Retreat or retrench? As Ukraine fights on in Bakhmut, Austin says its fall would not be a setback
Jamie McIntyre
NOT AN ‘OPERATIONAL OR STRATEGIC SETBACK’: There is a raging debate over whether it’s time for Ukraine to give up defending the bombed-out and mostly deserted town of Bakhmut after seven months of brutal combat. The fighting has turned what used to be a small town of 70,000 into a killing field that inflicted heavy losses on Russia’s penal units used as cannon fodder by the Wagner mercenary group.
“If the Ukrainians decide to reposition in some of the terrain that’s west of Bakhmut, I would not view that as an operational or a strategic setback. I think, you know, there is some very defensible terrain in that area,” Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told reporters traveling with him to the Middle East. “I think it’s more of a symbolic value than it is a strategic and operational value. So the fall of Bakhmut won’t necessarily mean that the Russians have changed the tide of this fight.”
Austin has advised the Ukrainians privately to husband their forces for the major spring counteroffensive planned for the May-June time frame when, instead of a deadly war of attrition over what is now a piece of ground reduced to rubble, they will be able to conduct sophisticated maneuver warfare to break through Russian lines, thanks to tanks and training supplied by the West.
“They’re building combat power. They’re training troops. They’re receiving new platforms, and we’ve talked about some of those, the Bradley Fighting Vehicle, which is a really good capability, Strykers, Marders and CB90s. And that training is going on all around Europe,” Austin said. “So I think at the end of the day, the Ukrainians are going to have some pretty good combat capability when all is said and done.”
THE WAGNER WAY OF WAR: Aside from the symbolic value of denying Russia a battlefield victory, the Ukrainians believe they are significantly attriting Russia’s manpower and munition supplies each day they hold onto Bakhmut. One report cites a NATO intelligence assessment that for every Ukrainian death, five Russians are killed.
While the forces led by Wagner mercenary head Yevgeny Prigozhin have been slightly more effective than the hapless regular Russian army, the tactics employed are “unthinkable” by Western standards, says Austin.
“They’ve used convicts, prisoners to kind of lead their charge routinely,” Austin said. “What I do see on a daily basis is the Russians continuing to pour in a lot of ill-trained and ill-equipped troops, and those troops are very quickly meeting their demise. I think we’ll continue to see that with the Russians going forward.”
Former Supreme NATO Commander retired Gen. Wes Clark says the West should be careful about underestimating Russian President Vladimir Putin’s willingness to sacrifice soldiers for anything he can call a victory.
“If you’re an American commander or Ukrainian commander, and you’re losing 30,000 troops over that piece of ground, that’s really significant,” Clark said on CNN. “But if you’re a Russian commander and they’re pushing those troops forward and say ‘use them up, use them up, use them up,’ and you got to break through in Bakhmut or you significantly degrade the Ukrainians, on balance, from the Russian perspective, it might be worth it.”
UKRAINIAN FORCES INFLICT ‘HIGH CASUALTIES’ AS BATTLE FOR BAKHMUT RAGES
Good Tuesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Conrad Hoyt. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense.
CLICK HERE TO SIGN UP OR READ BACK ISSUES OF DAILY ON DEFENSE
NOTE TO READERS: Daily on Defense will be on spring break the week of March 20 to 24. We’ll return to your inbox and online Monday, March 27.
Subscribe today to the Washington Examiner magazine and get Washington Briefing: politics and policy stories that will keep you up to date with what’s going on in Washington. SUBSCRIBE NOW: Just $1.00 an issue!
HAPPENING TODAY: NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg is in Sweden for a meeting of the Foreign Affairs Council of the European Union. With Sweden’s membership in NATO still being blocked by Turkey, Stoltenberg will hold a joint news conference with Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson around 12:25 p.m. Washington time. Livestreamed on https://www.nato.int
In remarks yesterday to European Commission parliamentarians in Brussels, Stoltenberg once again underscored that NATO allies must remain prepared to support Ukraine for the long haul.
