Not so fast: Tenacious Ukrainian defense, Russian ammo shortage thwart Russian advance on Bakhmut
Jamie McIntyre
BACK ON DEFENSE FOR NOW: Just days after crowing that the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut was on the verge of falling, the head of Russia’s Wagner mercenary group has appeared on a social media video complaining that a lack of ammunition has stalled an advance on the town, which is largely in ruins.
The Russian front lines could collapse, warned Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin on his Telegram channel on Sunday, accusing the Russian Defense Ministry of cutting off his penal brigades from resupply. “For now, we are trying to figure out the reason: is it just ordinary bureaucracy or a betrayal,” said Prigozhin.
Meanwhile, the Ukrainian defenders “are continuing to inflict high casualties against the advancing mixed Russian forces,” according to the latest analysis from the Institute for the Study of War, which added that the Ukrainians are “likely setting robust conditions for a future Ukrainian counteroffensive.”
“The Ukrainian defense of Bakhmut remains strategically sound as it continues to consume Russian manpower and equipment as long as Ukrainian forces do not suffer excessive casualties,” the ISW said. “Ukrainian forces are unlikely to withdraw from Bakhmut all at once and may pursue a gradual fighting withdrawal to exhaust Russian forces through continued urban warfare.”
RUSSIA INCHING CLOSER TO CAPTURING BAKHMUT IN UKRAINE
ZELENSKY: ‘PAINFUL AND CHALLENGING’: “Early Saturday, Ukrainian assault brigades went on the attack,” reported the New York Times, which has reporters on the front lines. “Over the weekend, hundreds of troops joined the counteroffensive, mounting assaults from the ground and pounding Russian positions with artillery from the surrounding hills.”
In his Sunday night video address, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called the monthslong battle for Bakhmut “one of the toughest battles, painful and challenging” and singled out each unit fighting there in what he called “a special tribute to the bravery, strength, and invincibility of the warriors fighting in Donbas.”
“This week is another week when our warriors and everyone who helps defend the state made Ukraine’s victory even closer. They repelled assaults, destroyed the occupier, undermined enemy positions and logistics, and protected our borders and cities,” Zelensky said. “I am grateful to all those who are currently in combat! I thank everyone whose life saves the life of Ukraine!”
“Even before Ukraine stepped up its attack on Russians in Bakhmut on the weekend, its forces had moved to beat Russian troops back from the last main highway into the city. That preserved both a supply line that has helped Ukrainian soldiers tie down the Russian offensive for months and an exit route for them should they decide to retreat,” according to the New York Times.
US ANNOUNCES $400 MILLION MILITARY AID PACKAGE FOR UKRAINE
MORE FROM THE FRONT: A New York Times photographer, Tyler Hicks, was allowed to embed reporters with Ukraine’s 79th brigade along the farthest edge of the front lines, where Russian troops are within eyesight, a mere 300 yards away.
“In the mud and muck, with frozen patches of earth giving way to sloppy, thick clay, there are many ways to kill and be killed. Russian helicopters regularly strafe Ukrainian trenches. The Russians bombard Ukrainian positions with heavy artillery from miles away and send small bands of soldiers to try to infiltrate Ukrainian trenches in the dark of night,” the dispatch from the front reads.
“The Ukrainians hit back hard. And in this pocket of the front, near the destroyed town of Marinka in the Donetsk region, they have largely thwarted every Russian attempt to take new ground for a year.”
‘URBAN WARFARE IS UNAVOIDABLE,’ US GENERAL FEARS
Good Monday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Conrad Hoyt. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense.
CLICK HERE TO SIGN UP OR READ BACK ISSUES OF DAILY ON DEFENSE
NOTE TO READERS: Daily on Defense will be on spring break the week of March 20 to 24. We’ll return to your inbox and online Monday, March 27.
