Top NATO commander drops hints that Ukraine offensive could come sooner than later
Jamie McIntyre
RUSSIA IS WEAK: In his second day of testimony on Capitol Hill, this time before the Senate Armed Services Committee, Gen. Christopher Cavoli, NATO’s supreme commander, gave several indications that Ukraine’s much-ballyhooed coming counteroffensive needs to launch before Russia is able to rebuild its beleaguered forces.
For Ukraine’s counteroffensive to succeed in retaking significant territory from dug-in Russian troops, its forces “have to be better than the Russian force they face,” Cavoli testified before the committee. “There are great weaknesses in the Russian force they face right now. Those weaknesses are temporary, and the Russians will improve their posture and their capabilities over time.”
Timing is a critical factor in success, Cavoli said, along with the “enemy’s capabilities.” And the general revealed a little more about the close coordination between the U.S. and the Ukrainian general staff in devising a concept of operations.
“We went into a planning process with our Ukrainian colleagues last winter, and we developed with them a number of courses of action, wargamed them carefully, and when we came down to the key courses of action for an offensive, we calculated the amount of equipment and the various types that they required,” Cavoli told the senators. “We have fulfilled that. We have nearly gotten everything into Ukraine, and I am confident they have what they need for the offensive that we have planned with them.”
UKRAINE TRIES TO MANAGE ‘EXPECTATIONS OF SUCCESS’ AHEAD OF COUNTEROFFENSIVE
BUT NOT THAT WEAK: Cavoli was pressed by several senators about why U.S. and NATO war plans for Europe haven’t been adjusted to account for the degraded state of the Russian military, which has proven to be inept and largely ineffective on the battlefields of Ukraine.
“Four of us wrote to the secretary of defense on March 21 asking that our warfighting requirements in Europe be updated to reflect the degradation of Russian forces,” said Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-CT). “Obviously, it’s a different force than it was when those warfighting requirements were devised.”
“I would point out one or two things, though. The Russian army inside Ukraine today is bigger than it was at the beginning of the conflict,” responded Cavoli, who also noted that while Russia’s conscript army is depleted, much of Russia’s military remains intact.
“Their military has suffered significant losses in this conflict but they’ve mainly been in the ground domain,” he testified. “The tactical Air Force has lost about 80 fighters and fighter bombers but they have more than 1,000 of them left. The long-range aviation has not been touched. The Navy has barely been touched, lost a ship or two. The strategic nuclear forces, the cyber, the space have not been touched.”
“I think Russia is quite likely to remain the core security challenge in Europe for some years to come,” Cavoli concluded.
WHERE ARE THE ABRAMS? Sens. Tom Cotton (R-AR), Mike Rounds (R-SD), and Angus King (I-ME) were among the vocal critics on the committee question of why the 31 U.S. M1 Abrams tanks promised to Ukraine won’t arrive until fall, which could be long after the counteroffensive begins.
“Our country has thousands of main battle tanks. It would seem like it’s not that hard to find 31 and get them there,” said Cotton, who expressed his belief the delay was evidence that President Joe Biden doesn’t really want to send them. “I think we could supply them faster than eight or nine months if there was the political will.”
“It shouldn’t take eight months for the United States Army to be able to access 31 Abrams tanks. If we needed them tomorrow, we’d get them very, very quickly,” said Rounds.
“If I needed those tanks for the U.S. Army, I certainly could,” Cavoli agreed under questioning from Rounds.
“This counteroffensive that everybody is talking about, it’s the longest wind-up for a punch in the history of the world. It’s going to be trench warfare, and it’s going to involve tanks,” said King. “If our tanks don’t get there until August or September, it may well be too late.”
“I just hope you’ll take back that this is a bipartisan concern,” King told Cavoli. “This tank story is not satisfactory … The tanks should be sitting there on the Polish border, ready to go, when that training is done.”
Cavoli said he would explain the delay in a closed session, and committee Chairman Sen. Jack Reed (D-RI) suggested part of the problem is establishing support for the high-maintenance Abrams tanks. “It operates on something closer to jet fuel than diesel, which makes the creation of independent supply lines by the Ukrainians essential to use,” said Reed, noting that Ukraine has been provided with thousands of armored vehicles, including more than 500 tanks which are ready for battle now.