HAPPENING TOMORROW: There are a lot of congressional hearings this time of year in Washington, but tomorrow at 10 a.m. in the Hart Senate Office Building is one of the big ones. The must-see annual event features a rare gathering of the heads of the major U.S. intelligence agencies, including Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines, CIA Director William Burns, FBI Director Christopher Wray, NSA Director Gen. Paul Nakasone, and DIA Director Lt. Gen. Scott Berrier. The Senate Select Committee on Intelligence annual hearing: “Worldwide Threats,” will be livestreamed at https://www.intelligence.senate.gov/hearings
HAPPENING THIS WEEK: On Thursday, we’ll get the first peek at President Joe Biden’s proposed federal budget for fiscal year 2024, which begins Oct. 1. Biden is scheduled to unveil his spending plan at an event in Philadelphia, where he’ll give a speech on “investing in America.”
The White House says the budget plan will “continue to lower costs for families, protect and strengthen Social Security and Medicare, reduce the deficit, and more.”
The Pentagon plans to roll out the details of its budget Monday, with a full day of briefings in which each of the military services detail their requests.
Traditionally, the president’s proposed budget is just a starting point for Congress, which over the coming months will attempt to reach a bipartisan consensus. In recent years, the defense budget has increased significantly over the White House’s request.
UKRAINE’S LATEST HERO: A viral video of what appears to be the execution of a Ukrainian soldier who dared to say “Glory to Ukraine” to Russian troops as he puffed on a cigarette has sparked outrage in Ukraine as well as an outpouring of tribute art to the as-yet unidentified man.
“Today, a video has emerged of the occupiers brutally killing a warrior who bravely said to their faces: ‘Glory to Ukraine!’ I want us all to respond to his words together, in unity: ‘Glory to the Hero! Glory to the Heroes! Glory to Ukraine!” said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in his nightly video address.
“And we will find the murderers,” he vowed. “In Ukraine, we will always hear: “Glory to Ukraine!”. And millions will always respond: “Glory to the Heroes!” It will always be like that. Ukraine will not forget the feat of each and every one whose lives gave freedom to Ukraine forever.”
Executing unarmed prisoners of war is a war crime, one of the thousands Russia is accused of committing.
HOW HARD IS IT TO FLY AN F-16? That seems to be the question that the Pentagon is trying to get a handle on by bringing two experienced Ukrainian fighter pilots to the U.S. to show what they can do on an F-16 flight simulator.
A military official tells Washington Examiner defense reporter Mike Brest that the two Ukrainian pilots are in Arizona for what was described as a “familiarization event.”
The Ukrainians have been quick to adapt to American technology, but the Pentagon argues it will take months to train them on the F-16, and longer to train the mechanics to keep them flying. The Ukrainians insist they could fly the “Vipers” within days.
Having flown a two-seat D-model F-16 myself from the backseat in a demonstration flight, I can tell you the single-engine plane is highly maneuverable and the basics are pretty straightforward. But I’m not a pilot, and I didn’t perform any of the aerobatic maneuvers that would be required in combat. Nor was I given any training on the targeting or weapons systems.
“I think eventually we will get F-16s for the Ukrainians, but in the meantime that is not really what they need,” said former Joint Chiefs Chairman retired Adm. Mike Mullen on CNN. “They need the kind of artillery, more HIMARS, more precision-guided munitions to be able to strike deep at the Russians and have the kind of impact they have had in the past.”
“It’s going to take a little more time to develop that capability, to get them to a point where the F-16s would be handled in an optimum way,” Mullen told CNN’s Christiane Amanpour.
