The UK and Japan just boosted deterrence of China
Tom Rogan
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Striking a reciprocal military access agreement on Wednesday, the U.K. and Japan bolstered their joint deterrent posture against China. Although it is not a mutual defense treaty of the kind shared by the U.S. and Japan, it will be most valuable for its facilitation of rapid British military deployments to Japan in the event of a crisis — such as a Chinese attack on Taiwan, for example.
London says the agreement will “cement the U.K.’s commitment to Indo-Pacific security, allowing both forces to plan and deliver larger scale, more complex military exercises and deployments.”
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It is clear that Beijing’s threat is the motivation here. Facing a prospective Chinese attack on Taiwan, perhaps even within the 2023-2027 window, Japan is significantly improving its defenses. Tokyo is boosting defense spending toward 2% of GDP, bolstering anti-ship and land-attack missile stocks, and explicitly identifying China as the rationale for its urgent action. In December, the U.K., Japan, and Italy also announced a joint effort to develop a new sixth-generation fighter jet.
Yet the key advantage of this access agreement is that it will allow for both contingency planning and crisis deployments of U.K. forces to Japan. That matters because if the U.S. responds militarily to a Chinese attack on Taiwan, Japan would very likely join the U.S.-Taiwan war effort. Were the U.K. to do the same or contemplate such action, this agreement would enable a surge of U.K. military assets to Japan without the need for complex negotiations. It also allows U.K. and Japanese commanders to dramatically improve their contingency planning for such a scenario.
Even a limited deployment of U.K. military assets to Japan would be of allied benefit in anticipation of a war over Taiwan. Their number includes:
Royal Air Force Typhoon and F-35B fighter jets to U.S. bases on Okinawa (just 360 miles from Taiwan), alongside the U.K.’s JFAC mobile command unit. Elements of Britain’s offensive action-centered National Cyber Force. The Royal Navy’s Type-45 air defense destroyers and Astute-class attack submarines within U.S. or Japanese battlegroups. 30 Commando Information Exploitation Group, Royal Marines. British Army and Royal Navy special forces units to Taiwan for air controller action against People’s Liberation Army invasion forces or deep strikes against Chinese naval bases.
These assets could either be deployed to bolster the multinational deterrence of a prospective Chinese attack, or as part of the military effort to resist any attack. As long as they are well-supplied with munitions — a very open question considering woeful Western stockpiles — these U.K. units could provide significant benefit to any defensive action in the East China Sea.
This is not to say that such a U.K. deployment would necessarily occur. This agreement notwithstanding, U.K. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has, like France and Germany, recently signaled a willingness to appease China in order to attract Xi Jinping’s economic patronage.
Still, this U.K.-Japan agreement is a positive step in the right direction. Sunak and Kishida will rightly receive U.S. support for it.
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