Russian missile attacks appear to be aimed at targeting Western weapons ahead of Ukrainian counteroffensive
Jamie McIntyre
WHAT RUSSIAN MISSILE ATTACKS MEAN: Ukraine claims its Western-supplied air defenses shot down 15 of 18 “winged missiles” launched by Russia today, preventing any of them from hitting the capital Kyiv, according to the Ukrainian General Staff.
The Monday attack followed a similar strike on Friday, in which more than 20 cruise missiles and two drones targeted Kyiv and surrounding areas, with the only direct hit landing on an apartment building 135 miles to the south, killing 21 people, including four children, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who said Ukraine shot down 21 out of 23 incoming missiles.
Russia seems to have abandoned its winter strategy of targeting energy infrastructure to freeze the civilian population and instead seems to be trying to blunt Ukraine’s coming counteroffensive, according to British intelligence.
“There is a realistic possibility that Russia was attempting to intercept Ukrainian reserve units and military supplies recently provided to Ukraine,” the U.K. Defense Ministry tweeted over the weekend, suggesting the civilian casualties were a result of a lack of precision targeting systems. “Russia operates an inefficient targeting process and prioritizes perceived military necessity over preventing collateral damage, including civilian deaths.”
RUSSIAN STRIKES KILL AT LEAST 19 PEOPLE IN UKRAINE
UKRAINIAN DRONES STRIKES CRIMEA: On Saturday, two Ukrainian drones hit a Russian oil depot in Sevastopol, Crimea, resulting in a massive fire that sent smoke billowing into the air over the occupied peninsula in what also appeared to be a pre-offensive attack.
In an interview last week, Zelensky said Ukraine will seek to reclaim Crimea in the upcoming counteroffensive, a goal U.S. officials say may be overly ambitious. “The world should know: respect and order will return to international relations only when the Ukrainian flag returns to Crimea, when there is freedom there, just like everywhere else in Ukraine,” Zelensky said last month.
In an address over the weekend, Zelensky again appealed for modern Western fighter jets, a request the Biden administration has steadfastly denied. Zelensky says the ability of Ukraine to shoot down most, but not all, Russian missiles, which are launched from long-range bombers, shows the need for more capable air forces.
“If not for this, the terrorist state would have managed to claim many more casualties, more lives,” he said. “And this proves once again that we can stop terror and save people only with weapons. Air defense, modern aircraft, without which there is no fully effective air defense.”
On Friday, Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said “preparations are being finalized” and that Ukrainian forces are “mostly ready” for the offensive but that “some training is still in progress.”
‘H-HOUR IS DRAWING NEAR’: The signs continue to point to the Ukrainian counteroffensive starting soon. “Undoubtedly, H-Hour (the time set for a planned attack) for the forthcoming Ukrainian offensives is drawing near,” wrote retired Australian Maj. Gen. Mick Ryan on his Substack page. “For months, Ukrainian planners and strategic leaders have been reviewing different plans, as well as wargaming options as well as branches and sequels for those options. Ukrainian training institutions have been preparing soldiers and leaders, which has been supplemented by tactical and technical training being undertaken in NATO countries. Brigades and battalions have been conducting collective training and rehearsals.”
Ryan, who is also an adjunct fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and is known for his comprehensive analysis on Twitter, laid out five measures of success for the coming campaign:
Ukraine achieves surprise Ukraine is able to destroy or degrade Russian tactical and operational reserves, C2, and logistics before the offensive Ukraine takes back its territory Ukraine is well placed for actions to return Crimea at the end of the offensives Ukraine captures or destroys Russian forces Ukraine preserves sufficient combat power to continue defending some areas and conduct subsequent offensives in others Ukraine’s supporters believe the offensives have been a success
“It will not be long until we can put these measures into action,” Ryan wrote. “The Ukrainian military has been preparing for its offensives for some time, and they are clearly ready to force the Russians out of as much of Ukraine as possible.”
UKRAINE ACCUSES RUSSIA OF ‘HIDING BEHIND A HUMAN SHIELD OF SCHOOLCHILDREN’
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HAPPENING TODAY: President Joe Biden welcomes Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. to the White House this afternoon. Relations between the two allies have warmed in recent months as China has become more of a threat to Philippine interests in the South China Sea.
The White House visit comes as the Philippines has granted the U.S. access to four more bases on the islands to better position U.S. forces to deal with regional contingencies and as the two countries conducted their largest military exercises ever.
“During the visit, the President will reaffirm the United States’ ironclad commitment to the defense of the Philippines, and the leaders will discuss efforts to strengthen the longstanding U.S.-Philippines alliance,” the White House said in a statement.
Before departing for Washington, Marcos said he was “determined to forge an ever stronger relationship with the United States in a wide range of areas that not only address the concerns of our times, but also those that are critical to advancing our core interests,” according to the Associated Press.