Subscribe today to the Washington Examiner magazine and get Washington Briefing: politics and policy stories that will keep you up to date with what’s going on in Washington. SUBSCRIBE NOW: Just $1.00 an issue!
HAPPENING TODAY: Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin arrived in Jordan over the weekend, the first stop on a Middle East trip that will also take him to Egypt and Israel.
Austin will consult about the war in Ukraine, but Iran is likely to be at the top of his agenda, said a senior defense official in a briefing for reporters Friday, who added that Austin will be discussing the “full constellation of Iran-associated threats — whether it’s Iranian cultivation of nonstate actors and proxies through its arming, training, and funding of violent proxies that threaten our forces, that threaten many of our partners such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE, Iranian aggression at sea, cyber threats, and also air threats, obviously one-way attack drones and Iran’s ballistic missile program.”
“In Israel, he will reaffirm his ironclad commitment to Israel’s security and Israel’s inherent right to self-defense. He will consult on the way forward with respect to Iran,” the official said. “He’ll also be quite frank with Israeli leaders about his concerns regarding the cycle of violence in the West Bank and consult on what steps Israeli leaders can take to meaningfully restore calm before the upcoming holidays.”
CHINA HIKES DEFENSE SPENDING 7.2%: At today’s meeting of China’s National People’s Congress in Beijing, China announced its economic goals for the year, which include a target of overall growth in the country’s GDP of around 5% and a 7.2% increase in military spending.
The increase is the 29th straight annual increase, bringing China’s publicly-disclosed defense budget to $224 billion, the world’s second highest after the United States, according to the Associated Press.
The United States and China combined account for half of the global military spending, though the U.S. defense budget of $858 billion is nearly four times what China spends.
‘CHALLENGE’ OF PREVENTING CHINESE INVASION OF TAIWAN ‘ENORMOUS,’ PENTAGON OFFICIAL WARNS
WARNER: ‘WE HAVE NEVER HAD A POTENTIAL ADVERSARY LIKE CHINA’: If there’s one issue that seems to enjoy wide bipartisan agreement, it’s the threat posed by China and the prospect of war in the near future over the future of Taiwan.
“We have never had a potential adversary like China,” said Sen. Mark Warner (D-VA) on Fox News Sunday. “The Soviet Union, Russia, was military or ideological. China is investing in economic areas. They have $500 billion in intellectual property theft. And we are in competition not just on a national security basis but on the technology basis.”
“That’s why national security now includes telecommunications, satellites, artificial intelligence, quantum computing. Each of these domains, we’ve got to make the kind of investments to stay ahead,” said Warner, chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee. “I’ve got a broad bipartisan bill that I’m launching with my friend John Thune (R-SD), who will be the Republican lead, where we’re going to say, in terms of foreign technology coming into America, we’ve got to have a systemic approach to make sure we can ban or prohibit it when necessary.”
Warner’s bill would, among other things, potentially ban TikTok, owned by Chinese company ByteDance. “You have 100 million Americans on TikTok 90 minutes a day,” Warner said on Fox. “They are taking data from Americans, not keeping it safe. But what worries me more with TikTok is that this can be a propaganda tool to basically … promote ideological issues.”
THE DEBRIEF: DAVID MARK ON RARE SIGN OF BIPARTISANSHIP ON NEW CHINA SUBCOMMITTEE
JAPAN, S. KOREA MAKE AMENDS: South Korean Foreign Minister Park Jin has announced a compromise plan to settle a long-simmering dispute with Japan to compensate Koreans who were subject to slave labor during Tokyo’s 35-year colonial rule.
The agreement was hailed by President Joe Biden as paving the way for enhancing trilateral ties with the countries with the strongest interest in countering North Korea.
“Today’s announcements between the Republic of Korea and Japan mark a groundbreaking new chapter of cooperation and partnership between two of the United States’ closest allies,” Biden said in a statement issued last night. “With two historic foreign ministerial statements, President Yoon and Prime Minister Kishida are taking a critical step to forge a future for the Korean and Japanese people that is safer, more secure, and more prosperous.”
CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER
The Rundown
Washington Examiner: US announces $400 million military aid package for Ukraine
Washington Examiner: Russia inching closer to capturing Bakhmut in Ukraine
Washington Examiner: ‘Urban warfare is unavoidable,’ US general fears
Washington Examiner: ‘Challenge’ of preventing Chinese invasion of Taiwan ‘enormous,’ Pentagon official warns
Washington Examiner: The Debrief: David Mark on rare sign of bipartisanship on new China subcommittee
Washington Examiner: Lavrov stumbles into laughter as India hosts debate over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
Washington Examiner: Trump reveals plan for ‘largest domestic deportation operation in American history’
New York Times: Ukrainian Soldiers, Nearly Encircled, Push Russians Back
New York Times: This Is What Trench Warfare on the Front Line Is Like
Washington Post: Ukraine hangs on in fight for Bakhmut
AP: US Sending Bridge-Launchers to Ukraine for Spring Fight
Defense One: Come Test Your Gear Against Russian Forces, Ukrainians Urge US Defense Firms
Politico: 2 Ukrainian Pilots Are in US to Determine Fighter Jet Skills
AIr Force Times: Perennial Pilot Shortage Puts Air Force in Precarious Position
19fortyfive.com: Irregular Warfare, American Style
New York Times: They’re Exporting Billions in Arms. Just Not to Ukraine.
Asia Times: China Hints At Carrier-Borne Airpower Breakthrough
New York Times: China Sets A Post-Covid Agenda, With Xi Aiming For Growth And Power
AP: U.S., South Korea Announce Largest Field Exercises In Five Years
Breaking Defense: Not the Right Time’: US to Push Guidelines, Not Bans, at UN Meeting on Autonomous Weapons
Defense One: Sketching Out The Rules For Offensive Cyber Operations
Space News: DOD Releases Updated Guidance on ‘Responsible Behaviors in Space’
Task & Purpose: Top US General Says the Fight in Syria Is ‘Important’ for Security after Surprise Visit
New York Times: The Pilot or the Marine? Biden May Soon Announce His Pick for Top Officer
Defense One: State Of The Marine Corps 2023
Forbes: New Marine Corps Prototype Ship Signals Interesting Times For South China Sea
Air & Space Forces Magazine: In Message to Force, Austin Touts ‘Once-in-a-Generation’ Investments
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Photos: F-22s Deploy to Tinian for First Time as Part of ACE Exercise
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Here’s What USAF’s Science Board Is Studying Now
The Cipher Brief: We Have a New National Cybersecurity Strategy. Now What?
Forbes: Leidos Approach To Army’s Athena Recon Aircraft Stresses Integration Skills, Networking Experience, Analytic Objectivity
Calendar
MONDAY | MARCH 6
8 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “Deterring a Cross-Strait Conflict: Beijing’s Assessment of Evolving U.S. Strategy,” with Michael Mazarr, senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation; Elbridge Colby, co-founder and principal at the Marathon Initiative; Kristen Gunness, senior policy researcher at the RAND Corporation; and Bonnie Glaser, managing director of the German Marshall Fund’s Indo-Pacific program https://www.csis.org/events/deterring-cross-strait-conflict
9:30 a.m. — Washington Institute for Near East Policy virtual discussion: “The National Security Implications of Israel’s Judicial Debate,” with retired Israel Defense Forces Maj. Gen. Yaakov Amidror, senior fellow at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security and former Israeli national security adviser; retired Israel Defense Forces Maj. Gen. Uzi Dayan, former Israeli Knesset member; Shimrit Meir, former senior foreign affairs adviser to former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett; and Zohar Palti, WINEP international fellow and former head of the Israeli Defense Ministry Policy and Political-Military Bureau https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis
11 a.m. — Washington Post Live virtual discussion: “U.S.-China tensions,” with former deputy national security adviser Matthew Pottinger, visiting fellow at the Hoover Institution https://www.washingtonpost.com/washington-post-live
