The fun is just beginning for Kevin McCarthy
Frank Donatelli
Video Embed
After an excruciating 15 votes, Republicans have finally agreed, barely, and selected Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) as House speaker, the only Republican in Washington who apparently wanted the job. Good for him. He has fulfilled his lifelong ambition. That’s the good news.
The bad news is that this might be the best day McCarthy will have in the next two years. Running a fractious chamber with 435 members and with only a 10-vote majority would be challenging under the best of circumstances. And McCarthy does not have the best circumstances, given the time and effort expended on his election and the compromises he was forced to make to his right flank. Let’s count the ways McCarthy’s leadership and the GOP’s ability to govern will be tested in the next two years.
WHY NEW SPEAKER MCCARTHY SHOULD NOT DELIVER BIG CUTS TO DEFENSE
McCarthy agreed to restore the right of any one member to make a “motion to vacate the chair” which would require yet another election for speaker. This rule was used effectively to topple John Boehner back in 2015, which is why subsequent speakers eliminated it. We can expect the rule to be used whenever McCarthy takes action on anything that might anger a segment of the Republican members — and there will be plenty of such occasions.
McCarthy has reportedly made other compromises that dilute his powers as speaker, including putting more rebels on the all-important Rules Committee. How much difficulty will he have managing the flow of legislation and bringing important bills to the floor? There are things the House must tackle in the next two years. Republicans have railed against large year-end must-pass spending bills. These omnibus measures have been presented because Congress has not done its job in enacting individual appropriations bills. But enacting 13 individual bills takes talent, patience, and yes, compromise — three things in short supply among the Republican rebels. Will we be headed back to a catch-all spending bill and a possible government shutdown at the end of the year because the leadership is unable to navigate the appropriations process?
Congress prides itself on enacting the National Defense Authorization Act every year. This important legislation sets parameters and priorities for national defense spending and is critical for protecting America from enemies abroad and ensuring our freedoms. Will the isolationists in the House be empowered and emboldened to derail this critical legislation?
The federal government continues to spend far more than it takes in, resulting in large annual deficits. This is bad practice and bad policy but has continued unabated under Republican and Democratic presidents. To cover the shortfall, the government must borrow to pay its bills, which requires the U.S. to raise the debt ceiling. This is a difficult vote for members and thus represents an opportunity for politicians to make headlines by voting “no” or even sidetracking the debt vote itself. It should be obvious that putting the full faith and credit of the U.S. at risk would have ruinous consequences for the economy and threaten our standing in the world. McCarthy will have to convince enough members of his caucus to deal honestly with the debt ceiling. But then, any single member could move to vacate the chair and fire him for doing his duty.
We also have the blizzard of promised Republican investigations. Oversight, if performed in good faith by members seeking important information, is a good thing. However, McCarthy has endorsed many Republican investigations, including the workings of the Jan. 6 Committee, the American withdrawal from Afghanistan, the political bias of the FBI, COVID origins and Dr. Fauci, and of course, the Biden family, including Hunter Biden and his laptop. These investigations are sure to be accompanied by harsh words, accusations, and more than a few conspiracy theories. They also run the risk of eclipsing the legislative agenda of the House Republicans, which is already thin at best.
And of course, any majority whose members include Marjorie Taylor Greene, Lauren Boebert, Matt Gaetz, Paul Gosar, and many others can be counted on to regularly take rash actions and make incendiary statements that McCarthy will have to answer for.
House dysfunction will have major ramifications for 2024. Count on House performance to be a major focus of attacks by Senate Democrats and President Joe Biden. We have already seen the contrast, with Biden and Mitch McConnell jointly touting a long-delayed bridge project connecting Ohio and Kentucky at the same time House Republicans were grinding through yet another session to elect a speaker. Will America’s desire for normalcy run counter to the House Republicans’ stated goal of radically altering governing and legislative procedures?
CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER
In 1994, House Republicans were swept into power after 50 years in the minority. They were confident they could engage a weakened Bill Clinton and set the legislative agenda. But Speaker Newt Gingrich overplayed his hand by shutting down the government for months in 1995. Clinton deftly used the stalemate to attack eventual GOP nominee Bob Dole and frame the 1996 election as one of competence and continuity versus chaos. We can expect Democrats to frame 2024 in similar terms.
The next national election is a long way off, and McCarthy might surprise us by deftly managing his many challenges. Given his supporting cast and the hand he has dealt himself, that is unlikely. Kudos to the GOP for electing a speaker. But acting as a governing party, not a band of insurgents, will be a tall order.
Frank Donatelli is a former assistant to President Reagan for Political Affairs and deputy chairman of the RNC.