HUNDREDS OF AMERICANS FLEE SUDAN: After a week of resisting military evacuations from Sudan and insisting only very small numbers of Americans wanted to leave, the Pentagon over the weekend said it would provide drones to escort buses from the capital Khartoum to Port Sudan, where U.S. citizens and other foreign nationals can take ships to Jeddah, Saudi Arabia.
“The Secretary of Defense approved a request for assistance from the Department of State to support the safe departure of U.S. citizens and their immediate family members via overland,” said Deputy Pentagon press secretary Sabrina Singh in a Saturday statement. “The Department of Defense deployed U.S. intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance assets to support air and land evacuation routes, which Americans are using, and we are moving naval assets within the region to provide any necessary support along the coast.”
So far, several hundred Americans have traveled the 500 miles to the Red Sea port, and today the first 100 or so Americans arrived in Saudi Arabia aboard a U.S. Navy evacuation ship.
ARMY AVIATION STAND DOWN: After two separate crashes in which Army helicopters collided in mid-air during training exercises, the chief of staff of the Army has ordered a “safety stand down” for this week, during which most air operations have been suspended while aviation units receive refresher training.
“The safety of our aviators is our top priority, and this stand down is an important step to make certain we are doing everything possible to prevent accidents and protect our personnel,” Army chief of staff James McConville said in a statement.
On Thursday, two Army Apache attack helicopters collided in Alaska, killing three soldiers and injuring a fourth. In March, nine soldiers were killed when two Black Hawk medical evacuation helicopters collided during a nighttime training exercise near Fort Campbell, Kentucky.
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The Rundown
Washington Examiner: Russian strikes kill at least 19 people in Ukraine
Washington Examiner: Ukraine accuses Russia of ‘hiding behind a human shield of schoolchildren’
Washington Examiner: Red flags missed on accused Pentagon leaker’s access to classified intelligence
Washington Examiner: DEI’s new battleground: the U.S. military
Washington Examiner: China brags about US casualties in Korean War
Washington Examiner: Opinion: China gets caught between its deceptive diplomacy and its imperial aggression
Washington Examiner: Majority of voters blame federal government for border crisis: Poll
New York Times: Crimea Depot Attack Was Prelude To Spring Offensive, Ukraine Says
Washington Post: Kyiv says Crimea strike was part of counteroffensive; air raid sirens sound across Ukraine
Washington Post: Donated MiG Jets Will Not Give Ukraine Air Superiority Against Russia, Experts Say
New York Times: Refusing To Wage War For Russia, And Paying Price
AP: Tense face-off: Philippines confronts China over sea claims
Nikkei: US Considers Landing Bombers in South Korea: Air Force General
Stars and Stripes: USS George Washington Will Return To Japan In 2024, Navy Confirms
AP: California man gets 4 1/2 years for role in US Capitol riot
Bloomberg: Lockheed Gets $7.8 Billion F-35 Order to Finish a $30 Billion Mega-Contract
Defense One: Air Force’s Next-Gen ICBM Program Could Face Delays, Kendall Says
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Air & Space Forces Magazine: USAF Analysis: China Hopes The US Can’t Afford Enough B-21s to Make A Difference
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Calendar
MONDAY | MAY 1
9 a.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: “A 20-year Retrospective: Reflecting on the ‘Mission Accomplished’ Speech and its Aftermath,” focusing on the 2003 invasion of Iraq, with former CIA Director retired Gen. David Petraeus, chairman, KKR Global Institute https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/reflecting-on-the-mission
10 a.m. — Hudson Institute virtual discussion: “Rebuilding American Naval Dominance,” with retired Navy Capt. Jerry Hendrix; and Timothy Walton, senior fellow at the Hudson Center for Defense Concepts and Technology https://www.hudson.org/events/rebuilding-american-naval-dominance
2 p.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW — Brookings Institution book discussion: US-Taiwan Relations: Will China’s Challenge Lead to a Crisis? with co-author Bonnie Glaser, managing director, German Marshall Fund’s Indo-Pacific Program, and former consultant for the State Department and the Defense Department; co-author Richard Bush, nonresident senior fellow at Brookings; co-author Ryan Hass, senior fellow at Brookings; and Nick Schifrin, foreign affairs and defense correspondent at PBS NewsHour https://www.brookings.edu/events/u-s-taiwan-relations
TUESDAY | MAY 2
8:30 a.m. — Henry Stimson Center virtual discussion: “U.S.-China Relations,” with U.S. Ambassador to China Nicholas Burns https://www.stimson.org/event/nicholas-burns
