Russia’s ceasefire stunt deserves Ukraine’s disregard
Tom Rogan
Russian president Vladimir Putin has directed his military to observe a unilateral 36-hour ceasefire beginning midday Moscow time (4 p.m. U.S. EST) on Friday. Putin also called “on the Ukrainian side to declare a ceasefire” so that Ukrainians can attend Christmas Eve services. It is an Orthodox Christian tradition to celebrate Christmas on Jan. 7.
Ukraine should reject Putin’s overture and continue shaping operations towards a new counter-offensive. To adapt from Clausewitz, Putin’s gambit is simply a continuation of war by religious means.
Every day, Putin throws drones and missiles at Ukrainian cities in pursuit of maximal mayhem. He seeks to impose a destruction on Ukrainian civilian morale that he has been unable to impose on the Ukrainian military.
The Russian military’s deepening struggles in Ukraine are a far likelier motive for this ceasefire than any religious concern. After all, Russian forces face a bleak winter as they contend with incompetent commanders, depleted supplies and freezing temperatures.
Were Ukraine to support this ceasefire, Putin could lend his troops a short but significant morale boost. That would play well with a Russian public which is increasingly concerned over the war’s trajectory. Putin might also use Ukraine’s deference to the long 36-hour ceasefire window to re-position his forces without the need for thinly spread artillery or air cover.
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The notion that Putin would suddenly care for the sanctity of Ukrainian worship is ludicrous. Indeed, it is provably untrue. In 2018, the Russian Orthodox Church sought to delegitimize its Ukrainian brother church in retaliation over the latter’s move to insulate itself from Putin’s political machinations.
That brings us back to Patriarch Kirill, the leader of the Russian Orthodox Church, who first requested this ceasefire. Again, Kirill’s is a see-through Iconostasis. Befitting his former career as a KGB clandestine agent-priest, Kirill is a political operative far more than he is a religious leader. He holds his influential office not because he commands the moral and theological respect of the Orthodox faithful, but rather because he is a loyal Kremlin servant. But this is an office that comes with benefits. Kirill’s staff once airbrushed out an image of him wearing a $30,000 Breguet watch, for example. Sharp eyed Russians detected the watch’s reflection on a table Kirill was sitting at.
Kirill knows what time it is in Moscow and is always quick to lend religious cover to the boss. Considering Putin’s February invasion of Ukraine, for example, the Patriarch has repeatedly suggested that the war is justified for reasons including the need to rid homosexuality from Ukraine. Kirill’s war propaganda has seen him earn sanctions from the UK and other nations. He was only able to avoid European Union sanctions over the conflict due to the intervention of Putin’s EU pet, Viktor Orban.
Put simply, this isn’t a ceasefire, it’s a military ploy. Ukraine should treat it as such and maintain offensive pressure.
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