White House asserts Russian latest offensive in Ukraine has ‘backfired’
Jamie McIntyre
BACKFIRED, WITH 20,000 KIA: For months, against the advice of some senior U.S. military officials, Ukraine has stubbornly held on to the largely-destroyed town of Bakhmut, successfully tying down Russian forces and inflicting heavy casualties while buying time for its counter-invasion force to coalesce.
Ukraine has lost some of its best, battle-hardened troops, but its strategy has decimated and demoralized Russia’s conscript and convict army that has been under orders from Russian President Vladimir Putin to take Bakhmut so he could tout some progress on the battlefield as the war that was supposed to take three days dragged into year two.
“The bottom line is that Russia’s attempted offensive has backfired. After months of fighting and extraordinary losses, Russia continues to be focused on a single Ukrainian city with limited strategic value,” NSC spokesman John Kirby said yesterday. “Ukraine’s armed forces are defending the territory bravely and effectively and making Russia expend enormous resources for marginal gains.”
Kirby told reporters that, based on newly declassified American intelligence, the U.S. estimates that just since December, Russia has suffered 100,000 casualties, including more than 20,000 dead. “It’s three times the number of killed in action that the United States faced on the Guadalcanal campaign in World War II and that was over the course of five months,” he said.
RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE EXPENDING ‘ENORMOUS RESOURCES FOR MARGINAL GAINS,’ US SAYS
LOW ON AMMO: Both sides are low on artillery shells as Russia has expended most of its inventory, and Ukraine is husbanding its stockpile for the coming counteroffensive. Otherwise, casualties in Bakhmut might have been even higher in recent months.
In an April 29 interview, the leader of Wagner Group mercenaries, Yevgeny Prigozhin, threatened to withdraw his forces from Bakhmut if the Russian military didn’t send him more ammunition, noted the Institute for the Study of War in its latest update. The institute also quoted a Ukrainian Air Force spokesperson as saying nine Tu-95 and two Tu-160 strategic bombers that launched cruise missiles at Kyiv carried “far fewer missiles than their maximum load,” suggesting Russia continues to struggle with adequate production of munitions.
“Logistics problems remain at the heart of Russia’s struggling campaign in Ukraine. Russia does not have enough munitions to achieve success on the offensive,” said the British Defense Ministry in its daily Twitter update.
“Paucity of ammunition drives internal divisions, most notably between Russia’s Ministry of Defence and Wagner Group,” according to U.K. intelligence. “Russia continues to give the highest priority to mobilizing its defense industry, but it is still failing to meet wartime demands. While Russia’s political leaders persist in demanding success on the battlefield, Russia’s logistics professionals are stuck in the middle.”
RUSSIA STRIKES UKRAINIAN CITIES AHEAD OF EXPECTED KYIV COUNTEROFFENSIVE
McCARTHY: ‘I SUPPORT AID FOR UKRAINE’: On his first trip abroad as House speaker, Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) found himself at a news conference in Israel being quizzed by a Russian reporter who prefaced his question with the assertion that McCarthy didn’t support “unlimited and uncontrolled” supplies of weapons to Ukraine.
After making sure he heard the question right, McCarthy pushed back hard.
“Did he say I don’t support aid to Ukraine? No, I vote for aid for Ukraine. I support aid for Ukraine. I do not support what your country has done to Ukraine,” he said, adding, “I do not support your killing of the children either and I think … you should pull out, and I don’t think it’s right. And we will continue to support because the rest of the world sees it just as it is.”
McCarthy is leading a bipartisan delegation of U.S. lawmakers visiting Israel, in which he was the first House speaker to address the Knesset in 25 years.
KEVIN MCCARTHY RIGHTLY CONFRONTS ISRAEL ON CHINA TECH CONCERNS
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HAPPENING TODAY: Another busy day on Capitol Hill, as leaders of the Air Force, the Space Force, and the Army appear before various senate committees.
Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall, Air Force chief of staff Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr., and Chief of Space Operations Gen. B. Chance Saltzman are before the Senate Armed Services Committee at 9:30 a.m.
Army Secretary Christine Wormuth and Army chief of staff Gen. James C. McConville testify before the Senate Appropriations Committee at 10 a.m.
And John Plumb, assistant defense secretary for space policy; Frank Calvelli, assistant Air Force secretary for space acquisition and integration; and Space Force Gen. David Thompson, vice chief of space operations, appear before the Senate Armed Services Strategic Forces Subcommittee at 4:45 p.m.