TWO UKRAINIAN PILOTS IN US FOR TRAINING EVALUATION ON FIGHTER AIRCRAFT
The Rundown
Washington Examiner: Austin makes unannounced visit to Iraq as 20-year anniversary of invasion approaches
Washington Examiner: Ukrainian forces inflict ‘high casualties’ as battle for Bakhmut rages
Washington Examiner: Two Ukrainian pilots in US for training evaluation on fighter aircraft
Washington Examiner: Lloyd Austin embarks on trip to Middle East to reassure allies
Washington Examiner: Chinese President Xi Jinping issues rare rebuke of US for ‘suppression against us’
Washington Examiner: Putin and Iranian leader Raisi discuss ‘joint infrastructure projects’
Washington Examiner: UN nuclear watchdog hints at reviving Iran nuclear deal: ‘Spirit of collaboration’
Washington Examiner: Former Trump adviser says he’ll ‘likely’ support a different candidate in 2024
Washington Examiner: Opinion: US unprepared as China boosts preparations for Taiwan war
Wall Street Journal: The U.S. Is Not Yet Ready For ‘Great Power’ Conflict
Breaking Defense: China Outpacing U.S. In Critical Tech Research ‘Should Be A Wake Up Call’: Report
New York Times: Ukraine Signals It Will Keep Battling for Bakhmut to Drain Russia
Washington Post: Russia advances in Bakhmut by sending waves of mercenaries to certain death
New York Times: Ukraine Claims A Drone Strike On A Military Target Inside Russia
New York Times: He Heeded Russia’s Call to Enlist. Five Months Later, He Was Dead.
WAVY-TV: USS Gerald R. Ford Strike Group Commences Testing For Final Pre-Deployment Certification
19fortyfive.com: Sixth-Generation Aircraft: How the B-21 Raider Will Transform Air Warfare
19fortyfive.com: New Footage Shows Ukraine Special Forces Attack Russian Tanks with Drone
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Ukraine Has Lost 60 Aircraft, Taken Down 70 in Russian Invasion, Hecker Says
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Lockheed Martin Starts Flying F-35s Again
Air & Space Forces Magazine: USAF Shakes Up Its Plan for Tankers: Fewer ‘Traditional’ Refuelers, Focus on Stealth Future
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Chinese Balloon Means NORAD Now Getting Proper Attention, VanHerck Says
Stars and Stripes: Female 4-Stars Discuss Sexism In The Service, Say The Military Is ‘Much Better’ For Women Now
Calendar
TUESDAY | MARCH 7
9 a.m. 14th and F Sts. NW — University of Oklahoma’s Center for Intelligence and National Security and the University of Oklahoma Gaylord College of Journalism and Mass Communication “2023 Global Security Forum,” with James Roscoe, deputy head of mission at the British Embassy to the U.S.; former Japanese National Security adviser Shigeru Kitamura; Simon McGee, former U.K. Cabinet Office director of government communication; and Feroz Bashari, former director of communications in the Afghanistan office of the president https://www.press.org/events/2023-global-security-forum
9:30 a.m. G50 Dirksen — Senate Armed Services Committee hearing: “The Posture Of U.S. Special Operations Command and U.S. Cyber Command in review of the Defense Authorization Request For Fiscal Year 2024 and the Future Years Defense,” with testimony from Christopher Maier, assistant secretary of defense for special operations and low-intensity conflict; Gen. Bryan Fenton, commander, U.S. Special Operations Command; and Gen. Paul Nakasone, commander, U.S. Cyber Command, director, National Security Agency, chief, Central Security Service https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings
9:30 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “A Transatlantic Partnership: The U.S. and Lithuania,” with Lithuanian Minister of Foreign Affairs Gabrielius Landsbergis https://www.csis.org/events/transatlantic-partnership-us-and-lithuania
9:30 a.m. Arlington, Va — Association of Defense Communities National Summit with Army Secretary Christine Wormuth; Army National Guard Director Lt. Gen. Jon Jensen; and Brendan Owens, assistant secretary of defense for energy, installations, and environment https://adcsummit.org/#agenda