LAWMAKERS QUESTION TIMELINE FOR ABRAMS TANKS TO REACH UKRAINE
Good Friday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Conrad Hoyt. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense.
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HAPPENING TODAY: Senior Navy leaders are on the Hill this morning, testifying before the House Armed Services Committee at 9 a.m. When Navy Secretary Carlos Del Toro, Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Michael Gilday, and Marine Corps Commandant Gen. David Berger appeared before the Senate Armed Services Committee last week, they were grilled about the failure of the Navy’s shipbuilding plan to keep pace with China and to comply with a congressional mandate to maintain a fleet of 31 amphibious assault ships.
PROSECUTORS PORTRAY ALLEGED LEAKER AS POTENTIAL MASS SHOOTER: When Massachusetts Air National Guardsman Jack Teixeira was charged with stealing and posting highly-classified documents on a chat room, the first question everyone asked was how a 21-year-old junior enlisted airman could have access to the secrets.
After his court appearance yesterday, the questions have sharpened, focusing on how Teixeira was ever accepted into the Air Force and given any kind of clearance, given that he failed a background check by local police in 2018 when he applied for a firearms identification card, and why there appeared to be virtually no security protocols in place at the Massachusetts base where he worked as an IT technician.
According to court documents, when the FBI searched Teixeira’s room, they found an arsenal of weapons in a gun locker next to his bed, including “handguns, bolt-action rifles, shotguns, an AK-style high-capacity weapon, and a gas mask.”
And his postings on social media were even more chilling, as detailed in a series of bullet points in the prosecutors’ court filings.
In November 2022, the defendant stated that if he had his way, he would “kill a [expletive] ton of people” because it would be “culling the weak minded.” In February 2023, the defendant told a user that he was tempted to make a specific type of minivan into an “assassination van.” Also in February 2023, the defendant sought advice from another user about what type of rifle would be easy to operate from the back of an SUV. He describes how he would conduct the shooting in a “crowded urban or suburban environment.” In March 2023, the defendant described SUVs and crossovers as “mobile gun trucks” and “[o]ff-road and good assassination vehicles.”
In arguing that Teixeira is a flight risk who should remain behind bars, prosecutors said that with no money or employment prospects, the young airman would be a prime target for foreign intelligence agencies.
“The evidence against him is substantial and mounting; the charged conduct would very obviously end his military career; and he accessed and may still have access to a trove of classified information that would be of tremendous value to hostile nation states that could offer him safe harbor and attempt to facilitate his escape from the United States.”
JUDGE PUNTS ON RULING WHETHER ACCUSED CLASSIFIED DOCUMENTS LEAKER SHOULD BE DETAINED UNTIL TRIAL
‘WE DO HAVE A CONTINUOUS VETTING PROCESS’: The Pentagon is not commenting on the specifics of the Teixeira case, referring most questions to the Justice Department or the FBI.
But Pentagon spokesman Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder said the departments have what he called “a continuous vetting process,” which provides “near real-time monitoring of cleared individuals supported by automated record checks that pull data from several different data sources, including criminal, financial and public records, throughout an individual’s period of eligibility.”
That is all being reviewed under orders from Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin in the wake of the massive leak. “The department is looking not only at our intelligence processes and procedures, as it relates to security or sensitive information and who has that information, but also looking at the process by which we clear and vet individuals for security clearances, and that work is ongoing,” Ryder said.
“Congress in its oversight role must continue to ask really probing, aggressive questions about how it is possible that this happened,” said Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-VA), a member of the House Intelligence Committee. “I’m a former CIA officer. I had a security clearance; everything I touched in my old job before coming to Congress was classified.”
“There needs to be a full review of what’s happening within the individual agencies,” Spanberger said on CNN. “What sort of technological capabilities exist or upgrades need to be implemented so that when someone like this man, who had no need to be accessing the information, the files, the documents he was accessing,” she said. “Why were there not pings going off each time? Was his supervisor being alerted? Were people in the counterintelligence shop being alerted that he was accessing information?”
AMERICANS IN SUDAN FEEL ABANDONED: The Biden administration is having a hard time explaining why U.S. allies such as Britain, France, and Germany were able to airlift their citizens out of of Sudan during a period of ceasefire while American were told to travel overland to a port city 500 miles from the capital Khartoum.
