US spymasters describe increasingly dangerous world
Jamie McIntyre
WORLDWIDE THREATS: The nation’s top spymasters brief Congress today on their annual assessment of the worldwide threats faced by the United States, and according to Sen. Angus King (I-ME), it’s a “sobering, but very clear-eyed” assessment, based on his reading of the unclassified 35-page report to be released along with this morning’s testimony before the Senate Intelligence Committee.
“My recommendation is don’t read it just before you go to sleep because it paints a pretty serious picture of exactly what the title implies — worldwide threats,” Angus told reporters on a conference call ahead of today’s 10 a.m. hearing. “It spends a lot of time on Russia and China but then talks about flashpoints in other parts of the world — Iran, North Korea continuing its nuclear ambitions, China dramatically increasing its nuclear force, and of course, we all know about what’s going on in Ukraine.”
Today’s lineup includes Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines, CIA Director William Burns, FBI Director Christopher Wray, NSA Director Gen. Paul Nakasone, and DIA Director Lt. Gen. Scott Berrier.
King said he plans to grill the spy chiefs about the failure of sanctions to have the intended effect on Russia’s economy. “That’s important because sanctions are often the first tool in our foreign policy toolkit, and I think we need to understand this has been a good case study of serious sanctions imposed without the kind of impact that was expected.”
“You’ll recall a year ago when the Ukrainian invasion started, we and the Europeans imposed sanctions on Russia that were predicted to cripple their economy, vastly increase inflation, destroy the value of the ruble — that really hasn’t happened. The Russian economy did contract last year but it’s scheduled to grow modestly this year, and my question to the intelligence community is why?”
CHINESE FOREIGN MINISTER WARNS OF ‘CONFLICT AND CONFRONTATION’ WITH THE US
GOP SENATOR: RELEASE LAB LEAK INTEL: Haines’s appearance before the Senate panel comes as eight Republican senators are calling on her office to declassify and provide to Congress the underlying intelligence that is being used to assess the origins of COVID-19, including new intelligence linking the pandemic to the Wuhan Institute of Virology.
“Congress should be able to review the independent evaluations without filters, ambiguity or interpretations of the intelligence,” the senators wrote in a March 6 letter to Haines. “There is clear bipartisan support in Congress to make these assessments available immediately in full.”
“We request to be briefed about how ODNI ensured that the conclusions represented in the final publications were the most accurate analysis of intelligence derived from all sources,” the letter continued. “By shielding the independent IC element results, ODNI failed to accurately inform Congress or the American people that the FBI and DOE assessed that the first SARS-CoV-2 human infection was most likely the result of a laboratory-associated incident.”
The push comes as the Republican-controlled House Oversight and Reform Select Coronavirus Pandemic Subcommittee holds its first hearing probing the origins of COVID-19 at 9 a.m, with testimony from Robert Redfield, former CDC director; Jamie Metzl, senior fellow at the Atlantic Council; and Nicholas Wade, former science and health editor for the New York Times and former editor of Science
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Good Wednesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Conrad Hoyt. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense.
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HAPPENING TODAY: House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Michael McCaul (R-TX) plans to use today’s hearing into the fall of Kabul in August of 2021 to make the case that the sudden withdrawal of U.S. troops and chaotic evacuation of Afghan partners amounted to a “stunning failure of leadership” by the Biden administration.
“What happened in Afghanistan was a systemic breakdown of the federal government at every level,” McCaul said in a statement to the Washington Examiner, my colleagues Mike Brest and Jerry Dunleavy report. “As a result, the world watched heartbreaking scenes unfold in and around the Kabul airport. I want every gold and blue star family member, and every veteran out there who watch this hearing to know: I will not rest until we determine how this happened — and hold those accountable responsible.”
“As a result, the world watched heartbreaking scenes unfold in and around the Kabul airport. I want every gold and blue star family member, and every veteran out there who watch this hearing to know: I will not rest until we determine how this happened — and hold those accountable responsible.”