ONE GENERAL’S VIEW: ‘THE NEXT PHASE WILL LIKELY BE THE TOUGHEST’: Retired Gen. Mark Hertling, former commanding general of U.S. Army Europe, is predicting Ukraine’s upcoming counteroffensive is going to be no easy task.
“This will be a tough fight, with newly-formed Ukrainian units conducting (for the first time) large-scale combined arms breeches against prepared Russian defensive positions,” Hertling said in a Twitter thread posted yesterday. “Make no mistake, the next phase will likely be the toughest for both sides.”
“My belief is that Ukraines’ forces will perform well (even better than before) & the Russian force will continue to perform poorly (though not as bad as they have in the past),” he predicted. “That is partly due to switching roles (attacking vs defending, and time spent by each preparing).”
“Be wary of those who are looking for big moves & huge or fast gains. That could happen in some areas, but pushing logistics to support the Ukraine offensive will be the big test for each side,” Hertling advised. “The prepared side will carry the day.”
UKRAINE REJECTS WESTERN FEAR THAT PUTIN WOULD USE NUCLEAR WEAPONS TO KEEP CRIMEA
THE ATLANTIC, ALL-IN: The Atlantic magazine — in a cover story illustrated with a sketch of Volodymyr Zelensky by U2’s lead singer Bono — is making “the case for the total liberation of Ukraine” with an impassioned plea for the Biden administration to do more to ensure Ukraine can vanquish Russia on the battlefield.
“Uniquely, the United States has the power to determine how, and how quickly, the war of attrition turns into something quite different,” wrote staff writer Anne Applebaum and editor-in-chief Jeffrey Goldberg. “Over the next few months, as the Ukrainians take their best shot at winning the war, the democratic world will have to decide whether to help them do so. Sovereignty, safety, and justice — shouldn’t Americans want the war to end that way too?”
“Our argument, of course, is that Ukraine, the fighters of Ukraine, can do this without foreign troops, without U.S. troops, NATO troops. But what they can’t do without is the support, the American material, the weapon systems, the most advanced weapon systems,” said Goldberg in an appearance on CNN. “This is the year to do it … The argument now is if they have just more help, a little bit more concentration of help, they’ll actually be able to change the lines on the battlefield.”
“The Defense Minister of Ukraine told us something that was fascinating. He said, when the war started, people thought that this was going to be a war between a large Soviet army and a small Soviet army. But what they didn’t understand was that Ukraine had changed over the last 20 or 30 years and was now a Western army, an innovative or flattened hierarchy,” Goldberg said. “The Russians are still fighting like Soviets. The Ukrainians are fighting like American Special Forces …The Russians in Bakhmut and elsewhere are just trying to go home alive, right? They don’t care. The morale is extremely low.”
PUTIN WOULD BE ARRESTED AT SUMMIT, SOUTH AFRICA WARNS RUSSIA: ‘WE HAVE TO’
US ‘ASSISTS’ IN EVACUATION OF 1,000 AMERICANS FROM SUDAN: As Americans trapped by the fighting in Sudan continue to complain that they are getting little information from the U.S. Embassy about the bus convoys that are evacuating civilians to Port Sudan on the Red Sea, the White House says it has helped close to 1,000 U.S. nationals find a way to safety.
“The Department of State reports that the U.S. government has assisted in the departure of nearly 1,000 American citizens since the beginning of the crisis,” NSC spokesman John Kirby said in his briefing for reporters yesterday.
“That includes the departure of hundreds of American citizens over the weekend by U.S. government-organized convoys to the Port of Sudan. In the Port of Sudan, where the USNS Brunswick, which is an expeditionary fast transport ship, is supporting their onward travel. That also includes ongoing efforts to evacuate Americans on flights from partnered aircraft.”
The evacuations come just five days after Kirby said there were only several dozen Americans who wanted to leave Sudan, and that because “that population is so small,” the focus was getting them on buses for the 500-mile overland trek instead of conducting airlifts as U.S. allies Britain, France, and Germany did.
