Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) is pulling out all the stops to save his majority and ensure Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) wins reelection by trying to elevate a Trump-endorsed candidate in Ohio.
On Tuesday, Ohio Republicans will go to the polls to select their nominee for Senate and determine who will face off against Brown in the November election. Three candidates are considered likely contenders: state Sen. Matt Dolan, businessman Bernie Moreno, and Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose.
With Brown the only Democrat to win a statewide election in Ohio since Obama won the state in 2012, the seat is crucial to any hopes Democrats have of retaining control of the Senate. So, a Schumer-tied super PAC has devoted $2.7 million to a last-minute ad buy seeking to boost Moreno as the GOP nominee, gambling that he is the more beatable candidate.
It’s a tactic that Schumer and Democrats used in 2022 with some success. But in a state like Ohio where Republicans comfortably win most statewide elections, Schumer’s gamble is likely to backfire and ensure a more conservative Republican wins the seat.
Moreno is the most conservative candidate in the race and enjoys the support of former President Donald Trump, who will top the ballot in November as the Republican presidential nominee. His main weakness is that he has limited statewide name recognition and has never held political office.
Unlike the moderate Dolan and the erratic LaRose, Moreno is campaigning on a populist message that will have more strong appeal to the white working class electorate of Ohio that delivered strong margins of victory in 2016 and 2020 to Trump. And with Trump atop the ticket and expected to win the state again in 2024, Brown’s path to another term through widespread ticket splitting is extremely narrow.
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Schumer, in boosting Moreno, is more likely to help Ohio elect a U.S. senator who is more aligned with the insurgent wing of the Republican Party, much like the state’s other senator, Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH), who has spent his first year in the Senate as the face of opposition to U.S. aid to Ukraine and disrupting the Republican establishment’s modus operandi.
If a Sen. Moreno comes to Washington, D.C., in January 2025 and damages Schumer’s ability to find allies among Republicans, he should think back to how he boosted the Ohio businessman in the Republican primary and helped make his own bed. Ohio, meanwhile, will be better served for it.