“The administration has not cooperated with the committee’s investigation, according to a committee staffer, prompting McCaul to send a letter to Secretary of State Antony Blinken on the department’s failure to provide documents,” Brest and Dunleavy report.
PREVIEWING FIRST GOP-LED HOUSE HEARING ON AFGHAN WITHDRAWAL: ‘STUNNING FAILURE OF LEADERSHIP’
THE WITNESSES: Here’s who is testifying at the 10 a.m. hearing “During and After the Fall of Kabul: Examining the Administration’s Emergency Evacuation from Afghanistan”:
Marine Sgt. Tyler Vargas-Andrews, who was on the ground at Hamid Karzai International Airport and is now a double amputee as a result of the ISIS-K suicide bombing. Vargas-Andrews told the Washington Post last year that, just ahead of the ISIS-K attack, he asked for permission to take a shot at a suspicious man who matched the description of a potential ISIS-K suicide bomber, but that permission was denied.
Former U.S. Army Specialist Aidan Gunderson, who served four years with the 82nd Airborne Division as a combat medic. His most recent combat tour was on the ground in Afghanistan from Aug. 14-30, 2021. There, Gunderson and his company helped evacuate hundreds of Afghans and others.
Scott Mann, a former Army Green Beret who served multiple tours in Afghanistan and founded Task Force Pineapple, a veteran-led volunteer organization that helped evacuate thousands of Afghan allies in August 2021.
Francis Hoang, the former executive officer of a U.S. Army Special Forces company during a combat deployment in Afghanistan in 2009, is the executive chairman of Allied Airlift 21, another volunteer group that helped rescue hundreds from Afghanistan following the Taliban takeover.
Marine veteran Peter Lucier led Team America Relief as part of the #AfghanEvac coalition, helping rescue hundreds of Afghans as well as U.S. citizens.
AFGHANISTAN’S GOVERNMENT FELL BECAUSE OF THESE SIX BLUNDERS, WATCHDOG SAYS
THE TUCKER TAPES: Fox News host Tucker Carlson is getting decidedly mixed reviews from Republicans after he aired video clips Monday night on the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol, from the trove of video footage he was given exclusively by House Speaker Kevin McCarthy.
Carlson narrated the edited footage in an attempt to dispute the narrative that it was a violent insurrection.
“The crowd was enormous. A small percentage of them were hooligans, they committed vandalism. You’ve seen their pictures again and again. But the overwhelming majority weren’t. They were peaceful, they were orderly, and meek,” Carlson said over footage of people milling around various parts of the Capitol, sometimes in the company of police officers. “These were not insurrectionists, they were sightseers. Footage from inside the Capitol overturns the story you’ve heard about January 6th. Protesters queue up in neat little lines. They give each other tours outside the speaker’s office. They take cheerful selfies, and they smile. They’re not destroying the capital, they obviously revere the Capitol.”
“The program conveniently cherry-picked from the calmer moments of our 41,000 hours of video. The commentary fails to provide context about the chaos and violence that happened before or during these less tense moments,” said U.S. Capitol Police Chief Tom Manger.
CAPITOL POLICE CHIEF BLASTS TUCKER CARLSON FOR SAYING OFFICERS ACTED AS ‘TOUR GUIDES’ ON JAN. 6
‘IT’S BULL***’: Carlson got immediate pushback from several key Republicans in Congress, notably Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (KY), who called the decision by Fox News to allow Carlson to air selectively-edited clips to rewrite history a “mistake.” Holding up a copy of the statement by the chief of the Capitol Police, McConnell said Carlson’s narrative is “completely at variance with what our chief law enforcement official here at the Capitol thinks.”
Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) was much blunter in a comment to CNN. “I think it’s bull****,” he told CNN’s Manu Raju. “I saw maybe a few tourists, a few people who got caught up and things … but when you see police barricades breached, when you see police officers assaulted, all of that … if you were just a tourist, you should have probably lined up at the Visitor Center and came in on an orderly basis.”
