Will Turkey’s NATO showdown be resolved with F-16 sale?
Daniel DePetris
It’s not every day that NATO fights among itself. But the alliance is in the midst of a lingering argument that won’t go away. The issue: Sweden and Finland’s incorporation into NATO.
The dispute pits most of the alliance against Turkey, one of the 33 oldest members. The arguments rest less on whether Finland and Sweden would contribute to NATO’s collective defense and more on what Turkey considers slow implementation of a deal reached in June. That deal saw the two Nordic countries promising to review Ankara’s extradition requests of accused Kurdish militants living on their soil. The Biden administration has been urging Turkey to lift its demands ever since. In the U.S. view, Finland and Sweden are already de facto NATO members; the Senate approved the accession protocols in August in a resounding 95-1 vote.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, however, isn’t someone who rolls over and accepts a fait accompli from Washington or Europe. Erdogan continues to insist that Finland and Sweden deport what he labels as 130 Kurdish terrorists back to Turkey so they can be prosecuted. Then, and only then, Erdogan says, will the Turkish parliament debate and vote on NATO expansion. The Swedes, in particular, have resisted this demand. Given how the Turkish judicial system operates, Stockholm is concerned fulfilling those extradition requests would be akin to enabling Turkey’s authoritarian court system.
BIDEN PLAN TO SELL F-16 FIGHTER JETS TO TURKEY DRAWS DEMOCRATIC OPPOSITION
Enter the United States. The Biden administration is set to notify Congress of its intent to sell 40 advanced F-16 fighter jets to Turkey, 79 kits that would upgrade Turkey’s existing fleet of aged F-16s, as well as hundreds of bombs and missiles. The White House is careful to note that the pending sale isn’t designed to prod Erdogan into dropping his veto over NATO expansion, but it’s difficult to see the sale proceeding without the Turkish president doing exactly that.
Turkey’s veto is only compounding the country’s negative approval ratings on Capitol Hill. Lawmakers on both sides of the aisle increasingly view Erdogan as unhelpful, dictatorial, and someone who should be kicked out of NATO entirely (since the alliance doesn’t have an expulsion clause in its founding charter, throwing Turkey out is practically impossible). Sen. Robert Menendez (D-NJ) is opposed to sending Turkey any U.S. military equipment until the Turks address their democratic backsliding. As chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Menendez can essentially block the F-16 sale unilaterally.
The U.S., NATO, and Turkey are therefore engaged in a seemingly endless staring contest. The Turks want the F-16s but are unwilling to drop their veto over Swedish and Finnish membership to get them; the U.S. is willing to sell those aircraft to the Turks, but only if Erdogan changes his policy and allows the Turkish parliament to vote on Sweden and Finland’s membership bids. With neither side budging, a stalemate persists, leaving all sides feeling even more distrustful and resentful than they were before.
Yet Erdogan’s prickliness shouldn’t be surprising. The populist-nationalist has never been much of a team player. He isn’t beholden to the West and takes pains to make sure Turkey has a plethora of relationships it can fall back on. Erdogan’s foreign policy depends on toeing the line between his NATO partners, Russia (which Turkey has an extensive diplomatic and economic relationship with), and Ankara’s own national objectives. Erdogan has successfully managed to achieve this balance, even if he ends up upsetting a lot of people in the process. Turkish missiles strike U.S.-partnered Kurdish partners in Syria on the one hand, yet Turkish vessels block the Russian navy from sending ships through the Bosporus. The Turks refuse to enact sanctions against Moscow yet also facilitate an agreement to free millions of tons of Ukrainian grain shipments into the market. Erdogan does one thing to infuriate the U.S. but cancels it out by trying to be helpful on issues Washington cares about.
For many in Washington, the Turks should be in alignment 100% of the time by virtue of their status as NATO allies. But this has never been a realistic expectation. In fact, it demonstrates a naivete that is firmly entrenched in the U.S. foreign policy establishment. All states are self-interested actors, no more so than Erdogan’s Turkey.
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Daniel DePetris (@DanDePetris) is a contributor to the Washington Examiner’s Beltway Confidential blog. His opinions are his own.