10 a.m. 192 Dirksen — Senate Appropriations Subcommittee on Defense hearing: “The Department of Defense Health Program, with testimony from Assistant Secretary of Defense for Health Affairs Dr. Lester Martinez-Lopez; Defense Health Agency Director Lt. Gen. Telita Crosland; Army Surgeon General Lt. Gen. Scott Dingle; Navy Surgeon General Rear Adm. Bruce Gillingham; and Air Force Surgeon General Lt. Gen. Robert Miller https://www.appropriations.senate.gov/hearings
11 a.m. — Washington Post Live virtual discussion: “China, Russia, and bipartisanship,” with House Intelligence Chairman Mike Turner (R-OH); and House Intelligence ranking member Jim Himes (D-CT) https://www.washingtonpost.com/washington-post-live
12 p.m. Stockholm, Sweden — NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg joint press conference with Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news
12 p.m. — Government Executive Media Group virtual Emerging Technology and Modernization Summit, with Lisa Costa, chief technology and innovation officer for the U.S. Space Force https://emergingtechmodsummit.nextgov.com
5 p.m. 1521 16th St. NW — Institute of World Politics lecture: “The War in Ukraine: A Belgian Perspective,” with Belgian Ambassador to the U.S. Jean-Arthur Regibeau https://www.iwp.edu/events/the-war-in-ukraine-a-belgian-perspective
WEDNESDAY | MARCH 8
6:25 a.m. Stockholm, Sweden — NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg speaks to reporters as he arrives at the meeting of Foreign Affairs Council of the European Union with Defence Ministers https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news
10 a.m. 216 Hart — Senate Select Committee on Intelligence annual hearing: “Worldwide Threats,” with testimony from heads of U.S. intelligence agencies, including Avril Haines, director of national intelligence; William Burns, director, Central Intelligence Agency; Christopher Wray, director, Federal Bureau of Investigation; Gen. Paul Nakasone, director, National Security Agency; and Lt. Gen. Scott Berrier, director, Defense Intelligence Agency https://www.intelligence.senate.gov/hearings
10 a.m. HVC-210 U.S. Capitol — House Foreign Affairs Committee hearing: “During and After the Fall of Kabul: Examining the Administration’s Emergency Evacuation from Afghanistan,” with testimony from Aidan Gunderson, former Army specialist; Francis Hoang, executive chairman, Allied Airlift 21; Peter Lucier, Team America Relief; and retired Lt. Col. David Scott Mann, founder, Task Force Pineapple https://foreignaffairs.house.gov/hearing/during-and-after-the-fall-of-kabul
10 a.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Committee hearing: “U.S. Military Posture and National Security Challenges in North and South America,” with testimony from Melissa Dalton, assistant secretary of defense for homeland defense and hemispheric affairs; Gen. Glen VanHerck, commander, U.S. Northern Command; and Gen. Laura Richardson, commander, U.S. Southern Command https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings/full-committee
10 a.m. 1957 E St. NW— George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs Korea Policy Forum on “South Korea’s Nuclear Armament Debate” https://calendar.gwu.edu/event/korea_policy_forum
10:30 a.m. — National Council on U.S.-Arab Relations virtual discussion: “Weathering Chinese and Russian Competition in Arabia and the Gulf: Implications for U.S. Interests, Policies, and Strategy,” with David Rundell, author of Vision or Mirage: Saudi Arabia at the Crossroads; Michael Gfoeller, consultant on foreign affairs and international security; retired Army Col. Abbas Dahouk, former Army attache at the U.S. embassy in Saudi Arabia; and John Duke Anthony, founding president and CEO of NCUSAR https://www.youtube.com/watch
12 p.m. — Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft virtual discussion: “From Minsk to Lasting Peace in Ukraine,” with Dominique Arel, associate professor at the University of Ottawa and co-author of Ukraine’s Unnamed War; and Jesse Driscoll, associate professor of political science at the University of California at San Diego and co-author of Ukraine’s Unnamed War https://quincyinst.org/event/from-minsk-to-lasting-peace-in-ukraine/