TUESDAY | MARCH 7
9 a.m. 14th and F Sts. NW — University of Oklahoma’s Center for Intelligence and National Security and the University of Oklahoma Gaylord College of Journalism and Mass Communication “2023 Global Security Forum,” with James Roscoe, deputy head of mission at the British Embassy to the U.S.; former Japanese National Security adviser Shigeru Kitamura; Simon McGee, former U.K. Cabinet Office director of government communication; and Feroz Bashari, former director of communications in the Afghanistan office of the president https://www.press.org/events/2023-global-security-forum
9:30 a.m. G50 Dirksen — Senate Armed Services Committee hearing: “The Posture Of U.S. Special Operations Command and U.S. Cyber Command in review of the Defense Authorization Request For Fiscal Year 2024 and the Future Years Defense,” with testimony from Christopher Maier, assistant secretary of defense for special operations and low-intensity conflict; Gen. Bryan Fenton, commander, U.S. Special Operations Command; and Gen. Paul Nakasone, commander, U.S. Cyber Command, director, National Security Agency, chief, Central Security Service https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings
9:30 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “A Transatlantic Partnership: The U.S. and Lithuania,” with Lithuanian Minister of Foreign Affairs Gabrielius Landsbergis https://www.csis.org/events/transatlantic-partnership-us-and-lithuania
11 a.m. — Washington Post Live virtual discussion: “China, Russia, and bipartisanship,” with House Intelligence Chairman Mike Turner (R-OH); and House Intelligence ranking member Jim Himes (D-CT) https://www.washingtonpost.com/washington-post-live
12 p.m. Stockholm, Sweden — NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg joint press conference with Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news
12 p.m. — Government Executive Media Group virtual Emerging Technology and Modernization Summit, with Lisa Costa, chief technology and innovation officer for the U.S. Space Force https://emergingtechmodsummit.nextgov.com
5 p.m. 1521 16th St. NW — Institute of World Politics lecture: “The War in Ukraine: A Belgian Perspective,” with Belgian Ambassador to the U.S. Jean-Arthur Regibeau https://www.iwp.edu/events/the-war-in-ukraine-a-belgian-perspective
WEDNESDAY | MARCH 8
6:25 a.m. Stockholm, Sweden — NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg speaks to reporters as he arrives at the meeting of Foreign Affairs Council of the European Union with Defence Ministers https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news
10 a.m. 216 Hart — Senate Select Committee on Intelligence annual hearing: “Worldwide Threats,” with testimony from heads of U.S. intelligence agencies, including Avril Haines, director of national intelligence; William Burns, director, Central Intelligence Agency; Christopher Wray, director, Federal Bureau of Investigation; Gen. Paul Nakasone, director, National Security Agency; and Lt. Gen. Scott Berrier, director, Defense Intelligence Agency https://www.intelligence.senate.gov/hearings
10 a.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Committee hearing: “U.S. Military Posture and National Security Challenges in North and South America,” with testimony from Melissa Dalton, assistant secretary of defense for homeland defense and hemispheric affairs; Gen. Glen VanHerck, commander, U.S. Northern Command; and Gen. Laura Richardson, commander, U.S. Southern Command https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings/full-committee
10 a.m. 1957 E St. NW— George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs Korea Policy Forum on “South Korea’s Nuclear Armament Debate” https://calendar.gwu.edu/event/korea_policy_forum
10:30 a.m. — National Council on U.S.-Arab Relations virtual discussion: “Weathering Chinese and Russian Competition in Arabia and the Gulf: Implications for U.S. Interests, Policies, and Strategy,” with David Rundell, author of Vision or Mirage: Saudi Arabia at the Crossroads; Michael Gfoeller, consultant on foreign affairs and international security; retired Army Col. Abbas Dahouk, former Army attache at the U.S. embassy in Saudi Arabia; and John Duke Anthony, founding president and CEO of NCUSAR https://www.youtube.com/watch
