on Kremlin, a Putin assassination attempt not among them
Jamie McIntyre
‘SMELLS LIKE A FALSE FLAG’: No sooner did Moscow blame Ukraine for the appearance at 3 a.m. of two small drones over the Kremlin Senate dome in Red Square, claiming it was an assassination attempt against Russian President Vladimir Putin, did Western experts begin to poke holes in the story.
“There was no assassination attempt on Putin,” tweeted Michael McFaul, former U.S. ambassador to Russia. “First, the drone used had no capacity to do major damage, let alone kill someone in the building. Second, Putin does not live (or sleep) in the Kremlin.”
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, on a visit to Finland, denied any knowledge of, or responsibility for, the apparent drone strike. “We do not attack Putin or Moscow. We fight on our own territory, defending our villages and cities. We don’t have, you know, enough weapons for this,” Zelensky said. “We cannot use anything anywhere. We did not attack Putin. We will leave it to tribunal.”
“This really does smell like a false flag operation on the part of the Russians, a diversion, if you will,” said Leon Panetta, former CIA director and defense secretary, on CNN. “If somebody was really trying to make an effort at an assassination attempt, it was pretty far-fetched. I’ve been to the Kremlin. The Kremlin is a fortress, and Putin doesn’t exactly take walks around the Kremlin. There’s no rose garden at the Kremlin.”
BLINKEN SAYS PUTIN ASSASSINATION CLAIMS SHOULD BE TAKEN WITH ‘A VERY LARGE SHAKER OF SALT’
THE KREMLIN LINE: “Two unmanned aerial vehicles targeted the Kremlin. Timely action by the military and special services involving radar systems enabled them to disable the devices. They crashed in the Kremlin grounds, scattering fragments without causing any casualties or damage,” said a statement posted on Putin’s webpage. “We view these actions as a planned terrorist attack and an assassination attempt targeting the President, carried out ahead of Victory Day and the May 9 Parade, where foreign guests are expected to be present, among others.”
“Russia reserves the right to take countermeasures wherever and whenever it deems appropriate,” the statement concluded.
“After today’s terrorist act, no variant remains other than the physical elimination of Zelensky and his clique,” said Dmitry Medvedev, former Russian president and deputy chairman of the Russian Security Council.
Overnight, Russia launched two dozen Iranian-made drones into Ukraine from the southeastern coast of the Sea of Azov, of which 18 were shot down, according to the Ukrainian General Staff’s Facebook page.
RUSSIA’S MEDVEDEV CALLS FOR ZELENSKY TO BE KILLED AMID PUTIN ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT CLAIMS
ISW: STRIKE WAS LIKELY: ‘INTERNALLY CONDUCTED AND PURPOSEFULLY STAGED’: There are so many things about the Kremlin version of events that don’t add up.
“Why did no reports of explosions emerge prior to the announcement on the messaging apps that remain full of chatter despite Russia’s crackdown on media and criticism of the war in Ukraine? Why didn’t videos of the purported attacks appear until after the announcement?” the Associated Press questioned in its report of the incident.
In its latest analysis, the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War suggested that “Russia likely staged this attack in an attempt to bring the war home to a Russian domestic audience and set conditions for a wider societal mobilization,” arguing it is “extremely unlikely that two drones could have penetrated multiple layers of air defense and detonated or been shot down just over the heart of the Kremlin in a way that provided spectacular imagery caught nicely on camera.”
“A strike that avoided detection and destruction by such air defense assets and succeeded in hitting as high-profile of a target as the Kremlin Senate Palace would be a significant embarrassment for Russia,” the ISW said. “The Kremlin’s immediate, coherent, and coordinated response to the incident suggests that the attack was internally prepared in such a way that its intended political effects outweigh its embarrassment.”
“The rapid and coherent presentation of an official Russian narrative around the strike suggests that Russia staged this incident in close proximity to the May 9th Victory Day holiday in order to frame the war as existential to its domestic audience,” the assessment suggested. “The Kremlin may use the strike to justify either canceling or further limiting May 9th celebrations.”
DID UKRAINE ATTACK THE KREMLIN OR DID RUSSIA?
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STILL MORE AMMUNITION FOR UKRAINE: As Ukraine’s promised counteroffensive draws nearer, the one thing Ukrainian forces can’t get too much of is ammunition for its artillery and anti-armor systems, so the Pentagon’s latest $300 million military aid package is heavy on munitions for HIMARS launchers and 155 mm howitzers.
The list of items from U.S. military stocks includes additional howitzers, TOW anti-tank missiles, small arms and ammunition, and demolition munitions for obstacle clearing.
Meanwhile, a new analysis out this morning from the Foundation for Defense of Democracies recommends the United States provide even more if it truly wants Ukraine to deal a devastating defeat to Russian occupation forces.
