The Chinese are often skillful manipulators of the European Union, leveraging trade to gain European political acquiescence to China on issues such as Taiwan, human rights, and intellectual property theft. With Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban now holding the rotating EU Council presidency, China’s closest European ally will set the high-level EU policy schedules for the next six months.
This bears note amid new Bloomberg reporting on how China is working with Russia to develop drones for Russian military use against Ukraine. While China insists ad infinitum that it is a neutral party to the conflict and wants a ceasefire, the reality is different. China does not want the conflict to escalate, but it does want its Russian partner able to bring the conflict to a quick pro-Moscow resolution.
Beijing certainly does not want a Western-supported democracy to show viability against a far greater autocratic military power next door. Where Russia’s victory would strengthen President Vladimir Putin and the Sino-Russian challenge to the post-1945 democratic order, Russia’s defeat would leave China with a diminished partner and facing a newly emboldened West. A West, Chinese President Xi Jinping fears, that might unite to disrupt his ambitions toward Taiwan.
Xi’s challenge rests on supporting Russia in a way that does not lead to major Western sanctions on China. The European Union and the United States have suggested that Chinese lethal aid to Russia would constitute their red line for sanctions action. Up until now, however, Xi has generally restricted his support for Russia to the provision of spare parts, machinery, and electronics and significantly increased energy imports.
With his drone collaboration, Xi is now markedly upping the ante. Unfortunately, it seems that the West is going to let him get away with it.
Consider this paragraph from Bloomberg’s report: “One person familiar with the matter said the U.S. assessment is China is weighing whether to send fully built unmanned aerial vehicles, but in the meantime is sending kits that can be converted into attack drones. The US still doesn’t conclude that China is sending lethal aid to Russia, the person said, while acknowledging that other nations may have a different interpretation.”
This follows related comments from British Defense Secretary Grant Shapps in May when he claimed “evidence that Russia and China are collaborating on combat equipment for use in Ukraine” and that “lethal aid is now, or will be, flowing from China to Russia and into Ukraine.” At the time, Shapps was smacked down by U.S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan who asserted, “We have not seen that to date,” adding derisively, “I look forward to speaking with the U.K. to make sure that we have a common operating picture.”
Top line: If the U.S. remains unwilling to describe as “lethal support” China’s sending to Russia of kits that can easily be reconstituted into drone weapons, Europe is highly unlikely to do so either. But the outcome will be felt clearly: China will empower Russia’s increased means of waging destruction on Ukrainian civilians, soldiers, and their country. And China will get away with doing so.
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This shouldn’t be acceptable. China has repeatedly been warned not to directly support Russia’s war effort. It can have no excuses if significant sanctions now follow.
But unless those sanctions are imposed, Xi will have every incentive to build upon his current trajectory. He will help Russia until he is either made to understand that the costs for China’s already sclerotic economy are too high or because Russia wins or loses.