12 p.m. — Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft virtual discussion: “From Minsk to Lasting Peace in Ukraine,” with Dominique Arel, associate professor at the University of Ottawa and co-author of Ukraine’s Unnamed War; and Jesse Driscoll, associate professor of political science at the University of California at San Diego and co-author of Ukraine’s Unnamed War https://quincyinst.org/event/from-minsk-to-lasting-peace-in-ukraine/
12 p.m. — Association of the U.S. Army’s “Noon Report” webinar on Army’s efforts to reduce harmful behaviors and prevent suicide with James Helis, director of the Army Resilience Directorate, and Chaplain Maj. Gen. Thomas Solhjem, the Army’s chief of chaplains https://info.ausa.org
3 p.m. — 2118 Rayburn —House Armed Services Strategic Forces Subcommittee hearing: “FY24 Strategic Forces Posture,” with testimony from John Plumb, assistant secretary of defense for space policy; Gen. Anthony Cotton, commander, U.S. Strategic Command; Army Gen. James Dickinson, commander, U.S. Space Command; and Gen. Glen VanHerck, commander, U.S. Northern Command and North American Aerospace Defense Command https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings/strategic-forces
4 p.m. 1030 15th St. NW — Atlantic Council book discussion on Hand-Off: The foreign policy George W. Bush passed to Barack Obama, with author and former national security adviser Stephen Hadley, principal at Rice, Hadley, Gates & Manuel LLC https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event
THURSDAY | MARCH 9
8 a.m. 2043 Rayburn — Amphibious Warship Industrial Base Coalition “Congressional Forum,” with Marine Corps Commandant Gen. David Berger; Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI); Sen. Roger Wicker (R-MS); Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-WI); Rep. Rob Wittman (R-VA); and Rep. Joe Courtney (D-CT) https://amphibiouswarship.org/congressional-forum
8:30 a.m. 1740 Massachusetts Ave. NW — Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies and the William J. Perry Center for Hemispheric Defense Studies fifth annual “Forum on Security Challenges in Latin America” https://sais.jhu.edu/campus-events
9:30 a.m. G50 Dirksen — Senate Armed Services Committee hearing: “U.S. Strategic Command and U.S. Space Command in review of the Defense Authorization Request for Fiscal Year 2024 and the Future Years Defense Program,” with testimony from Gen. Anthony Cotton, commander, U.S. Strategic Command; and Army Gen. James Dickinson, commander, U.S. Space Command https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings
9:30 a.m. 2212 Rayburn — House Armed Services Cyber, Information Technologies, and Innovation Subcommittee hearing: “Defense in a Digital Era: Artificial Intelligence, Information Technology, and Securing the Department of Defense,” with testimony from John Sherman, DOD chief information officer; and Craig Martell, DOD chief digital and artificial intelligence officer https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings/cyber-information-technologies
9:30 a.m. — Henry Stimson Center virtual discussion: “The Biden Administration’s New U.S. Conventional Arms Transfer Policy,” with Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Regional Security Mira Resnick; Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor Christopher Le Mon; Annie Shiel, U.S. advocacy director at the Center for Civilians in Conflict; and Dak Hardwick, vice president of international affairs at the Aerospace Industries Association https://www.stimson.org/event/the-biden-administrations
9:30 a.m. — Center for a New American Security virtual discussion: “Against All Odds: Supporting Civil Society and Human Rights in Taliban-Controlled Afghanistan,” with State Department Special Envoy for Afghan Women, Girls and Human Rights Rina Amiri; former Afghanistan Independent Human Rights Commission Chairwoman Shaharzad Akbar, executive director of Rawadari; Aref Dostyar, senior adviser at the University of Notre Dame’s Kroc Institute; and Anne Richard, Afghanistan coordination lead at Freedom House https://www.cnas.org/events/virtual-event-against-all-odds