12 p.m. — Association of the U.S. Army’s “Noon Report” webinar on Army’s efforts to reduce harmful behaviors and prevent suicide with James Helis, director of the Army Resilience Directorate, and Chaplain Maj. Gen. Thomas Solhjem, the Army’s chief of chaplains https://info.ausa.org
3 p.m. — 2118 Rayburn —House Armed Services Strategic Forces Subcommittee hearing: “FY24 Strategic Forces Posture,” with testimony from John Plumb, assistant secretary of defense for space policy; Gen. Anthony Cotton, commander, U.S. Strategic Command; Army Gen. James Dickinson, commander, U.S. Space Command; and Gen. Glen VanHerck, commander, U.S. Northern Command and North American Aerospace Defense Command https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings/strategic-forces
4 p.m. 1030 15th St. NW — Atlantic Council book discussion on Hand-Off: The foreign policy George W. Bush passed to Barack Obama, with author and former national security adviser Stephen Hadley, principal at Rice, Hadley, Gates & Manuel LLC https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event
THURSDAY | MARCH 9
8 a.m. 2043 Rayburn — Amphibious Warship Industrial Base Coalition “Congressional Forum,” with Marine Corps Commandant Gen. David Berger; Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI); Sen. Roger Wicker (R-MS); Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-WI); Rep. Rob Wittman (R-VA); and Rep. Joe Courtney (D-CT) https://amphibiouswarship.org/congressional-forum
8:30 a.m. 1740 Massachusetts Ave. NW — Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies and the William J. Perry Center for Hemispheric Defense Studies fifth annual “Forum on Security Challenges in Latin America” https://sais.jhu.edu/campus-events
9:30 a.m. G50 Dirksen — Senate Armed Services Committee hearing: “U.S. Strategic Command and U.S. Space Command in review of the Defense Authorization Request for Fiscal Year 2024 and the Future Years Defense Program,” with testimony from Gen. Anthony Cotton, commander, U.S. Strategic Command; and Army Gen. James Dickinson, commander, U.S. Space Command https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings
9:30 a.m. 2212 Rayburn — House Armed Services Cyber, Information Technologies, and Innovation Subcommittee hearing: “Defense in a Digital Era: Artificial Intelligence, Information Technology, and Securing the Department of Defense,” with testimony from John Sherman, DOD chief information officer; and Craig Martell, DOD chief digital and artificial intelligence officer https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings/cyber-information-technologies
9:30 a.m. — Henry Stimson Center virtual discussion: “The Biden Administration’s New U.S. Conventional Arms Transfer Policy,” with Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Regional Security Mira Resnick; Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor Christopher Le Mon; Annie Shiel, U.S. advocacy director at the Center for Civilians in Conflict; and Dak Hardwick, vice president of international affairs at the Aerospace Industries Association https://www.stimson.org/event/the-biden-administrations
9:30 a.m. — Center for a New American Security virtual discussion: “Against All Odds: Supporting Civil Society and Human Rights in Taliban-Controlled Afghanistan,” with State Department Special Envoy for Afghan Women, Girls and Human Rights Rina Amiri; former Afghanistan Independent Human Rights Commission Chairwoman Shaharzad Akbar, executive director of Rawadari; Aref Dostyar, senior adviser at the University of Notre Dame’s Kroc Institute; and Anne Richard, Afghanistan coordination lead at Freedom House https://www.cnas.org/events/virtual-event-against-all-odds
10 a.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Military Personnel Subcommittee hearing: “Senior Enlisted Leader Perspective,” with testimony from Sgt. Maj. of the Army Michael Grinston; Master Chief Petty Officer of the Navy James Honea; Chief Master Sgt. of the Air Force Joanne Bass; Sgt. Major of the Marine Corps Troy Black; and Chief Master Sgt. of the Space Force Roger Towberman https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings/military-personnel-subcommittee