“It’s disgusting. I mean, look, you know, the sad thing is, you’re going to have people that have only gotten their news on Fox News, that are never going to have the opportunity to hear the truth,” said former Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-IL), a member of the Jan. 6 committee, and currently a paid contributor to CNN.
“In terms of history, nobody believes any of what garbage-talker was spewing,” said Kinzinger. “I think we set history straight on the committee. But today, there are people that are so invested in the emotional politics and tribe, that if Tucker gives them a narrative to hold on to, that makes their side look OK. They’re going to hold on to that, unfortunately.”
GOP SENATORS REACT TO TUCKER CARLSON’S SEGMENT ON JAN. 6: ‘IT’S BULLS***’
ZELENSKY DEFENDS DEFENDING BAKHMUT: In an audio message, Yevgeny Prigozhin, leader of the Wagner Group mercenaries that have been fighting for seven months in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region, claimed to have taken the eastern districts of Bakhmut, across the river from the town center.
While Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has suggested that Ukrainian forces should consider falling back to more defensible positions, in an interview with CNN, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Bakhmut represents more than a symbol of defiance.
“Russia needs at least some victory, a small victory even by ruining everything in Bakhmut, just killing every civilian there. They need to put that little flag on top of that to show that.” Zelensky said in an interview that airs tonight at 9 p.m.
“For us, it’s such a different. This is tactical for us. We understand that after Bakhmut, they could go further. They could go to Kramatorsk, Donetsk. It will be an open road for the Russians after Bakhmut to other towns in Ukraine. In the Donetsk direction, in the east of Ukraine, that’s why our guys are standing there.”
INTELLIGENCE OFFICIALS SUSPECT UKRAINE PARTISANS BEHIND NORD STREAM BOMBINGS, RATTLING KYIV’S ALLIES
INDUSTRY WATCH: The State Department has approved the sale of five E-2D Advanced Hawkeye Airborne Early Warning and Control planes to Japan and 255 Javelin missiles to Australia in the latest arms deal aimed at countering China.
The Japan deal with Northrop Grumman is valued at $1.4 billion, while the Australia sale of Lockheed Martin Javelin anti-armor missiles is worth $60 million.
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The Rundown
Washington Examiner: Previewing first GOP-led House hearing on Afghan withdrawal: ‘Stunning failure of leadership’
Washington Examiner: Xi Jinping leads Chinese officials in warning US against ‘suppression’ of China
Washington Examiner: Chinese foreign minister warns of ‘conflict and confrontation’ with the US
Washington Examiner: Biden may deter China by revealing its assistance to Russia, Intelligence Committee chairman says
Washington Examiner: Bipartisan lawmakers partner with White House on legislation to ban TikTok
Washington Examiner: Biden requirements could undercut bipartisan chip subsidies meant to counter China
Washington Examiner: Top US high school collaborated with Chinese state military-affiliated institution
Washington Examiner: Putin’s war in Ukraine stokes fears that China’s Xi will build empire of his own
Washington Examiner: Lindsey Graham floats bill to ‘set the stage to use military’ against drug cartels
Washington Examiner: Comer claims it was a ‘mistake’ for Trump not to bomb Mexican meth labs
Washington Examiner: Capitol Police chief blasts Tucker Carlson for saying officers acted as ‘tour guides’ on Jan. 6
Washington Examiner: McCarthy defends release of Jan. 6 footage to Tucker Carlson
Washington Examiner: GOP senators react to Tucker Carlson’s segment on Jan. 6: ‘It’s bulls***’
Washington Examiner: Top five takeaways: What to know about the Jan. 6 footage released by Tucker Carlson
Washington Examiner: COVID-19 origins to be unsealed under House declassification bill once ignored by Pelosi
Washington Examiner: Nikki Haley fires back at Pompeo: ‘I was a damn good UN ambassador’
Washington Post: Intelligence officials suspect Ukraine partisans behind Nord Stream bombings, rattling Kyiv’s allies
New York Times: Clues Emerge In Bid to Solve Pipeline Attack
AP: Russian Wagner Group chief claims extended gains in Bakhmut
AP: Ukraine military identifies soldier seen in grisly war video
AP: Student gets 8 years in prison for criticizing Ukraine war
19fortyfive.com: This Video Proves Putin’s Old T-72 Tanks Are No Match for U.S. Artillery Shells
19fortyfive.com: Russia’s Lethal Su-35 Fighter: A Boon for Iran’s Air Force?