US HAS EVACUATED NEARLY 1,000 AMERICANS FROM SUDAN SINCE OUTBREAK OF FIGHTING
The Rundown
Washington Examiner: Russian offensive expending ‘enormous resources for marginal gains,’ US says
Washington Examiner: Russia strikes Ukrainian cities ahead of expected Kyiv counteroffensive
Washington Examiner: Ukraine rejects Western fear that Putin would use nuclear weapons to keep Crimea
Washington Examiner: Putin would be arrested at summit, South Africa warns Russia: ‘We have to’
Washington Examiner: Tuberville Sees NDAA Offramp To Standoff Over Pentagon’s Abortion Policy
Washington Examiner: US has evacuated nearly 1,000 Americans from Sudan since outbreak of fighting
Washington Examiner: US military tracking another aerial object
Washington Examiner: Biden looks to strengthen military ties with the Philippines as tension with China increases
Washington Examiner: Blinken denies role in intelligence letter calling Hunter Biden laptop story Russian disinformation
Washington Examiner: Opinion: Philippines-US alliance moves past Duterte dysfunction
Washington Examiner: Kevin McCarthy rightly confronts Israel on China tech concerns
The Atlantic: The Case for the Total Liberation of Ukraine
New York Times: As Signs Point To Counteroffensive, Russia And Ukraine Step Up Attacks
Wall Street Journal: Ukraine’s Arms Sector Overcomes Production Hurdles
Task & Purpose: Marine veteran killed while evacuating Ukrainian civilians from Bakhmut
Wall Street Journal: Air National Guard Plays Outsize Role in Air Force Drone Strikes, Military Data Show
Reuters: Biden Tells Marcos U.S. Commitment For Defence Of Philippines Is ‘Ironclad’
New York Times: Biden’s Meeting With Marcos Aims to Send a Message to China
AP: Sources: Biden to allow Afghans to stay longer in US
AP: Ukraine war looms over Switzerland UN presidency
Business Insider: The U.S. Navy Is Putting Its Submarines On Rare Public Display In A Message To Russia’s Growing Undersea Force
Breaking Defense: Short On Amphibs For Turkey, Sudan, The Marines Grapple With Crisis Response Ethos
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Cope Thunder Exercise Is Back in Philippines After 33 Years
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Unintended Escalation Could Lead to War with China, Experts Say
Defense One: With Lessons from Ukraine, US Special Forces Reinvents Itself for a Fight with China
Breaking Defense: Cyber Lessons from Ukraine: Prepare for Prolonged Conflict, Not a Knockout Blow
Space News: Lawmakers Raise Concerns about New Plan to Procure National Security Launch Services
Breaking Defense: National Guard Leaders Petition Biden, Harris for Dedicated Space Force Branch
Stars and Stripes: ‘Like Driving the Batmobile into the Future’: Air Force Uses JLTV in Mission for 1st Time
Air & Space Forces Magazine: ‘Lie to Fly’ Is Part of Pilot Culture. An Air Force Doctor Wants to Change That
Military.com: Military Expanding the Use of Fitness Trackers to Detect Disease Outbreaks Such as COVID-19
Stars and Stripes: ‘Trailblazer’: First Marine General To Lead Defense Intelligence Agency Dies At 64
19fortyfive.com: Opinion: Shrinking U.S. Military Capacity Now For Capabilities Later Is A Mistake
Calendar
TUESDAY | MAY 2
8:30 a.m. — Henry Stimson Center virtual discussion: “U.S.-China Relations,” with U.S. Ambassador to China Nicholas Burns https://www.stimson.org/event/nicholas-burns
9 a.m. One West Pratt St. Baltimore, Maryland — Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association 2023 TechNetCyber conference, with Army Gen. Paul Nakasone, commander, U.S. Cyber Command, and director, National Security Agency; Rob Vietmeyer, chief software officer, Defense Department; Deputy Defense CIO for Information Enterprise Lily Zeleke; Navy CIO Jane Rathbun; Venice Goodwine, director of enterprise information technology in the Office of the Air Force CIO; Marine Corps Brig. Gen. Joseph “Jay” Matos, deputy commander, Marine Corps Forces Cyberspace Command and deputy commander, Marine Corps Forces Space Command; Lt. Gen. Kevin Kennedy, commander, 16th Air Force and commander of Air Forces Cyber; Lt. Gen. Maria Barrett, commanding general, Army Cyber Command; Capt. Adam Morrison, deputy commander, Coast Guard Cyber Command; and Air Force Lt. Gen. Robert Skinner, director, Defense Information Systems Agency and commander of Joint Force Headquarters-Department of Defense Information Network https://events.afcea.org/afceacyber23/Public/enter.aspx
9 a.m. — George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs virtual Korea Policy Forum: “Assessing the Biden-Yoon Summit” https://calendar.gwu.edu/event/korea_policy_forum
