The “logic” at the core of the Democratic Party is that giving criminals no consequences for their actions won’t make crime worse. Unsurprisingly, that just keeps proving to be untrue.
A study from Data for Collaborative Justice, a pro-reform group, evaluated the arrest rates for criminals in upstate and suburban New York under the state’s bail reform law. It found that 66% of those with a criminal record who were released were arrested again within two years. It also found that 67% with a recent arrest for a violent felony were arrested again after release within two years of their arraignment, with almost half being rearrested for a felony.
In fact, the study admits that eliminating cash bail has “increased recidivism for people charged with nonviolent felonies, with recent criminal history, and with a recent violent felony arrest, while it decreased recidivism for people charged with misdemeanors and people with no recent criminal history.” (Emphasis original). In other words, felons, violent criminals, and career criminals have become emboldened while one-time criminals have not.
In a normal, reasonable world, the takeaway from this would be that cash bail for one-time nonviolent criminals is unnecessary but should be pursued for violent criminals, career criminals, or violent career criminals. But Democratic-run states such as New York are not reasonable on this topic, as has been demonstrated for the last several years both in New York City and in the rest of the state.
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Human behavior is complex in many respects, but in this one, it is not rocket science. Criminals who are violent or repeat offenders (or both) have no respect for other people, for the law, or for societal expectations of behavior. When they do not have to post bail, they have no skin in the game. When they are let loose right after being arrested and know they are facing weak sentences from weak pro-reform prosecutors, they are emboldened to continue their criminal behavior or even escalate it because they know they face little consequences if defunded police departments with officer shortages even manage to find them.
None of what has happened in New York is a surprise. Anyone who is not totally blinded by their pro-criminal “equity” ideology could have anticipated this. The only question left is whether New York Democrats were simply too delusional to predict that this would be the outcome of their bail reform policies or if they think this is simply the price everyone else should have to pay to fight against the phantom problems of “mass incarceration” or “systemic racism.”