9 a.m. One West Pratt St. Baltimore, Maryland — Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association 2023 TechNetCyber conference, with Army Gen. Paul Nakasone, commander, U.S. Cyber Command, and director, National Security Agency; Rob Vietmeyer, chief software officer, Defense Department; Deputy Defense CIO for Information Enterprise Lily Zeleke; Navy CIO Jane Rathbun; Venice Goodwine, director of enterprise information technology in the Office of the Air Force CIO; Marine Corps Brig. Gen. Joseph “Jay” Matos, deputy commander, Marine Corps Forces Cyberspace Command and deputy commander, Marine Corps Forces Space Command; Lt. Gen. Kevin Kennedy, commander, 16th Air Force and commander of Air Forces Cyber; Lt. Gen. Maria Barrett, commanding general, Army Cyber Command; Capt. Adam Morrison, deputy commander, Coast Guard Cyber Command; and Air Force Lt. Gen. Robert Skinner, director, Defense Information Systems Agency and commander of Joint Force Headquarters-Department of Defense Information Network https://events.afcea.org/afceacyber23/Public/enter.aspx
9 a.m. — George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs virtual Korea Policy Forum: “Assessing the Biden-Yoon Summit” https://calendar.gwu.edu/event/korea_policy_forum
9:30 a.m. G-50 Dirksen — Senate Armed Services Committee hearing: “The Posture, Department, Air Force in Review, Defense Authorization Request for FY2024 and the Future Years Defense Program,” with testimony from Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall; Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr.; and Chief of Space Operations Gen. B. Chance Saltzman https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings
10 a.m. 192 Dirksen — Senate Appropriations Defense Subcommittee hearing: “A Review, President’s FY2024 Budget Request for the Army,” with testimony from Army Secretary Christine Wormuth; and Army Chief of Staff Gen. James McConville https://www.appropriations.senate.gov/hearings
12 p.m. — Association, U.S. Army virtual discussion: “Recruiting with Success,” with Maj. Gen. Johnny Davis, commanding general, U.S. Army Recruiting Command https://www.ausa.org/events/noon-report
1 p.m. 14th and F Sts. NW — Debra Tice, mother of journalist Austin Tice, who disappeared in 2012 while reporting in Syria, holds a news conference at the National Press Club https://www.press.org/events/conversation-debra-tice
2:30 p.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. NW — Hudson Institute discussion: “The Indo-Pacific, Ukraine, and Transatlantic Ties,” with Czech Foreign Minister Jan Lipavsky https://www.hudson.org/events/czech-foreign-minister
2:30 p.m. 232-A Russell — Senate Armed Services Readiness and Management Support Subcommittee hearing: “The Current Readiness, Joint Force,” with testimony from Gen. Randy George, vice chief of staff, Army; Adm. Lisa Franchetti, vice chief of naval operations; Gen. Eric Smith, assistant Marine Corps commandant; Gen. David Allvin, vice chief of staff, Air Force; Space Force Gen. David Thompson, vice chief of space operations; and Diana Maurer, director of defense capabilities and management at the Government Accountability Office https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings
4 p.m. — 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE Heritage Foundation discussion: “Local Needs in an International War: A Conversation with Ukrainian Mayors,” with Trostianets Mayor Yuriy Bova; Melitopol Mayor Ivan Fedorov; Nizhyn Mayor Oleksandr Kodola; Kharkiv Mayor Ihor Terekhov; and Antonia Ferrier, vice president for external affairs at the International Republican Institute https://www.aei.org/events/local-needs-in-an-international-war
4:45 p.m. 222 Russell — Senate Armed Services Strategic Forces Subcommittee hearing: “Defense Department space activities in review, Defense Authorization Request for FY2024 and the Future Years Defense Program,” with testimony from John Plumb, assistant defense secretary for space policy; Frank Calvelli, assistant Air Force secretary for space acquisition and integration; and Space Force Gen. David Thompson, vice chief of space operations https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings
WEDNESDAY | MAY 3
8:30 a.m. One West Pratt St., Baltimore, Md. — Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association 2023 TechNetCyber conference, with Defense CIO John Sherman; Rob Vietmeyer, chief software officer, Defense Department; and National Guard CIO Kenneth McNeill, director, Command, Control, Communications, and Computers Systems Directorate https://events.afcea.org/afceacyber23/Public/enter.aspx
8:30 a.m. — Henry Stimson Center virtual discussion: “Nuclearization Debates: What Can South Korea Learn from South Asia?” with Ruhee Neog, director, New Delhi’s Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies; Nicholas Miller, associate professor at Dartmouth College; and Feroz Khan, research professor at the Naval Postgraduate School https://www.stimson.org/event/nuclearization-debates
10 a.m. 192 Dirksen — Senate Appropriations Energy and Water Development Subcommittee hearing: “A Review, FY2024 Budget Request for the U.S. Department of Energy, including the National Nuclear Security Administration,” with testimony from Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm; and Jill Hruby, undersecretary, National Nuclear Security Administration https://www.appropriations.senate.gov/hearings