9:30 a.m. G-50 Dirksen — Senate Armed Services Committee hearing: “The Posture, Department, Air Force in Review, Defense Authorization Request for FY2024 and the Future Years Defense Program,” with testimony from Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall; Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr.; and Chief of Space Operations Gen. B. Chance Saltzman https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings
10 a.m. 192 Dirksen — Senate Appropriations Defense Subcommittee hearing: “A Review, President’s FY2024 Budget Request for the Army,” with testimony from Army Secretary Christine Wormuth; and Army Chief of Staff Gen. James McConville https://www.appropriations.senate.gov/hearings
12 p.m. — Association, U.S. Army virtual discussion: “Recruiting with Success,” with Maj. Gen. Johnny Davis, commanding general, U.S. Army Recruiting Command https://www.ausa.org/events/noon-report
1 p.m. 14th and F Sts. NW — Debra Tice, mother of journalist Austin Tice, who disappeared in 2012 while reporting in Syria, holds a news conference at the National Press Club https://www.press.org/events/conversation-debra-tice
2:30 p.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. NW — Hudson Institute discussion: “The Indo-Pacific, Ukraine, and Transatlantic Ties,” with Czech Foreign Minister Jan Lipavsky https://www.hudson.org/events/czech-foreign-minister
2:30 p.m. 232-A Russell — Senate Armed Services Readiness and Management Support Subcommittee hearing: “The Current Readiness, Joint Force,” with testimony from Gen. Randy George, vice chief of staff, Army; Adm. Lisa Franchetti, vice chief of naval operations; Gen. Eric Smith, assistant Marine Corps commandant; Gen. David Allvin, vice chief of staff, Air Force; Space Force Gen. David Thompson, vice chief of space operations; and Diana Maurer, director of defense capabilities and management at the Government Accountability Office https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings
4 p.m. — 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE Heritage Foundation discussion: “Local Needs in an International War: A Conversation with Ukrainian Mayors,” with Trostianets Mayor Yuriy Bova; Melitopol Mayor Ivan Fedorov; Nizhyn Mayor Oleksandr Kodola; Kharkiv Mayor Ihor Terekhov; and Antonia Ferrier, vice president for external affairs at the International Republican Institute https://www.aei.org/events/local-needs-in-an-international-war
4:45 p.m. 222 Russell — Senate Armed Services Strategic Forces Subcommittee hearing: “Defense Department space activities in review, Defense Authorization Request for FY2024 and the Future Years Defense Program,” with testimony from John Plumb, assistant defense secretary for space policy; Frank Calvelli, assistant Air Force secretary for space acquisition and integration; and Space Force Gen. David Thompson, vice chief of space operations https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings
WEDNESDAY | MAY 3
8:30 a.m. One West Pratt St., Baltimore, Md. — Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association 2023 TechNetCyber conference, with Defense CIO John Sherman; Rob Vietmeyer, chief software officer, Defense Department; and National Guard CIO Kenneth McNeill, director, Command, Control, Communications, and Computers Systems Directorate https://events.afcea.org/afceacyber23/Public/enter.aspx
8:30 a.m. — Henry Stimson Center virtual discussion: “Nuclearization Debates: What Can South Korea Learn from South Asia?” with Ruhee Neog, director, New Delhi’s Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies; Nicholas Miller, associate professor at Dartmouth College; and Feroz Khan, research professor at the Naval Postgraduate School https://www.stimson.org/event/nuclearization-debates
10 a.m. 192 Dirksen — Senate Appropriations Energy and Water Development Subcommittee hearing: “A Review, FY2024 Budget Request for the U.S. Department of Energy, including the National Nuclear Security Administration,” with testimony from Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm; and Jill Hruby, undersecretary, National Nuclear Security Administration https://www.appropriations.senate.gov/hearings
10 a.m. 406 Dirksen — Senate Environment and Public Works Committee hearing: “The 2024 U.S. Army Corps of Engineers budget and implementation of Water Resources Development Act of 2022” http://epw.senate.gov
10 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW — Center for Strategic and International Studies discussion: “Strengthening Deterrence: Parliamentary Perspectives on Japan’s Defense Strategy,” with former Japanese Defense Minister Onodera Itsunori, member, Japanese House of Representatives; former Japanese Minister of Finance Otsuka Taku, member, Japanese House of Representatives; and former Japanese Parliamentary Secretary for Foreign Affairs Kokuba Konosuke, member, Japanese House of Representatives https://www.csis.org/events/strengthening-deterrence-parliamentary-perspectives