New York Times: The Daring Ruse That Exposed China’s Campaign to Steal American Secrets
Wall Street Journal: Kevin McCarthy to Meet With Taiwan’s President When She Visits U.S.
AP: Taiwan suspects Chinese ships cut islands’ internet cables
19fortyfive.com: F-22 Raptor: Why It Just Might Be America’s Best Fighter Jet
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Kendall Reveals New Details on Air Force Plans: 1,000 CCAs, 200 NGAD Fighters
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Brown’s Future Operating Concept: ‘Airpower is the Answer’
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Saltzman Unveils ‘Competitive Endurance’ Theory to Guide Space Force
Washington Post: Opinion: Max Boot: Democrats and Republicans agree on China. That’s a problem.
Washington Examiner: Opinion: Tom Rogan: What Max Boot gets wrong about China alarmism
Washington Post: Opinion: What would a win in Ukraine look like? Retired Gen. Jack Keane explains.
Calendar
WEDNESDAY | MARCH 8
6:25 a.m. Stockholm, Sweden — NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg speaks to reporters as he arrives at the meeting of Foreign Affairs Council of the European Union with Defence Ministers https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news
10 a.m. 216 Hart — Senate Select Committee on Intelligence annual hearing: “Worldwide Threats,” with testimony from heads of U.S. intelligence agencies, including Avril Haines, director of national intelligence; William Burns, director, Central Intelligence Agency; Christopher Wray, director, Federal Bureau of Investigation; Gen. Paul Nakasone, director, National Security Agency; and Lt. Gen. Scott Berrier, director, Defense Intelligence Agency https://www.intelligence.senate.gov/hearings
10 a.m. HVC-210 U.S. Capitol — House Foreign Affairs Committee hearing: “During and After the Fall of Kabul: Examining the Administration’s Emergency Evacuation from Afghanistan,” with testimony from Aidan Gunderson, former Army specialist; Francis Hoang, executive chairman, Allied Airlift 21; Peter Lucier, Team America Relief; and retired Lt. Col. David Scott Mann, founder, Task Force Pineapple https://foreignaffairs.house.gov/hearing/during-and-after-the-fall-of-kabul
10 a.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Committee hearing: “U.S. Military Posture and National Security Challenges in North and South America,” with testimony from Melissa Dalton, assistant secretary of defense for homeland defense and hemispheric affairs; Gen. Glen VanHerck, commander, U.S. Northern Command; and Gen. Laura Richardson, commander, U.S. Southern Command https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings/full-committee
10 a.m. 1957 E St. NW— George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs Korea Policy Forum on “South Korea’s Nuclear Armament Debate” https://calendar.gwu.edu/event/korea_policy_forum
10:30 a.m. — National Council on U.S.-Arab Relations virtual discussion: “Weathering Chinese and Russian Competition in Arabia and the Gulf: Implications for U.S. Interests, Policies, and Strategy,” with David Rundell, author of Vision or Mirage: Saudi Arabia at the Crossroads; Michael Gfoeller, consultant on foreign affairs and international security; retired Army Col. Abbas Dahouk, former Army attache at the U.S. embassy in Saudi Arabia; and John Duke Anthony, founding president and CEO of NCUSAR https://www.youtube.com/watch
12 p.m. — Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft virtual discussion: “From Minsk to Lasting Peace in Ukraine,” with Dominique Arel, associate professor at the University of Ottawa and co-author of Ukraine’s Unnamed War; and Jesse Driscoll, associate professor of political science at the University of California at San Diego and co-author of Ukraine’s Unnamed War https://quincyinst.org/event/from-minsk-to-lasting-peace-in-ukraine/