10 a.m. 406 Dirksen — Senate Environment and Public Works Committee hearing: “The 2024 U.S. Army Corps of Engineers budget and implementation of Water Resources Development Act of 2022” http://epw.senate.gov
10 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW — Center for Strategic and International Studies discussion: “Strengthening Deterrence: Parliamentary Perspectives on Japan’s Defense Strategy,” with former Japanese Defense Minister Onodera Itsunori, member, Japanese House of Representatives; former Japanese Minister of Finance Otsuka Taku, member, Japanese House of Representatives; and former Japanese Parliamentary Secretary for Foreign Affairs Kokuba Konosuke, member, Japanese House of Representatives https://www.csis.org/events/strengthening-deterrence-parliamentary-perspectives
2 p.m. — Jewish Institute for National Security of America virtual discussion on a new report: “Build It and They Will Come: A U.S. Strategy for Integrating Middle East Air and Missile Defenses,” focusing on threats from Iran, with Rep. Robert Wittman (R-VA).; Rep. Brad Schneider (D-IL); retired Air Force Gen. Gilmary Michael Hostage, former commander of Air Combat Command; retired Air Force Lt. Gen. Joseph Guastella, former Air Force deputy chief of staff for operations; retired Army Lt. Gen. David Mann, former commanding general of U.S. Army Space and Missile Defense Command; and retired Air Force Lt. Gen. Henry Obering, former director, Missile Defense Agency https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register
3 p.m. — Center for the Study, Presidency and Congress virtual conversation with retired Australian Army Maj. Gen. Mick Ryan, author, White Sun War, The Campaign For Taiwan, a fictional account of a future war between the U.S. and China over Taiwan; and Joshua Huminski, director, Mike Rogers Center for Intelligence and Global Affairs https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register
6:30 p.m. 1307 L St. NW — New York University Brademas Center event: “The Clear Blue Skies: Diaries from Ukraine,” with actors reading excerpts from the diaries of Ukrainian children and teenagers chronicling the Russian-Ukrainian war, followed by a discussion on the war with policy experts. https://nyu.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN
THURSDAY | MAY 4
5:30 a.m. — Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies virtual discussion: “NATO and the Evolving Transatlantic Security Agenda,” with Benedetta Berti, head of policy planning at the Office of the Secretary General of NATO https://sais.jhu.edu/campus-events
9 a.m. 201 Waterfront St., National Harbor, Md. — 2023 SelectUSA Investment Summit with Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm; and Secretary of State Antony Blinken https://www.selectusasummit.us
9:30 a.m. G-50 Dirksen — Senate Armed Services Committee hearing: “Worldwide Threats,” with testimony from Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines; and Army Lt. Gen. Scott Berrier, director, Defense Intelligence Agency https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings
12 p.m. — Hudson Institute virtual discussion: “Reaching an Endgame in Ukraine,” with former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Pavlo Klimkin, co-founder, Center for National Resilience and Development; and Reka Szemerkenyi, senior adviser on transatlantic strategy at the International Republican Institute https://www.hudson.org/events/reaching-endgame-ukraine
3:30 p.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “The modernization of the U.S.-Philippines alliance,” with Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. https://www.csis.org/events/conversation
3 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW — Center for Strategic and International Studies and the U.S. Studies Center discussion: “Allies and Geopolitical Competition in the Indo-Pacific Region” https://www.csis.org/events/allies-and-geopolitical-competition
4:15 p.m. — Hudson Institute virtual event: “A Conversation with Gen. Thomas Bussiere, commander, U.S. Air Force Global Strike Command,” with Rebeccah Heinrichs, Hudson senior fellow and director, Keystone Defense Initiative https://www.eventbrite.com/e/conversation-with-gen-bussiere
FRIDAY | MAY 5
9 a.m. 1030 15th St. NW — Atlantic Council discussion: “Ideas to Implementation: Priorities for NATO’s Vilnius Summit,” with Lithuanian Minister of National Defense Arvydas Anusauskas; and former NATO Deputy Secretary-General Rose Gottemoeller https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/ideas-to-implementation/
6:30 p.m. Sedona, Arizona — McCain Institute 2023 Sedona Forum, 6:30 p.m., with the theme “Indispensable Power,” May 5-6 https://www.mccaininstitute.org/resources/events
QUOTE OF THE DAY “We should be inspired by the events in France. They rioted when the retirement age went up two years to 64 … Meanwhile in America, we have an 80-year-old man begging us for four more years.” Daily Show correspondent Roy Wood Jr. roasting President Joe Biden at the annual White House correspondents dinner.