“Never in a million years did I imagine that my parents would be left to fend for themselves in a war zone,” said Muna Daoud, whose parents, American citizens, are trying to get out. Daoud said after a harrowing 12-hour bus ride from Khartoum to Port Sudan, during which her father was held at gunpoint by one of the country’s warring armies, they found no support for U.S. citizens.
“No American presence, no American assistance, no signage anywhere to tell them where to go,” she told CNN.
Daoud was one of several Americans interviewed by CNN who had horror stories about the bus trips carrying Americans to Port Sudan on the Red Sea. “They’re stuck at the border. There’s no water. There’s no food. The border is essentially a humanitarian crisis. And it is not only Americans who are facing this issue,” said another American whose parents are stuck in Sudan.
“We are working continuously to create options for American citizens to leave Sudan promptly because the situation could deteriorate at any moment,” said White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre. “And we are communicating with citizens who have requested information about those options.”
But Jean-Pierre had no good explanation for why the U.S. was unable to mount an airlift operation as several other countries did. “Look, we have deployed U.S. intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance assets to support air and land evacuation routes. That is something that we have done and which Americans are indeed using,” was the best she could offer.
“We’re working very closely with the State Department to identify the number of Americans who want to leave Sudan as of right now,” said Ryder. “The indications that we have is that those numbers are relatively small. However, we do recognize that could change quickly.”
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The Rundown
Washington Examiner: Judge punts on ruling whether accused classified documents leaker should be detained until trial
Washington Examiner: Lawmakers question timeline for Abrams tanks to reach Ukraine
Washington Examiner: Ukraine tries to manage ‘expectations of success’ ahead of counteroffensive
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Calendar
FRIDAY | APRIL 28
8 a.m. — Advanced Nuclear Weapons Alliance Deterrence Center and Hudson Institute Joint National Nuclear Security Administration Strategic Nuclear Deterrence virtual forum: “Modernization of U.S. Nuclear Forces, Space and Missile Defense,” with Rep. Doug Lamborn (R-CO), chairman, House Armed Services Subcommittee on Strategic Forces https://www.eventbrite.com/e/us-congressman-doug-lamborn
9 a.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Committee hearing: “Department of the Navy FY2024 Budget Request,” with testimony from Navy Secretary Carlos Del Toro; Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Michael Gilday; and Marine Corps Commandant Gen. David Berger https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings
10 a.m. 1957 E St. NW — George Washington University Space Policy Institute discussion: “The Strategic Defense Initiative in Retrospect: The Past, Present, and Future of Missile Defense,” with Mallory Stewart, assistant secretary of state for arms control, verification and compliance https://calendar.gwu.edu/event
11 a.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE — Heritage Foundation discussion: “China’s Influence in the Pacific Islands,” with Daniel Suidani, former premier of Malaita Province, Solomon Islands https://www.heritage.org/asia/event/chinas-influence-the-pacific-islands
2 p.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. NW— Hudson Institute discussion: “Restoring Military Readiness,” with Rep. Mike Garcia (R-CA) https://www.hudson.org/events/restoring-military-readiness
4 p.m. 2212 Rayburn — House Armed Services Intelligence and Special Operations Subcommittee hearing: “A Review of the Defense Intelligence Enterprise’s Posture and Capabilities in Strategic Competition and in Synchronizing Intelligence Efforts to Counter the People’s Republic Of China,” with testimony from Ronald Moultrie, undersecretary of defense for intelligence and security; Gen. Paul Nakasone, commander, U.S. Cyber Command and director, National Security Agency; and Lt. Gen. Scott Berrier, director, Defense Intelligence Agency https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings/iso
TUESDAY | MAY 2
9:30 a.m. G-50 Dirksen — Senate Armed Services Committee hearing: “The Posture of the Department of the Air Force in Review of the Defense Authorization Request for FY2024 and the Future Years Defense Program,” with testimony from Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall; Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr.; and Chief of Space Operations Gen. B. Chance Saltzman https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings
10 a.m. 192 Dirksen — Senate Appropriations Defense Subcommittee hearing: “A Review of the President’s FY2024 Budget Request for the Army,” with testimony from Army Secretary Christine Wormuth; and Army Chief of Staff Gen. James McConville https://www.appropriations.senate.gov/hearings
2:30 p.m. 232-A Russell — Senate Armed Services Readiness and Management Support Subcommittee hearing: “The Current Readiness of the Joint Force,” with testimony from Gen. Randy George, vice chief of staff of the Army; Adm. Lisa Franchetti, vice chief of naval operations; Gen. Eric Smith, assistant Marine Corps commandant; Gen. David Allvin, vice chief of staff of the Air Force; Space Force Gen. David Thompson, vice chief of space operations; and Diana Maurer, director of defense capabilities and management at the Government Accountability Office https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings
4:45 p.m. 222 Russell — Senate Armed Services Strategic Forces Subcommittee hearing: “Defense Department space activities in review of the Defense Authorization Request for FY2024 and the Future Years Defense Program,” with testimony from John Plumb, assistant defense secretary for space policy; Frank Calvelli, assistant Air Force secretary for space acquisition and integration; and Space Force Gen. David Thompson, vice chief of space operations https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings
WEDNESDAY | MAY 3
10 a.m. 192 Dirksen — Senate Appropriations Energy and Water Development Subcommittee hearing: “A Review of the FY2024 Budget Request for the U.S. Department of Energy, including the National Nuclear Security Administration,” with testimony from Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm; and Jill Hruby, undersecretary, National Nuclear Security Administration https://www.appropriations.senate.gov/hearings
10 a.m. 406 Dirksen — Senate Environment and Public Works Committee hearing: “The 2024 U.S. Army Corps of Engineers budget and implementation of Water Resources Development Act of 2022” http://epw.senate.gov
3 p.m. — Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress virtual conversation with retired Australian Army Maj. Gen. Mick Ryan, author, White Sun War, The Campaign For Taiwan, a fictional account of a future war between the U.S. and China over Taiwan; and Joshua Huminski, director, Mike Rogers Center for Intelligence and Global Affairs https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register
THURSDAY | MAY 4
9:30 a.m. G-50 Dirksen — Senate Armed Services Committee hearing: “Worldwide Threats,” with testimony from Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines; and Army Lt. Gen. Scott Berrier, director of the Defense Intelligence Agency https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings
4:15 p.m. — Hudson Institute virtual event: “A Conversation with Gen. Thomas Bussiere, commander, U.S. Air Force Global Strike Command,” with Rebeccah Heinrichs, Hudson senior fellow and director, Keystone Defense Initiative https://www.eventbrite.com/e/conversation-with-gen-bussiere
WEDNESDAY | MAY 10
2:30 a.m. EDT Brussels, Belgium — NATO’s highest military authority, the Military Committee, meets in person at NATO headquarters, with opening remarks by Dutch Navy Adm. Rob Bauer, chair of the NATO Military Committee; and NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news
10 a.m. — Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies “Schriever Spacepower Series,” with Maj. Gen. Shawn Bratton, commander, Space Training and Readiness Command https://mitchellaerospacepower.org/event/5-10
11:30 a.m. EDT Brussels, Belgium — Press conference with Dutch Navy Adm. Rob Bauer, chair of the NATO Military Committee; NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg; U.S. Army Gen. Christopher Cavoli, supreme allied commander Europe, and French Gen. Philippe Lavigne, supreme allied commander transformation https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news
2:30 p.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW — Brookings Institution in-person/virtual discussion: “The U.S. Coast Guard in an increasingly complex world,” with Adm. Linda Fagan, Coast Guard commandant; and Melanie Sisson, fellow, Strobe Talbott Center for Security, Strategy, and Technology, Brookings https://connect.brookings.edu/register-to-watch-us-coast-guard
QUOTE OF THE DAY “This counteroffensive that everybody is talking about, it’s the longest wind-up for a punch in the history of the world. It’s going to be trench warfare, and it’s going to involve tanks. That’s why the tank was invented at the end of World War I. If our tanks don’t get there until August or September, it may well be too late.” Sen. Angus King (I-ME) on the need to get U.S. M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine in time for the coming Ukraine counteroffensive.