2 p.m. — Jewish Institute for National Security of America virtual discussion on a new report: “Build It and They Will Come: A U.S. Strategy for Integrating Middle East Air and Missile Defenses,” focusing on threats from Iran, with Rep. Robert Wittman (R-VA).; Rep. Brad Schneider (D-IL); retired Air Force Gen. Gilmary Michael Hostage, former commander of Air Combat Command; retired Air Force Lt. Gen. Joseph Guastella, former Air Force deputy chief of staff for operations; retired Army Lt. Gen. David Mann, former commanding general of U.S. Army Space and Missile Defense Command; and retired Air Force Lt. Gen. Henry Obering, former director, Missile Defense Agency https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register
3 p.m. — Center for the Study, Presidency and Congress virtual conversation with retired Australian Army Maj. Gen. Mick Ryan, author, White Sun War, The Campaign For Taiwan, a fictional account of a future war between the U.S. and China over Taiwan; and Joshua Huminski, director, Mike Rogers Center for Intelligence and Global Affairs https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register
6:30 p.m. 1307 L St. NW — New York University Brademas Center event: “The Clear Blue Skies: Diaries from Ukraine,” with actors reading excerpts from the diaries of Ukrainian children and teenagers chronicling the Russian-Ukrainian war, followed by a discussion on the war with policy experts. https://nyu.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN
THURSDAY | MAY 4
5:30 a.m. — Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies virtual discussion: “NATO and the Evolving Transatlantic Security Agenda,” with Benedetta Berti, head of policy planning at the Office of the Secretary General of NATO https://sais.jhu.edu/campus-events
9 a.m. 201 Waterfront St., National Harbor, Md. — 2023 SelectUSA Investment Summit with Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm; and Secretary of State Antony Blinken https://www.selectusasummit.us
9:30 a.m. G-50 Dirksen — Senate Armed Services Committee hearing: “Worldwide Threats,” with testimony from Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines; and Army Lt. Gen. Scott Berrier, director, Defense Intelligence Agency https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings
12 p.m. — Hudson Institute virtual discussion: “Reaching an Endgame in Ukraine,” with former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Pavlo Klimkin, co-founder, Center for National Resilience and Development; and Reka Szemerkenyi, senior adviser on transatlantic strategy at the International Republican Institute https://www.hudson.org/events/reaching-endgame-ukraine
3:30 p.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “The modernization of the U.S.-Philippines alliance,” with Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos https://www.csis.org/events/conversation
3 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW — Center for Strategic and International Studies and the U.S. Studies Center discussion: “Allies and Geopolitical Competition in the Indo-Pacific Region” https://www.csis.org/events/allies-and-geopolitical-competition
4:15 p.m. — Hudson Institute virtual event: “A Conversation with Gen. Thomas Bussiere, commander, U.S. Air Force Global Strike Command,” with Rebeccah Heinrichs, Hudson senior fellow and director, Keystone Defense Initiative https://www.eventbrite.com/e/conversation-with-gen-bussiere
FRIDAY | MAY 5
9 a.m. 1030 15th St. NW — Atlantic Council discussion: “Ideas to Implementation: Priorities for NATO’s Vilnius Summit,” with Lithuanian Minister of National Defense Arvydas Anusauskas; and former NATO Deputy Secretary-General Rose Gottemoeller https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/ideas-to-implementation
11 a.m. — Foundation for the Defense of Democracies virtual event: “Ukraine’s War of Independence: A Conversation with Amb. Oksana Markarova,” with Clifford May, founder and president, FDD https://www.fdd.org/events/2023/05/05/ukraines-war-of-independence
6:30 p.m. Sedona, Arizona — McCain Institute 2023 Sedona Forum, 6:30 p.m., with the theme “Indispensable Power,” May 5-6 https://www.mccaininstitute.org/resources/events
QUOTE OF THE DAY “I vote for aid to Ukraine. I support aid for Ukraine. I do not support what your country has done to Ukraine. I do not support your killing of the children, either. And I think … you should pull out … And we will continue to support because the rest of the world sees it just as it is.” House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) in Israel, responding to a Russian reporter who suggested McCarthy didn’t support “unlimited and uncontrolled supplies of weaponry and aid to Ukraine.”