10:30 a.m. 14th and F Sts. NW — Governor of Okinawa, Japan, Denny Tamaki news conference. Email Mark Olson, [email protected]
11 a.m. — Government Executive Media Group visual discussion: “The State of the Navy,” as part of the State of Defense series https://d1stateofdefense.com/
1 p.m. 2212 Rayburn — House Armed Services Intelligence and Special Operations Subcommittee hearing: “U.S. Special Operations Forces and Command — Challenges and Resource Priorities for Fiscal Year 2024,” with testimony from Christopher Maier, assistant secretary of defense, special operations and low intensity conflict; Army Gen. Bryan Fenton, commander, U.S. Special Operations Command https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings/intelligence-and-special-operations
4 p.m. 2130 H St. NW — Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft virtual discussion with Governor of Okinawa, Japan, Denny Tamaki, on “The Islands’ Changing Security Situation” https://quincyinst.org/event/okinawa-governor-tamaki
4 p.m. 1521 16th St. NW — Institute of World Politics lecture: “The U.S.-Philippines Alliance,” with Philippines Ambassador to the U.S. Jose Manuel Romualdez https://www.iwp.edu/events/the-u-s-philippines-alliance
FRIDAY | MARCH 10
8:15 a.m. 11493 Sunset Hills Rd., Reston, Va.— Government Executive Media Group Power Breakfast discussion: “Doing Business with the Air Force,” focusing on artificial intelligence and information technology, with Air Force Deputy Chief Information Officer Winston Beauchamp https://washingtontechnology.com/feature/Doing-Business-with-the-Air-Force/
9 a.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Strategic Forces Subcommittee hearing: “U.S. and Adversary Hypersonic Programs,” with testimony from Michael White, principal director for hypersonic, Office of the Director of Defense Research and Engineering (Modernization); Michael Horowitz, director, DOD Emerging Capabilities Policy Office; Vice Adm. Johnny Wolfe, director, strategic systems programs, U.S. Navy; Lt. Gen. Robert Rasch, director, hypersonics, directed energy, space, U.S. Army; Lt. Gen. Donna Shipton, military deputy, Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Air Force for Acquisition, Technology and Logistics; and Paul Freisthler, chief scientist for science and technology, Defense Intelligence Agency https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings/strategic-forces
10 a.m. — U.S. Institute of Peace virtual discussion: “Are China’s Intentions Toward Taiwan Changing?” with Alexander Chieh-cheng Huang, professor, Tamkang University’s Institute of Strategic Studies; Phil Saunders, director, National Defense University’s Center for the Study of Chinese Military Affairs; Joel Wuthnow, senior research fellow, National Defense University Center for the Study of Chinese Military Affairs; Andrew Scobell, distinguished fellow, USIP; and moderator Jennifer Staats, director, East and Southeast Asia Programs, USIP
https://www.usip.org/events/are-chinas-intentions-toward-taiwan-changing
10 a.m. — Hudson Institute virtual discussion: “Support for Ukraine’s Defense in the 118th Congress,” with Rep. Seth Moulton (D-MA) https://www.hudson.org/events/support-ukraine-defense-118th-congress
MONDAY | MARCH 20
10 a.m. — Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies “Aerospace Nation” webinar with Gen. Kenneth Wilsbach, commander, Pacific Air Forces, air component commander, U.S. Indo-Pacific Command. Register: https://mitchellaerospacepower.org/event/march-20
QUOTE OF THE DAY “I think Ukraine has to win enough to be seen as a winner … That’s why we need to get as much gear and munitions and support into Ukraine right now so that we don’t have to answer that question. It will be clear that Ukraine has won and Russia has lost.” Retired Adm. Mike Mullen, former chairman of the Joint Chiefs, on why this year is critical to holding together the Western allies