12 p.m. — Association of the U.S. Army’s “Noon Report” webinar on Army’s efforts to reduce harmful behaviors and prevent suicide with James Helis, director of the Army Resilience Directorate, and Chaplain Maj. Gen. Thomas Solhjem, the Army’s chief of chaplains https://info.ausa.org
3 p.m. — 2118 Rayburn —House Armed Services Strategic Forces Subcommittee hearing: “FY24 Strategic Forces Posture,” with testimony from John Plumb, assistant secretary of defense for space policy; Gen. Anthony Cotton, commander, U.S. Strategic Command; Army Gen. James Dickinson, commander, U.S. Space Command; and Gen. Glen VanHerck, commander, U.S. Northern Command and North American Aerospace Defense Command https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings/strategic-forces
4 p.m. 1030 15th St. NW — Atlantic Council book discussion on Hand-Off: The foreign policy George W. Bush passed to Barack Obama, with author and former national security adviser Stephen Hadley, principal at Rice, Hadley, Gates & Manuel LLC https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event
THURSDAY | MARCH 9
8 a.m. 2043 Rayburn — Amphibious Warship Industrial Base Coalition “Congressional Forum,” with Marine Corps Commandant Gen. David Berger; Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI); Sen. Roger Wicker (R-MS); Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-WI); Rep. Rob Wittman (R-VA); and Rep. Joe Courtney (D-CT) https://amphibiouswarship.org/congressional-forum
8:30 a.m. 1740 Massachusetts Ave. NW — Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies and the William J. Perry Center for Hemispheric Defense Studies fifth annual “Forum on Security Challenges in Latin America” https://sais.jhu.edu/campus-events
9:30 a.m. G50 Dirksen — Senate Armed Services Committee hearing: “U.S. Strategic Command and U.S. Space Command in review of the Defense Authorization Request for Fiscal Year 2024 and the Future Years Defense Program,” with testimony from Gen. Anthony Cotton, commander, U.S. Strategic Command; and Army Gen. James Dickinson, commander, U.S. Space Command https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings
9:30 a.m. 2212 Rayburn — House Armed Services Cyber, Information Technologies, and Innovation Subcommittee hearing: “Defense in a Digital Era: Artificial Intelligence, Information Technology, and Securing the Department of Defense,” with testimony from John Sherman, DOD chief information officer; and Craig Martell, DOD chief digital and artificial intelligence officer https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings/cyber-information-technologies
9:30 a.m. — Henry Stimson Center virtual discussion: “The Biden Administration’s New U.S. Conventional Arms Transfer Policy,” with Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Regional Security Mira Resnick; Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor Christopher Le Mon; Annie Shiel, U.S. advocacy director at the Center for Civilians in Conflict; and Dak Hardwick, vice president of international affairs at the Aerospace Industries Association https://www.stimson.org/event/the-biden-administrations
9:30 a.m. — Center for a New American Security virtual discussion: “Against All Odds: Supporting Civil Society and Human Rights in Taliban-Controlled Afghanistan,” with State Department Special Envoy for Afghan Women, Girls and Human Rights Rina Amiri; former Afghanistan Independent Human Rights Commission Chairwoman Shaharzad Akbar, executive director of Rawadari; Aref Dostyar, senior adviser at the University of Notre Dame’s Kroc Institute; and Anne Richard, Afghanistan coordination lead at Freedom House https://www.cnas.org/events/virtual-event-against-all-odds
10 a.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Military Personnel Subcommittee hearing: “Senior Enlisted Leader Perspective,” with testimony from Sgt. Maj. of the Army Michael Grinston; Master Chief Petty Officer of the Navy James Honea; Chief Master Sgt. of the Air Force Joanne Bass; Sgt. Major of the Marine Corps Troy Black; and Chief Master Sgt. of the Space Force Roger Towberman https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings/military-personnel-subcommittee
