President Joe Biden’s abysmal debate performance was a political earthquake, and two weeks later, we’re still feeling the aftershocks.
Exacerbating the situation for the Democrats is Biden’s selfish and irrational decision to stay in the race. No doubt he is acting upon the advice of first lady Jill Biden and son Hunter Biden, each of whom thrives on the power his presidency provides them.
Frankly, even if Joe Biden is ultimately ousted from the top of the Democratic ticket, the party is so damaged from covering up his infirmities for four years that they’ve already lost the trust of large swathes of the independent voters they need to retain the White House.
But losing the presidency is not the Democrats’ only problem at this point. Joe Biden’s continued presence as the party’s nominee will hurt his party’s chances of retaining its Senate majority and taking back control in the House.
Ahead of the debate, many Democratic Senate and House candidates were outperforming Joe Biden. But post-debate polls suggest that Democratic congressional candidates, particularly those who refuse to call for Biden to step aside, may find themselves losing what had once been winnable seats. The impact will be greatest in already tight Senate races and congressional races in swing districts.
Let me be clear: Any Democratic candidate who continues to back Joe Biden after his cognitive decline was exposed in such a humiliating, spectacular, and irredeemable way is telling voters they think it’s OK to reelect a senile president. And that will hurt them.
Although this was always going to be a tough year for Senate Democrats because the Republicans have the most favorable Senate map they’ve had in years, Joe Biden’s implosion clearly intensifies the situation.
A new series of post-debate Senate surveys released by the Remington Research Group on Wednesday suggests that the Democrats’ current struggles may already be taking a toll on down-ballot races.
In Montana, the RRG poll showed Republican challenger Tim Sheehy with a 5-point lead over incumbent Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT). This is the first poll to show Sheehy with a lead. Tester’s lead had ranged between 2 and 9 points in prior polls. But the senator remained silent after the debate. Perhaps prodded by the new poll, Tester issued a statement that said, “President Biden has got to prove to the American people — including me — that he’s up to the job for another four years.” Not exactly a call for Joe Biden to go, but he’s heading in that direction.
Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA), who continues to support Joe Biden, had maintained a solid lead ranging from 2 to 12 points over his Republican opponent, Dave McCormick, since polling began in this race. Now Casey is ahead of McCormick by a single point.
In Wisconsin, the RRG poll found Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) tied with Republican challenger Eric Hovde. However, a post-debate poll from Fabrizio-Anzalone shows Baldwin with a 5-point lead over Hovde.
RRG found former Arizona gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake, who has been trailing Arizona Rep. Ruben Gallego by 2 to 13 points, in a tie for the open Senate seat being vacated by Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ).
The RRG poll showed no change in Sen. Sherrod Brown’s (D-OH) bid to defend his seat against Republican Bernie Moreno. Brown is ahead by 5.2% in the RealClearPolitics average of polls.
Clearly, this is but one poll from a single pollster. But Democrats would be foolish to ignore the impact of their internecine struggles on down-ballot races.
CNN political analyst Ronald Brownstein warned Democrats that “[a] decisive loss at the top of the ticket could cost Democrats control of the U.S. Senate for the remainder of this decade.”
Brownstein explained that “it has grown increasingly difficult for Senate candidates in either party to win in states that usually vote for the other side in presidential contests. During the 2016 and 2020 election years, Republican Sen. Susan Collins of Maine was the only candidate, out of 69 total Senate races, who won in a state that voted the other way at the presidential level.”
He continues, “This year, Democrats are defending an unusually large concentration of Senate seats in states that now appear at risk for them in the presidential contest.” Conversely, “very few of the other Senate seats Republicans now hold are in states where Democrats have a realistic chance of winning, absent a dramatic change in their political balance.”
Additionally, there’s been a “dramatic decline” in split-ticket voting. Brownstein noted that “as recently as the 1980s, it was common for voters to split their tickets in Senate races.” Today, most voters favor straight-ticket voting.
Finally, Politico reported on Wednesday that “six Democratic advisers and operatives who work with donors” said donations from both big and small donors have slowed. According to these sources, “Some fundraisers have been canceled, while some donors have threatened to withhold donations until the president drops out.”
A political campaign can’t operate without donations. And this will also hurt down-ballot candidates who look to the party for funding.
University of Pennsylvania political scientist Daniel Hopkins summed up the situation quite bluntly in a recent post on X. “Democrats certainly cannot rely on the idea that Senate races will be decoupled from the presidential race, because they won’t,” he wrote.
Looks like “Ridin’ with Biden” will not be a winning strategy this year.
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Elizabeth Stauffer is a contributor to the Washington Examiner and the Western Journal. Follow her on X or LinkedIn.