“To be sure, the Biden administration and America’s Western allies deserve credit for providing Kyiv with substantial amounts of military aid,” wrote John Hardie, deputy director of FDD’s Russia Program. “Yet Ukraine still faces gaps in key areas. The United States and its allies can resolve at least some of these shortcomings if they muster sufficient political will.”
Hardie called for more armored fighting vehicles to equip more Ukrainian brigades, along with additional air and missile defenses. In addition, he advocates the Biden administration drop its opposition to providing Ukraine with the longer-range Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS), along with artillery-fired cluster munitions that some members have been pushing for.
BIDEN ADMINISTRATION ANNOUNCES NEW MILITARY AID FOR UKRAINE
RAMPING UP JAVELIN PRODUCTION: The shipment of U.S. shoulder-fired Javelin missiles to Ukraine, which was crucial in the early months of the war in thwarting Russia’s attempt to capture Kyiv, has depleted U.S. stocks, and in response, Lockheed Martin and Raytheon Technologies will be ramping up production in a joint venture.
The “indefinite-delivery, indefinite-quantity contract” that will run through 2026 is valued at up to $7.2 billion.
“The Army, along with industry partners, are striving to shorten the production lead time associated with production and delivery of these systems,” said Doug Bush, assistant secretary of the Army for acquisition, logistics, and technology, in a statement. “This contract award further illustrates the urgency the U.S. government is applying to the acquisition of systems and replenishing munitions stockpiles.”
REZNIKOV: ‘WE ARE ENTERING THE HOME STRETCH’: The latest arms pledge from Washington comes as Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov says preparations for the counteroffensive are in the final stages.
“As of today, we are entering the home stretch, when we can say: ‘Yes, everything is ready,’” Reznikov said earlier this week in televised comments.
In an interview with the Atlantic published this week, Reznikov suggested that Ukraine’s strategy for retaking Ukraine would not be a full-on assault on Russia’s dug-in defenses but rather an effort to cut off and isolate the peninsula, making holding it untenable.
“Crimea we will take without a fight,” Reznikov told the Atlantic’s Anne Applebaum and Jeffrey Goldberg, who described the strategy this way: “Knowing that Crimea is being built into a fortress, the Ukrainians talk about the ‘political military’ liberation of Crimea, not a purely military counteroffensive. Once they have cut off the roads, railroads, and waterways to the peninsula, and targeted the military infrastructure with drones, the presumption is that many Russian inhabitants, especially recent immigrants, will become convinced that they would be better off living somewhere else.”
MILLEY REMAINS SKEPTICAL: Leaked intelligence has revealed that the Pentagon assessed in March that Ukraine’s counteroffensive was likely to achieve only modest gains, and in an interview with Foreign Policy, Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs, reflected some of that caution.
“There’s a possibility of a variety of outcomes. Clearly one of those outcomes could achieve significant success and collapse the Russian front line across the board. And that’s happened before in previous wars — World War I, for example. So there’s a possibility of that,” Milley said. “I do think, though, that the probability of either side achieving their political objectives — war is about politics through the sole use of military means — I think that’s going to be very difficult, very challenging. And frankly, I don’t think the probability of that is likely in this year.”
BLINKEN: ‘I FEEL CONFIDENT’: Secretary of State Antony Blinken sounded more optimistic during a discussion at an event marking World Press Freedom Day hosted by Washington Post Live.
“What was published in the press, in the media reflected a particular point in time. And this is not static. And so, where Ukraine might have been a month ago, two months ago, three months ago is not where it is now in terms of its ability, for example, to prosecute a counteroffensive and to deal with the ongoing Russian aggression,” Blinken told the Washington Post’s David Ignatius. “I feel confident that they will have success in regaining more of their territory.”
Asked by Ignatius if the U.S. would criticize Ukraine if it were to strike Russian territory, Blinken said, “These are decisions for Ukraine to make about how it’s going to defend itself, how it’s going to get its territory back, how it’s going to restore its territorial integrity and its sovereignty.”
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The Rundown
Washington Examiner: Biden administration announces new military aid for Ukraine
Washington Examiner: Blinken says Putin assassination claims should be taken with ‘a very large shaker of salt’
Washington Examiner: Russia’s Medvedev calls for Zelensky to be killed amid Putin assassination attempt claims
Washington Examiner: Did Ukraine attack the Kremlin or did Russia?
Washington Examiner: Russia claims Putin survived assassination attempt by Ukraine
Washington Examiner: New Hampshire National Guard gave green light for airman’s promotional video for TikTok
Washington Examiner: Iran seizes second oil tanker this week, US Navy alleges
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Bloomberg: NATO Warns That Russia Is Mapping EU, U.S. Critical Assets
Reuters: Taiwan Seeking U.S. Cooperation To Make Next-Generation Fighters
Inside Defense: LaPlante Wants To See ‘Production, Production, Production’
19fortyfive.com: South Korea’s KF-21 Fighter Jet: A Mini F-35?
