Conservative commentator and bestselling author Ben Shapiro drew the ire of both sides of the political aisle last week when he correctly pointed out that Social Security is a Ponzi scheme that is careening toward insolvency.
Pundits both on the Left and the Right who have made the decision to avoid the ultimate third rail of America’s politics at all costs chose to focus on Shapiro’s assertion that retirement itself is a bad idea for most workers. They did nothing to combat his objectively correct point that Social Security will be insolvent within a decade without radical and far-reaching reforms.
The Daily Wire host mentioned the history of Social Security, pointing out that America’s life expectancy in 1935 was 64, that number has now grown to 78, and originally, there were five workers funding the benefits of each Social Security recipient. Now only two workers fund the benefits of each senior receiving benefits. Raising the retirement age would be a start if the goal is to preserve our failing entitlement programs, but even in the unlikely event that Congress and the White House agree to such a measure, it would not be enough.
The overwhelming cost of entitlements, along with the near-$35 trillion national debt and record deficit and inflationary spending, will put the country’s economy in danger of collapse a lot sooner than either Democrats or Republicans would like to admit. The pundits “dunking” on Shapiro are doing their audiences zero favors. Economic realities don’t care about your feelings.
Fiscal conservatives and others who recognize that federal spending is imperiling future generations will point to the nation’s bloated and fraud-ridden defense budget and discretionary spending, specifically foreign aid, as areas where budget cuts would be prudent. But that misses the forest for the trees.
Defense spending, while itself out of control and in desperate need of an audit, makes up 12% of the federal budget. In fact, as of late 2023, the federal government spent more money on the interest payments on the national debt than it did on the entire defense budget, $870 billion to $822 billion, respectively, in 2024. Entitlements make up 55% of all federal spending, more than double the interest payments on the debt and the defense budget combined.
Medicare will be the first domino to fall. The trust supporting Medicare Part A will be insolvent as early as 2028, triggering massive cuts in benefits for tens of millions of people. Social Security is less than a decade from insolvency. The trust funds supporting the program will all be underwater by fiscal 2033, triggering a 25% reduction in benefits across the board, regardless of age, income, or need.
When these programs go belly-up, one of three scenarios will likely take place. One, there are massive reforms in an effort to save entitlements. Two, the programs cease to exist, or at the very least, they limp along, unable to provide the benefits promised to elderly taxpayers.
Or three, maybe the likeliest scenario, the government prints so much money propping up these failing programs that it sends the economy into a cycle of hyperinflation, which makes two grand per month from the state essentially irrelevant. Meanwhile, this makes it even more difficult, maybe impossible, to make the interest payments on the national debt, further degrading the nation’s credit and ability to take out more debt and perform the basic functions of government.
Either way, that sound you hear in the distance is a train — and it’s coming hard and fast.
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The leaders of both major parties have decided that the best course of action is to lie to the public and pretend that they don’t understand that their spending will cause immeasurable pain to their constituents. The pundits who support them, in an act of either great cowardice or ignorance, have chosen to go along with it.
Keep dunking on Shapiro and the few in the media who understand economics at your own peril. You will be forced to reassess your position sooner rather than later. Not that it means much now, but I would be remiss if I didn’t mention that it didn’t have to be this way.
Brady Leonard (@bradyleonard) is a musician, political strategist, and host of The No Gimmicks Podcast.