10 a.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Military Personnel Subcommittee hearing: “Senior Enlisted Leader Perspective,” with testimony from Sgt. Maj. of the Army Michael Grinston; Master Chief Petty Officer of the Navy James Honea; Chief Master Sgt. of the Air Force Joanne Bass; Sgt. Major of the Marine Corps Troy Black; and Chief Master Sgt. of the Space Force Roger Towberman https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings/military-personnel-subcommittee
10:30 a.m. 14th and F Sts. NW — Governor of Okinawa, Japan, Denny Tamaki news conference. Email Mark Olson, [email protected]
11 a.m. — Government Executive Media Group visual discussion: “The State of the Navy,” as part of the State of Defense series https://d1stateofdefense.com/
1 p.m. 2212 Rayburn — House Armed Services Intelligence and Special Operations Subcommittee hearing: “U.S. Special Operations Forces and Command — Challenges and Resource Priorities for Fiscal Year 2024,” with testimony from Christopher Maier, assistant secretary of defense, special operations and low intensity conflict; Army Gen. Bryan Fenton, commander, U.S. Special Operations Command https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings/intelligence-and-special-operations
4 p.m. 2130 H St. NW — Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft virtual discussion with Governor of Okinawa, Japan, Denny Tamaki, on “The Islands’ Changing Security Situation” https://quincyinst.org/event/okinawa-governor-tamaki
4 p.m. 1521 16th St. NW — Institute of World Politics lecture: “The U.S.-Philippines Alliance,” with Philippines Ambassador to the U.S. Jose Manuel Romualdez https://www.iwp.edu/events/the-u-s-philippines-alliance
FRIDAY | MARCH 10
8:15 a.m. 11493 Sunset Hills Rd., Reston, Va.— Government Executive Media Group Power Breakfast discussion: “Doing Business with the Air Force,” focusing on artificial intelligence and information technology, with Air Force Deputy Chief Information Officer Winston Beauchamp https://washingtontechnology.com/feature/Doing-Business-with-the-Air-Force/
9 a.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Strategic Forces Subcommittee hearing: “U.S. and Adversary Hypersonic Programs,” with testimony from Michael White, principal director for hypersonic, Office of the Director of Defense Research and Engineering (Modernization); Michael Horowitz, director, DOD Emerging Capabilities Policy Office; Vice Adm. Johnny Wolfe, director, strategic systems programs, U.S. Navy; Lt. Gen. Robert Rasch, director, hypersonics, directed energy, space, U.S. Army; Lt. Gen. Donna Shipton, military deputy, Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Air Force for Acquisition, Technology and Logistics; and Paul Freisthler, chief scientist for science and technology, Defense Intelligence Agency https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings/strategic-forces
10 a.m. — U.S. Institute of Peace virtual discussion: “Are China’s Intentions Toward Taiwan Changing?” with Alexander Chieh-cheng Huang, professor, Tamkang University’s Institute of Strategic Studies; Phil Saunders, director, National Defense University’s Center for the Study of Chinese Military Affairs; Joel Wuthnow, senior research fellow, National Defense University Center for the Study of Chinese Military Affairs; Andrew Scobell, distinguished fellow, USIP; and moderator Jennifer Staats, director, East and Southeast Asia Programs, USIP
https://www.usip.org/events/are-chinas-intentions-toward-taiwan-changing
10 a.m. — Hudson Institute virtual discussion: “Support for Ukraine’s Defense in the 118th Congress,” with Rep. Seth Moulton (D-MA) https://www.hudson.org/events/support-ukraine-defense-118th-congress
QUOTE OF THE DAY “For a long time, conventional wisdom was the more you bring China into the world order, the more they’re going to change. And that assumption was just plain wrong.” Sen. Mark Warner (D-VA), chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, speaking on Fox News Sunday