Wall Street Journal: Iran Captures Second Oil Tanker in a Week
AP: Mississippi man charged with threatening to kill US Senator Roger Wicker
Breaking Defense: Pentagon Chief AI Officer ‘Scared To Death’ Of Potential For AI In Disinformation
C4ISRNET: Zero Trust Would Have Helped Prevent Pentagon Leak, CIO Sherman Says
USNI News: Navy Considering Extending USS Dwight D. Eisenhower Past 2027
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Defense One: New Software Aims to Allow Fewer Troops to Manage More Drones
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Calendar
THURSDAY | MAY 4
5:30 a.m. — Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies virtual discussion: “NATO and the Evolving Transatlantic Security Agenda,” with Benedetta Berti, head of policy planning at the Office of the Secretary General of NATO https://sais.jhu.edu/campus-events
9 a.m. 201 Waterfront St., National Harbor, Maryland — 2023 SelectUSA Investment Summit with Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm and Secretary of State Antony Blinken https://www.selectusasummit.us
9:30 a.m. G-50 Dirksen — Senate Armed Services Committee hearing: “Worldwide Threats,” with testimony from Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines and Army Lt. Gen. Scott Berrier, director, Defense Intelligence Agency https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings
12 p.m. — Hudson Institute virtual discussion: “Reaching an Endgame in Ukraine,” with former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Pavlo Klimkin, co-founder, Center for National Resilience and Development; and Reka Szemerkenyi, senior adviser on transatlantic strategy at the International Republican Institute https://www.hudson.org/events/reaching-endgame-ukraine
3:30 p.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “The modernization of the U.S.-Philippines alliance,” with Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos https://www.csis.org/events/conversation
3 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW — Center for Strategic and International Studies and the U.S. Studies Center discussion: “Allies and Geopolitical Competition in the Indo-Pacific Region” https://www.csis.org/events/allies-and-geopolitical-competition
4:15 p.m. — Hudson Institute virtual event: “A Conversation with Gen. Thomas Bussiere, commander, U.S. Air Force Global Strike Command,” with Rebeccah Heinrichs, Hudson senior fellow and director, Keystone Defense Initiative https://www.eventbrite.com/e/conversation-with-gen-bussiere
FRIDAY | MAY 5
9 a.m. 1030 15th St. NW — Atlantic Council discussion: “Ideas to Implementation: Priorities for NATO’s Vilnius Summit,” with Lithuanian Minister of National Defense Arvydas Anusauskas; and former NATO Deputy Secretary General Rose Gottemoeller https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/ideas-to-implementation
11 a.m. — Foundation for the Defense of Democracies virtual event: “Ukraine’s War of Independence: A Conversation with Ambassador Oksana Markarova,” with Clifford May, founder and president, FDD https://www.fdd.org/events/2023/05/05/ukraines-war-of-independence
6:30 p.m. Sedona, Arizona — McCain Institute 2023 Sedona Forum, 6:30 p.m., with the theme “Indispensable Power,” May 5-6 https://www.mccaininstitute.org/resources/events
WEDNESDAY | MAY 10
2:30 a.m. EDT Brussels, Belgium — NATO’s highest military authority, the Military Committee, meets in person at NATO Headquarters, with opening remarks by Dutch navy Adm. Rob Bauer, chairman, NATO Military Committee; and NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news
10 a.m. — Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies “Schriever Spacepower Series,” with Maj. Gen. Shawn Bratton, commander, Space Training and Readiness Command https://mitchellaerospacepower.org/event/5-10
11:30 a.m. EDT Brussels, Belgium — Press conference with Dutch Navy Adm. Rob Bauer, chairman, NATO Military Committee; NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg; U.S. Army Gen. Christopher Cavoli, supreme allied commander Europe, and French Gen. Philippe Lavigne, supreme allied commander transformation https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news
2:30 p.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW — Brookings Institution in-person/virtual discussion: “The U.S. Coast Guard in an increasingly complex world,” with Adm. Linda Fagan, Coast Guard commandant; and Melanie Sisson, fellow, Strobe Talbott Center for Security, Strategy, and Technology, Brookings https://connect.brookings.edu/register-to-watch-us-coast-guard
QUOTE OF THE DAY “We do not attack Putin or Moscow. We fight on our territory. We are defending our villages and cities. We don’t have, you know, enough weapons for this. … And we didn’t attack Putin. We leave it to tribunal.” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, denying Ukraine was responsible for the attack by two small drones on the Kremlin on Wednesday