10:30 a.m. 14th and F Sts. NW — Governor of Okinawa, Japan, Denny Tamaki news conference. Email Mark Olson, [email protected]
11 a.m. — Government Executive Media Group visual discussion: “The State of the Navy,” as part of the State of Defense series https://d1stateofdefense.com/
1 p.m. 2212 Rayburn — House Armed Services Intelligence and Special Operations Subcommittee hearing: “U.S. Special Operations Forces and Command — Challenges and Resource Priorities for Fiscal Year 2024,” with testimony from Christopher Maier, assistant secretary of defense, special operations and low intensity conflict; Army Gen. Bryan Fenton, commander, U.S. Special Operations Command https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings/intelligence-and-special-operations
4 p.m. 2130 H St. NW — Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft virtual discussion with Governor of Okinawa, Japan, Denny Tamaki, on “The Islands’ Changing Security Situation” https://quincyinst.org/event/okinawa-governor-tamaki
4 p.m. 1521 16th St. NW — Institute of World Politics lecture: “The U.S.-Philippines Alliance,” with Philippines Ambassador to the U.S. Jose Manuel Romualdez https://www.iwp.edu/events/the-u-s-philippines-alliance
FRIDAY | MARCH 10
8:15 a.m. 11493 Sunset Hills Rd., Reston, Va.— Government Executive Media Group Power Breakfast discussion: “Doing Business with the Air Force,” focusing on artificial intelligence and information technology, with Air Force Deputy Chief Information Officer Winston Beauchamp https://washingtontechnology.com/feature/Doing-Business-with-the-Air-Force/
9 a.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Strategic Forces Subcommittee hearing: “U.S. and Adversary Hypersonic Programs,” with testimony from Michael White, principal director for hypersonic, Office of the Director of Defense Research and Engineering (Modernization); Michael Horowitz, director, DOD Emerging Capabilities Policy Office; Vice Adm. Johnny Wolfe, director, strategic systems programs, U.S. Navy; Lt. Gen. Robert Rasch, director, hypersonics, directed energy, space, U.S. Army; Lt. Gen. Donna Shipton, military deputy, Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Air Force for Acquisition, Technology and Logistics; and Paul Freisthler, chief scientist for science and technology, Defense Intelligence Agency https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings/strategic-forces
10 a.m. — U.S. Institute of Peace virtual discussion: “Are China’s Intentions Toward Taiwan Changing?” with Alexander Chieh-cheng Huang, professor, Tamkang University’s Institute of Strategic Studies; Phil Saunders, director, National Defense University’s Center for the Study of Chinese Military Affairs; Joel Wuthnow, senior research fellow, National Defense University Center for the Study of Chinese Military Affairs; Andrew Scobell, distinguished fellow, USIP; and moderator Jennifer Staats, director, East and Southeast Asia Programs, USIP
https://www.usip.org/events/are-chinas-intentions-toward-taiwan-changing
10 a.m. — Hudson Institute virtual discussion: “Support for Ukraine’s Defense in the 118th Congress,” with Rep. Seth Moulton (D-MA) https://www.hudson.org/events/support-ukraine-defense-118th-congress
MONDAY | MARCH 20
10 a.m. — Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies “Aerospace Nation” webinar with Gen. Kenneth Wilsbach, commander, Pacific Air Forces, air component commander, U.S. Indo-Pacific Command. Register: https://mitchellaerospacepower.org/event/march-20
QUOTE OF THE DAY “I hate him passionately. … What he’s good at is destroying things. He’s the undisputed world champion of that. He could easily destroy us if we play it wrong.” Fox Host Tucker Carlson on former President Donald Trump, in a Jan. 4, 2021, text to a colleague